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    Russia and economic war by the west

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:58 pm

    Garry already said economic news will stay as it is fully related to the war

    https://www.rt.com/news/553066-germany-france-gas-rubles/

    The euros are good with us cutting off the gas, okay here it comes mofos

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    par far


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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:13 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Garry already said economic news will stay as it is fully related to the war

    https://www.rt.com/news/553066-germany-france-gas-rubles/

    The euros are good with us cutting off the gas, okay here it comes mofos


    What people don't understand is that is a war on many fronts and that includes the economic front as well, it is all related.



    "#GotGoldorRubles? Russia Just Broke the Back of the West"

    https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/28/got-gold-rubles-russia-just-broke-the-back-of-the-west/



    Slowly, the western financial system is being broken down.

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:43 pm

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:53 pm


    "Putin says Russia will enforce rouble payments for gas from Friday"


    Last edited by lancelot on Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:08 pm



    Indian press: Moscow and New Delhi launch alternative interbank messaging system

    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 1648720024_1646226979_snimok

    Russia and India are switching to rubles and rupees in their settlements, while simultaneously launching their own interbank messaging system, which will replace SWIFT. This is reported by the Economic Times.

    According to the newspaper, which refers to informed sources, Moscow and New Delhi have completed the creation of their own system of interbank messages, which acted as an alternative to SWIFT. The new system will be launched by the Russian state development bank VEB and the Reserve Bank of India (the country's central bank) to facilitate settlements between countries in trade. The new system should be up and running within a week.

    The new payment system is likely to be installed at the headquarters of both the Reserve Bank of India and VEB (...) will be able to ensure the smooth transfer of import or export documents for transactions in rupees and rubles

    - writes the edition.

    At the same time, there is no data on the system itself or its name yet. At the same time, some Western media claim that Russia has offered India to connect to the Russian Financial Messaging System (SPFS), but this is only speculation. Earlier it was reported that Russia proposed to create a new means of payment for settlements between the Russian Federation and friendly countries.

    In Russia itself, after a number of banks were disconnected from SWIFT, they switched to the transmission of financial messages using the new system of the Bank of Russia, which is in no way connected with Western resources. SPFS was created in 2014 specifically for the operation of banks under sanctions, has been tested and has been operating in Russia for a long time. The system includes not only Russian, but also all Belarusian banks, four from Kyrgyzstan, two each from Armenia and Kazakhstan, one each from Tajikistan and Cuba. In total, 351 participants are connected to the Russian system today.

    https://en.topwar.ru/194240-indijskaja-pressa-moskva-i-nju-deli-zapuskajut-alternativnuju-sistemu-peredachi-mezhbankovskih-soobschenij.html

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    Dima
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    Post  Dima Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:16 pm

    Ruble exchange
    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Rubleh10

    In today's trading, on a 6 month period chart.
    Ruble opened at 82.5 / USD
    Went down upto 83.5
    Went high upto 78.25 and
    Closed at 79 / USD
    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Ruble710

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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:24 pm

    Is it a joke? They're definitely ridiculous.

    US Will ‘Allow’ India to Buy Russian Oil, Threatens Sanctions If New Delhi Buys Too Much: Report


    The position taken by India regarding Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has provoked disappointment from its former western colonial masters, with New Delhi calling for a cessation of hostilities, but refusing to join the West in condemning Moscow and declining to halt trade.

    India will be “allowed” to buy Russian energy resources, but will face a “great risk” if it fails to comply with western sanctions, a senior Biden administration official has warned.

    “The US has no objection to India buying Russian oil provided it buys it at a discount, without significantly increasing from previous years. Some increase is allowed,” the unnamed official told Reuters.

    “Whatever they are paying, whatever they are doing, needs to be in compliance with sanctions. If not they are exposing themselves to a great risk. As long as they are compliant with sanctions and not significantly raising purchases, we are okay,” the official added.

    The anonymous official did not elaborate on whether this “great risk” might mean US secondary sanctions, nor what precisely would constitute a “significant” rise in the purchase of Russian energy.

    “We, over the next several days and weeks, are going to be stepping up the enforcement of sanctions. We are telling everybody, everywhere around the world to ensure you are compliant with sanctions…this is the message to everyone,” the official said.

    India has taken advantage of spot deals on Russian oil in recent weeks, buying more than 13 million barrels of Russian crude over the past month – just a few million barrels short of the estimated 16 million barrels New Delhi bought from Russia throughout all of 2021.

    A US State Department spokesman has said Washington is “engaging” India and other countries “on the importance of a strong collective action, including strong sanctions” to put pressure on Moscow amid its military operation in Ukraine.

    US and Australian officials expressed "deep disappointment" with New Delhi on Thursday over its ongoing talks with Moscow on a ruble-rupee payment mechanism in trade, which would allow India to dodge sanctions. Australian Trade Minister Dan Tehan promised to “continue working with India” to chip away at its independent position on the Ukraine crisis.

    Last week, President Biden rebuked India for its “somewhat shaky” response to the Russian military operation in Ukraine. Indian officials responded by pointing to western hypocrisy of continuing to buy Russian oil and gas while trying to press New Delhi into shunning Russian energy supplies.

    US and European officials have expressed consternation about how India, Pakistan and other non-western countries have responded to the Ukraine calamity, including over the way regional rivals New Delhi and Islamabad, who rarely agree on anything, jointly abstained from condemning Russia at the UN General Assembly. Earlier this month, Pakistani President Imran Khan slammed western envoys calling on Pakistan to denounce the Russian operation in Ukraine. “What do you think of us? Are we your slaves … that whatever you say, we will do?” Khan asked.

    Indian officials expressed similar anger. Last week, a planned trip by a high-powered delegation of senior UK lawmakers including Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle to New Delhi and Rajasthan was cancelled after the Indian government refused to meet them.

    India, Pakistan, China, Iran, Iraq, Cuba, Vietnam and dozens of countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America have refused to cut ties with Moscow or stop doing business with Russian companies over the situation in Ukraine.

    Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to travel to New Delhi on Friday to meet with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and discuss the ruble-rupee payment scheme, the supply of spare parts for India’s Russia-sourced military equipment, Arctic investment, and other topics.

    https://sputniknews.com/20220331/us-will-allow-india-to-buy-russian-oil-threatens-sanctions-if-new-delhi-buys-too-much-report-1094368069.html

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:40 pm

    par far wrote:

    What people don't understand is that is a war on many fronts and that includes the economic front as well, it is all related.


    As the main objector here I hope that it is not me that you are accusing of not understanding that wars have many fronts.

    My position is that this operation in Ukraine and the events it spawned is a large enough subject to allow more than one thread on it and this forum is structured in a way that encourages it.

    Indeed that is what happened, we have a military thread and an economic thread. If used properly it allows a viewer to just concentrate on one of the aspects and not get bogged down in posts that are not relevant to their search but may be relevant to the war as a whole. Both now and later they are totally different animals.

    The situation is a bit worse than that in that interesting economic posts may be put in the military thread and then missed by someone searching the economic thread. The reverse is unlikely to happen as it is bad enough already, given the volume of posts, for those of us actually interested in the military to catch up if we miss say more than 12 hours.

    Posting all in one thread is the lazy, easy way out but modern life is like that, social media especially, where what happened, sometimes only moments ago is gone, history and often near impossible to find later.

    Whilst using a bit more effort to get a better, cleaner result that will stand the test of potentially being referred to over time is old fashioned so shunned.

    If you want your posts to count please put them in the appropriate thread.

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    par far


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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:51 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    par far wrote:

    What people don't understand is that is a war on many fronts and that includes the economic front as well, it is all related.


    As the main objector here I hope that it is not me that you are accusing of not understanding that wars have many fronts.

    My position is that this operation in Ukraine and the events it spawned is a large enough subject to allow more than one thread on it and this forum is structured in a way that encourages it.

    Indeed that is what happened, we have a military thread and an economic thread. If used properly it allows a viewer to just concentrate on one of the aspects and not get bogged down in posts that are not relevant to their search but may be relevant to the war as a whole. Both now and later they are totally different animals.

    The situation is a bit worse than that in that interesting economic posts may be put in the military thread and then missed by someone searching the economic thread. The reverse is unlikely to happen as it is bad enough already, given the volume of posts, for those of us actually interested in the military to catch up if we miss say more than 12 hours.

    Posting all in one thread is the lazy, easy way out but modern life is like that, social media especially, where what happened, sometimes only moments ago is gone, history and often near impossible to find later.

    Whilst using a bit more effort to get a better, cleaner result that will stand the test of potentially being referred to over time is old fashioned so shunned.

    If you want your posts to count please put them in the appropriate thread.


    I am not accusing anyone, what I am saying is that the events on the ground impact the economic situation as well.

    There is also the information war that is related to everything and that is also posted here.

    Sometimes you need information from all fronts to get a clearer picture.

    Please note that what I say is not personal and not directed at anyone.


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    Dima
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    Post  Dima Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:52 pm

    Well, India is and will always be the weakest link (as long as western stooges are in control of the establishment) in any new non-western/US financial/world order.

    I would caution anyone getting too optimistic about India's role, based on the so-called neutral stance. Its "balancing" act, in other plain words, spineless act was to appease the US/western masters, telling them that "see, we did not vote in favour of Russia". But even then, the west/US is not happy and wants to extract more with a firm No/anti Russian stand.

    It would be utterly foolish of Russians to even consider India as neutral or even a serious ally, when its not. Hope the Russians open the Soviet blinds on their eyes and see the reality as to where India has set its bed, for the past 15+ years.



    Across the Indian border, also see what Imran Khan/Pakistan is facing now. A regime change is currently underway in Pakistan for their neutral stance/abstention against Russia. Its clear to anyone with a brain and commonsense that, the current crisis facing Imran Khan w.r.t no-confidence motion is due to the US/western powers activating their stooges in Pakistan for Pakistan/Imran Khan's stand w.r.t Russia in UN.

    It should also be any eyeopener to any "expert", particularly in India, who thinks Pakistan is a Chinese asset. Well, no. It always was a US/western protectorate and Pakistani mil/political establishment was always in their firm clutches.

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    owais.usmani


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    Post  owais.usmani Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:53 pm

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    par far


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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:57 pm

    Dima wrote:Well, India is and will always be the weakest link (as long as western stooges are in control of the establishment) in any new non-western/US financial/world order.

    I would caution anyone getting too optimistic about India's role, based on the so-called neutral stance. Its "balancing" act, in other plain words, spineless act was to appease the US/western masters, telling them that "see, we did not vote in favour of Russia". But even then, the west/US is not happy and wants to extract more with a firm No/anti Russian stand.

    It would be utterly foolish of Russians to even consider India as neutral or even a serious ally, when its not. Hope the Russians open the Soviet blinds on their eyes and see the reality as to where India has set its bed, for the past 15+ years.



    Across the Indian border, also see what Imran Khan/Pakistan is facing now. A regime change is currently underway in Pakistan for their neutral stance/abstention against Russia. Its clear to anyone with a brain and commonsense that, the current crisis facing Imran Khan w.r.t no-confidence motion is due to the US/western powers activating their stooges in Pakistan for Pakistan/Imran Khan's stand w.r.t Russia in UN.

    It should also be any eyeopener to any "expert", particularly in India, who thinks Pakistan is a Chinese asset. Well, no. It always was a US/western protectorate and Pakistani mil/political establishment was always in their firm clutches.



    You can look at this from another direction, the Indians have refused to tow the US/wests line and now the US/west has not option to say what, they just said.

    As for Pakistan, let's see what happens there.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:09 pm

    India caved in to US pressure and stopped purchases of oil from Iran a couple years back after the US unilaterally got out of the JCPOA.
    China are the ones who picked up the slack. Now India finds itself shut out of Iranian oil market.
    India might be dumb enough to repeat the same thing with Russian oil.

    The Indian economy is highly dependent on sales of services to Western nations as export revenue. So they are highly vulnerable to Western pressure to their own detriment.
    They will likely end up as a Western colony of call center employees/code monkeys at this rate.


    Last edited by lancelot on Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:11 pm



    The United States had to lift the embargo on the supply of Russian fertilizers

    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Agro1

    US agriculture needs products from the Russian Federation. Therefore, the United States had to lift the embargo on the supply of Russian fertilizers.


    About it сообщает the newspaper Kommersant.

    The publication notes that such a step by the US government will allow US agricultural enterprises to avoid shortages of fertilizers, one of the world's largest producers of which is Russia.

    Documented withdrawal from the sanctions of products from the Russian Federation was carried out with the help of a general license from the Office for Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury. She was accepted on March 24th. The document equated fertilizers with goods of strategic importance, such as medicines, medical products or agricultural products.

    Sources of the publication believe that due to restrictions on the supply of Russian fertilizers, their shortage on the world market has already begun to be felt. To a large extent, this is due to the refusal from March 1 of cooperation with Russia by the largest carriers of container cargo using sea transport. We are talking about the Swiss company MSC, the Danish Maersk and the French CMA CGM. This seriously disrupted the logistics.

    It turned out to slightly alleviate the situation with the help of transport companies of countries that did not impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. But the document adopted by the US Treasury, lifting the ban on the supply of Russian fertilizers, helped to finally resolve the issue of the deficit.

    https://en.topwar.ru/194239-soedinennym-shtatam-prishlos-otmenjat-jembargo-na-postavki-rossijskih-udobrenij.html

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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:21 pm

    lancelot wrote:India caved in to US pressure and stopped purchases of oil from Iran a couple years back after the US unilaterally got out of the JCPOA.
    China are the ones who picked up the slack. Now India finds itself shut out of Iranian oil market.
    India might be dumb enough to repeat the same thing with Russian oil.

    The Indian economy is highly dependent on sales of services to Western nations as export revenue. So they are highly vulnerable to Western pressure to their own detriment.
    They will likely end up as a Western colony of call center employees/code monkeys at this rate.


    I think Russia is on a whole new level than Iran but we will see what happens with India.

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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:25 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:

    The United States had to lift the embargo on the supply of Russian fertilizers

    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Agro1

    US agriculture needs products from the Russian Federation. Therefore, the United States had to lift the embargo on the supply of Russian fertilizers.


    About it сообщает the newspaper Kommersant.

    The publication notes that such a step by the US government will allow US agricultural enterprises to avoid shortages of fertilizers, one of the world's largest producers of which is Russia.

    Documented withdrawal from the sanctions of products from the Russian Federation was carried out with the help of a general license from the Office for Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury. She was accepted on March 24th. The document equated fertilizers with goods of strategic importance, such as medicines, medical products or agricultural products.

    Sources of the publication believe that due to restrictions on the supply of Russian fertilizers, their shortage on the world market has already begun to be felt. To a large extent, this is due to the refusal from March 1 of cooperation with Russia by the largest carriers of container cargo using sea transport. We are talking about the Swiss company MSC, the Danish Maersk and the French CMA CGM. This seriously disrupted the logistics.

    It turned out to slightly alleviate the situation with the help of transport companies of countries that did not impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. But the document adopted by the US Treasury, lifting the ban on the supply of Russian fertilizers, helped to finally resolve the issue of the deficit.

    https://en.topwar.ru/194239-soedinennym-shtatam-prishlos-otmenjat-jembargo-na-postavki-rossijskih-udobrenij.html




    The US plans to release one million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months, How much of a difference will that have? I don't think it will be much and after the US releases 186 million barrels of oil, the prices will just up again, even more. The US will need to replace those 186 million barrels of oil.

    Please correct me if I am wrong.

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:31 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    US agriculture needs products from the Russian Federation. Therefore, the United States had to lift the embargo on the supply of Russian fertilizers.

    About it сообщает the newspaper Kommersant.

    The publication notes that such a step by the US government will allow US agricultural enterprises to avoid shortages of fertilizers, one of the world's largest producers of which is Russia.

    Documented withdrawal from the sanctions of products from the Russian Federation was carried out with the help of a general license from the Office for Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury. She was accepted on March 24th. The document equated fertilizers with goods of strategic importance, such as medicines, medical products or agricultural products.

    Sources of the publication believe that due to restrictions on the supply of Russian fertilizers, their shortage on the world market has already begun to be felt. To a large extent, this is due to the refusal from March 1 of cooperation with Russia by the largest carriers of container cargo using sea transport. We are talking about the Swiss company MSC, the Danish Maersk and the French CMA CGM. This seriously disrupted the logistics.

    It turned out to slightly alleviate the situation with the help of transport companies of countries that did not impose sanctions against the Russian Federation. But the document adopted by the US Treasury, lifting the ban on the supply of Russian fertilizers, helped to finally resolve the issue of the deficit.

    I assume that every country, not just the boss, the US, can buy these products.

    Now, all they have to agree on is how to pay for all these Russian necessities.

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    Post  lancelot Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:43 pm

    Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer are "dual use" products which can be used to make explosives. I think Russia should just stop sales of that to these countries.

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    Post  nero Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:45 pm

    par far wrote:The US plans to release one million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months, How much of a difference will that have? I don't think it will be much and after the US releases 186 million barrels of oil, the prices will just up again, even more. The US will need to replace those 186 million barrels of oil. Please correct me if I am wrong.

    The strategic petroleum reserve of the United States' total capacity is 714 MMbbl (million barrels of oil and condensate).

    Releasing 1 MMbbl/d for a 6 month period would release a total of 180 MMbbl or 25% of the total storage capacity.

    The United States consumes approximately 15 - 20 MMbbl/d. The current release would account for ~6% of current daily usage.

    Is it going to impact oil prices? It already has as WTI went down by 6.42%. That said, it is not going to fix the global energy crisis (though admittedly, that is probably not the point).

    A lot of people don't really understand how bad the current prices in the United States are. This is a knee-jerk political response in hopes that it'll alleviate the situation in the short term to fix what is likely a long-term problem. I guess there is a sense of burning in the air there.

    It is very likely that other commodities are going to be sold in the RUB for 'unfriendly countries' and in local currencies for the rest (once they sort that out). They recently announced (allegedly) that they are moving to the gold standard. 5000 RUB for 1 gram of gold. That would imply 1 USD is worth 73.16 RUB.


    Last edited by nero on Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:48 pm

    lancelot wrote:Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer are "dual use" products which can be used to make explosives. I think Russia should just stop sales of that to these countries.


    If it comes to that, I think Russia will do that. Russia has showed that it will act.

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    Post  par far Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:50 pm

    nero wrote:
    par far wrote:The US plans to release one million barrels of oil per day for the next 6 months, How much of a difference will that have? I don't think it will be much and after the US releases 186 million barrels of oil, the prices will just up again, even more. The US will need to replace those 186 million barrels of oil. Please correct me if I am wrong.

    The strategic petroleum reserve of the United States' total capacity is 714 MMbbl (million barrels of oil and condensate).

    Releasing 1 MMbbl/d for a 6 month period would release a total of 180 MMbbl or 25% of the total storage capacity.

    The United States consumes approximately 15 - 20 MMbbl/d. The current release would account for ~6% of current daily usage.

    Is it going to impact oil prices? It already has as WTI went down by 6.42%. That said, it is not going to fix the global energy crisis (though admittedly, that is probably not the point).

    A lot of people don't really understand how bad the current prices in the United States are. This is a knee-jerk political response in hopes that it'll alleviate the situation in the short term to fix what is likely a long-term problem. I guess there is a sense of burning in the air there.


    Thank you for the explanation.

    I think it is the Democrat's worrying about the mid terms in November.


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    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Thu Mar 31, 2022 5:02 pm

    What is the secret of the wonderful strengthening of the ruble, by Olga Samofalova for VZGLYAD. 31.3.2022.

    The Russian ruble has experienced unprecedented fluctuations over the past month. First, it reached 120 rubles per dollar, and then returned almost to its original position of 83 rubles. Behind this economic miracle is the subtle and precise management of the financial system, which the West has dealt an unprecedented blow. But what will happen to the ruble next?

    After the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Russia, the dollar rose to 120 rubles, and the euro to 127 rubles. A new historical low of the Russian currency was reached.

    The exchange rate of the ruble fell by 30% at the end of February 2022, but this cannot be called the biggest fall of the ruble in the history of modern Russia. In 1992, the introduction of a free exchange rate led to a 223-fold fall in the ruble: from 56 kopecks to 125 rubles. During the "Black Tuesday" of 1994 (October 11), the ruble against the dollar fell by 38.5% from 2833 rubles to 3926 rubles. And during the default of 1998, the ruble depreciated 3.2 times against the dollar: the dollar rose from 6.5 rubles to 20.83 rubles in a week, recalls Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.

    This time, the ruble managed to get stronger in a fairly short period. As early as last week, it began to grow rapidly and by Tuesday, March 29, it had strengthened to almost 83 rubles per dollar and up to 92.1 per euro. This happened for the first time since February 25th.

    How did the Russian currency manage in such a difficult situation of uncertainty and unprecedented geopolitical pressure not only to strengthen after its historical peak, but also to almost return to the rate before the start of the special operation in Ukraine?

    First, the ruble was affected by measures introduced by Russia to protect the affected financial market. They stopped the fall of the ruble and helped it to strengthen a little. In particular, the Central Bank raised the rate, introduced a ban on the sale of cash dollars to the population and restrictions on the withdrawal of foreign currency deposits. Also, exporters were obliged to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings, and for individuals, the Central Bank introduced a commission of 30% for conversion operations on the Moscow Exchange. At the same time, imports to the country decreased. The Central Bank prohibits non-residents from closing ruble positions and withdrawing funds abroad, and this can be several trillion rubles. All this logically led to a decrease in demand for currency on the exchange.

    But a serious increase in demand for rubles ensured Russia's retaliatory counterstrike. The Kremlin gave the EU and other unfriendly countries an ultimatum that it would be ready to sell gas only for rubles, because it became pointless to sell for dollars and euros. The meaning will return only if the West lifts sanctions against Russia, which is out of the question. This is tantamount to as if all foreign exchange earnings from gas supplies to exporters had to be converted into rubles without fail.

    According to the consulting company ICIS, in the period from the beginning of the special operation to March 15, Gazprom earned about $340 million a day from the sale of gas. In January, his earnings amounted to 9.5 billion dollars. Converting such amounts into rubles and pouring into the Russian market is a major strengthening factor.

    Only now the concern for the Russian ruble is entrusted not to Russian, but to foreign companies that buy gas in Russia. “This measure will support the ruble not by 80% of exporters' foreign exchange earnings, but by 100% of gas sales to the EU, which makes up about a third of Gazprom's total gas exports to non-CIS countries. In addition, the authorities' requirement for exporters to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings is an anti-crisis measure and may be canceled when the situation on the foreign exchange market normalizes. And the settlements of external gas consumers in rubles provide the Russian currency with longer-term support and tangible fundamental security,” says Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

    When the scheme of settlements in rubles starts working in the gas sector, then switching to settlements in rubles for all other export goods of Russia, and these are oil, grain, metals, will become a matter of technology. This event draws on a revolution in world trade, where the dollar rules. Other countries, in particular, Asian ones, may want to repeat the successful example of Russia.

    Now this strategic counterattack is being targeted. The ruble did not immediately go up quickly due to the fact that they began to buy it on the market. However, European buyers do not yet have a ruble, says Deev. Mainly Russian exporters are active. The ruble was supported by the end of March.

    “The tax period in March is one of the largest. Due to the peculiarities of paying income tax, its size for basic taxes amounted to almost 3.5 trillion rubles in March against 2.2 trillion rubles in February. Probably, exporters held on to the currency until the last day of payments, counting on a possible weakening of the ruble, and when this did not happen, they began to actively sell export earnings,” says Evstifeev. At the same time, importers are not very active, so the supply of currency significantly exceeds demand, which also leads to a strengthening of the exchange rate.

    On Tuesday, geopolitics supported the ruble: following the Turkish talks between Russia and Ukraine, the first step towards a peace agreement was taken. On Wednesday, March 30, the ruble continued to strengthen, but not for long. It fixed at 84 rubles per dollar and 94 rubles per euro. What is the limit of the possible strengthening of the ruble?

    Two scenarios can be considered. But even in a scenario where Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement and secure security guarantees with the participation of the West, it will be difficult to return to 75-80 rubles as before. “Strengthening to 80 rubles per dollar is possible, but a lower dollar exchange rate may create risks for filling the Russian budget. Therefore, when the dollar exchange rate falls into the range of 75-80 rubles, verbal interventions by the authorities may probably follow, and then the abolition of measures supporting the ruble, ”says Evstifeev.

    “At the moment, we can see the dollar below 80 rubles as a reaction to the improvement in the geopolitical situation. But over a longer period, it is more likely that the ruble-dollar pair will return above 90 rubles, ”said Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

    The peace agreement will ensure the stability of the ruble. “The ruble can stabilize and gain a foothold in the range of 80-90 rubles per dollar, given the new risk premium, even if the most “tough” sanctions are lifted, in particular, they “unfreeze” the reserves of the Central Bank and banks and remove restrictions on payments to Euroclear. Sanctions of medium severity will remain - and the trust of non-residents can no longer be returned. The fate of the “hard” sanctions is also not clear, since the main condition for their lifting is a guarantee that Russia will not go on a military special operation 2.0,” said Iskander Lutsko, chief investment strategist at ITI Capital.

    If there is a new escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, then the ruble will begin to weaken in early April, as soon as Russian exporters stop selling the currency. The ruble may return to 90-100 per dollar, and some experts expect more weakening.

    Deev notes that it is difficult to predict the exchange rate, since now any positive moments in geopolitics can lead to the strengthening of our currency, and any negative, for example, the next Western sanctions, will put pressure. But, in his opinion, neither the dollar nor the euro will rise above 100 rubles in the near future.

    Considering that non-residents are not allowed on the exchange, and many assets were converted into rubles, the situation may lead to the formation of a second exchange rate or a black market, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may fix the ruble in general, Andrey Maslov, an analyst at FG Finam, does not exclude, although he adds that the likelihood of this happening is low. According to him, the ruble will soon fall again and will trade above 100 per dollar and 120 per euro. “When the country’s economy begins to recover from the conflict in Ukraine and capital markets open, and restrictions are lifted, the ruble may fall and significantly lower,” the expert believes.

    https://vz.ru/economy/2022/3/31/1151275.html
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Thu Mar 31, 2022 5:44 pm



    Putin has signed a decree banning all foreign software use at strategically important enterprises. So no more NSA backdoors
    at Russian power plants. Recall how Biden boasted that the US would launch a cyber counter-attack (LOL) on Russia.

    Russian enterprises are still using western software. Idiots.



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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:12 pm

    kvs wrote:

    Putin has signed a decree banning all foreign software use at strategically important enterprises.   So no more NSA backdoors
    at Russian power plants.  Recall how Biden boasted that the US would launch a cyber counter-attack (LOL) on Russia.

    Russian enterprises are still using western software.   Idiots.



    Technically Linux OS is western, but didn't they develop an indigenous Linux kernel for Russian govt. enterprises with no software built-in backdoors?

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:24 pm

    The Federation hasn't even begun to fight! Russia hasn't even released any of the many dozens upon dozens of it's financial warfare measures in retaliation, and the Western markets are already reeling from trillions of USD in losses! Mind you this could be sustained indefinitely as it is!
    Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Screen11Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Screen12Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Screen13Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Screen14Russia and economic war by the west - Page 16 Screen15

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