The oil cap is de-facto having an effect
Russia offered discounts to the Chinese, Indians, Turks and others in the first place to entice them to increase imports of Russian hydrocarbons
But that is the super bonus... Russia was making good money at $40 per barrel so when the price is $100 a barrel they can still give a $30 per barrel discount and they are getting $30 pure profit plus the profit they were making at $40 per barrel. Their extraction costs don't increase with market price. Their profit margin increases.
And even more so... because if you make three times more profit on your product but demand goes down it costs less to ship less so when your profit margin goes up but your volume of sales goes down your profit actually goes up even more because you transport and store less.
It means Russias allies and friends and reasonable customers get cheap energy... you know... the way Europe used to get cheap energy from them, and when the good customers that now get discounts increase their imports the G7 tossers that want caps will have less available oil on the international market to buy because more is going to their good customers at a reduced price but at a good profit.
This means if they have to say zero sales to countries that comply with the price cap they don't lose as much volume sales because their sensible customers will buy more Russian oil because it is discounted... but Russia is still making a massive profit, and probably better money than they were making before.
If their allies pay the reduced price then of course when they buy more their other suppliers... the rest of OPEC will sell less so let them sell to the G7 and those that agree with their anti market price manipulation, but can they meet the needs of the G7... they already agreed to reduce production so the total amount of oil available to buy is reduced too.
I rather suspect some G7 countries will buy Russian oil from third parties and pretend they didn't know, and there are more than 3 countries in the EU so countries like Hungary can make their own deals.
But I don't see it as having any decisive effect, if anything it will hurt the economies more that refuse to import Russian oil, than the Russians who have all the customers they want even if they have to sell oil at a lower price to them than the already high market price mandated by OPEC+'s decision to cut their own oil output.
It is going to force the market price of oil up, which means other OPEC members who were selling to India and other countries Russia is offering a discount to, will now have to find new customers... and when Russia refuses to ship oil to the G7 and those that suck up to them, then these OPEC members will have new customers for their full price oil... but the market will make it more expensive... it doesn't change the cost of extraction... it will just increase the price for the customer and the profit for the seller.
The only countries that lose are those that agree to the price cap who are going to find they can't buy oil or that the price has greatly increased... the opposite of what they want.
It is funny that the west is trying to find a price cap level where Russia makes enough profit to still want to sell to them... they want Russia to give in to blackmail... when they are breaking relations with the US dominated west... why would they start now?
Pay special attention to this wording: "The main condition for our victory" is absolute and unconditional "trust in the supreme power." Whoever thinks differently is de facto working for the enemy. And how in Russia they deal with "enemies" during that existential test for the country, which is the NWO, is well known.
Putin has a long track record of doing the right thing, of not over reacting immediately, of mulling options to prevent responses from backfiring... take a look at western economies right now and predictions for energy resources for this winter and next winter to see the opposite of that.
Putin tolerates opposing voices... he talks to the Russian people without being handed a list of the questions in advance so detailed answers can be prepared for him.
It is funny that people who don't agree with him claim he is too soft... he should be more like Stalin... he is too human... from a western perspective he is the way we perceived our own leaders should be but are not.
I choose not to judge the Russian military or Putin till the game is over and I am disappointed at the weak little chickens squawking that the sky is falling and Putin does not know what he is doing... if he does not get this right he will essentially just be turning the clock back to 2014 and this will become ground hog day repeating over and over and over.
The solution is not to devastate the country of the Ukraine... countries are not bothered by shell craters... UXO can be cleaned up and buildings and roads and bridges can be repaired or rebuilt, the problem is the pro nazis, which sadly are everywhere and infiltrate most countries, but a good long war will result in most of them leaving eventually... especially when the price of oil goes up and Russia stops selling metals to certain western countries and stops selling uranium to the US for their nuclear power plants.... of course the west will not collapse over any of that, but the added time taken to replace and the extra cost of the new sources will lower living standards and increase internal problems to the point where more and more people will question all this money and equipment going to Ukraine...
This is at the same time a small military adventure and a war... the war is not against the Ukraine, but Ukraines puppet masters... the west.
“Putin will never agree to a “shameful peace” either with Ukraine or with the West.
All putin ever wanted from the west was respect, to be treated as an equal ally, and they only talked down to them and lectured them and told them they had to comply and feed the US... which is the purpose of the west.
Feed the US and they will tell you what your culture will be via TV and movies and the internet.
Militarily Russia has goals to achieve and when they are achieved then they can sift through the remains of Kiev to find someone to sign the peace agreements... sure as hell wont be German or French or UK or US signatures and it wont be Zelenskys signature either... none of which are worth anything at all.
ze West started to honor agreement 3 days before expiry? so lack of honor ..
They would have given less time if they thought they could get away with it...
I suspect the plan is to leave it so late that it can't all be shipped by the due date so Russia will have to extend the deal to continue shipping their products.
All this has been a good eye opener for them, so now they appreciate they need a significant merchant fleet of their own that can ship their goods that ignores western sanctions and doesn't deliver Russian goods through EU ports. Also that insurance from local sources needs to be organised too for the same reasons.
Expanding the Russian commercial fleet means they need to expand their naval fleet too.
Last edited by GarryB on 13/11/22, 06:45 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Edited for clarity.)