Russia's Foreign Policy

Another thoughtful and unscripted Q&A from Lavrov

Sergey Lavrov's interview with TASS December 27, 2022. As the opening Q indicates, Lavrov is asked to speculate about how several major issues will develop in 2023:

Question: The main event of the outgoing year was the beginning of a special military operation in Ukraine, as well as the subsequent development of the situation, including the unprecedented deterioration of relations with the West. In your opinion, can the conflict in Ukraine drag on, say, for five years? What should we prepare for? Is a direct military confrontation with the countries supporting Kiev possible?

Sergey Lavrov: The actions of the countries of the "collective West" and V.Zelensky, who is under their control, confirm the global nature of the Ukrainian crisis. It is no secret that the strategic goal of the United States and its NATO allies is "defeating Russia on the battlefield" as a mechanism for significantly weakening or even destroying our country. To achieve this goal, our opponents are ready for a lot.

The main beneficiary of the "hot conflict" is the United States, which seeks to extract the maximum benefit from it both economically and militarily and strategically. At the same time, Washington is solving an important geopolitical task – to break the traditional ties between Russia and Europe and further subjugate European satellites.

The United States is doing everything to prolong the conflict and make it more violent. The Pentagon openly plans orders for the American defense industry for years to come, constantly raises the bar of military spending on the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and demands the same from other members of the anti-Russian alliance. The Kiev regime is deliberately pumped with the most modern weapons, including samples that have not yet been adopted by the Western armies themselves, apparently in order to see how they work in combat conditions. Since February of this year, the volume of military assistance to the regime has exceeded $ 40 billion, which is comparable to the military budgets of many European countries. We also know that in American political circles they are increasingly thinking about drawing Ukraine into NATO .

At the same time, Westerners declare their desire to remain "above the fray" and the unacceptability of a direct clash between NATO and Russia. This is pure hypocrisy. Already, the member states of the alliance have become a de facto party to the conflict: Western PMCs and military instructors are fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Americans transmit satellite and other intelligence data to the Ukrainian command in almost real time, participate in the planning and implementation of combat operations.

In turn, the regime is trying to drag the Americans and other NATO members even deeper into the whirlpool of the conflict in the hope of making inevitable their head-on collision with the Russian Army. Suffice it to recall the provocation of November 15 with the fall of a Ukrainian air defense missile on the territory of Poland, which V. Zelensky falsely tried to pass off as a Russian one. It is good that Washington and Brussels were smart enough then not to succumb to this trick. But the incident showed that the regime would stop at nothing.

We do not cease to warn our enemies in the West about the danger of the course they have taken to escalate the Ukrainian crisis. With the contingent that they have cultivated in Kiev, the risk of uncontrolled development of the situation remains very high. It is important to prevent a catastrophe.

As for the duration of the conflict, the ball is in the court of the regime and Washington behind it. They can stop pointless resistance at any moment. Our proposals for the demilitarization and denazification of the territories controlled by the regime, the elimination of threats to Russia's security emanating from there, including our new lands – the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions – are well known to the enemy. It's a small matter: to perform them in a good way. Otherwise, the Russian Army will decide the issue.

Question: The question of the possibility of using nuclear weapons has become particularly acute this year, even those who are not at all interested in news from the world of politics began to talk about it. Should we expect this "nuclear" rhetoric to intensify in 2023?

Sergey Lavrov: This question should be addressed, first of all, to Westerners. We note with deep concern the propaganda in the United States and in the West as a whole around the topic of nuclear weapons.

On the one hand, irresponsible speculation that Russia is about to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine is constantly spinning there. There are references to some statements of the political leadership of Russia. But in reality, there were no such statements.

We are talking about something completely different: the West's policy of total containment of our country is extremely dangerous. It carries the risk of sliding into a direct armed clash of nuclear powers. We warn about this and repeat it again and again that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it must never be unleashed.

On the other hand, the nuclear signals coming from the West are very confrontational. There seems to have completely discarded any decency. In particular, the well-known Lyudmila Truss made a vivid note, saying without a shadow of a doubt during the election debates that she was quite ready to give the order for a nuclear strike. However, Washington went the furthest – there some "unnamed officials" from the Pentagon actually threatened to inflict a "decapitation blow" on the Kremlin, and in fact we are talking about the threat of physical elimination of the Head of the Russian state. If such ideas are actually nurtured by someone, that someone should think very carefully about the possible consequences of such plans.

Not to mention the over-the-top provocations of the Kiev regime. V.Zelensky agreed to demand preventive nuclear strikes by NATO countries against Russia. This, too, crosses the boundaries of what is permissible. However, we have not heard this from the leaders of the regime.

We cannot but correlate such escapades with the destabilizing elements of the US doctrinal attitudes. After all, the Americans "allowed themselves" including "disarming" strikes. We also take into account the dimensionlessness of the criteria by which Washington determines the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. They talk about certain "vital interests", which are not specified in the American doctrine in any way and, apparently, can, if necessary, be extrapolated to almost any terrain and circumstances.

We continue to call on the West to exercise maximum restraint in this extremely sensitive area. To minimize nuclear risks, it is important in practice to remain committed to the postulate on the inadmissibility of nuclear war, confirmed by the countries of the nuclear "five" in a joint statement of January 3, 2022.

We further drew attention to these basic axioms in our statement on the prevention of nuclear war of November 2, 2022, which, in particular, emphasizes that Russia stands for the formation of an updated, more stable architecture of international security based on ensuring predictability and global strategic stability, as well as respect for the principles of equality, indivisible security and mutual consideration of the interests of the parties.

Question: Our country's relations with the European Union are now at an extremely low level. Is there a possibility that we will close ourselves off from each other completely, severing all ties, both humanitarian and economic? Are we going to appoint a Permanent Representative of Russia to the EU?

Sergey Lavrov: Of course, our relations with the European Union are now at the lowest historical level. The reasons are well known. After the start of a special military operation in Brussels, following the United States and NATO, in fact, they declared us a hybrid war. The head of EU diplomacy, Jeanne Borrell, was one of the first to say that Russia should be defeated on the battlefield.

We see how the ruling circles of the EU countries act to the detriment of the vital interests and well-being of their citizens. In fact, they unquestioningly follow in the wake of the anti-Russian course of the overseas hegemon on almost all issues, and sometimes even pull ahead. There are a lot of examples here. Suffice it to mention the US ban on European states to maintain a dialogue with our country in the field of energy, which for decades provided Europeans with unprecedented prosperity.

Of course, there will no longer be "business as usual" with such counterparties. They do not intend to knock on the closed door or initiate joint projects. Thank God, the world does not converge on the European Union for us, we have many friends and like-minded people in other parts of the world. If and when there is a bitter hangover on the European side from the current Russophobic rage, and then sobering up, if there are clear nationally oriented politicians who understand the advantages of an equal and mutually beneficial partnership with Russia – I assure you, there will be no problems on our part. In the meantime, there is what it is. We are realists. We will continue to work with the few Europeans who value friendship with Russia. We will not cooperate with Russophobes.

As for the appointment of a new Permanent Representative of Russia to the EU, this is not a quick process. The Head of the EU Delegation visited Russia in September this year and is working. In the current conditions, it is necessary to proceed from the real volume of contacts against the background of openly hostile incantations of EU leaders about the need to isolate Russia and defeat it.

Question: The dialogue with the United States has now also turned into a series of mutual accusations, and it seems that the two countries literally have nothing to talk about. Is this true? Are the Americans trying behind the scenes, without advertising it, to negotiate with us, for example, on Ukraine, on disarmament and other issues?

Sergey Lavrov: Russian-American relations are indeed in an extremely deplorable state. Practically frozen due to the fault of Washington. His confrontational anti-Russian course is becoming more acute and comprehensive. Objectively, it is not possible to maintain normal communication with the Administration of Joe Biden, which declares the goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on our country.

We consistently explain to the Americans that the deliberate deterioration of interstate relations is not our style. However, when building a dialogue in any circumstances, we proceed from the principle of reciprocity. That is, we act, as a rule, on the principle of "an eye for an eye", but not necessarily symmetrically.

At this stage, we are not going to come up with any initiatives. This, for example, applies to the discussion of a possible new agreement or arrangements in the field of strategic offensive arms, as well as on mutual security guarantees. The United States refused to negotiate on the latter issue on its own under the pretext of the Ukrainian crisis. We have taken note of that. At the same time, we remain committed to the START Treaty, the basic principles of which are being eroded by Washington.

In our planning, we take into account the principle that worked during the Cold War – the principle of peaceful coexistence of states with different political and socio-economic systems. It may well come to the court in the new geopolitical conditions.

Taking into account the special responsibility of Russia and the United States as two nuclear superpowers for the fate of mankind, I proceed from the fact that normal relations between our countries would benefit everyone. However, given Washington's openly hostile actions, it is not possible to conduct business as usual.

Now it is difficult to say something about the implementation of full-fledged bilateral contacts between the foreign ministries. We have repeatedly stressed at various levels, including the highest level, that we do not shy away from a constructive dialogue, but conditions must be created for its establishment, and possible meetings should not be held for the sake of a tick, as we say, they should be filled with specifics. There were no significant ideas in this regard from the Americans.

For our part, we are ready to discuss security issues both in the context of Ukraine and in a broader, strategic plan. Let's wait until Washington "matures" to the realization of the defectiveness of its current course and the lack of alternatives to building relations with us on a mutually respectful, equal basis with the obligatory consideration of legitimate Russian interests.

Western partners about to be shown the door

Black Diamond
@blackdiammon
·
Dec 30
Putin presented a proposal to terminate the international treaties of the Council of Europe with respect to the Russian Federation.

Bye bye EU

Will be a few EU countries wishing they could do the same... the west has seriously lost its way.

I'm a dumb dumb. Explain like I'm five.

A totally brilliant analysis, a bit long but right on target.

Turkey's Erdogan Flips Syria On Its Head
by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Jan 08, 2023 - 12:00 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

While we are all, rightfully, worried about what’s going on in Ukraine, those sneaky Russians are shoring up their situation on the south shores of the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. 

As reported last week the meeting between Russia, Turkiye, and Syria took place between their Defense Ministers where they all described the talks as ‘constructive’ towards solving multiple outstanding issues like refugees and the backing of radicals. This meeting was put in motion by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the Moscow Times article notes:

"In November, Erdogan said a meeting with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was a possibility, after cutting diplomatic ties with Damascus throughout the 11-year conflict. In mid-December, he indicated that he could meet with Assad after the two countries’ defense and foreign ministers meet. “We want to take a step as Syria, Turkey and Russia,” he said at the time."

The issues discussed are especially important for Erdogan as the protracted war is sapping his popularity at home in the face of an ongoing pull out of western capital from Turkey that has seen the lira go through what can only be described as a hyperinflation since 2018. With elections on the horizon and Erdogan’s position tenuous for the first time in his political career, moves need to be made now to improve things. Allowing the millions of Syrian refugees the opportunity to go home would be a big win for Erdogan politically.

This is also a good use of Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, since he’s not in charge of the operation in Ukraine and hasn’t been since October, with good reason. Shoigu, I’m sure, has been preparing for this meeting for months, laying the groundwork for talks between Turkiye and Syria that are long overdue.

As Alex Mercouris pointed out in a recent Duran video, Turkiye’s president Erdogan set three steps for a resolution of the conflict between it and Syria. This meeting of the Defense Ministers is the 2nd of them. The Foreign Ministers are now clear to meet. Presumably, after that, Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will meet with the Russians as negotiator to hammer out an official end to Turkiye’s involvement in the Syrian War which began more than a decade ago.

Without Turkiye’s involvement in Syria, the Neocons’ goal of strangling Russia on gas imports to Europe never happens. This was the main impetus behind the Syrian War in the first place. To get him on board, Erdogan had to be bribed with a massive land grab, which he’s tried to accomplish.

But when he didn’t do enough to start a war with Russia in November 2015 after Turkiye supposedly shot down a Russian SU-24, he was rewarded with a coup attempt against him led by the CIA and US military out of the Incerlik airbase, by all accounts. He was saved, apparently, by an early warning from Putin and ferried out to Iran to issue his counter-attack orders to the Turkish military on the night of the coup attempt.

This was the beginning of the end of Turkiye’s relationship with NATO and the US. 

The road between Turkey and Russia to this point has been incredibly rocky. Putin has been exceedingly patient with Erdogan over a dozen issues, his back-pedaling and, at times, double-dealing. But the reality is that, like him or not, every year since Russia’s move into Syria Erdogan has acted in his interest, creating leverage on the ground by taking territory in Syria, making outrageous claims against the Eastern Mediterranean, while playing the West and Russia against each other on NATO expansion, refugee policy, and his support of Azerbaijan and Ukraine.

I’ve even come to the conclusion that his repeated violations of Greek airspace, something that no one else does in the world and the Greeks are well within their rights to stop with force, is likely part of his whole “Crazy Sultan” schtick to keep people on edge. As I’ve said many times Erdogan plays both sides, dropping a white or black stone on the Geopolitical Go board when it suits his agenda. And his agenda today is nearly complete; an independent yet still pivotal Turkiye.

So, against that backdrop his making nice with Syria is a bombshell that the West shouldn’t be surprised about since Erdogan has been throwing wrenches into their works since the beginning of the Ukraine War in February.

But the timing of this is the most inconvenient for the US/UK neocons who are clearly ramping up a 2023 regime change operation against Putin in Russia.

When you put it all together — Erdogan facing stiff opposition in the polls, hyperinflation, unrest at home, and an election later this year — ending the war in Syria had to be tops on his to-do list for 2023. It won’t come without consequences. And while he’s tried to play ‘possum on his real intentions for years, is anyone really surprised that he’s making this move now? At some point everyone runs out of room to maneuver and you have to not only choose your side, but announce it to everyone and take the reaction to it.

So, John Bolton’s mustache is all aquiver over this and he wants Turkiye booted from NATO. Clearly this is because Erdogan is blocking Sweden and Finland’s accession which apparently is more important to Bolton than maintaining supply routes to US troops trapped in Syria and Iraq should Erdogan expel the US from Incerlik in response.

Con Coughlin at The Telegraph has come to this same conclusion in a screed that reads like a prelude to another attempt to get rid of this agitator in Ankara.

"Turkey’s decision to press ahead with the Russian purchase [S-400’s] has not only put it on a collision course with Washington, which is threatening to scrap the F-35 deal at the end of the month; it also shows Ankara’s utter contempt for the Nato alliance, an attitude that key European member states such as Britain must demonstrate they are no longer able to tolerate."

His conclusion, Turkiye’s contempt for NATO, which I can’t really argue with, is grounds for its dismissal from the alliance. But, as I said, this kind of reaction is exactly what Erdogan needs from the West, who have treated him and Turkiye as a fifth wheel for a long time.

The neocons can frame his antics however they like but have they really thought through what happens after that? Knowing the neocon mindset, I don’t think they have. They are so focused on Russia and convinced of the outcome of their war against it that they can just kick one of the largest armies in the world to the curb with immense geostrategic importance in the crotch and it won’t matter.

Without Turkiye’s backing in Idlib, the rebels there won’t survive in the long run. Erdogan will ratchet up his attacks on the SDF Kurds in the east backed by the US. This leaves Israel in a more tenuous position as well, surviving really only on Russia’s continued good graces.

Because the recent reports of US troops coming under intense missile attacks in Deir Ezzor where they are protecting the stealing of Syrian oil are a signpost that both Syria and Iran have had their shackles taken off by Putin in confronting the US in Syria.

In light of Angela Merkel’s admission of the Minsk Accords being a ruse to arm Ukraine, I don’t think you need further proof that Putin now has his legal ducks in a row to take the fight directly to the US, knowing that conflict is inevitable. Think of it this way. Before Merkel’s admission, the West was able to credibly compose the narrative that Putin unjustly invaded Ukraine. Guys like Con Coughlin still calling Russia ‘a rogue state’ is ridiculous when the pretense of diplomacy is gone. You can’t put that genie back in the bottle and still declare Russia’s move into Ukraine on 2/24/2022 was wholly unprovoked. With a viable Minsk document in place it gave Putin’s new ‘allies’ a public reason to point to when stabbing him in the back if Russia faltered on the battlefield or their proxies like Syria.

Now, with that narrative blown up — not for the normies, but for the Heads of State of the Global South — Putin is justified to no longer play footsie with the US through proxies. 

There is no reason to not cross redlines that were always there as olive branches to form the basis of future diplomatic efforts. The current crop of morons and psychopaths leading the West with their prep school antics are irredeemable in the eyes of not just the Russians, but also now the Turks, Iranians, Chinese, Pakistanis, etc. There are consequences to bragging on Twitter like Michael McFaul that as an ambassador he openly lied, or worse former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo making it effectively State Dept. policy to lie because that was his training at the CIA.

Need more proof? Putin just sold Iran dozens of SU-35s. This was another implicit redline to placate the US he just crossed, casually I might add. As long as Iran had a joke of an air force Putin could maintain at least the pretense that he was listening to the US.

But, now all of that is out the window. Iran is selling Russia drones to wipe out the Ukrainian army and Russia is sending Iran SU-35s to end the threat of Israel doing any more long-range bombing runs in Iran. The old stalemates are gone.

Given everything that’s happening is it any wonder that the newly-resurrected Bibi Netanyahu in Israel has stepped up the bombings of the Damascus Airport, apparently now shutting it down? Are we surprised that he is really saber-rattling against Iran? But at the same time his new defense minister is having second doubts about supporting Ukraine. How do the British neocons square that position with Russia being the rogue state here?

The point is that Putin had to hold out hope for diplomacy and not cross a line until the US/EU came clean with their lying and duplicity. It had to be public before he could do this, otherwise the fragile coalition he’s formed to combat the West could collapse. In this respect, Merkel did him a favor. She also did Davos the favor of framing the US for all the troubles now.

Now he’s crossing them all and Erdogan is following along.

I get why the neocons are pissed, but they have no one to blame but themselves for being sucked into a war with unreliable European partners, who have a very different agenda.

Remember, also, Erdogan’s very troubled relationship with Merkel over the migrant issues and EU accession. The EU dangled that in front of him for years while he threatened to flood Europe with more migrants. That standoff broke down a couple of years ago and now Erdogan has to allow the Syrians and the Lebanese a path to going home, if only to unburden the Turkish economy and social fabric. So, Erdogan has always known who Merkel really was. She’s exactly as Mercouris has described her in the past, someone juggling all of these balls with the intent of maintaining the status quo. That status quo was buying time for the Davos agenda to mature. That’s all it was.

I’ve always maintained that Putin and his staff utilize parallel-aggression to counter the neocons’ implacable commitment to being on offense. They push in one theater, he pushes in another equally. And what’s interesting here is that at some point the whole ‘Putin is the aggressor’ narrative will collapse in normie space when the stakes get high enough because the people of the West aren’t committed to why Ukraine or Syria is our fight.

These deals were never really sealed.

It means that Syria will shoot down an Israeli F-16 at some point and Israel will have to take it. Or it will provoke Bibi to do something so rash that no one will be able to spin it in his favor.

Davos is hanging Israel out to dry at the UN, driving the Neocons to the point of alcoholism.

Either way, what Putin has done here, with Erdogan’s help, is turn the entire power dynamic of aggression on its head. Now, the Russians can allow Syria and Iran to ‘defend themselves’ while keeping his hands mostly clean there. Now the real ‘bluff calling’ phase of this situation begins. Now, we’ll see how long “Biden” will keep troops in Syria, stealing oil and enforcing sanctions that Turkiye will make redundant in a few weeks?

Expect regime change operations in Turkiye this fall. Expect stepped-up Israeli aggression against both Syria and Iran until such time as Iran’s IRGC air force is strong enough to defend itself.

The timer is ticking on all of the conflicts in this region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen.

And the key to it all was always getting Erdogan to flip them all on their heads by helping expose the mendacity of this generation of ‘leaders’ in the West.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkeys-erdogan-flips-syria-its-head

Another prophetic cartoon, this time from 1925. Note the nationality of the soldier in the background.

FT: The West failed to convince the countries of Africa and Latin America to toughen their approach to Russia, 02.19.2023.

The British newspaper Financial Times expressed the opinion that Western countries tried to use the Munich Security Conference in order to convince the countries of Africa and Latin America to toughen their foreign policy towards Russia.

These efforts, according to FT quoted by TASS, ended in failure.

“Western leaders have failed to convey to the leaders of the countries of the so-called global south the idea that Russia’s actions in Ukraine threaten the security not only of Europe, but of the whole world,” the article says.

It is noted that the issues of rising inflation and energy prices were a higher priority for representatives of African and Latin American states than the conflict in Ukraine.

Earlier, Politico stated that the West felt the end of the existing world order after the Munich Conference.

It was also reported that the President of Senegal Macky Sall intends to take part in the Russia-Africa summit.

https://russian.rt.com/world/news/1113465-afrika-latinskaya-amerika-rossiya-otnosheniya

Another prophetic cartoon, this time from 1925. Note the nationality of the soldier in the background.

Excellent cartoon and at the core of why the west are such aggressive bastards towards China and Russia... because they know they (the west) came essentially from nothing and that China and Russia and Africa and Asia etc etc all have the potential to be great in their own right so they use their position and power and money to keep everyone else down so they can't become a rival...

FT: The West failed to convince the countries of Africa and Latin America to toughen their approach to Russia,

Their problem was that they were trying to scare the rest of the world into thinking Russia was the west... an arrogant imperial power wanting to steal resources and technology and anything else of value from them... you know... like the west does.

But the rest of the world already know with their dealings with Russia that they are different.

Welcome, so you might be interested in joining our growing Clubs?

OR 'shit, we don't want to be left behind!'


AZ
@AZgeopolitics
·
6h
The Sultan of Oman called Putin. The leaders discussed:

relations between the two countries and transport and logistics projects

the situation in the Middle East

expansion of trade and economic cooperation