Russian Economy General News: #10

miketheterrible wrote:I will contest this
Give me examples. Cause official numbers in west (Canada) may look Rosey but it isn't.  Best way is to compare debt and money saved between each other.

Germany

Canada

Russia

Austin wrote:Financial intelligence estimates at $ 20 trillion the shadow economy in Russia

Подробнее на РБК:
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/22/02/2019/5c6c16d99a79477be70257ee

The volume of the shadow economy in Russia last year exceeded 20 trillion rubles. and amounted to about 20% of the country's GDP, follows from a preliminary assessment of Rosfinmonitoring, which RBC has learned

Hole wrote:The difference between Russia and the west is that in the west no politician cares.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I will contest this
Give me examples. Cause official numbers in west (Canada) may look Rosey but it isn't.  Best way is to compare debt and money saved between each other.

Im gld you did contest, otherwise forum is boring:). I dont claim that anywhere is rosy, especially for youngsters.  Yet still in Russia ratio for GDP/interest rate looks rather worse then in the west. In my IMHO That's why Uncle Vova is proposing all mother capitals on other supports for youngsters.  

Russian family pays 3x more total interest on mortgage  loan  than Canadian and 5x more than a German  one.

Of course I can be wrong too. What other criteria would you suggest?


Rationale behind my opinion please find below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

.................................GDP PPP per capita....................CB.interest.rate
Germany.....................$.50,206............................................0.%
Canada.......................$.48,141............................................1,8.%
Russia........................$.27,890.............................................7,75%

lets assume  mortgage loan rate CB + 3 % , proprty is $(PPP)100,000
https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/loan-calculator.aspx

Germany

3%

Monthly Payments........$ 474.21
Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
Total Interest Paid....$42,263.39

Canada

5%
Monthly Payments.......$ 584.59
Total Principal Paid......$100,000
Total Interest Paid...$75,377.01

Russia

11%

Monthly Payments........$ 980.11
Total Principal Paid.......$100,000
Total Interest Paid.......$194,033.92

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:Financial intelligence estimates at $ 20 trillion the shadow economy in Russia

Подробнее на РБК:
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/22/02/2019/5c6c16d99a79477be70257ee

The volume of the shadow economy in Russia last year exceeded 20 trillion rubles. and amounted to about 20% of the country's GDP, follows from a preliminary assessment of Rosfinmonitoring, which RBC has learned

Im glad I was right.  The good news is that this also means Russian economy can jump 20% till 2024. Mind also regular growth then
 GDP could really grow ~6,000Tn by 2024

Hole wrote:The difference between Russia and the west is that in the west no politician cares.

That's the difference between democratic government and authorization regime .


Democracy doesn't care - if you die immigrants replace you. Russia (at least establishment supporting Putin)  -  prefers to support own nation.

miketheterrible wrote: Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

miketheterrible wrote:  Ah, I see you are referring to interest here.  OK, then things are indeed tad different.  Right now interest here for mortgages are fluctuating.  But where are your monthly payments coming from?   Mortgage monthly payments are average of about $1,300 per month, not 584.59 per month.  I pay $1,500 per month for our house.  That is just the house.  Not to mention utilities which are significantly more expensive than in Russia as example.  City I live in is also not the most expensive in Canada either.  Even Winnipeg average house is $350,000.  Average 1 bedroom apartment is $180,000CAD.  Mortgages start at 25 years average from 3 - 5 years before have to renegotiate interests.

As for PPP our currency dropped by over 25% so those numbers are rather old.  PPP takes into consideration of domestic economy and consumption thus prices can drop or increase.  Ours increased.  Why?  For some reason they assumed that materials should be within USD and not CAD even if they are local.  Hence why homes that were at least $300,000 are now over $500,000.  Even my home jumped initially from $350,000 to over $450,000.  That of course has more to do with the speculators on behest of the realstate agents.

Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

Nibiru wrote:
I thought its already made clear that Rostec has the capacity to manufacture local equipments for 5g tech in Russia? If not then Russia has to play dirty and steal both Huawei and Cisco tech. They should have done that years ago to keep up with competitors in this industry.

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

Kimppis wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. (Just wondering...)

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

Austin wrote:Russia’s 5G Conundrum

https://sputniknews.com/radio_brave_new_world/201902081072246062-russias-5g-conundrum/


So it seems there could be no Russian provider who make 5G equipment on commercial scale so will have to depend on Huawei or Western equipment and there is a great risk of spyware getting in through them

So US agent from liberal HSE is concerned with Huawei but not CISCO / Checkpoint  spywres? how sweet
Jeff Schubert, a Visiting Professor at the Higher School of Economics National Research University in Moscow,


seriously radio parts will be passing info massively to  China? or let radio parts to be infiltrated by China?

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Kimppis wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Shadow economy will be very hard to fight. Russia been doing it for years with only some marginal success.  How do you bring it into overall economy.  In UK they would simply count it as their GDP like drug and prostitution sales, but Russia is much better than to do that.

20% is actually a huge decline from earlier. It was close close to 50% at one point.

How do you know Russia doesn't count things like drugs and prostitution, though? Or maybe they include some other sectors that are of equally dubious... "quality"? And would it make a huge difference anyway? (No.) Man, prostitution sure is a trillion dollar industry in the UK... Fucking cheaters. (Just wondering...)

How little you know: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwju7a6rqNLgAhVmCDQIHafoCTIQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2014%2Fjun%2F10%2Faccounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules&psig=AOvVaw1yEc0YmYTC-08IQRF4QJQ7&ust=1551027098829571

So Russia's GDP is 20% bigger than the official one.   But as I have posted about numerous times, I do not consider the official Russian GDP to be
legitimate.   There has been a systematic over-estimation of inflation in Russia's economy for the last 20 years.   This results from the BS assumption
that all prices in the economy transition to market levels in under one year.    Jeffrey Sachs and he Harvard monetarist boys instilled this myth into
the brains of Russian reformer saps back in the early 1990s (which gave us shock therapy and collapse of Russia's GDP by 50%).  

Perhaps food and consumer junk prices in Russia have adjusted on a short time scale.   But it is clear that other prices, for example industrial
production related to the military and even other non-consumer sector prices, have shown decadal time scale transitions.    So prices in Russia
have been subject to structural adjustment growth from non-market and non-existent levels back in 1990.   This is not inflation regardless of
what monetarist twats claim.   Inflation is defined as price growth in an equilibrated economic system.   Specifically capitalist economies where
prices have meaning and are not decoupled from production and consumption as in command economies.  

If the above is too obscure, think of transitioning from barter to cash payments.  Before no money existed and after there was money.   If this
is inflation, then it is infinite.   In reality, new money was issued (printed) to monetize the transaction.   The only way to evaluate actual
impact on the GDP would be to see if physical goods and services turnover remained stagnant, shrank or increased.    For such structural adjustment
to be categorized as inflation would require the GDP to shrink to zero.   Clearly this is nonsense.

Since the CBR and the Ministry of Finance never once mention the above, and given the rather obvious detachment of official GDP growth from
facts on the ground (how well people are doing, e.g. number jobs and pay), I am right in concluding that they are using the wrong CPI and PPI
figures and hence systematically overestimate the GDP deflator.    My estimate is that the Russian PPP GDP is about $6 trillion.    

Before laughing at such a small number, recall that the US GDP is basically offshore due to global dominance of US transnationals as well as
the singular place of the US dollar as a reserve currency (petrodollar).   GDP includes offshore economic activity unlike GNP, which
is why use of GNP was dropped.    It is not valid to divide the US GDP by the US population to get a GDP per capita to compare to the rest of
the world.   American citizens in all likelihood do not see 50% of their "national" GDP.  

Austin wrote:Russia defence budget in terms of PPP

https://romeosquared.eu/2018/06/04/russias-military-budget-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-gdp-of-spain/

kvs wrote:Actually, the real GDP of the USSR was not several times less than comparable western countries.   They always
compare apples to oranges, these clowns.   The nominal GDP of the US is not its actual economic productivity
(i.e. GNP) per capita multiplied by its population number.    US GNP is much smaller than its extra-territorial bloated
GDP.   By contrast, the USSR was subsidizing the eastern European clowns in the Warsaw Pact and all the 3rd world
regimes that supposedly wanted socialism.    This is the total opposite of the role of the USA in the world economy,
which is like a giant parasite that gains profit from the 3rd world and even its minions and does not subsidize
them (regardless of all the yapping about how the US shoulders the burden of NATO defense costs).  

The standard of living in the USSR was not bad at all.   Cheap food and housing and a reasonable access to consumer
goods.   If you average the standard of living of Americans during the 1980s, it does not become several times higher
than Soviet citizens.   America has a huge poor stratum and a tiny super-rich top layer.   And its GDP per capita does
is a meaningless number since the GNP per capita (and thus real jobs and wages) is much smaller.    The USSR citizens
could have had a much higher standard of living if the USSR did not spend so much of its resources supporting losers
abroad.   One has to correct for such factors if one cares about factual comparisons and not propaganda masturbation.