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    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3

    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:29 pm

    Not OT. There is lots of bitching about how Russia is behind in machine tool manufacturing. In fact, China has grabbed most of
    this sector from the west with only Japan still in the game. Even Germany is has slipped well behind what it was in the 1980s.
    So the process of industrial transfer already started in the 1980s and has been massive. Now the retards in Bruxelles and all the
    comprador regimes in U-rope are going for the coup de grace.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:32 pm

    Judging from sdelanounas, majority of New CNC and 3d printing in Russia is either entirely Russian design or manufactured in Russia from Japanese design and companies investments.

    Chinese ones are simply to fill a gap till Russian ones become more mainstream. Ministry of Industry and Trade pumped a lot into this field, and so did rostec.

    Germany was once main supplier of such tech, along with farming equipment. Now the rolls reverse and Russia is exporting such tech to Europe. Either by own designs or ones from EU moved to Russia.

    I can't imagine how Germans are actually feeling. At least not the "woke" ones.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:18 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    par far wrote:Is it fair to say, as Europe's industries go down the toilet, it will benefit China because they will move production to China.

    Not just China. In fact the whole of Asia is going to be far more profitable for industrial production, not just because of lower labour costs, but now also lower energy costs looking at the way things are going

    Gee ...
    Still living the myth of "lower labor cost" there?
    How charming Laughing
    I will tell you a secret, so please get closer, and don't tell that anyone!
    My friends in Tiencin and Shanghai are buying flats costing double my home.
    When I was doing due diligence with one of my buddies who has a furniture factory, specializing in kitchen cabinets, it turned out to be a dead end.
    Wonder why?
    Because in China, a regular cost of kitchen cabinets they are buying is about $12000.
    Twelve grand.
    If you just stand up in front of a new build apartment house in coastal China, it is +/- 1000 flats, and you can't buy a henhouse there, not having $300k.  
    Low labor cost Very Happy Laughing Very Happy Laughing
    You are fuckin'kidding Laughing Laughing

    I'll tell you 3 things ALAMO, which even you with your finger on the pulse of the Polish industrial and trade scene, might not be aware of the importance of

    1. China's middle class now certainly numbers in the hundreds of millions, and perhaps in another 10 years will be the size of the population of the European continent in total.
    Their ultra-rich population is larger than the populations of many smaller European countries.
    Of course there are hundreds of thousands of expensive, high-rate apartments being built in every Chinese city. Of course this demand, and moreover the rapidity of growth of this demand - spikes the price of modern furniture.
    However if you think that this means that they have no spare working hands anymore to work for a dollar a day then you're sorely mistaken. With the growth of prosperity comes the growth of inequality. There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese peasants moving from depressed land-plots to the cities. There is a huge urban underclass of poor who work as these same industrial labourers, 12-hours a day in manufactories and sweatshops. They live in conditions, where modern MDF-panel kitchen cabinets are far down on the list of priorities - they make do with simpler things.

    Were this not so then China would be busy importing cheap labour from wherever else like Russia and Europe are doing from Central Asia and the Middle East respectively. With their birth rate crisis they might have to turn to that sooner rather than later, but for now they still are very much capable of assembling kitchen cabinets at a fraction of what it costs to make them in Europe.

    2. I said Asia, not just China. China is developing very rapidly so we can assume that gradually the business of lower-value production will be increasingly taken up by Vietnam, Bangladesh and a host of other countries in the region. China will start to switch to more higher-value production though, and it has in fact, all the advantages in this segment as well.

    3. Really the main thing is not even the labour cost. That's important, but low energy prices are even more critical. Europe has always had the advantage due to well-developed electrical grids, efficient distribution and gas pipelines. With things going the way they are, one can easily see more LNG terminals being built in Asia, more nuclear power plants - and these are already the most efficient and cost-effective sources of energy. Europe's advantages will start to erode

    The EU is becoming increasingly transparent in pushing environmentalism as a means of ridding itself on its dependence on outside sources for energy supply, and robbing Russia of its geopolitical leverage specifically.
    That's all fine, but they and the US are insisting the rest of the world subscribe to the measures too. I'm all for green energy and phasing out pollution, but not via a scheme of coercion that screws growing competing centers of production in developing countries.
    The only way the EU's green energy production can be globally competitive is if they force everyone else to use green energy too.
    If the Europeans and Americans can't have their own fossil fuels, then no-one else can have theirs either.

    They do this by essentially imposing a carbon tax on anyone wishing to export to them. Either products or energy. And a variety of protectionist measures dressed up as safety/enviromental/whatever regulations besides.
    If what you're selling was made with dirty energy or polluting factories then pay the tax, you figure that into your selling price and as a result you become less competitive.

    Already this is forcing tons of Russian manufacturers to embark on modernization efforts to filter out impurities, close down more coal power plants, introduce environmental legislation in the Russian parliament.
    Our biggest market is Europe and always will be so the attitude seems to be - if you can't beat them, join them. To be honest it's not such a problem. Russia has the money and technology to play the Europeans at their own game. Creating new hydrogen production plants, environmentally-friendly products and organic food for export to Europe, competing for contracts to build new solar energy plants and so on.

    China will likely manage as well.
    However for ASEAN countries, for India, for nascent industries in Africa and Latin America, for the Middle East with its huge reliance on fossil fuels export - it's a huge problem.
    Their economies have the potential to be wiped out with tariffs and penalties before they even get going.

    This is not good ultimately for Russia either, as with Europe becoming less interested in Russian gas, oil and coal - Russia still needs markets to sell all its huge reserves of those to.

    The trouble for the Euro-American environmental strategy, is that their market is simply becoming a less significant share of the total world market with every year. More and more countries can simply trade between themselves and ignore the EU's and America's carbon-neutral pressure.
    This is why they are trying to push through all these changes at the international level, at the UN, via the Kyoto conference and so on.
    If the Atlanticist agenda in this area ultimately fails however, or only just partially succeeds - then what you'll end up with, is the EU just using a form of significantly more expensive energy than Asian producers. It will be the EU instead, that will find their production uncompetitive in the global market.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:02 am

    All the fossil fuels have historically short lifetimes. So it is in no way a problem for Russia if demand for its natural gas and oil
    fall off. In fact, this is not going to happen. Natural gas is wasted as a fuel. It is more valuable as a plastics and chemicals
    feedstock. Oil is not trash if someone does not want to burn it either. And more is not being made in the ground at any rate that
    matters (e.g. fossilization of biological detritus). In addition, Russia does not have to develop new gas fields at the current rate
    if the demand is going to go away. People are obsessed with the notion that Russia depends on fossil fuel exports for its survival.
    This is total BS.

    Russia is leading the way with nuclear power. Not China and certainly nobody else. Windmills and solar panel farms are boutique
    and overhyped beyond all measure. These "green" energy sources have massive lifecycle CO2 emissions for the power they generate.
    Solar panels need 20 years just to cover the CO2 cost in making them. The crappy ones (mostly from China) do not last much beyond
    10 years. Windmills do not last 60 years like nuclear power plants and the material bulk per unit of power output is much higher than
    nuclear plants.

    Maybe magnetic confinement fusion will eventually pan out, but I would not bet on it happening in the next 40 years. Hybrid
    fission-fusion plants are vastly more likely to become viable.

    U-rope is already finding out that its green energy is not what the propaganda made it out to be. But the official recognition of
    this reality is not coming anytime soon. Green energy is a racket and rackets are untouchable.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu Dec 16, 2021 6:37 am

    Any technology can be improved over time so wind and solar and even wave technologies might not be reliable or very efficient but over time with use and investment they can become more efficient, and actually make more sense in some places than in others... there are places where the wind never stops blowing, and rather than the huge wind mill type bladed generators I have seen smaller more compact vertical aerofoil type devices that can generate energy no matter which direction the wind is coming from without needing to turn to face the direction of the wind.

    New technology in terms of electric motors should allow improvements in power generation too, where a set of pedals could be put in front of people to pedal in their spare time or while working... the physical workout would be good for many people and the electricity generated could power minor things like lighting or fans in dark or hot places.

    I mean even little things like putting generators in downpipes on buildings so water falling on the roof turns wheels or spins generators as it goes down the building, and storing it in water tanks for irrigation of patches of grass or plants instead of just flushing it down the sewers.

    Put a generator on the wheel of your bike so while you ride to work your phone and laptop get charged up, or it charges the LED light system on the bike.
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    Post  ALAMO Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:30 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    I'll tell you 3 things ALAMO, which even you with your finger on the pulse of the Polish industrial and trade scene, might not be aware of the importance of

    You don't need to tell me one thing buddy, I do business with the Chinese and China for 10+ years. I have friends there.
    The things you are saying are true, but I was not addressing the social structure and cultural code of the Chinese society, nor its internal migration.
    A friend of mine just bought an apartment in the Shenzen area, and she has more neighbors than inhabitants of Monako, Lichtenstein, and Andorra combined Laughing Laughing
    There would be a space for Vatican City either Twisted Evil
    It is all obvious to me.
    The only thing I have commented is a common myth about cheap labor in China.
    It is not, for at least several years.
    First of all, we must consider if talking about HK or mainland China.
    Salaries are distinguishing higher in HK than in the mainland.
    Still, even in mainland China, a qualified worker already gets a salary representing the European level - if we remember what does it mean.
    Sure they have millions of low-paid, low-qualified jobs out there.
    But it is just the same story here, the most popular grocery store here advertises for paying its employees 800 euro gross salary. A month, not a week.
    And that is significantly better than let's say Bulgaria, a formal EU member where you would get about E500 for the same job.
    China is not a cheap labor country anymore.
    It is extremely industrialized, with well skilled&effective working force, capable to meet the set goals in business. That is the main advantage there. Not the labor cost.

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    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:30 pm

    ALAMO wrote:What IF this whole Die Gruene is just a US asset?

    You kidding? She IS an US asset, clear as day. She is already actively destroying the DE-RU relationship as quick as possible, what would otherwise this bimbo expect to do in the Foreign Ministry, a job for which she has no competences at all? The last one from the scumbag is the expulsion of further two Russian diplomats. She is very expediently doing her best to destroy her own country and unleash WWIII as a good "transatlantic citizen" censored

    miketheterrible wrote:Europe can't wait as they need the energy, so they have nothing to bargain with. It's like they are holding the gun to their own head and making demands to Russia or they will shoot.

    They are doing literally that Laughing Laughing Laughing

    flamming_python wrote:Not just China. In fact the whole of Asia is going to be far more profitable for industrial production, not just because of lower labour costs, but now also lower energy costs looking at the way things are going

    Like 20-30 times cheaper electricity costs in RU compared to EU is no joke for most energy intensive industries, once Western privileges and contention measures are removed, Asia will wipe out the European industry. It is unavoidable in the current conditions.

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    Post  ALAMO Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:14 pm

    I don't mean "she" in particular, but the whole Die Gruene Partei.
    Those people are insane, and acting in harm of the German state.

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    Post  GarryB Fri Dec 17, 2021 5:18 am

    I like the stupidity in the west... the more sanctions and petty false accusations will drive Russia to do what it should be doing anyway... look to the rest of the world for trade and cooperation.

    Some people seem to think that dealing with rich people will make you rich faster... which is bullshit... rich people are the tightest people I know and they get rich and get richer by being tight bastards.

    Poor people actually tend to be more generous of their time and their money, and I think Russia will benefit more from trade ties with Africa and Asia and central and south America and I am not suggesting Asia is poor, but they do have a different culture to the west... western culture is toxic.

    The west divided the world into three components... themselves, the commies that opposed them, and the rest.... first, second, and third world.

    Second world is the enemy, while the third world is the resource centre.... the living blood supply to power the west... the west buys resources and material at bargain basement prices... 100 dollars for a lump of gold or a lump of gemstone.... send it to the west and clean it up and cut it and it is worth millions... the kid who dug it up might get a dollar for that... it has been that way for most of history and it is time for it to change... it is time for these countries to develop and grow too.

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:31 am



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    Post  ALAMO Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:45 am

    Gazprom's net profit is tenfold this year vs. 2020.
    I must find where I saw that, to show you, as forgot the source already Laughing
    The general comment is, that they can fill the NS2 with concrete now, as it is already paid off several times Laughing

    Edit : of course, where else rather than official financial statement of the Gazprom Laughing

    https://ir.gazprom-neft.com/news-and-events/news/2021/gazprom-neft-delivers-10-fold-growth-of-net-profit-for-9m-2021/

    Holly shit! What a Face

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-sees-record-sales-2021-sets-up-risk-fund-2021-10-19/

    If that 1.19 trl RUB investment plan is not some mistake in "billion-trillion" translation to English, that is pure insanity.
    They invest 30% of the revenue Shocked

    They have set up a reserve fund of 726bln RUB.
    And I have already found where that reserve fund will go.
    Wanna guess?
    Naah, I will spoil your fun.
    It will be probably used for a pipeline Power of Siberia 2, connecting the Jamal/NW cluster with the SE system, connecting Mongolia, NE China, and downward to Myanmar, India/PAK ...

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    Post  owais.usmani Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:49 am

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    Post  ALAMO Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:05 am

    ... just what I have said 3 days ago ... Embarassed

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    Post  Hole Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:48 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:


    Maybe she is a russian agent? unshaven
    Laughing Laughing Laughing

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    Post  Hole Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:54 pm

    ALAMO wrote:Gazprom's net profit is tenfold this year vs. 2020.
    I must find where I saw that, to show you, as forgot the source already Laughing
    The general comment is, that they can fill the NS2 with concrete now, as it is already paid off several times Laughing

    Edit : of course, where else rather than official financial statement of the Gazprom Laughing

    https://ir.gazprom-neft.com/news-and-events/news/2021/gazprom-neft-delivers-10-fold-growth-of-net-profit-for-9m-2021/

    Holly shit! What a Face

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-sees-record-sales-2021-sets-up-risk-fund-2021-10-19/

    If that 1.19 trl RUB investment plan is not some mistake in "billion-trillion" translation to English, that is pure insanity.
    They invest 30% of the revenue Shocked

    They have set up a reserve fund of 726bln RUB.
    And I have already found where that reserve fund will go.
    Wanna guess?
    Naah, I will spoil your fun.
    It will be probably used for a pipeline Power of Siberia 2, connecting the Jamal/NW cluster with the SE system, connecting Mongolia, NE China, and downward to Myanmar, India/PAK ...

    And that is where some of the money will be going
    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3 - Page 35 W500_l10
    The planned Lakhta-2 centre
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    Post  kvs Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:49 pm

    I need to correct my post above. The lifecycle CO2 emissions for solar panels is around 50 g per kWh compared to 1000 g/kWh for
    coal. The 20 year figure is for the nominal cost of panels to pay themselves off. But that is from 20 years ago so is now cheaper.
    In any case if they last only 10 years then they are not worth the bother.

    https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56487.pdf

    Nuclear power produces less than 10 g of CO2 per kWh. Nuclear power has zero intermittency issues.







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    Post  ALAMO Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:26 pm

    Hole wrote:
    And that is where some of the money will be going
    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3 - Page 35 W500_l10
    The planned Lakhta-2 centre

    Naaah, the good thing is that it won't be spent on that.
    These kinds of administrative buildings are being made with regular cash flow, and maybe some short-term investment credit, if your own capital can be more profitable than the cost of credit.
    The big deals need big bucks. That one is a bargain.
    The point is, that redirecting a third of your sell into investment is insane. Not the profit, not the net profit, but the income ...
    This ratio means an overall reconstruction. And I mean it.
    Russia is reorienting towards Asia at a full scale, in real faster than the Europeans manage to understand the process.
    That is the whole gas shit all about.
    Once they were busy with yapping on NS2, Russkies made two steps forward already.
    Turned the valve, just like that.
    If they will sell to Europe? But of course. They have the needed infrastructure.
    But the volume? And the price? Well ...

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    Post  Krepost Fri Dec 17, 2021 7:39 pm

    Hole wrote:
    ALAMO wrote:Gazprom's net profit is tenfold this year vs. 2020.
    I must find where I saw that, to show you, as forgot the source already Laughing
    The general comment is, that they can fill the NS2 with concrete now, as it is already paid off several times Laughing

    Edit : of course, where else rather than official financial statement of the Gazprom Laughing

    https://ir.gazprom-neft.com/news-and-events/news/2021/gazprom-neft-delivers-10-fold-growth-of-net-profit-for-9m-2021/

    Holly shit! What a Face

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-sees-record-sales-2021-sets-up-risk-fund-2021-10-19/

    If that 1.19 trl RUB investment plan is not some mistake in "billion-trillion" translation to English, that is pure insanity.
    They invest 30% of the revenue Shocked

    They have set up a reserve fund of 726bln RUB.
    And I have already found where that reserve fund will go.
    Wanna guess?
    Naah, I will spoil your fun.
    It will be probably used for a pipeline Power of Siberia 2, connecting the Jamal/NW cluster with the SE system, connecting Mongolia, NE China, and downward to Myanmar, India/PAK ...

    And that is where some of the money will be going
    Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #3 - Page 35 W500_l10
    The planned Lakhta-2 centre

    I don't like this Lakhta-2.
    Too much "bling-bling".
    More appealing to Middle-Eastern tastes (like Dubai, Qatar etc.)

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    Post  Hole Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:25 pm

    It´s supposed to look like a gas flare.
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    Post  ALAMO Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:53 pm

    You know what I like the most? Laughing
    When they are looking pics of Lakhta, as a wide perspective, and on the first layer there is some God-forgotten misery.
    Gee ... that is a real clue of propaganda lads!
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:21 am

    ALAMO wrote:You know what I like the most? Laughing
    When they are looking pics of Lakhta, as a wide perspective, and on the first layer there is some God-forgotten misery.
    Gee ... that is a real clue of propaganda lads!

    Yeah

    Was there a year ago.

    Basically Lakhta is this kind of funny suburb of St. Petersburg. Well not even a suburb.
    I mean there's just a railway station there, and some old dachas, I'm not sure many people even live there permanently. And I mean old dachas, many of these wooden homes date back to the 40s or 50s perhaps.

    And then this skyscraper with an attached shopping center thing just appears there. Tallest skyscraper in Europe they say scratch

    Of course situating this skyscraper there was a last-minute thing, in actuality. Gazprom was set on building it practically right within the city, but the entire population just told them no. So they relocated their plans for a skyscraper, from Okhta, to Lakhta. And now they want to build a second one, which is this spire thing.

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    Post  lancelot Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:52 am

    Solar panels can pay themselves off in 2-3 years. You are using two decades outdated calculations.
    The electricity they produce is still too expensive unless you are so remote you can't get a grid connection to your site though.
    Especially when you take into consideration the price of the backup generation capacity for it.
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    Post  kvs Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:23 am

    lancelot wrote:Solar panels can pay themselves off in 2-3 years. You are using two decades outdated calculations.
    The electricity they produce is still too expensive unless you are so remote you can't get a grid connection to your site though.
    Especially when you take into consideration the price of the backup generation capacity for it.

    Your numbers are BS.

    For example:

    https://www.hydroquebec.com/solar/costs.html

    A 6 kW system would pay itself off after 30.4 years.

    The installation cost is $18,000 CAD and it generates $592 CAD of electricity per year.

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    Post  lancelot Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:27 am

    Sure. In Quebec. In a more southern latitude you can payback the energy cost of manufacturing the solar panels in 3 years.
    With installation costs, etc, it may take twice that.
    LMFS
    LMFS


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    Post  LMFS Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:11 am

    kvs wrote:I need to correct my post above.   The lifecycle CO2 emissions for solar panels is around 50 g per kWh compared to 1000 g/kWh for
    coal.  The 20 year figure is for the nominal cost of panels to pay themselves off.   But that is from 20 years ago so is now cheaper.
    In any case if they last only 10 years then they are not worth the bother.

    https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56487.pdf

    Nuclear power produces less than 10 g of CO2 per kWh.   Nuclear power has zero intermittency issues.


    kvs, solar and wind are here to stay, they pay off and make full sense, they just cannot be rushed beyond the current level of technology and investment capability. The West is going to fail because their leaders are idiots, not because renewables per se are a no go. For instance at a home they are fantastic, able to produce all the energy an individual uses and in many cases even the one needed to drive. You just cannot try to substitute at once all existing generation and satisfy energy intensive industries in countries with little sun, that is not specially easy and will take a lot of time to accomplish.

    Those CO2 numbers above depend on the generating mix used in the production process. PV modules have a design life of 30 years currently. The times when they did not recover the energy used in producing them are long gone.

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