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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:32 pm

    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Well, she is banned from entering Russia so she won't be going to Russia besides to Ukraine to stand near Crimea and cry and shout.

    The Russians know who they are dealing with, and they know these people are scam artists.



    Will Russia change their strategy with Biden? He has soo many anti-Russian people in his cabinet.

    What is there to change? I recall that the Russians stated that they were OK with Biden simply because the Democrats are "predictable". So they are aware who they are dealing with and will counter where necessary.
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    Post  par far Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:05 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Well, she is banned from entering Russia so she won't be going to Russia besides to Ukraine to stand near Crimea and cry and shout.

    The Russians know who they are dealing with, and they know these people are scam artists.



    Will Russia change their strategy with Biden? He has soo many anti-Russian people in his cabinet.

    What is there to change?  I recall that the Russians stated that they were OK with Biden simply because the Democrats are "predictable".  So they are aware who they are dealing with and will counter where necessary.



    By change, I mean, will the Novorossiya armed forces be allowed to counter attack and take as many territory as they can and will the SAA be given proper air defenses and the ability to use them?

    Or will they be assessed as the situation requires.


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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:15 pm

    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    par far wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Well, she is banned from entering Russia so she won't be going to Russia besides to Ukraine to stand near Crimea and cry and shout.

    The Russians know who they are dealing with, and they know these people are scam artists.



    Will Russia change their strategy with Biden? He has soo many anti-Russian people in his cabinet.

    What is there to change?  I recall that the Russians stated that they were OK with Biden simply because the Democrats are "predictable".  So they are aware who they are dealing with and will counter where necessary.



    By change, I mean, will the Novorossiya armed forces be allowed to counter attack and take as many territory as they can and will the SAA be given proper air defenses and the ability to use them?

    Or will they be assessed as the situation requires.


       

    Russians are more calculated.  They tend to wait to see what happens and then act when necessary.  There are of course issues with that tactic. Like being overwhelmed or not acting at all based upon expecting Europe to behave.

    I think the last two to three years has shown Russia doesn't really give a crap.  The major hurdle in Russia wasn't the US and Europeans themselves but the Russian constitution.  The constitution should have been changed years ago.  They are still changing it now with adjustments and new amendments.

    So after everything is said and done, and parliament elections are over (this year), then Russia will start to be more effective in their countermeasures.

    It isn't Ukraine they have to be worried about. It's Belarus. The protests are still happening and Belarussian are too stupid to realize they are being used and same shit happen in Ukraine is happening there. Russia needs to prevent that happening in their own country

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:22 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Ukraine is now the problem of the EU and the US... the US has a history of dropping allies when they are no longer useful, and I am sure the EU is no better, though the influx of Ukrainians wanting to work in the EU and send money home will make it their problem... the Ukraine will become more of a festering sore that is going to cost more and more money to fix as politicians steal more and more money and resources and then retire to the med or some other sun baked area to enjoy their ill gotten gains at the expense of the ukrainian people who will have to pay the bills...
    With the emigration route from Eastern Europe to the UK now effectively closed forcing more to find jobs locally, on top of slow to no growth in the EU, it must be likely that Ukrainian workers will be much less welcome in the EU, further increasing problems in Ukraine.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:57 pm

    Will Russia change their strategy with Biden? He has soo many anti-Russian people in his cabinet

    Russia has already changed its policy... look at the INF treaty and New START treaty... years ago they would have begged and offered all sorts of concessions to get those signed, but now they are not talking about them...

    If the US wants to talk then they will talk but if the US does not want to talk then that is fine too.

    I think they will apply the same to US Russia relations... don't want to talk or cooperate... then they will do their own thing.

    What is there to change? I recall that the Russians stated that they were OK with Biden simply because the Democrats are "predictable". So they are aware who they are dealing with and will counter where necessary.

    The democrats goaded trump into being anti Russia so the last term has really been the equivalent of what it would have been with the democrats in office... this new regime is just going to be more of the same... so they can just continue to do what they have been doing really.


    I think the last two to three years has shown Russia doesn't really give a crap.

    These people in these breakaway regions don't think of themselves as Russians... they see themselves as Ukrainians... if they wanted to be Russians they could have done what the Crimea did, or at least try to... they haven't because unlike the people of the Crimea they are not Russian and don't really want to be Russian... they just want to be able to speak the language they have been speaking and trade with Russia...

    With the emigration route from Eastern Europe to the UK now effectively closed forcing more to find jobs locally, on top of slow to no growth in the EU, it must be likely that Ukrainian workers will be much less welcome in the EU, further increasing problems in Ukraine.

    Yeah, those bloody Ukrainians putting Polish plumbers out of work... Twisted Evil

    Surely there will always be a place in Europe for cheap slave labour... Smile

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:22 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    These people in these breakaway regions don't think of themselves as Russians... they see themselves as Ukrainians... if they wanted to be Russians they could have done what the Crimea did, or at least try to... they haven't because unlike the people of the Crimea they are not Russian and don't really want to be Russian... they just want to be able to speak the language they have been speaking and trade with Russia...
    For most people in the south west region of the ukraine (historical novorussia)  you are right.

    But not for the Donbass:
    now I believe that after being bombed and killed by the Ukrainians even the people that in the past were for the status quo want to reunite with Russia. I am sure that in the near future at least Donetsk and Lugansk will first be recognised as independent country by Russia and then allowed to reunite via a referendum.

    The only question is how much land they will bring with them;
    -1) just the current territory controlled by the rebel republics (not really feasible and not practical borders) ;

    2)the full size of the luhansk a d Donetsk oblasts (more 3) feasible and more self sufficent;

    3)Or also some additional lands from neighbouring oblasts (in case the ukrainians attack the donbass and they are defeated).

    From a defensive point of view the best would be the Dnepr river (that means that they will have to liberate also some parts of the Zaporozhe oblast (maybe the also some parts of Dnipropetrovsk oblast also) and of the Kherch oblast.
    This would also get them control of the full coast of azov sea that is not already in Russian hand and would also allow the reopening of the crimean water channel.

    Kharkov, Nikolae, Odessa and the rest of the Dnipropetrovsk a d Zaporozhe oblasts not absolutely needed to form a good defensive line can wait, after the locals decide themselves what to do with their future, and after they kick out the nazis among themselves.
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    Post  kvs Sat Jan 09, 2021 12:08 am

    https://top-news.com.ua/en/ivano-frankivsk/galka-if-ua/frankivka-kupyla-kuryatynu-yaka-svitytsya-shho-pro-cze-dumayut-u-soczmerezhah-fotofakt/

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 25 123298236_3550448415035052_5859099013222368327_n

    Imagine if someone bought a glow in the dark chicken in Russia. It would be top world news for days. I can't
    even find this story doing a straight set of Google searches.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:35 am

    There is no value in them taking more land to become a viable new region for the Russian Federation... if they take new land with people who don't want to be Russian then that creates a serious problem... Russia wont take land occupied by force with a hostile native population.

    Better to just join what wants to join and let other regions see what happens with Russian investment and trade to the regions that join the Russian federation and let them continue to suffer and stew in their own angry juices, or let them join too... but it has to be up to them... they have to want to join...

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    Post  kvs Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:30 pm

    GarryB wrote:There is no value in them taking more land to become a viable new region for the Russian Federation... if they take new land with people who don't want to be Russian then that creates a serious problem... Russia wont take land occupied by force with a hostile native population.

    Better to just join what wants to join and let other regions see what happens with Russian investment and trade to the regions that join the Russian federation and let them continue to suffer and stew in their own angry juices, or let them join too... but it has to be up to them... they have to want to join...


    For sure Russia does not need a herd of malcontents to manage. These losers need to see Russia prosper while they
    wallow in their svidomite shit. That is the only way.

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:28 pm

    GarryB wrote:Yeah, those bloody Ukrainians putting Polish plumbers out of work...   Twisted Evil

    Surely there will always be a place in Europe for cheap slave labour...  Smile
    Of course, the East EU Europeans will have to revert to their natural role, rather than get good money in the UK.

    The guy who runs one of our local car washes said that they came for a short period to buy something like a car or a long while to fund a house, then went home. Now they will move wage pressure from the UK into the now reduced EU, including working at home. The UK's GDP is something like the combined GDPs of the 16 smallest countries left behind, that will have an impact.

    Wait for the 'Ukrainians go home' slogans to appear in Poland. If they do then returning, young, used to having work, people will give Kiev a growing problem, as it will be on top of those coming out of school/college expecting to go but now barred from EU entry.

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    Post  GarryB Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:22 am

    I liked you post, not because I want them to suffer, but because I agree that is what is going to happen.

    They could have been Ukrainians and not Russians without cutting all trade and relations with Russia... it was this isolating themselves from Russia that has caused most of their suffering... it could only have worked if all the trade they had with Russia was suddenly replaced with similar trade with the west, but the west is not interested in their products and services and has a largely different culture.

    If they had not cut Russia off and made the transition gradual slowly breaking in to the western market and slowing down trade with Russia then they might have had a chance... but Russia still invests more into the Ukrainian economy than the west does... the irony is that to all intents and purposes they have given up a healthy lifestyle to become a crack addict... a terrible waste... but how can you tell them what they are doing is stupid and that Russia was never their enemy... well now they are not probably an enemy but not a friend either... more a competitive rival with newer equipment to supply to cold war Soviet equipment using customers where for the most part the Ukraine has lost most production capacity and are still pedalling cold war products.

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    Post  kvs Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:57 am

    Since half my family is Ukrainian I am not exactly enjoying the prospect of Ukraine turning into a toilet.

    But human psychology is a dog. If Russia does Ukraine any more favours, then it will just get more hate in return.
    The robbing of Russian history and the hate fixation on Russia is something that should be punished by God.

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    Post  slasher Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:30 pm

    Well written piece from the National Interest, though nothing surprising to what most forum members here have been saying years now.

    Joe Biden and the Challenge of Ukraine

    America is trapped. It cannot abandon its current policy toward Ukraine without appearing to offer Russia an undeserved victory, yet it also cannot continue its current policy because it enhances internal divisions that stoke popular frustration and anger toward America.

    For the first time since the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and the banning of his once-dominant Party of Regions, multiple surveys show that its successor, the pro-Russian “Opposition Platform-For Life,” has become the most popular political party in Ukraine, overtaking both president Volodymyr Zelensky’s “Servant of the People,” and former president Petro Poroshenko’s “European Solidarity.”

    It is also worth asking whether such a policy is morally justifiable, given that it has resulted in the gutting of Ukrainian industry, and the country’s descent into the ranks of Europe’s poorest nations. This decline has been accompanied by a devastating loss of population and an annual exodus, before the current pandemic, of nine million Ukrainians seeking seasonal work abroad. As Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnik points out, more than half of Ukraine’s 2021 budget is slated to pay off external creditors, while the percentage going to social services has fallen by half in the past six years.

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    Post  kvs Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:45 pm

    It's too early for any reconciliation. There is no reason to trust that this new "pro-Russian" party is any better that the POR.
    The desperation in Banderastan is growing. Good. It needs to fully ripen and for a revolution to topple the Banderite regime.
    This regime stage manages phony elections with phony parties all with the same anti-Russian agenda.

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    Post  Hole Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:14 pm

    Party of Regions was not dominant. Most of the time it was 50/50 with the fascist parties.
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    Post  kvs Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:21 pm

    Hole wrote:Party of Regions was not dominant. Most of the time it was 50/50 with the fascist parties.

    Reflecting the delusional state of Ukrainian society. They were living off of the decaying corpse of Soviet Ukraine
    and the massive wealth transfer (around $15 billion US per year) from Russia. So they assumed that economics is a
    cakewalk. If that were true every country on the planet would be full developed. Instead Ukr chauvinists are now
    sinking into a 4th world country toilet. All of their lies and hate against Russia and claims to ownership of Russian
    history are not helping them prosper. In fact, such rabid delusions are lubricating their rapid decline.

    I call this poetic justice.

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    Post  kvs Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:35 pm



    Ukraine is actually experiencing a potato shortage. Its storage capacity for potatoes is way below what it needs since it
    can't afford to maintain such facilities.

    The fascists who took over Ukraine starting under Kuchma promised that Ukraine would become an agrarian superpower.
    It has turned into an agrarian toilet which needs to import food it can produce itself.

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:01 pm

    Ukraine’s right wing political party National Corps secretary Olena Semenyaka has become a visiting fellow at the Vienna-based Institute for Human Sciences. The photo shows Olena with Nazi salute and Nazi flag.
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 25 Erb9xYlWMAE5-xj?format=jpg&name=smallThe Situation in the Ukraine. #28 - Page 25 Erb9xYhW8AEhpYd?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

    https://twitter.com/edolinsky/status/1348544168742817792

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    Post  franco Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:33 pm

    Some meetings to take place in Berlin re Minsk / Normandy accord between political advisers of the 4 nations leaders.
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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:03 pm

    Russia should stay away from any more of such meetings. Its phony partners use these meetings to spread hate propaganda
    by insinuating that Russia has "obligations" under the Minsk deal. It is not even one of the parties. This is the US-orchestrated
    propaganda narrative that Russian forces are "occupying the Donbass". The US routinely demands that "Russia withdraw its
    occupation forces in the Donbass".

    Russia is dealing with NATzO lunatics and has to act accordingly.

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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:07 pm

    kvs wrote:Russia should stay away from any more of such meetings.   Its phony partners use these meetings to spread hate propaganda
    by insinuating that Russia has "obligations" under the Minsk deal.   It is not even one of the parties.   This is the US-orchestrated
    propaganda narrative that Russian forces are "occupying the Donbass".   The US routinely demands that "Russia withdraw its
    occupation forces in the Donbass".

    Russia is dealing with NATzO lunatics and has to act accordingly.


    Yes. Just either not go or send some underling to just take notes of the meeting and thats it.
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    Post  franco Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:13 am

    In the immortal words of Gomer Pyle "Surprise, Surprise!!"

    On Tuesday, January 12, Berlin hosted a meeting of political advisers to the leaders of the Normandy format countries to resolve the situation in Ukraine.

    “ During consultations that lasted more than six hours, the Normandy Four leaders' advisors discussed the status of implementation of the agreements reached by the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia during the Paris summit in December 2019. In particular, the parties touched upon all the issues on the agenda - from security to humanitarian issues. The discussion was not easy, but it was constructive, all sides noted the importance of observing the ceasefire in Donbas, "

    - reports press service of the President of Ukraine.

    The Russian Federation was represented at the meeting by the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Dmitry Kozak, Ukraine - by the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak. In addition to political advisers to the heads of states participating in the Normandy format, the meeting was attended by the OSCE Special Representative to the Trilateral Contact Group for the Resolution of the Conflict in Donbass Heidi Grau.

    Let us remind you that the previous meeting of the advisers was held on September 11 last year also in Berlin. And in December, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, clarified that so far there is no talk of any timing for the new summit of the leaders of the Normandy format, the timing can only be talked about after all the points of the Paris communique have been fulfilled.

    However, so far, of all the points of this document, only two have been partially fulfilled - the exchange of prisoners, and this process has not been completed, as well as the establishment of a truce on the line of demarcation, although today we can speak of a truce only conditionally - only as a relative decrease in the number of shelling.

    Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Dmitry Kozak told reporters following the meeting that " , unfortunately, there is nothing to brag about ."

    According to him, the advisers had a " long, frank and useful conversation ", however, no final decisions were made on any issue that was included in the agenda.

    “ Unfortunately, there is nothing to brag about. An exchange of views took place on all fundamental issues in the implementation of the Minsk Agreements and the results of the Paris Summit in 2019. It was not possible to find final solutions. We agreed that new principled approaches to the formation of a road map in the Trilateral Contact Group on a comprehensive settlement of the conflict will be prepared , ”

    - quotes Dmitry Kozak TASS.

    He noted that “ each participant of the meeting outlined his position, his principled approaches to the prospects for the settlement of the conflict, ” however, no final decisions could be made - on not a single issue.

    The representative of the LPR in the political subgroup of the TCG, Rodion Miroshnik, believes that the advisers did not even discuss the draft "road map" to resolve the situation in Donbass, but the very idea of ​​preparing such a document and the possibility of agreement. The parties see differently the stages of the implementation of the Minsk agreements, while Russia is trying to discuss these stages, and Ukraine is looking for an opportunity to rewrite the Minsk agreements themselves, the LPR representative has no doubts.

    “ As you can see, the main stumbling block is “ principled approaches ”: the Russian Federation is trying to be negotiable, and is looking for options for a principled and sustainable settlement of the conflict, Ukraine is satisfied with the“ checkers ”that accompany the process, but do not lead to its complete settlement - exchanges, demining, new KPVV. In general, what can be won back within a day in the event of an aggravation, but before that it can be used as a support for Zelensky's staggering rating ", - sure Miroshnik.

    Dmitry Kozak also answered a question from journalists about when the next meeting will take place. According to him, the advisers agreed to meet again within two weeks to discuss all the same issues. Most likely, the meeting will take place in a videoconference format. The main requirement of the Russian side is that meetings should not be held for the sake of just talking.

    Dmitry Kozak does not think that Kiev will decide to return Donbass by military force following the example of Baku, because everyone understands today that such a step is tantamount to suicide.

    “ Result: we agreed to negotiate further. January 20 - meeting of the Contact Group, after which a new round of negotiations of advisers is possible. Zelensky even announces the date of January 22, which is very doubtful. New fundamental approaches still need to be formed, since the old ones are clearly far from ideal ", - said Rodion Miroshnik.

    However, in Kiev, most likely, no one is going to " form new approaches ", they are quite happy with the old ones.

    Because - and this is the most important thing - "the Western partners are not yet tired of the war ." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is sure of this.

    Well, since "the western partners are not tired yet, " Kiev will seek the end of the war on its own terms, Kuleba said in an interview with the Ukrainian newspaper "Observer".

    “ In the end, any war ends in peace. We are working to ensure that this world is on Ukrainian terms. This is the restoration of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine without prejudice to national interests and the European future of the state. But the longer the war lasts, the worse. When the war drags on, it becomes more difficult to stop and settle it every year , ”

    - noted head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

    Reintegration Minister Oleksiy Reznikov did not say nice words, but honestly said: Ukraine has already fulfilled all its obligations assumed in Paris in December 2019, and constantly demonstrates its readiness to " restart the peace process ." But here's the problem: the implementation of the existing Minsk agreements in the form in which they exist is simply impossible. There is only one way out - these agreements need to be updated. And this renewal of the agreements should become a condition for further progress in the negotiations.

    The idea, of course, is not new, but honestly and frankly - here is a condition for you, you fulfill - there will be progress in negotiations, no - and we will meet for years.

    In Donetsk, Reznikov was heard and answered.

    “ Kiev again proposes to resolve the issue of non-fulfillment of one document by replacing it with another. Nevertheless, we still hope that this year the Ukrainian authorities will realize a simple fact: it will not be possible to evade their obligations under the acts approved by the UN Security Council. Therefore, it is better not to waste time on empty calls for "modernization of agreements", but to start working substantively, guided by the documents of the Minsk Package already signed by both parties to the conflict and recognized by the entire world community , "

    - said in the comments of the DPR Foreign Ministry.

    While negotiations of political advisers of the "Normandy format" were underway in Berlin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine diligently "supported" the ceasefire. On January 12, the Ukrainian military opened fire three times at the settlement of Zhabunky (82-mm mortars), twice at the outskirts of Donetsk (grenade launchers), once at the settlement of Zhabunky. Leninskoe. This is the territory of the DPR.

    The territory of the LPR was shelled once from an RPG in the settlement. Gold-5.

    And so, of course, the "truce" is respected ...
    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:39 pm

    An Odessa resident from Crimea told why Ukrainians flee to the peninsula irrevocably
    01/15/2021 15:30

    Leaving for the Russian peninsula with the initial goal of finding a normal job, and feeling the breath of the Crimean Spring, many Ukrainians stay there forever.

    In an interview with RIA FAN, Alexei Dragunov, a former member of the "Odessa squad", told how he got to Crimea and why the Russian peninsula attracts ordinary Ukrainians so much.

    “The first thing that pushes Ukrainians to travel to Crimea is the perceived ease of crossing the border. It doesn't matter for what reason who is going to go. The main thing is the stereotype that when you travel to Crimea you don't have to explain to the Ukrainian border guards why you are going there. As we can see from recent events, this is far from the case. Inspection and interrogation with passion cannot be avoided, "Dragunov said." The second reason is socialization. Emigrating Ukrainians choose Crimea because there are many acquaintances here. From 2014 to 2018, it was really easy to get to Crimea, and many residents of Odessa, Kiev, Kharkov and so on moved here. Therefore, here you can always find iconic or friends of your friends in case of emergency, who will shelter for the first time and help you find a job. It's much more difficult on the mainland. "

    Real work and decent earnings are what distinguishes life in the Russian Crimea from modern Ukrainian realities.

    “Something is constantly developing on the peninsula; working hands are needed here. In summer, a lot of seasonal workers from Ukraine come here. Many even illegally, just to earn money, "- added the former resident of Odessa.

    According to Dragunov, any emigration is a “leap into the unknown,” but for ordinary Ukrainians, moving to Crimea is not too stressful, since they go to well-known places, to people they know well. But most importantly, they kindly envy the Crimeans who managed to leave the post-Maidan Ukraine far behind. And just as they want to breathe in the refreshing air of the Crimean spring!

    https://news-front.info/2021/01/15/odessit-iz-kryma-rasskazal-pochemu-zhiteli-ukrainy-begut-na-poluostrov-bezvozvratno/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:16 pm

    Russia must prevent Crimea from becoming a refugee camp. Many of these migrants may well be part of a Trojan horse effort.

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    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Sat Jan 16, 2021 10:41 pm

    kvs wrote:Russia must prevent Crimea from becoming a refugee camp.   Many of these migrants may well be part of a Trojan horse effort.


    Possibly, and one Russia's internal services should look into. Still, better Ukrainians than barbarian hordes from Asia and Africa.

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