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    Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

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    George1
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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:39 pm

    South Ossetia not to leave Georgia’s border provocations unanswered — representative

    The situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks

    TSKHINVAL, July 20 /TASS/. The Republic of South Ossetia will respond to any new Georgian provocations on the border with South Ossetia, Kokh Gogloity, the deputy envoy for the post-conflict settlement who heads the South Ossetian delegation at negotiations within the framework of Mechanisms of Prevention and Reaction to incidents, said on Monday.

    "In case of repeated provocations…along the state border with Georgia’s adjacent territory, the South Ossetian side will react accordingly if the incidents continue," he said.

    The situation on South Ossetia’s border with Georgia was a subject for discussion at an extraordinary session held within the framework of the Mechanisms for Prevention and Reaction to Incidents. It was held at the Ergnet populated locality in Georgia at the request of the South Ossetian side. It was attended by representatives of South Ossetia, Russia, Georgia, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

    It was noted that the situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks. The South Ossetian side has reported the incidents to the international monitors and co-chairmen of international organizations at the Geneva discussions for Security in South Caucasus many times.

    According to Gagloity, the co-chairmen of international organizations said they were ready to work for the sake of preserving peace in the region adding that any provocations did not contribute to regional stability.

    Earlier, the Georgian side accused the South Ossetian border guards of violating Georgia’s state border and alleged attempts to move the border marks deeper into the Georgian territory.


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    flamming_python
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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  flamming_python on Tue Jul 21, 2015 12:15 am

    George1 wrote:South Ossetia not to leave Georgia’s border provocations unanswered — representative

    The situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks

    TSKHINVAL, July 20 /TASS/. The Republic of South Ossetia will respond to any new Georgian provocations on the border with South Ossetia, Kokh Gogloity, the deputy envoy for the post-conflict settlement who heads the South Ossetian delegation at negotiations within the framework of Mechanisms of Prevention and Reaction to incidents, said on Monday.

    "In case of repeated provocations…along the state border with Georgia’s adjacent territory, the South Ossetian side will react accordingly if the incidents continue," he said.

    The situation on South Ossetia’s border with Georgia was a subject for discussion at an extraordinary session held within the framework of the Mechanisms for Prevention and Reaction to Incidents. It was held at the Ergnet populated locality in Georgia at the request of the South Ossetian side. It was attended by representatives of South Ossetia, Russia, Georgia, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

    It was noted that the situation on the border started aggravating since mid-February when unidentified persons opened fire at the South Ossetian territory and wrenched out South Ossetia’s border marks. The South Ossetian side has reported the incidents to the international monitors and co-chairmen of international organizations at the Geneva discussions for Security in South Caucasus many times.

    According to Gagloity, the co-chairmen of international organizations said they were ready to work for the sake of preserving peace in the region adding that any provocations did not contribute to regional stability.

    Earlier, the Georgian side accused the South Ossetian border guards of violating Georgia’s state border and alleged attempts to move the border marks deeper into the Georgian territory.

    If the Georgians try to move in for a Poroshenko strategy on South Ossetia than I dare say they will find themselves at a loss once the Russian arsenal in the Caucasus starts moving against them again.

    S. Ossetia has been recognized by Russia, is guarded by Russian forces, and to top it off - Russia has a defence treaty with it.

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    I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:13 pm

    I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Speaking very bluntly, Russia does not need these micro-states, it doesn't know what to do with them. It's more or less an accident that this all occurred at all, Russia was content with the frozen conflict and not recognizing them at all; hoping to entice Georgia to a political solution that would give Russia leverage and influence in the new Georgia.

    Well then Saakashvilli happened, and the Georgian war, and so on.

    I am the first to admit that Russia's policies towards Georgia have been rather clubfooted over the years; throwing Georgian migrants out of Russia over political disagreements, increasing ties with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia as 'revenge' for the West recognizing Kosovo, and so on.

    At the same time though, the Georgian war was not its fault, and neither are these separatist conflicts in the first place. Saakashvilli and Gamsakhurdia respectively, did more than anyone else in their time, to catapult uneasy situations into full-scale wars.

    I think what Georgia needs to do now is start by publicly apologizing to S. Ossetia for the recent war, and try to move towards reconciliation with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia over the events of 1991-1993 too. Which were far from one-sided, I know, but if Georgia wants to be the 'bigger brother' to these peoples then it should do so by being the bigger man and taking the first step. To do this it has to open contacts with the unrecognized leaderships of these republics.

    I also do not think that Russia will try to prevent this. It didn't try to prevent this before. I don't think it will do so now; if anything it will look upon it as an opportunity to move Georgia away from NATO and secure its southern flank, Georgia should capitalize on this.

    Joining NATO at this time of increasing Russia-NATO tensions would be a huge mistake. Tensions would rack-up twice more over what they are now, and we would move back to where the Cold War was in the 50s; with huge arsenals of armour and cruise missiles near the borders, walls, constant airspace violations, mutual accusations, large-scale military exercises and possibly the occasional incident. Truth be told, it can turn out even worse than that this time 'round.
    Under such conditions Russia will move to immediately stop any attempts of Georgia (by now a NATO member and thus NATO territory) to negotiate or do anything with Abkhazia or S.Ossetia, they will be fortified with large amounts of Russian troops, Georgia will be fortified with NATO troops and that will be that - new Berlin wall.

    So there it is. It might not be fair or whatever else but that's international politics. Georgia has a good chance of getting what it wants, but it has to play it smart and manuever carefully. Joining NATO will be an immediate game-over as far as any unification with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia goes.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  flamming_python on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:28 pm

    TheGeorgian wrote:When the Russian Federation is your physical enemy threatening your very existence and you're not very keen to be subjugated in the same manner you were for decades and centuries allready, no matter if as whole or merely politicaly and economicaly, you seek to approach the opposing force. It's a natural reaction because you fear for your life and want to survive, in one piece. I don't get why there isn't even some basic logical understanding to such consequences. Everything is like clouded, no room given for reasoning. We tried to approach Russia a million times with peaceful solutions. We literaly tried everything. What does Russia do ? pushes the fence a few kilometers further into uncotensted territory proper. Please people, that is not a solution. If the central highway is reached, it will mean war. Because no matter how weak we are, nobody will just sit idly and watch it's country being literaly split ahalf. We had our big mistake, called Saakashvili .... and no matter what the Russians did to provoke it or not, he started the August War. But this time around, there are not two parties actively provoking eachother. There is only ONE.

    Georgia does not present a threat to Russia, not in the next 5 years, not in the next 20 years. There won't ever be NATO bases in Georgia because NATO itself isn't that stupid. Georgia literaly has no prospect of joining NATO and will forever simply remain an allied nation if anything, even if we get the MAP in 2016, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

    Unfortunately all the information that filters down to us is pretty vague and the whole thing is opaque, it's very difficult to know who tried what.

    I am pretty sure that Saaka never tried to talk with the rebel leaderships, at least not in any way other than 'join us or else'

    Shevardnadze might have, he seemed like a very level-headed, pragmatic leader. But still, anything would have happened in secret, as officially, there are and were never any 'open' contacts with the Abkhazian and S.Ossetia leaderships, and this is a bad sign.

    I am not convinced that enough effort was put into this. I haven't heard of any trilateral meetings in a Georgia-S.Ossetia-Russia format for example; not in Saaka's time, not in Shevardnadze.
    I don't see why Russia would have blocked something like this, when we see for example that meetings in the format of Moldova-Pridnestrovie-Russia did take place in Moscow, and were in fact actively encouraged by Medvedev, albeit they didn't ultimately lead anywhere at the time.

    Medvedev in fact hinted at such a solution (confederation), in at least 1 interview after the war, when talking about options that Georgia could have aimed for in preference to war.

    As for after the war; I don't know what's been happening; I haven't seen any information about any Georgian efforts to establish dialogue with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia albeit it's logical that it might be trying to do so as now the military option is off the table for sure and this is the only chance left.
    Russia might very well be paranoid and so on now, but under the conditions where Georgia doesn't even have formal contacts with Russia right now, it's hard to talk about any sort of reconciliation process. Georgia should focus some effort on re-establishing ties, pouring some cold water on NATO for the time being, and showing that it is ready for dialogue with Moscow.
    I think once that's done, it will be possible for Georgia to move forward with contacting Abkhazia/S.Ossetia.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  SturmGuard on Fri Aug 28, 2015 8:51 pm

    Is the presence of Azerbaijani export pipelines near break-away reagions of S. Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh part of the geopolitic picture of the conflicts?

    Pardon my ignorance, but what went so wrong in the relations between Abkhaz, Ossetian and Georgian people to make the former side with Russia (why weren't they affected by narrative of Russian conqueror overlords that somehow spread elsewhere)?

    I always somehow felt bad for Georgians and Armenians, seeing their truly long presence in history since antiquity and subjugation to foreign powers during long periods.



    Yeah, the borders drawn by Bolsheviks in Caucasus are horrible, especially taking into account Ossetia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Couldn't Russia have acted more decisively and force a peaceful resolution of those conflicts? I mean, wars and crisis in immediate neighbourhood are never a good thing in my opinion. Or was Russia itself in so much trouble and without power and capability to influence anything?

    Thank you for your responses.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  ExBeobachter1987 on Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:18 pm

    SturmGuard wrote:Pardon my ignorance, but what went so wrong in the relations between Abkhaz, Ossetian and Georgian people to make the former side with Russia (why weren't they affected by narrative of Russian conqueror overlords that somehow spread elsewhere)?

    I always somehow felt bad for Georgians and Armenians, seeing their truly long presence in history since antiquity and subjugation to foreign powers during long periods.

    Because Moscow was seen as (reliable) counterweight and protector against Tbilisi's centralism/Georgian nationalism.
    When Georgia left the Union, they wanted to stay.

    SturmGuard wrote:Yeah, the borders drawn by Bolsheviks in Caucasus are horrible, especially taking into account Ossetia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Couldn't Russia have acted more decisively and force a peaceful resolution of those conflicts? I mean, wars and crisis in immediate neighbourhood are never a good thing in my opinion. Or  was Russia itself in so much trouble and without power and capability to influence anything?

    Thank you for your responses.

    Not after the Union fell and the South Caucasian republics became independent.
    Moscow did neither care enough nor was it willing to risk the alienation of one side.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  higurashihougi on Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:15 am

    First of all, please allow me to use the word "Gruzia". In our country, people and the state media use the word Gruzia instead of Georgia, but that has no derogatory mean. It is just a habit, no more, no less. We respect your nation and the usage of Gruzia does not mean to insult anyone. It is just a habit.

    TheGeorgian wrote:When the Russian Federation is your physical enemy threatening your very existence and you're not very keen to be subjugated in the same manner you were for decades and centuries allready, no matter if as whole or merely politicaly and economicaly, you seek to approach the opposing force.

    Yes. But that doesn't mean become a slave or a banana republic for the Western powers.

    Our Vietnamese has a saying: invite a leopard to counter the tiger and the two beasts will make a mess in your house. That is exactly what is happening in your country.

    That's why although we seek friendship and commercial relationship from the West, we never seek military help from the West as a mean to counter China. That is stupid and does not benefit anyone in the region.

    TheGeorgian wrote:It's a natural reaction because you fear for your life and want to survive, in one piece. I don't get why there isn't even some basic logical understanding to such consequences.

    Who can threaten your survival ?

    This is the 21st century and it is common sense to respect the independence and sovereignty of a nation. The reason why Russia can intervene in Ossetia and Abkhazia is because the local people are pro-Russia and pro-separatism. If these people are pro-Tbilisi, Russia can't intervene.

    But I see a lot of countries who want to turn Gruzia into a banana republic. For example someone in NATO.

    TheGeorgian wrote:Everything is like clouded, no room given for reasoning. We tried to approach Russia a million times with peaceful solutions. We literaly tried everything. What does Russia do ? pushes the fence a few kilometers further into uncotensted territory proper. Please people, that is not a solution. If the central highway is reached, it will mean war. Because no matter how weak we are, nobody will just sit idly and watch it's country being literaly split ahalf. We had our big mistake, called Saakashvili .... and no matter what the Russians did to provoke it or not, he started the August War. But this time around, there are not two parties actively provoking eachother. There is only ONE.

    Now you realize why Gruzia suffered a tragedy named Ossetia War ? Because Suckasshitvili stupidly waged a war with no hope of winning.

    Where was NATO when Gruzia needed it most ? Did NATO provided any help ? Or NATO just considered Gruzia as a mere pawn in the chessboard ?

    Lessons in Gruzia is one of the reasons why none of our Vietnamese want a war with China even in the wildest dream.

    TheGeorgian wrote:Georgia does not present a threat to Russia, not in the next 5 years, not in the next 20 years. There won't ever be NATO bases in Georgia because NATO itself isn't that stupid. Georgia literaly has no prospect of joining NATO and will forever simply remain an allied nation if anything, even if we get the MAP in 2016, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

    Gruzia will never pose a threat against Russia as long as they don't let the West sticks its nose into Gruzian affairs and turn Gruzia into a cannon fodder for the West.

    Please remember if Tbilisi considers Russia as a tiger, than NATO is a leopard. Tiger and Leopard are predators.

    But I bet after the tragedy in 2008 probably the Gruzian people has already realized it.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Sat Aug 29, 2015 12:30 pm

    flamming_python wrote:I agree about Georgia forming a confederacy with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Speaking very bluntly, Russia does not need these micro-states, it doesn't know what to do with them. It's more or less an accident that this all occurred at all, Russia was content with the frozen conflict and not recognizing them at all; hoping to entice Georgia to a political solution that would give Russia leverage and influence in the new Georgia.

    That is exactly why it wouldn't be so hard to restore unity as soon as Russia ceases it's sesession policy towards us and looses the tight control / influence on both regions. It just requires sitting down on a table. Nothing else. If that allready shows success in a strained situation, it does wonders in a peaceful environment.

    I am the first to admit that Russia's policies towards Georgia have been rather clubfooted over the years; throwing Georgian migrants out of Russia over political disagreements, increasing ties with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia as 'revenge' for the West recognizing Kosovo, and so on.

    just to name a few. The culmination is the current fence / "border" policy, which is also going for years now.

    At the same time though, the Georgian war was not its fault, and neither are these separatist conflicts in the first place. Saakashvilli and Gamsakhurdia respectively, did more than anyone else in their time, to catapult uneasy situations into full-scale wars.

    Which is why something like "national movements" should be legaly banned in any form of governing instances by decree. People have had enough. The only reason why Saakashvili's people are still in parliament, is because the US threatens us with sanctions if we don't "live up to democracy" and don't stop "political persecution" ( justice system working )

    I think what Georgia needs to do now is start by publicly apologizing to S. Ossetia for the recent war, and try to move towards reconciliation with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia over the events of 1991-1993 too. Which were far from one-sided, I know, but if Georgia wants to be the 'bigger brother' to these peoples then it should do so by being the bigger man and taking the first step. To do this it has to open contacts with the unrecognized leaderships of these republics.

    It needs more than that and I personaly would choose a time when we do reflect prospect. Besides tjhat, in the current circumstances Russia is not allowing it anyway. We tried again to restore at least some low level of communication and diplomacy in 2012-2013 but it is quite apparent to me that the governing administrations in both regions are simply not the respective people who should be representing the actual population of said regiosn. I think that's a fact. So basicaly we confront Russia again, instead of Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

    I also do not think that Russia will try to prevent this. It didn't try to prevent this before. I don't think it will do so now; if anything it will look upon it as an opportunity to move Georgia away from NATO and secure its southern flank, Georgia should capitalize on this.

    Russia is quite literaly physicaly preventing it. See border / fence policy.  

    Joining NATO at this time of increasing Russia-NATO tensions would be a huge mistake.

    Something that won't happen in near future, far future .... if at all to begin with. We are just "close allies", not even have the MAP yet ....

    Tensions would rack-up twice more over what they are now, and we would move back to where the Cold War was in the 50s; with huge arsenals of armour and cruise missiles near the borders, walls, constant airspace violations, mutual accusations, large-scale military exercises and possibly the occasional incident. Truth be told, it can turn out even worse than that this time 'round.
    Under such conditions Russia will move to immediately stop any attempts of Georgia (by now a NATO member and thus NATO territory) to negotiate or do anything with Abkhazia or S.Ossetia, they will be fortified with large amounts of Russian troops, Georgia will be fortified with NATO troops and that will be that - new Berlin wall.

    If NATO truly wanted and was willing to go that far, it would have allready done years before Saakashvili came to power. Even after 2008 and recent events, NATO is on the lowest level of relationship with Georgia as the alliance can be. What has been done formaly since 2003 ? tell me. Absolutly nothing has changed formaly. All the sweet and prospective talk and promises. It's just words. Russia is literaly overreacting to mere words. When I talk to people, they still believe in the rubbish which was floating around the 2008 conflict, that Russia was basicaly fighting NATO / Georgia equipped with modern NATO weapons etc .... it's just so silly ....  Speaking of weapons ...... and what exactly is Russia's objection ? we've been denied the most basic defensive assets a nation must have to defend it's airspace, land and sea, which we would have paid from our own wallet as far as we can. Only now, we are finaly allowed to merely trade with NATO nations to be able to buy weapons from them. We have nations on this planet that disagree and even fight against all the principles of the West / NATO / EU / US and yet receive tons of armament every month from countries like Germany. The Georgian armed forces have began the process of modernisation not earlier than 2011 .... 2011. Countries such as Armenia and Azerbaijan are far better armed and equipped to defend themselves than we are within the next 5 years minimum. That is literaly all. What Nato, Where Nato. Seriously. Russias overreaction to everything is the very reason why Georgia tries to join NATO out of frustration, not because it likes to piss off it's giant neighbour for shits and giggles. All the time we talk and lecture on how Georgia should behave and find an approach. How about Russia putting some efforts as well. Then convince us that you're the better alternative to NATO. How about that ?

    So there it is. It might not be fair or whatever else but that's international politics. Georgia has a good chance of getting what it wants, but it has to play it smart and manuever carefully. Joining NATO will be an immediate game-over as far as any unification with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia goes.

    I believe that as well, which is why I quite frankly am against joining NATO, just to give one reason of several. I personaly think all nations of the entire region should come to peaceful terms with eachother and there should be a regional defence coalition which would neither be pro-West nor pro-East, but still a huge buffer and independent force between Russia and NATO / Turkey. Or another solution would be Russia as big protecting force of that coalition. However that region or those nations have to be allowed self-determination. Policy, economy etc without any form of active inteference and involvment neither intimidation from any side. Just give and receive in a fair manner. Only control-fanatics would object such an idea.

    I am pretty sure that Saaka never tried to talk with the rebel leaderships, at least not in any way other than 'join us or else'

    There were efforts from ministers like Alasania who were in Abkhazia several times and had positive dialogue with the Abkhazian leadership but then again, those were undermined constantly by the political developments between Georgia and Russia.

    Shevardnadze might have, he seemed like a very level-headed, pragmatic leader. But still, anything would have happened in secret, as officially, there are and were never any 'open' contacts with the Abkhazian and S.Ossetia leaderships, and this is a bad sign.

    I am not convinced that enough effort was put into this. I haven't heard of any trilateral meetings in a Georgia-S.Ossetia-Russia format for example; not in Saaka's time, not in Shevardnadze.
    I don't see why Russia would have blocked something like this, when we see for example that meetings in the format of Moldova-Pridnestrovie-Russia did take place in Moscow, and were in fact actively encouraged by Medvedev, albeit they didn't ultimately lead anywhere at the time.

    Well that isn't quite true. There were meeting. Between Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-South Ossetia, but then again Russia would be the high father to dictate the general policy of both regions and to Georgia's disatisfaction the results wouldn't be any progressive while initialy there seemed to be very prospective plans. See Sochi Agreement from 2003. True, Saakashvili's arrival was a bummer, but you gotta keep your promises.

    Medvedev in fact hinted at such a solution (confederation), in at least 1 interview after the war, when talking about options that Georgia could have aimed for in preference to war.

    but as of when ? .... in the 90s ? just before 2008 ? suggesting such options is allways convenient, especialy from the side that is undermining such efforts in first place.

    As for after the war; I don't know what's been happening; I haven't seen any information about any Georgian efforts to establish dialogue with Abkhazia/S.Ossetia albeit it's logical that it might be trying to do so as now the military option is off the table for sure and this is the only chance left.
    Russia might very well be paranoid and so on now, but under the conditions where Georgia doesn't even have formal contacts with Russia right now, it's hard to talk about any sort of reconciliation process. Georgia should focus some effort on re-establishing ties, pouring some cold water on NATO for the time being, and showing that it is ready for dialogue with Moscow.
    I think once that's done, it will be possible for Georgia to move forward with contacting Abkhazia/S.Ossetia.

    I can't see into their doings, but fact is several things have improved, like lifting the ban on Georgian water, wine etc and also commercial flights. So dialogue seems to be going in a progressive direction. But I probably have to rephrase that. Because at the same time we got the fence / border policy. That borderisation and absorbing of more and more uncontested lands to the point where the main highway is almost reached, so that is happening and everything has it's limit you know even for a nation that can't properly defend itself. But at least it's been constantly monitored this time and the entire world has it's eyes on it.


    Last edited by TheGeorgian on Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  GarryB on Sat Aug 29, 2015 1:20 pm

    Burrying the hatchet with neither the Abkhazians nor the Ossetians does present any special or very difficult hurdle in that respect if the doors for talks and rehabilitation were open. That is a fact. It has been done before and it has been proven very succesful. Despite what happened and it would work even better despite recent events. But they are kept closed, forcefuly. Nowdays these two regions present nothing but huge isolated ( to us ) Russian military bases with fences stretched along the DMZ in an effort to undermine any sort of rapprochement and convergence. Nobody should have illusions. People are not stupid. No matter how much you try to influence their thinking. They know what is going on, when they are played and what political role or significance they have.

    Well isn't that to be expected?

    If you rape someone do you expect them to suddenly want to become part of your family?

    You pretty much have two options... one is a path that will lead away from unification with Abkhazia and South Ossetia... that path leads to NATO and future confrontation against Russia. The other path would be to remain independent... if Russia wanted Tiblisi it could have taken it in 2008... it doesn't want to occupy Georgia.

    The problem is that the path to unification has been made much longer by the actions of saakash"villan" in 2008.

    So the two choices are a couple of decades with unification and good relations with Russia, or a couple of decades to NATO membership and bad relations with Russia and likely no chance of South Ossetia or Abkhazia returning to being parts of georgia.

    In fact NATO membership will likely lead to both regions voting ala Crimea to join the Russian Federation.

    Maybe because it's today, a different time. Far from 1991 when the wounds were still fresh and one couldn't bear "loosing" so much ? - wishful thinking. Does Russia bear to have "lost" so much, now ? as a matter of fact they don't. The general mentality is still anchored in the past. NATO was not the reason in the 90s and I can assure you, things haven't changed nowdays. Can anyone here disagree on that ? please prove me wrong. I'd be glad to be proven wrong on this. Really.

    I mean sure, Saakashvili happened ..... but was it any different before ? was it any different afterwards ? No and no.

    Are you trying to say reunification was never possible and therefore murdering the South Ossetians in 2008 meant nothing?

    Russia is hostile to Georgia because Georgia made it so by violating a peace treaty and murdering their paratroopers and men and lots of South Ossetians.

    In other words Georgian actions have created hostility. Georgia joining NATO will not be a solution, though obviously it is completely Georgias choice.

    The thing is that NATO is a solution looking for a problem.

    Georgia joining NATO wont save Georgia from Russian retaliation if Georgia tries to invade South Ossetia or Abkhazia, and you would have to be an idiot to think Russia wants to invade Georgia.

    The US wants bases close to Russia... that is why they want Georgia to join NATO... but all Georgia gets out of this is a very hostile neighbour.

    What do you think would be a reasonable solution for Russia if NATO wasn't involved anymore ? do you think they'd give up their bases in Abkhazia and "South Ossetia", pull out their troops and allow all 3 parties to sit togheter at a table and find peaceful solutions to deal with all question ? - I don't know, seems like wishful thinking. People tried approaching and talking to eachother increasingly the last couple years, before the fences were constructed. So practicaly every time there is energy put into such efforts, there is a frightened and regressive reaction from Russia.

    A good start would be Saakashvillians head on a stick.

    But this time around, there are not two parties actively provoking eachother. There is only ONE.

    So you want to join NATO AND be friends with Russia?

    You want US military bases on your territory but no Russian bases anywhere nearby?

    Sounds like you are not telling the whole story.

    If you did to the US what you did to Russia in 2008 there would have been regime change in Georgia.

    There won't ever be NATO bases in Georgia because NATO itself isn't that stupid.

    US bases might as well be NATO bases as NATO is the stormtrooper of US ambitions.

    Georgia literaly has no prospect of joining NATO and will forever simply remain an allied nation if anything, even if we get the MAP in 2016, which is unlikely to happen anyway.

    Even just trying to join is pushing Russia away and telling them you are an enemy.

    As Flaming python mentions... Russia doesn't need more land and is not interested in expanding its empire to include SO or Abkhazia or Georgia... if they wanted that they could have.... Saakashvillian gave them the perfect opportunity if that was their goal.

    Look at all the things in the Russian military alone that were made in the Ukraine... that wasn't because the Ukrainian product was better... the Russians could easily have spent a bit of money and produced everything domestically in new modern factories. They kept buying Ukrainian bits and pieces to help the Ukrainian economy.

    It was not Russia that cut off ties with the Ukraine it is the Ukraine and the west using economic and political sanctions against Russia.

    These are the sort of people you want to hitch your horse to?

    It is your choice but I have spelled out where that path goes.... Russia might not want South Ossetia or Abkhazia, but if the alternative is to let NATO build bases there they would be fools to step back and do nothing.

    Georgia trying to join NATO makes Russia want to do the opposite of what Georgia wants them to do and will increase hostility of Russia towards Georgia.

    Now ask yourself... does Georgia really want SO and AbK back or does it just like to wind up the bear...

    Either way Georgia has to do a bit of grovelling for the death and destruction it caused... offering compensation to the victims would be a good start and a nice gesture... but really you need to talk to the governments of the two regions to find out what they want instead of making it all about Russia.


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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  TheGeorgian on Sat Aug 29, 2015 11:49 pm

    Burrying the hatchet with neither the Abkhazians nor the Ossetians does present any special or very difficult hurdle in that respect if the doors for talks and rehabilitation were open. That is a fact. It has been done before and it has been proven very succesful. Despite what happened and it would work even better despite recent events. But they are kept closed, forcefuly. Nowdays these two regions present nothing but huge isolated ( to us ) Russian military bases with fences stretched along the DMZ in an effort to undermine any sort of rapprochement and convergence. Nobody should have illusions. People are not stupid. No matter how much you try to influence their thinking. They know what is going on, when they are played and what political role or significance they have.

    If you rape someone do you expect them to suddenly want to become part of your family?

    Follow the context please. That aside, there was no "rape" nor is that - for a millenias long livetogheter - a "sudden" event. Calling a little and short proxy war which sadly happened to have a tolerable civilian death toll on both sides considering the circumstances and potential of full scale conflict, is not only inapropriate but almost an insult. Not only because of the specific events and losses on both sides but especialy considering the last wars, which had entire populations massacred by the thousands and almost a quarter million displaced. On the Georgian side atrocities were at least commited by armed formations made of criminals who didn't care if their victims were Abkhaz, Georgians, Russians or Greek and those were all outlawed and disbanded, while their leaders got hunted down and prosecuted. Almost all of them escaped to Russia btw. On the other side the Abkhaz are still today celebrating their mass murderers as war heroes. You people are very quick to ignore such things and go blindly one sided, than be like surprised when there is little agreement.

    In fact NATO membership will likely lead to both regions voting ala Crimea to join the Russian Federation.

    The more Russia tries to forcefully achieve that, the more such a possibility is completly ruled out. Entirely different cases / worlds. Can't draw analogues to Crimea.


    Russia is hostile to Georgia because Georgia made it so by violating a peace treaty and murdering their paratroopers and men and lots of South Ossetians.

    Russia has been politicaly and physicaly hostile to Georgia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. What happened in 2008 was Saakashvili's stupidity to give Russia a valid reason for military intervention. "Murdering" does not apply to two opposing forces combating eachother. I still haven't seen any proof that the Russian garrison in Tskhinvali acted completly out of self defence and the Georgians simply thought it was a good idea to open fire on them and destroy the base. I personaly am convinved as soon as hostilities started between Georgian and Ossetian troops, the Russian MC provided fire support for the Ossetians, thus provoking attention from the Georgians. I've heard the official briefing which concluded that Georgian troops acted out of self defence coming under fire from the barracks. I have also heard the Russian version of that story. There are video tapes, none of them show how it all started. I naturaly also don't know what went down and I am not supporting the Georgian version because I am Georgian and thus obliged to believe only the Georgian version, but for me it makes more sense, be it tactical or just because of common sense. For the soldiers who took part in that conflict it is just a tragedy anyway.

    Georgia joining NATO wont save Georgia from Russian retaliation if Georgia tries to invade South Ossetia or Abkhazia, and you would have to be an idiot to think Russia wants to invade Georgia.

    The idea of joining NATO is not to be able to recapture both regions .... but to have some protection against Russia.

    Russia is physicaly invading Georgia as we speak by constantly expanding the imaginary "border" it is drawing through our country almost splitting it ahalf.

    Saakashvili not being the president of Georgia anymore / or nationals not leading Georgia anymore, is the sole reason why things aren't escalating right now. Other nations would have allready resorted to defensive measures. The current leadership simply doesn't deploy troops because it would mean recognizing any borders. That's why nothing is happening.

    The US wants bases close to Russia... that is why they want Georgia to join NATO... but all Georgia gets out of this is a very hostile neighbour.

    Again, nothing would / could have stopped the US from doing that and also put Georgia into NATO if they wanted to.

    They allready got Turkey which is very close to Russia. Closer than any other NATO nation. That is allready more than enough for the USA and in particular NATO Europe.

    So you want to join NATO AND be friends with Russia?

    You want US military bases on your territory but no Russian bases anywhere nearby?

    Sounds like you are not telling the whole story.

    Funny you say that. The whole story is that we had Russian bases on our territory for decades and they were still active until just "recently" ( the last base in Georgia proper got closed in 2007 ) and now there are 2 expanded Russian army bases on our two contested regions. Do you see a single NATO base in Georgia, anywhere ? - nope. That's pretty much the whole story. Correct me if I am wrong.

    US bases might as well be NATO bases as NATO is the stormtrooper of US ambitions.

    US bases = NATO bases

    but how do you see US bases in Georgia ? that is even far less likely to ever happen.

    Even just trying to join is pushing Russia away and telling them you are an enemy.

    We are running in circles here. You know the reasons for the entire situation.


    If you did to the US what you did to Russia in 2008 there would have been regime change in Georgia.

    As Flaming python mentions... Russia doesn't need more land and is not interested in expanding its empire to include SO or Abkhazia or Georgia... if they wanted that they could have.... Saakashvillian gave them the perfect opportunity if that was their goal.

    Saakashvili gave Putin the perfect opportunity for several political / military agendas. He pretty much served it to him on a silver plate. Georgia's total annexion was an option in 2008 which was considered but simply not agreed on because it would have been a step too far. Almost all of Georgia's major cities got captured and most military bases destroyed. Only pressure from the internaional community prevented more damage and deeper incursion. Parts that were under Georgian control since the 90s got completly taken and are now sealed away by fence installations. So that is debunked by default. Other than that, sure if Moscow wanted they could have taken Tbilisi as well and changed the regime. But they didn't dare to go that far as much as Putin wanted to hang Saakashvili by the balls. Especialy not with all the international shitstorm. You can take parts of a nation, but not simply take an entire country. Not these days anymore.

    These are the sort of people you want to hitch your horse to?

    No. The truth told, I'd rather have a friendly neighbourhood around me and good relations with Russia than loosing my identity completly in that mess that is EU. If EU offered some fairness, balance and prospect even Russia would have joined in. But Russia on the other hand does also not offer any prospect in it's current condition. We need something to elevate us from 3rd world status to worth living. Right now, Russia itself has more than enough problems to fully achieve that.

    Either way Georgia has to do a bit of grovelling for the death and destruction it caused... offering compensation to the victims would be a good start and a nice gesture... but really you need to talk to the governments of the two regions to find out what they want instead of making it all about Russia.

    I can only repeat what I've allready said earlier. Something like that wouldn't be a problem. At all. But it simply is all about Russia. If Russia doesn't stop dictating the terms and what those people have to say in accordance of the general policy against us, peaceful talks and solutions are more than just doable. It's all in Russia's hands.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:48 am

    Abkhazia remembering fellow-countrymen missing since war with Georgia

    The plight of more than 150 fighters of Abkhazian armed units and peaceful civilians is still unknown even more than twenty years

    SUKHUM, August 30. /TASS/. People in Abkhazia are remembering their fellow-countrymen who went missing during the Georgian-Abkhazian war of 1992-1993.

    Members of the public movement called Abkhazian Mothers for Peace and Social Justice, relatives of the missing, veterans, and public activists came to the Memorial to the Fallen Fighters in Sukhum’s Park of Glory on Sunday to lay flowers.

    At 20:00 hours local time, candles were lit on the embankment opposite the Sukhum Drama Theater where a fountain in memory of the missing was installed four years ago.

    Abkhazia has an immediate relationship to the International Day of the Disappeared, which is marked on August 30. The plight of more than 150 fighters of Abkhazian armed units and peaceful civilians is still unknown even more than twenty years after the end of hostilities.

    Until 2013, nothing was known about practically all the persons who disappeared during the war. Their family members and friends would come to the Park of Glory and lay flowers at the tombs of unknown soldiers where 43 unidentified bodies had been buried.

    "Thanks to support from the International Committee of the Red Cross, the fate of 36 fighters is known today," a spokesperson for the Abkhazian government’s commission for the missing told TASS. "They turned out to be among the 43 individuals, whose remains were exhumed in the Park of Glory in June 2013."

    "The identities of seven individuals were established in December 2013, fourteen others in February, June and December 2014 and fifteen more, in May 2015," he said. "Most of them died in the course of the March and July, 1993, operations to free Sukhum from the troops, which reported to the Georgian State Council.

    The identification became possible thanks to the special procedures held under the auspices of the International Red Cross in a laboratory in Zagreb.

    The problem of a search for the missing is one of the items discussed at the Geneva consultations on security and stability in South Caucasus that involve Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the UN.

    In 2013, Georgia and Abkhazia launched a Coordination Mechanism to Find Possible Burial Places of the Missing. These efforts draw on support from the Red Cross.


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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Godric on Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:24 am

    Pathetic stuff if true from America

    https://www.rt.com/op-edge/318173-georgia-russia-ossetia-icc-crimes/

    West tries to make a Serbia out of Russia

    Putin calls the West’s bluff on fighting ISIS in Syria. Western elite figures are most unhappy. The Empire badly needs to strike a blow at Russia – and right on cue, the issue of ‘war crimes’ in Georgia miraculously comes to the fore!


    This Thursday it was announced that the International Criminal Court was planning to investigate possible crimes committed during the conflict between Georgia and Russia in 2008.

    Reuters reports: ‘the court said that Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda had concluded there was a “reasonable basis to believe” crimes had been committed during the short war over the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia.”


    “A favorable decision by the judges would pit non-ICC member Russia versus the European-backed global war crimes court at a time of high East-West tensions over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria,” says Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    Now, it could be that the timing of this is a total coincidence. That it just so happened that over seven years after the events in question, the ICC decided to make a statement on Georgia, in the same week that the Western elites were fuming over Russia out-maneuvering them in Syria and leaving their ‘regime change’ plans for Damascus in tatters.


    ETC ETC


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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Werewolf on Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:17 pm

    Godric wrote:Pathetic stuff if true from America

    https://www.rt.com/op-edge/318173-georgia-russia-ossetia-icc-crimes/

    West tries to make a Serbia out of Russia

    Putin calls the West’s bluff on fighting ISIS in Syria. Western elite figures are most unhappy. The Empire badly needs to strike a blow at Russia – and right on cue, the issue of ‘war crimes’ in Georgia miraculously comes to the fore!


    This Thursday it was announced that the International Criminal Court was planning to investigate possible crimes committed during the conflict between Georgia and Russia in 2008.

    Reuters reports: ‘the court said that Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda had concluded there was a “reasonable basis to believe” crimes had been committed during the short war over the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia.”


    “A favorable decision by the judges would pit non-ICC member Russia versus the European-backed global war crimes court at a time of high East-West tensions over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria,” says Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    Now, it could be that the timing of this is a total coincidence. That it just so happened that over seven years after the events in question, the ICC decided to make a statement on Georgia, in the same week that the Western elites were fuming over Russia out-maneuvering them in Syria and leaving their ‘regime change’ plans for Damascus in tatters.


    ETC ETC


    Pha, what war crimes? In 5 days of war? How much war crimes could russia committ in 5 days what US did to dozen countries in decades?

    Even if russia would use one nuke on each day against civilian cities it would still have less atrocities against civilians than US did with conventional "unintentional" warfare in Afghanistan or Iraq.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Rodinazombie on Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:28 pm

    Werewolf wrote:
    Godric wrote:Pathetic stuff if true from America

    https://www.rt.com/op-edge/318173-georgia-russia-ossetia-icc-crimes/

    West tries to make a Serbia out of Russia

    Putin calls the West’s bluff on fighting ISIS in Syria. Western elite figures are most unhappy. The Empire badly needs to strike a blow at Russia – and right on cue, the issue of ‘war crimes’ in Georgia miraculously comes to the fore!


    This Thursday it was announced that the International Criminal Court was planning to investigate possible crimes committed during the conflict between Georgia and Russia in 2008.

    Reuters reports: ‘the court said that Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda had concluded there was a “reasonable basis to believe” crimes had been committed during the short war over the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia.”


    “A favorable decision by the judges would pit non-ICC member Russia versus the European-backed global war crimes court at a time of high East-West tensions over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria,” says Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    Now, it could be that the timing of this is a total coincidence. That it just so happened that over seven years after the events in question, the ICC decided to make a statement on Georgia, in the same week that the Western elites were fuming over Russia out-maneuvering them in Syria and leaving their ‘regime change’ plans for Damascus in tatters.


    ETC ETC


    Pha, what war crimes? In 5 days of war? How much war crimes could russia committ in 5 days what US did to dozen countries in decades?

    Even if russia would use one nuke on each day against civilian cities it would still have less atrocities against civilians than US did with conventional "unintentional" warfare in Afghanistan or Iraq.

    The USA is acting like a spoilt, petulant little child. It doesnt know what to do so its wailing its arms around, flinging its toys everywhere not realising it just shit itself and is sitting in its own excrement.

    These tantrums will come to nothing, i wouldnt even worry about it. Even europe is starting to distance itself from american nonsense.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Godric on Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:23 pm

    Rodinazombie wrote:
    Werewolf wrote:
    Godric wrote:Pathetic stuff if true from America

    https://www.rt.com/op-edge/318173-georgia-russia-ossetia-icc-crimes/

    West tries to make a Serbia out of Russia

    Putin calls the West’s bluff on fighting ISIS in Syria. Western elite figures are most unhappy. The Empire badly needs to strike a blow at Russia – and right on cue, the issue of ‘war crimes’ in Georgia miraculously comes to the fore!


    This Thursday it was announced that the International Criminal Court was planning to investigate possible crimes committed during the conflict between Georgia and Russia in 2008.

    Reuters reports: ‘the court said that Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda had concluded there was a “reasonable basis to believe” crimes had been committed during the short war over the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia.”


    “A favorable decision by the judges would pit non-ICC member Russia versus the European-backed global war crimes court at a time of high East-West tensions over the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria,” says Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

    Now, it could be that the timing of this is a total coincidence. That it just so happened that over seven years after the events in question, the ICC decided to make a statement on Georgia, in the same week that the Western elites were fuming over Russia out-maneuvering them in Syria and leaving their ‘regime change’ plans for Damascus in tatters.


    ETC ETC


    Pha, what war crimes? In 5 days of war? How much war crimes could russia committ in 5 days what US did to dozen countries in decades?

    Even if russia would use one nuke on each day against civilian cities it would still have less atrocities against civilians than US did with conventional "unintentional" warfare in Afghanistan or Iraq.

    The USA is acting like a spoilt, petulant little child. It doesnt know what to do so its wailing its arms around, flinging its toys everywhere not realising it just shit itself and is sitting in its own excrement.

    These tantrums will come to nothing, i wouldnt even worry about it. Even europe is starting to distance itself from american nonsense.

    their severe butthurt is making them look for every and any reason to throw mud at ?Russia as they have been found with their pants down again ... like when the polite green men took Crimea peacefully will leaving America and Nato in the dark

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Werewolf on Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:56 pm

    I think the problem with the US and their attempt and struggle for one NWO is that they played and planned their road based on submissive countries that all at some point by now should eat what US shits without  a single word, but now they are struggling to adjust to the countermeasures against their foreign policy what the BRICS are doing to their economy, by simply unleashing their submissive slave status in economics and are taking slowly over. They act like a beheaded chicken and decide their short term tactics based on which spot (tactic) the beheaded chicken stops moving to react to BRICS and Russias actions.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  kvs on Sat Oct 10, 2015 3:27 pm

    If the ICC does not indict the Georgian government of Suckasshvilli then it will prove itself a kangaroo court joke.

    Recall that there was a surprise attack on the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvalli, at midnight August 8, 2008 (8/8/Cool
    by Suckasshvilli's forces with artillery and MLRS barrages. During the course of this ethnic cleansing campaign that
    had a short life thanks to Russian intervention over 2000 Ossetians died.

    What are these "war crimes" by Russia that the ICC does not explicitly outline? The ICC better follow the "collateral damage"
    precedent of the USA.

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  GarryB on Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:09 pm

    It will be clear what sort of verdict they will come to when they describe the events leading up to the invasion...

    Was it georgian forces heroically shelling the South Ossetian capital because the Russians were invading.... ????

    Or if it was a Russian intervention to stop georgian shelling of the South Ossetian capital.... I suspect they will come out with the former...


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    ― Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  Cyberspec on Sun Dec 20, 2015 4:27 am

    Russia and Abkhazia are to complete the formation of the combined army group by the end of 2018

    Abkhazia parliament ratifies agreement with Russia on combined army group
    http://tass.ru/en/defense/845265

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:49 am

    Referendum on South Ossetia joining Russia russia should be held in special way — leader

    More:
    http://tass.ru/en/world/857966


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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  higurashihougi on Sat Feb 20, 2016 10:21 am

    Crum version 2 Cool can't wait Cool Cool

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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:06 am

    Georgia's Refusal to Sign Peace Deal Reveals Revanchist Policy - Abkhaz FM

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160317/1036437385/georgia-abkhazia-ossetia-peace-deal.html#ixzz4395EWlRl


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    Re: Abkhazia and S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

    Post  George1 on Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:04 pm

    South Ossetia plans to revive republic’s historical name of Alania

    More:
    http://tass.com/world/910410


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