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    Arms Embargo: Potentially Expiring October 2020

    crod
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    Post  crod on Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:07 am

    interesting points https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/moscow-is-not-buying-pompeos-iran-snapback-sanctions-logic/ particularly about how Russia may choose to use Iran as a carrot/stick with KSA over the oil line and future military sales and other ME countries for future military sales. Brushes off the possible israeli pressure a bit.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov comments: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/448683/Lavrov-calls-U-S-attempts-to-impose-arms-embargo-on-Iran-ridiculous
    and here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russia-rejects-us-drive-for-permanent-iran-arms-embargo/2020/06/08/c41c83f2-a9bd-11ea-a43b-be9f6494a87d_story.html

    Will be interesting to see what China will do? Perhaps not much? https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/will-china-become-a-major-arms-supplier-to-iran/

    no idea how reliable i-24 news is: https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/americas/1591687415-republicans-to-unveil-massive-sanctions-package-targeting-iran-russia-china-report
    crod
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    Post  crod on Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:26 am

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/trump-iran-nuclear-united-nations-european-allies-russia-china-sanctions/

    The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a long-awaited U.N. Security Council (UNSC) draft resolution extending an arms embargo on Iran that is due to expire in October, setting the stage for a great-power clash and likely veto in the U.N.’s principal security body, according to a copy of the draft obtained by Foreign Policy.

    The U.S. draft resolution would oblige nations, including the United States, to take active measures to prevent Iran from supplying, selling, or transferring arms to other countries, unless the Security Council committee overseeing U.N. sanctions approves such transfers. The measure would also require all U.N. member states to inspect cargo transiting through their territory to check for illicit arms imports or exports from Iran, and grant them authority to seize and destroy such weapons.

    It would also impose an asset freeze and travel ban on individuals responsible for violating the arms embargo, and authorize states to “seize, inspect, freeze (impound), confiscate, and dispose of any vessel in their ports.” In an effort to ratchet up pressure on Iran, the resolution would request that U.N. Secretary General António Guterres report any attacks by armed groups that threaten regional stability or interference in the freedom of navigation in the region. The resolution would also establish a special council committee to monitor compliance with the sanctions and appoint a panel of eight experts to investigate and compile information on potential violations of the embargo.

    If passed, the resolution would fall under Chapter VII of the U.N. charter, making it legally binding and enforceable. But the U.S. measure, according to several U.N. Security Council diplomats, stands little chance of being adopted by the 15-nation council. One council diplomat said that the U.S. initiative might not even receive the minimum threshold of nine votes it needs in the council that would force a veto from one of the permanent Security Council members. “This is not something that they are trying to get through the council,” said the diplomat.

    Some council diplomats and other nonproliferation experts see the U.S. move as a way to score political points at home, not to do anything about Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region.

    “The skeptic in me says that the objective of this exercise is to go through the arms embargo resolution, and when it fails, to use that as an excuse to get a snapback of the embargo, and if and when that fails too, to use as a political talking point in the election campaign,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department nonproliferation official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Since China and Russia are almost certain to ignore any U.N. arms embargo forced by U.S. maneuvers, the practical impact on Iran’s ability to cause mischief will be minimal, he said.

    “It’s not actually about stopping any arms from China and Russia, it’s about winning a political argument,” he said.

    The draft also condemns a string of alleged armed attacks by Iran against the United States, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, including the September 2019 drone and missile attack against two Saudi oil installations and a Dec. 27 strike allegedly by an Iranian-backed militia against an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk province, Iraq, which resulted in the death of a U.S. citizen and injured several U.S. and Iraqi personnel.

    The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) envisioned the expiration of a sweeping U.N. arms embargo on Iran after five years if Tehran complied with its obligation to scale back its nuclear activities and subject its program to expanded international monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran had largely complied with its obligations until Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in May 2018 and reintroduced a series of U.S. sanctions against the country.

    Since then, Tehran has violated key tenets of the JCPOA, including enriching uranium to purity levels higher than what is allowed in the deal and increasing the stockpiles of enriched uranium, according to assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    China and Russia, which wield veto power over Security Council decisions, have signaled their unwillingness to approve the resolution. Other signatories of the Iran deal—Britain, France, and Germany—have all supported retaining arms embargoes on Iran, but they also came out against the Trump administration’s threat to reimpose sanctions, highlighting the sharp disagreements between Washington and its closest European allies over Iran.

    EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, who slammed U.S. pretensions to still have a voice in the fate of the Iran deal, speaks to reporters in Brussels on June 9.
    Trump Rushes to Kill Off Iran Nuclear Deal Before Election
    Washington is seeking to extend a U.N. arms embargo that would eliminate any hope of revival.

    An International Atomic Energy Agency inspector visits the Natanz enrichment facility, south of Tehran, on Jan. 20, 2014.
    Despite U.S. Sanctions, Iran Expands Its Nuclear Stockpile
    Two years after Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has cut in half the time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade fuel for a nuclear bomb.

    US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, looks on during a briefing at the US Department of State in Washington, DC on January 17.
    Trump Administration Says Iran Could Exit Syria Amid Pandemic
    The State Department’s top official for Iran thinks Russia and Syria see more benefits to a potential Iranian drawdown.

    “We firmly believe that any unilateral attempt to trigger UN sanctions snapback would have serious adverse consequences in the UNSC,” the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany said in a statement on June 19. “We would not support such a decision which would be incompatible with our current efforts to preserve the JCPoA.”

    The foreign ministers also cautioned that lifting the U.N. conventional arms embargo “would have major implications for regional security and stability” but stressed that even without a U.N. arms embargo, the European Union has its own ban on sending conventional weapons and missile technology to Iran through 2023. Senior U.S. officials have said that Russia and China would be poised to sell conventional arms to Iran if the U.N. embargo expires.

    A State Department spokesperson told Foreign Policy that “failing to extend the arms embargo will risk even greater violence in the Middle East.”

    The spokesperson added that the U.S. is “hopeful” that the draft resolution will be supported by the Security Council, stating that China and Russia have upheld similar restrictions in the past. “Given that Iran’s activity continues to pose a threat to international peace and security, we do not see any reason why [the] Security Council consensus on this issue should have changed,” the spokesperson said.

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued on Twitter Tuesday that if the arms embargo expires, Iran would be able to purchase Russian and Chinese jets, allowing Tehran to potentially threaten Europe and Asia, though Pompeo used one-way flight ranges for those aircraft to exaggerate their potential threat.

    The Trump administration’s push to reimpose sanctions opened a unique legal debate over the United States’ current standing with the JCPOA. The Trump administration has argued that it is still legally a party to the deal the president disavowed, allowing it to trigger the snapback of sanctions. This argument has angered top diplomats from other countries that were signatories to the deal, who said the United States couldn’t have it both ways.

    Brian Hook, the Trump administration’s top Iran envoy, said in an interview with Foreign Policy last month that the president remains open to “sitting down” with Tehran for talks on a new deal. He said that the United States would still maintain its expanding sanctions regime on Iran in the meantime.

    “We’re in no hurry. We have a good policy in place. The regime needs to decide when it wants to come to the table,” he said.

    Foreign Policy reporters Keith Johnson and Jack Detsch contributed to this report.

    Update, June 23, 2020: This story was updated to include comments from a State Department spokesperson.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:18 am

    Some council diplomats and other nonproliferation experts see the U.S. move as a way to score political points at home, not to do anything about Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region.

    Hilarious... Irans destabilising activities in the region?

    Supporting the Syrians against terrorists openly supported by HATO countries Turkey, the US and also non HATO Israel, and helping Yemeni freedom fighters fight off mercenaries and cutthroats sent by Saudi Arabia... a country that supports terrorism through out the region and around the world... 119 was Saudi and Pakistani terrorists on the orders of Osama Bin Ladin... a Saudi national the US made rich supporting terrorists in Afghanistan during the 80s and beyond...

    “The skeptic in me says that the objective of this exercise is to go through the arms embargo resolution, and when it fails, to use that as an excuse to get a snapback of the embargo, and if and when that fails too, to use as a political talking point in the election campaign,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department nonproliferation official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Since China and Russia are almost certain to ignore any U.N. arms embargo forced by U.S. maneuvers, the practical impact on Iran’s ability to cause mischief will be minimal, he said.

    More propaganda... China and Russia follow UN rules even when it doesn't suit their interests... it is the US and Israel that does as it pleases... and the practical impact on Iran creating stability and order in Syria and Yemen has nothing to do with the US... we know they prefer chaos and instability... they repeatedly try to create both in countries that stand up to them... Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Russia, China...


    “It’s not actually about stopping any arms from China and Russia, it’s about winning a political argument,” he said.

    It is about Trump being a show pony for his masters in Israel... he wants to economically destroy Iran, but big bad China and Russia are stopping them...

    The draft also condemns a string of alleged armed attacks by Iran against the United States, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, including the September 2019 drone and missile attack against two Saudi oil installations and a Dec. 27 strike allegedly by an Iranian-backed militia against an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk province, Iraq, which resulted in the death of a U.S. citizen and injured several U.S. and Iraqi personnel.

    Any mention of staged murders of Iranian generals and economic genocide?

    The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) envisioned the expiration of a sweeping U.N. arms embargo on Iran after five years if Tehran complied with its obligation to scale back its nuclear activities and subject its program to expanded international monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran had largely complied with its obligations until Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement in May 2018 and reintroduced a series of U.S. sanctions against the country.

    Iran has fully complied. The European signatories have not and neither has the US.

    Since then, Tehran has violated key tenets of the JCPOA, including enriching uranium to purity levels higher than what is allowed in the deal and increasing the stockpiles of enriched uranium, according to assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    As a direct response to the existing european signatories not complying with their side of the bargain. They withdrew from promised investment projects in fear of US sanctions. In direct response Iran is reducing its commitments to the deal as is allowed as part of the deal in protest if the other side does not meet its commitments.


    China and Russia, which wield veto power over Security Council decisions, have signaled their unwillingness to approve the resolution.

    Of course they have because the resolution is ridiculous.

    Other signatories of the Iran deal—Britain, France, and Germany—have all supported retaining arms embargoes on Iran, but they also came out against the Trump administration’s threat to reimpose sanctions, highlighting the sharp disagreements between Washington and its closest European allies over Iran.

    So even Americas poodles don't approve... which just shows what I mean by ridiculous...

    Despite U.S. Sanctions, Iran Expands Its Nuclear Stockpile
    Two years after Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has cut in half the time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade fuel for a nuclear bomb.

    Rubbish. It should read... Because of US sanctions, Iran responds by expanding its civilian nuclear electricity power generation capacity...

    The State Department’s top official for Iran thinks Russia and Syria see more benefits to a potential Iranian drawdown.

    Translation... we are making bribe offers and hope they will sway Russia... but US promises are useless and cannot be trusted... the Russians know this...


    “We firmly believe that any unilateral attempt to trigger UN sanctions snapback would have serious adverse consequences in the UNSC,” the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany said in a statement on June 19. “We would not support such a decision which would be incompatible with our current efforts to preserve the JCPoA.”

    So even Americas bitches think it is a bad idea and don't support it... duh...

    Senior U.S. officials have said that Russia and China would be poised to sell conventional arms to Iran if the U.N. embargo expires.

    And why shouldn't they? The US has been actively bullying Russia by imposing economic and military sanctions on countries that buy their weapons like Turkey and India etc etc... why on earth would they listen to you.... dick.

    A State Department spokesperson told Foreign Policy that “failing to extend the arms embargo will risk even greater violence in the Middle East.”

    You mean even more than there currently is with your occupation forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and your illegal presence in Syria?

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued on Twitter Tuesday that if the arms embargo expires, Iran would be able to purchase Russian and Chinese jets, allowing Tehran to potentially threaten Europe and Asia, though Pompeo used one-way flight ranges for those aircraft to exaggerate their potential threat.

    Why not... Europe has been threatening the Middle East for a thousand years... and the rest of the world too... why should they not be allowed to do the same in return?

    The Trump administration’s push to reimpose sanctions opened a unique legal debate over the United States’ current standing with the JCPOA. The Trump administration has argued that it is still legally a party to the deal the president disavowed, allowing it to trigger the snapback of sanctions. This argument has angered top diplomats from other countries that were signatories to the deal, who said the United States couldn’t have it both ways.

    If they are still a party to the agreement then all the other parties should be putting economic embargoes on them to they return to complying with the agreement...


    Brian Hook, the Trump administration’s top Iran envoy, said in an interview with Foreign Policy last month that the president remains open to “sitting down” with Tehran for talks on a new deal. He said that the United States would still maintain its expanding sanctions regime on Iran in the meantime.

    Awesome idea... absolutely brilliant... make sure Pompeo is there too because we want the Iranian murder drones to kill him too... Twisted Evil

    “We’re in no hurry. We have a good policy in place. The regime needs to decide when it wants to come to the table,” he said.

    They will just send a big heavy parcel with fuck you written on it and a very large bomb inside...
    George1
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    Post  George1 on Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:23 pm

    Very Happy

    Iranian fighter jets added to Iranian missile threat

    US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decided to contract an advertising agent for Rosoboronexport JSC and on his Twitter account published an awesome info-graphic that shows the radii of combat use of Russian-made Su-30SM fighters and Chinese-made J-10, which, according to the US Department of State, Iran after the imminent lifting of the UN embargo in October.

    Arms Embargo: Potentially Expiring October 2020 81541310

    “With these deadly planes, Europe and Asia could be in the cross-hairs of Iran. The United States will never allow this,” said Pompeo (Rosoboronexport is directly quoted as the data source).

    On the bmpd side, we recall that the prohibitions on the supply to Iran (as well as the purchase from Iran) of arms and military equipment falling under the UN Register of Conventional Arms were established by UN Security Council Resolutions No. 1747 (2007) and No. 1929 (2010) .

    The UN Security Council Resolution No. 2231 adopted on July 20, which enshrines the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the international legal field, abolished all international sanctions measures against Iran introduced by the UN Security Council since 2006. However, this Resolution retained the prohibitions on the supply of weapons and military equipment to Iran that fall under the UN Register of Conventional Arms (practically repeating Resolution No. 1929) for a period of five years and missile weapons and missile technology for a period of eight years. The ban on the supply of arms and military equipment to Iran, which is subject to the UN Register of Conventional Arms, expires on October 18, 2020.

    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4069672.html


    Last edited by George1 on Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:00 am; edited 2 times in total
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:36 pm

    George1 wrote:

    US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decided to contract an advertising agent for Rosoboronexport JSC and on his Twitter account published an awesome info-graphic that shows the radii of combat use of Russian-made Su-30SM fighters and Chinese-made J-10, which, according to the US Department of State, Iran after the imminent lifting of the UN arms embargo in October.

    Arms Embargo: Potentially Expiring October 2020 81541311

    “With these deadly planes, Europe and Asia could be in the cross-hairs of Iran. The United States will never allow this,” said Pompeo (Rosoboronexport is directly quoted as the data source).

    He was them mocked on social media as the diagram showed the one way range, for the suicide aircraft Laughing
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:50 am

    He forgot the range of cruise missiles that the fighters can carry. And he mix combat range with ferry range. We can recognize here the work of the CIA...

    J-10 is an israeli plane. I doubt they will take it. Mig-35 is a better choice as they already operate the mig29 and have well trained pilots for it and coukd use them as soon as they get them in case US start a war over the sell of the planes. It is also easier to connect them to the AD made by Russia that they have.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:13 am

    Isos wrote:He forgot the range of cruise missiles that the fighters can carry. And he mix combat range with ferry range. We can recognize here the work of the CIA...

    J-10 is an israeli plane. I doubt they will take it. Mig-35 is a better choice as they already operate the mig29 and have well trained pilots for it and coukd use them as soon as they get them in case US start a war over the sell of the planes. It is also easier to connect them to the AD made by Russia that they have.

    A couple of dozen Mig-35, three to four of dozen SU-30s or 35s and a handful of S-400 batteries should help secure their airspace. They have enough modern short to mid aa systems haven’t they??
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:45 am

    crod wrote:
    Isos wrote:He forgot the range of cruise missiles that the fighters can carry. And he mix combat range with ferry range. We can recognize here the work of the CIA...

    J-10 is an israeli plane. I doubt they will take it. Mig-35 is a better choice as they already operate the mig29 and have well trained pilots for it and coukd use them as soon as they get them in case US start a war over the sell of the planes. It is also easier to connect them to the AD made by Russia that they have.

    A couple of dozen Mig-35, three to four of dozen SU-30s or 35s and a handful of S-400 batteries should help secure their airspace. They have enough modern short to mid aa systems haven’t they??
    i imagine so, but I don't know their quality. I know that they have s300 and their Iranian knockoffs...

    Probabily some bukm2 or m3 would be useful and also some pantsir. As for as the planes I agree, a mix of mig29M/ M2 to be upgraded later to mig35 standard (depending on how much they want to spend) and some su 30SM.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:49 pm

    How about 36 Tu-22M3s with four Kinzhals each in a maritime patrol model with inflight refuelling fully reinstalled... Twisted Evil
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:06 pm

    GarryB wrote:How about 36 Tu-22M3s with four Kinzhals each in a maritime patrol model with inflight refuelling fully reinstalled...  Twisted Evil

    Well, even Russia does not have so many tu22M3 to be upgraded to the latest standard that they could think about selling half of them to Iran... if they restarted production, maybe... also India and China could be interested....

    And in that case possibly also the Russian air force and rhe navy could use the opportunity and order more of them..
    Of course I do not believe that this is very likely....
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    Post  Isos on Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:19 pm

    For that matter they could sell the pak da and reduce its production costs.
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:10 am

    They are in the process of introducing the replacement for the Tu22M3... by 2035 they probably wont have any left... they would likely transfer them back to the navy as they got PAK DAs in numbers and then replace them in naval use too with more PAK DAs...

    They have plenty of Tu-22M3s... they are only going to upgrade about 60 to Tu-22M3M standard which would leave plenty for sale...

    To fire Kinzhal they don't need to be upgraded to Tu-22M3M standard... AFAIK the MiG-31s they used to carry the Kinzhal weren't even BM upgraded models... their other features were not needed for the job of climbing and flying fast and launching a missile and then flying back home.

    For the Backfires a Gefest & T bombing system would be useful for cheap conventional bombing of Kurds or other nasties and the capacity to carry four Kinzhals externally would be their primary role to defend Iran from the juice and their puppets.

    They will probably develop an MPA based on the PAK DA design though the requirements for stealth would be lowered to reduce purchase and operating costs I suspect.

    With talk of new radar types with surface mounted antenna arrays a flying wing would be an interesting choice for a 360 degree radar aircraft of significant size and flight endurance...

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