Russian Economy General News: #13

Trollstoy
@Trollstoy88
"The foreign trade surplus in Russia soared for more than 1,6 times year-on-year and amounted to $282,3 bln in 2022," the Central Bank of Russia reported on Tuesday.

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The resilience of the Russian economy is really impressive.... I think any other country, excluding China, would have turned to dust with that amount of sanctions...
And with the import substitution program, the trend is for the trade balance to get bigger and bigger...

China is now mutually dependent from the west, so also the west cannot detach from them in less than 5 years without encourring serious problems.

Russian Tetra Pak helped restart domestic packaging production, 01.22.2023.

Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko said that the Russian division of the Swedish company Tetra Pak is involved in the production of packaging, helping to restart domestic production.

It is reported by RIA Novosti .

“They behave in a very complementary manner, helping to find all the necessary solutions,” Abramchenko said.

At the same time, she noted that some domestic producers still have problems due to the lack of packaging. So, for example, tea and coffee producers have a need for filter paper, canned food manufacturers need rings for cans.

“It is important to bring food manufacturers and manufacturers of related materials and packaging into a single chain,” the Deputy Prime Minister added.

Earlier, Rosstandart commented on the situation with the work of Tetra Pak in Russia .

There have also been reports of a possible opening of new stores this spring in place of Inditex outlets.

https://russian.rt.com/russia/news/1100740-rossiya-upakovka-tetrapak

Further details.
Since Tetra Pak is a Swedish company, this is the first initiative of breaking patent rights by Russia. Further initiatives should follow with enemy countries:

Tetra Pak helped restart domestic packaging production, 01.23.2023.

Abramchenko: Russian Tetra Pak helped restart domestic packaging production.

MOSCOW, January 23 - RIA Novosti. The Russian division of the Swedish company Tetra Pak takes part in the production of packaging, helping to restart domestic production, Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

The Russian authorities have repeatedly spoken about problems with the packaging of food manufacturers, including in connection with the increase in prices for it. The problem has aggravated due to the departure or change of the format of presence in the Russian market of the largest foreign packaging manufacturers - the Norwegian company Elopak (Pure-Pak brand), Tetra Pak, and the American Ball Corporation. In particular, in March, dairy enterprises notified the Ministry of Industry and Trade of possible supply disruptions due to a shortage of packaging made from imported materials.

"Tetra Pak, its Russian division, to be more precise, is taking part in this experiment, they behave very complementary, help to find all the necessary solutions. Back in June it was really an experiment, but now it is already the industrial use of cardboard as the basis for packaging for children nutrition — 200 milliliter packages for juices and dairy products," Abramchenko said in response to a question about the stage at which the first experiments on the production of domestic packaging are now.

According to the vice-premier, the work has been set up, but a number of other issues have come to light in parallel. So, for example, tea and coffee manufacturers need filter paper, tea bag strings, canned food manufacturers need rings for cans, and so on.

"It is important to bring food producers and manufacturers of related materials and packaging into a single chain. <...> Colleagues from the relevant departments are now compiling roadmaps for each area to make it easier to solve problems either through parallel imports or through supplies from friendly countries, or through production within the country, if it is cost-effective to create new production due to the capacity of the domestic market," Abramchenko concluded.

In July parent company Tetra Pak announced that it could no longer continue to support its operations in Russia and was transferring its Russian division to local management. It was clarified that the name of the Russian division would later be changed and the company would continue to work as an independent organization, focusing on the production of packaging material at its plant in the Moscow region.

https://ria.ru/20230123/tetra-1846673928.html

Russia is not really breaking patent rights

Going by the article, what happened is that Tetra Pak in Sweden washed its hands of the matter, transferred management of its branch in Russia to someone else (while still retaining share control likely), and is looking the other way, while the profits presumably continue to come in.

Good on them. The way to do things until better times. And their market share won't go anywhere.

Russia is not really breaking patent rights

Even if Russia is breaking NATzO patent rights, I don't see anything wrong here, NATzO has been waging an economic war against Russia for a long time. Ignoring NATzO patents is a good retaliation.

No, it's bad practice

If these corporations can offer a win-win alternative instead like TetraPak did, then that's a better solution

Breaking patent rights has implications not only for Western companies investing.
And you don't know how the politics of whatever country will change as a result of this whole global power struggle. Relations with big multinationals that invest in your country is almost like a separate field of diplomacy really, from that of with relations with governments. The former is dependent on the later to a large extent, but there is some room for maneuver and benefits to be gained from making an effort. Breaking patent rights is pretty much the nuclear option in relation to them.

A long and interesting interview with Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Valerievna Abramchenko:

https://ria.ru/20230123/abramchenko-1846246365.html.

Excerpt from the interview:

- Are you already including the new four regions in your plans, considering from the point of view of agriculture?

- Of course. So far, it is very difficult to say how many agricultural producers are in the new territories, because all state support measures apply mainly to this category. In 2023, we will collect official statistics on agricultural land, legal entities, entrepreneurs, and farms. And we have budgeted support measures. For 2023 - more than 10 billion rubles for four territories and for 2024 - more than 13 billion rubles. We plan to fully integrate the new territories into our regulatory framework, into the legal field as early as 2025. Until that time, programs to support the socio-economic development of new regions with funding from the federal budget will work.

Russia will start producing "clean" eggs needed to produce vaccines that meet international standards, by Irina Innocent for Rossiskaya Gazeta. 02.01.2023.

From February 1, a new standard of requirements for hatching chicken eggs, which are used as raw materials in the production of influenza vaccines, will come into force in Russia.

The new GOST, subject to its observance by poultry farms, will make it possible to provide pharmaceutical manufacturers with domestic raw materials standardized in quality and to produce vaccines that fully comply with international requirements.

In the world, this standard is called "Clean Egg" - these are fertilized chicken eggs used in the pharmaceutical industry when incubating embryos for the production of vaccines, in particular, for the prevention of influenza. It is clear that the requirements for such raw materials are special - for the production of eggs for the immunobiological industry, special chicken herds are used, they are kept under special conditions in terms of hygiene and biosafety, and the resulting eggs undergo strict control over a wide range of indicators.

So far, no relevant regulatory documents have been approved in Russia. To ensure the safety and quality of vaccines, manufacturers sourced hatching eggs from overseas. The task of developing its own standard, which would not only become the basis for import substitution in the production of vaccines, but also enable pharmaceutical manufacturers to export their products, was set two years ago when the government approved a plan to implement the National Strategy for the Development of Immunoprophylaxis of Infectious Diseases.

"The FMBA of Russia acted as an expert organization in the process of developing the standard, since the Agency has extensive experience in using hatching eggs that meet international standards - such raw materials are used in the production of influenza vaccines of the Flu-M line by our Research Institute of Vaccines and Serums in St. Petersburg," said Veronika Skvortsova, head of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency to Rossiyskaya Gazeta: “Such a national standard was developed and approved by order of Rosstandart on December 29, 2022. Prior to its approval, the quality of raw materials for the production of vaccines was not regulated in any way, which in practice blocked domestic manufacturers from entering foreign markets.”

Strict requirements for raw materials are not accidental, because it is necessary to provide almost sterile conditions for keeping chickens and producing eggs. “For example, influenza viruses cultured in chicken embryos from eggs of inadequate quality can be contaminated with viral and other pathogens, such as mycoplasma, avian leukemia viruses, adenoviruses. Using egg-derived chicken embryos in accordance with the new standard reduces the risk of infection practically to zero and opens up good opportunities for increasing non-commodity exports of Russia, in particular, anti-influenza vaccines," Veronika Skvortsova explained.

“Indeed, the lack of a national standard was a serious barrier to the export of our vaccines to countries with developed regulations. Without confirming the quality of the raw materials, it was impossible to get certified by a high-level regulator, such as the European EMA or the American CDC. This means that markets were closed for us only the EU and the US, but most of the markets of other developed countries or even entire organizations such as WHO and UNICEF,” Viktor Trukhin, director of the St. Petersburg Research Institute of Vaccines and Serums of the FMBA of Russia, explained to Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

Now vaccine manufacturers will have to re-evaluate the suppliers of raw materials, make sure that their products meet the requirements of the new standard, provide input control, and update the quality system documents, Viktor Trukhin noted.

In general, pharmaceutical manufacturers who used to buy hatching eggs in Europe hope that the introduction of the national standard will create a basis for the production of their own high-quality raw materials, which means that we will not depend on Western supplies and will be able to develop the export of vaccines.

https://rg.ru/2023/01/31/v-rossii-nachnut-proizvodstvo-chistyh-iaic-neobhodimyh-dlia-vypuska-vakcin-sootvetstvuiushchih-mirovym-standartam.html

IMF upgrades Russian economy forecast


The International Monetary Fund has revised upwards its estimate of Russian economic development, projecting GDP to grow by 0.3% this year, and 2.1% in 2024.

According to the fund’s World Economic Outlook update published on Monday, Russia’s GDP fell by 2.2% last year. In its October forecast, the IMF reported that the decline was expected to be 3.4%. For this year, the fund previously predicted a drop of 2.3%, and for 2024, a 2.1% decline.

The IMF’s estimates are beginning to converge with Russian forecasts, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development told RBK business daily following the release of the report.

“Indeed, the Russian economy is confidently overcoming the sanctions barriers of unfriendly countries. In 2023, further economic recovery will depend on the improvement of consumer demand, as well as measures to ensure the growth of corporate and consumer lending,” the ministry stated.

Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin stated that the Russian economy is in better shape than previously expected, and is on course for further stabilization. He added that the Western sanctions and international pressure have failed to seriously harm the economy, and the results have shown this.

https://www.rt.com/business/570737-russia-economy-imf-improved/

GDP growth is good, more important for economic transformation is the shifting of the elite from a transnational model where they have the bulk of assets abroad, to one which rewards elites with a center of economic interest within Russia , and which discourages and even punishes those who continue to maintain their assets abroad

In many ways the new sanctions placed by the US already took care of that

Now Russia must not only cultivate this new elite, but also connect them to the newly growing civil society

You realize that more than 1 million men will return to Russia with veteran status which are young ?

I'm not talking about afghan or even chechen veterans

But of the SMO, which will become land owners with preferential treatment in the new civil society

This is the most important factor in Russia right now

This is too idealistic an approach. In reality, current events only mean that two things will happen:
1. Russia will lose several tens of thousands of active citizens.
2. Those who returned from the war will actually be forced to join a new war - this time it will be a war to reframe society in Russia. And it will be a war with reactionary elites who are still eager to sell Russia in exchange for a privileged position and guarantees of joining the Western globalist elites.

so nothing is predetermined and Russia still has a long way to go, which is full of dangers. And there are no guarantees that this path will be successful.

The fact that you realise the west is not your friend and is not interested in an equal relationship based on respect with anyone... the US doesn't even respect the EU and is using it to sell products and make money out of them... the suggestion that there might be an alternative path than the selfish greedy self centred path the US has taken is a victory in itself.

The thing you are describing didn't happen overnight.
It was a long and constant process that started with the accumulation of capital back in the 80s.
People have an issue with linking the dots sometimes. For example, they cant make a clue of the fact, that back in the 80s they had five different banks on the street outside. Different ones, grouping a different capital. Having a different portfolio and security parameters. You could easily pick the one you find convenient.
The thing is long gone. The entire banking system in the US is owned by FOUR capital groups.



Those people don't care about the local population's needs. They give shit about the national interest, as they are doing business worldwide.

While the process was continuous, people didn't realize the results. And get used to them. Slowly. Like a frog boiled.

Now they have a problem with reminding themselves what was the difference. How they worked in a local company, owned by a local business. Financed by a local bank. Where every part of the structure cared, as was involved in the whole local system.

The thing remained me when I was in Genua. We had an apartment in the most prestigious neighborhood called Nervi. Why was it "prestigious"? Well ... not because being so fancy as an old town, but it was owned by the most wealthy people living there. Armators, bankers, owners of the insurance companies. On Friday evening, helicopters started to arrive all around. They were coming home after a week in the office in Rome. Using bloody privately owned helicopters.

On the street where our app was located, by a lazy walk there were about TEN banks. Local banks, with names I haven't ever seen in my life. "Banco Locale di Genoa" etc.
Everything there was local. People know each other for generations.
On Friday evening, a small restaurant was opening on the beach, here :
44.380005586941785, 9.051851347270722
And those people, being billionaires, ministers, and bankers, were sitting there on plastic chairs, greeting each other and smiling at their friends they haven't seen for a week.
They knew that we arrived, new folks in the neighborhood, half a day after.
And a nice lady in a local grocery store at the corner already knew that I mustn't buy bread because my daughters did, an hour earlier ...
It was something phenomenal. Either we will get back to this style of mutual respect or will die.

The veterans are not alone in the fight to restructure the civil society

Millions of people have donated to volunteers - drones, medical equipment, armaments, military clothing, communication equipment, people are teaching volunteers, and so on

They succeeded where the MOD could not

It shows that people stepped in to fulfill the role where the government simply could not cope with the task

And it is this mobilization of human potential, which is the real economy

Because this mass, can be directed after the SMO to new objectives

A new civil consciousness has been born, and this is the key indicator

People have left their old jobs to fulfill new ones, and even taking on small business roles to help in this objective !

This is the real economy, forget about the old elite - and take the example of Prigozhin

Or even Rogozin

There are people who despite any human deficiencies, are trustworthy to lead

The veterans are not alone in the fight to restructure the civil society

Millions of people have donated to volunteers - drones, medical equipment, armaments, military clothing, communication equipment, people are teaching volunteers, and so on

They succeeded where the MOD could not

It shows that people stepped in to fulfill the role where the government simply could not cope with the task

And it is this mobilization of human potential, which is the real economy

Because this mass, can be directed after the SMO to new objectives

A new civil consciousness has been born, and this is the key indicator

People have left their old jobs to fulfill new ones, and even taking on small business roles to help in this objective !

This is the real economy, forget about the old elite - and take the example of Prigozhin

Or even Rogozin

There are people who despite any human deficiencies, are trustworthy to lead

Yeah dude no, the right-wing Telegram doomers are not going to be allowed to have any influence in society after the war ends. That's not the purpose that you've been bred and fed for by the elites. You guys are the Russian equivalent of the various Ukro ultra-nationalists, wives of Azov members, Svoboda voters and whatever.. yeah less Nazi, but with the same outsized perception of your own importance. There's a reason why the only opposition the Maidan regime in Kiev tolerated was the one that was even more radical and Russia-hating than itself. Because such people were useful, violent and moreover easy to manipulate. But we hardly need such a mess here; with various people thinking they should be able to boss others around, or are a little bit above the law - like in the Ukraine with some ex-ATO veterans casually throwing grenades when they have a dispute on civvie-street.
We didn't have it post-WW2; everyone just slowly transitioned from the military and rebuilt their lives.. and we're not going to have it now. No sir.

By all means there are a lot of people doing invaluable work, aside from the soldiers themselves of course. We have volunteers providing humanitarian aid for women & kids & old people, groups and organizers crowdfunding equipment for the troops, and so on. You're right that often such efforts can substitute for the government's and the MoD's failures, organizations which are more rigid and bureaucratic in their organization and may miss problems or resolve deficiencies only slowly & sluggishly

But as for buying post-war influence through such a process - no. Check your privilege. If a humble spasibo from the soldiers and Donbass civilians, and a nod & a wink from the Kremlin is not enough; then you haven't been helping for the right reasons.

@FP
Yeah dude no, the right-wing Telegram doomers are not going to be allowed to have any influence in society after the war ends. That's not the purpose that you've been bred and fed for by the elites. You guys are the Russian equivalent of the various Ukro ultra-nationalists, wives of Azov members, Svoboda voters and whatever.. yeah less Nazi, but with the same outsized perception of your own importance. There's a reason why the only opposition the Maidan regime in Kiev tolerated was the one that was even more radical and Russia-hating than itself.

Which groups, aside from Rusich, which is openly fascist, and some other smaller fractions would you call right ( when you say right, I think that you mean far-right)? They can be compared to Ukrainian ultra nationalists.

Anyone who screaming about withdrawals, about the 'Russian' cities of Odessa, Zaporozhie and others - disregarding the obvious, and stuff like that. Is right-wing. I'm not saying they are far-right, nor do they need to be to cause trouble. It's from this crowd that all the commotion and doomerism has been coming from, and in practice it does not much less damage than outright Navalnites and pro-NATO liberals doing their thing.

I would say that you have people from across the political spectrum screaming against withdrawals. As I said to you, previously, I was surprised by the number of communists and leftists that held defetist views. Their reasons might be different, but results are same.
First reason is that nobody expected that Russian army will have this many problems. As the army was constantly ranked highest in trust, among all Russian institutions some knee jerk reaction in opposite direction, when things didn't work out according to their expectations, is completely normal.
Second is that many people don't like United Russia party. Even if Putin is generally liked, many people perceive structures of the party as amorphous, conformist mass of people, that live well above their means and ride on the back of Putin's personal popularity. And I believe that there's a lot of truth there, since any real progress in Russia was made in recent years by involving technocrats in bigger numbers.
Nobody would put his trust in Matvienko and similar bureaucrats and I tend to agree.
To summarize it, I don't agree with your views, as they are too stringent. I think that Arkhangelsk is onto something. And it should not be seen as a bad thing.

Of course, after all you are a doomer too

I have a question - how large is Russian middle class as a % of society?

Of course, after all you are a doomer too

If by that you mean that I like to question people in power, than sure.
On a serious note, at one point, I almost invested in Russia, and have a first hand experience with low levels of bureaucracy. Not to mention extensive contacts with regular people.