Russian Economy General News: #8

Before these Law Maker introduce a bill to just steal the $100 billion of Russian T Bills , it would be wise to just liquidate them.

The Out Going NSA ranted about Russia , Nikki Hayley says US can slap Russia when ever it wants and Mike Pompey and John Bolton are any body but hate mongers and Rossophobic , THe writing is on the wall , if Putin or RUssian Central Bank cannot see the direction which wind is blowing then they have themself to blame.

I see Russia-US relations getting worse and worser.

Stop any START Extension Talk and Deny US software/hardware companies from bidding in Russian Government tender .......... US should pay a price and know Russia can come to them as well.

America already sanctioned most banks in Russia. If they sanction CBR, it puts an end to any cooperation between them.

At that point, it will free Russia's hands. The US has no idea what they are obviously doing. Without the sanctions, they had far more control over Russian institutions. Now? They will lose their only hand regarding it. Making Russian government in control of it's banks again. Something that was needing to be done long ago.

The only thing left is to ban Russia from Swift. At that point, gloves are off. Putin is probably sitting there laughing knowing the US is making big mistakes.

miketheterrible wrote:America already sanctioned most banks in Russia. If they sanction CBR, it puts an end to any cooperation between them.

At that point, it will free Russia's hands. The US has no idea what they are obviously doing. Without the sanctions, they had far more control over Russian institutions. Now? They will lose their only hand regarding it. Making Russian government in control of it's banks again. Something that was needing to be done long ago.

The only thing left is to ban Russia from Swift. At that point, gloves are off.  Putin is probably sitting there laughing knowing the US is making big mistakes.

Any attempt at a SWIFT cutoff will be met with a seamless transition to Russia's own system. NATO really messed these blackmail efforts
up. When they started blocking VISA and Mastercard transactions several years ago, Russia responded by developing the MIR credit card
system and a SWIFT alternative. Just like with SWIFT any country in the world would be able to deal with Russian banks through this system.
If NATO tries to terrorize them from using it, then that is too bad for them. Anyway, Russia does not depend on exports and foreign loans.
This is something the idiots running NATO do not understand.

Some people here, and that I mean Austin, believes that US laws mean anything outside of the US, and that the American Federal Reserve and the United States government runs Russia's economy. He thinks that truly, their banks, banks of China's, India's and everywhere else is the one that makes all the decisions.

Reason why they mattered, was because of US grip, and their influence. BUT, take a look. See Iran? Iran was under complete American and British control. After the Shah was overthrown, and America as well as UK government barred Iran and all its banks and central bank, it forced Iran's new government to make adjustments.

In the end, Russia will have no problem adjusting. As you pointed out KVS, Russia adjusted rather quickly. MIR card happened very fast. They already have a working SWIFT alternative that went through various tests. If US decides to kick Russia out of SWIFT, decides to steal their $100B, it just gets others thinking. Russia's alternative will be looked at by various countries, as you said KVS. Iran would be first of them. Many nations would be interested whom are tired of US bullshit.

Russia will adjust its CBR and its policies to accommodate to the fact that they have zero access to US. At that point, things will end up being the same for Russia. They will just be $100B in reserves shorter, and the investments they do....do would end up probably bringing more money back from those investments. May increase domestic investments even further, or what not. Don't know. But plenty of options.

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/105801/

So apparently farmers from SME's to medium sized businesses are able to obtain loans that are 5% interest.

miketheterrible wrote:https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/105801/

So apparently farmers from SME's to medium sized businesses are able to obtain loans that are 5% interest.

1) Confirms what I have been saying about Nabiullina's 5th column rate policy

2) Indicates that thankfully the CBR does not dictate all policy in Russia and there are sane forces that know
the real deal.

I hope that the CBR is purged sooner rather than later. Fighting 2.5% CPI with 7.5% interest rates is pure nonsense.
A 2% CPI in Canada or the USA comes with a nearly 0% prime rate.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:America already sanctioned most banks in Russia. If they sanction CBR, it puts an end to any cooperation between them.

At that point, it will free Russia's hands. The US has no idea what they are obviously doing. Without the sanctions, they had far more control over Russian institutions. Now? They will lose their only hand regarding it. Making Russian government in control of it's banks again. Something that was needing to be done long ago.

The only thing left is to ban Russia from Swift. At that point, gloves are off.  Putin is probably sitting there laughing knowing the US is making big mistakes.

Any attempt at a SWIFT cutoff will be met with a seamless transition to Russia's own system. NATO really messed these blackmail efforts
up. When they started blocking VISA and Mastercard transactions several years ago, Russia responded by developing the MIR credit card
system and a SWIFT alternative. Just like with SWIFT any country in the world would be able to deal with Russian banks through this system.
If NATO tries to terrorize them from using it, then that is too bad for them. Anyway, Russia does not depend on exports and foreign loans.
This is something the idiots running NATO do not understand.

I am not worried about SWIFT disconnection that would be the nuclear option for NATO to use or about Visa/Master card.

My point is

1 ) CBR need to divest $100 billion from US T bills and instead keep just 20-25 billion in T bills , If the US still steals 25 USD Billion then Russia can refuse to pay off the debt as you say ,Why let US siphon off the entire USD 100 billion ?

Instead use it for the so called Putins plan which need 8 trillion roubles ~ 135 billion USD , more than half can come from CBR invested T bills

They can just keep $20-25 billion for regular transaction for business needs etc and if US still steals that then Russian can just refuse to pay of its debt to US banks.

2 ) Why does Russia needs a full capital account convertible currency does China or India keep it , just keep partial convertibility limited to certain amount for general citizen ....A citizen has barely any need for forex unless for travel or study abroad or medical needs abroad beyond that they dont need USD or Euro , making it full convertible just incentivises speculations and is waste of CBR forex.

^^ Both these things needs to be done urgently specially point 1.

As I see it with the war monger John Bolton , pyscho Mike Pompeo and metally challenged Niki Hayley combinatation will do every thing possible to impose a cost on russia as they say , it would be prudent to see which way the wind is blowing and reduce the impact they it cannot be completely eliminated.

Why does CBR does not invest in Chinese Government Bond MArket or Indian one , it gives higher interest and is fully liquid , The trade turnover will make sure that you can use it in mutual trade

if i was Putin i would strike back with the following:
Russia should stop supplying the USA with Russian RD-180 engines immediately,
Immediately end all involvement/co-operation with the USA on the ISIS space station,
Dump all it's US debt bonds and currency on the open markets and switch the Ruble to being backed with Russian gold

i'll bet that will have massive affect on the USA, The USA is not interested in being friends with Russia they want to destroy and break up Russia, America is only going to impose more and more sanctions on Russia, Russia has to act or it will be seen to be weak, i believe America or the UK will try to sabotage the world cup during the tournament so i expect a full scale Ukrainian assault on Donbass or Crimea.

Russia needs to act now because the USA will be facing trade wars on several fronts China, Russia, the EU ... the EU will not allow their high standards in food production to be lowered to allow sub standard US food products and GMO crops the sanctions placed on the EU on steel and aluminium will be activated on May the 1st if no deal is agreed, if the EU accepts sub standard US food products it could be open to international law suits from other countries.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176406/

Decent article describing the 3 fronts with which the U.S is waging geopolitical war on Russia, China and Iran. Gets the generalities right, from the U.S perspective.

EUCOM targets Russia
CENTCOM targets both Russia/Iran (lesser extent China)
PACOM targets China (Russia to a lesser extent).

On the economic front we're seeing how the war is getting carried out - Financial/Trade war against Russia, China and all American adversaries - sanctions, tariffs etc.

Politics serve the public relations buffet to help carry these out. Demonization of Russia in Europe, brainwashing of Ukraine youth by unsavory individuals and on the Pacific theater playing the old fault lines China has with Japan, while keeping Australia under control.

There is no new cold war, it's an ice war of containment. Syria's occupation is part of that so is Afghanistan and the Korean peninsula debacle (which in my pov the Chinese are not handling too well). But neither is Russia handling Syria perfectly, and Ukraine is a disaster.

In South America (since the Obama administration) they have hit hard after a wave of left leaning governments almost cleaned house (in a way it set a lot of things in motion out of their control - which is nice future wise). Nonetheless Brazil got neutralized and is in limbo now (a huge, huge success for them - we'll see how this plays out). All that is left from the old wave is Venezuela (and Bolivia - but it won't matter much). Cuba is now set for a power transition of which its success is KEY for the future of Latin America.

Hole wrote:

kvs wrote:
I hope that the CBR is purged sooner rather than later.   Fighting 2.5% CPI with 7.5% interest rates is pure nonsense.
A 2% CPI in Canada or the USA comes with a nearly 0% prime rate.  

A few weeks ago on Keiser Report Mitch Feierstein said that a normal interest rate in Amiland would be 6%. Which is impossible, because they would go belly up immediately.

7,5% in Russia is maybe 0,5 to 1,0% to high, but not more. If you make Money to cheap, you end up with a Situation like in Amiland, EU and even China (debt of between 5 and 15 Trill. bucks - depends on whome you ask). Look at the medium term possibilities. Another 6 years for Putin, so they can lower the rate between 0,5 and 0,75% every year, which is much better than lowering it 2 or 3% now.

You omitted a critical detail. The real CPI in the USA is 6% and not 2%. Shadow stats makes a convincing case. Hedonics
adjustments are pure fraud. The prime rate should be either the CPI (in Russia 2.5%) or CPI + 2% if inflation growth is a risk.
This is not the same as faking the CPI and running a ZIRP policy like NATO countries. Nabiullina's 5% markup has no justification
and anyone who pays a mortgage knows what an extra 5% does. It's not peanuts and can be a showstopper.

LMAO

http://tass.com/economy/998515

MOSCOW, April 9. /TASS/. The dollar rose by 1.14 rubles to 59.31 rubles on the Moscow Exchange for the first time since December 25, 2017.

The euro rose by 1.36 rubles to 72.74 rubles.

http://tass.com/economy/998485

MOSCOW, April 9. /TASS/. The shares of Rusal slumped by 30% at the opening of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange to 19.8 rubles ($0.3) per share, after the company reported a possible technical default on certain types of debt obligations due to introduction of the US sanctions.

According to the trading data, the maximum decline in the company's shares was 46.9%, to 15.04 ruble per security.

Global depository receipts of Deripaska's EN + Group plummeted by 20% at the opening of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange after the introduction of US sanctions.

The maximum decline of the company's GDRs was 22.9% to 450 rubles ($7.7) per security, trading data shows.

(And yes, I know, none of this really matters. But I'm sure certain people are already celebrating.)

I can't feel bad for that oligarch asshole. He moved a lot of his money to UK and US. The fact he was borrowing from the west should have given him a clue.

In end, Rusal assets can be taken or traded off to other people who are not dumb shitheads.

What I am curious about, is what options Russian government going to push to help these companies out? They are working with them, but how to help them? How did Iran circumvent all these sanctions for decades? The Iranian private industry does very well. So I guess they could learn a thing or two from them.

Forbes: Russian billionaires lost more than $ 12 billion against the background of a decline in the value of shares

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5108309

ACRA: new US sanctions significantly affected the stability of the financial system of the Russian Federation

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5108428

Capitalization of the Russian stock market on Monday fell by almost 7%

Moscow. 9 April. INTERFAX.RU - The capitalization of the Russian stock market, calculated on the basis of weighted average prices in the sector of the Main Market of the Moscow Stock Exchange, amounted to 36.193 trillion rubles ($ 625.819 billion at the official rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation) on Monday.

Thus, compared with the closure of the previous trading day, capitalization fell by 2716.458 billion rubles, or 6.98%

Market value leaders are OAO Sberbank of Russia (4.867 trillion rubles), OAO Rosneft (3.185 trillion rubles), OAO Gazprom (3.181 trillion rubles).

As of December 29, 2017, the capitalization was 35.771 trillion rubles, that is, since the beginning of the year the indicator has grown by 1.18%.

CBR should buy more $100 Billion US T Bills to keep them happy

miketheterrible wrote:What I am curious about, is what options Russian government going to push to help these companies out? They are working with them, but how to help them? How did Iran circumvent all these sanctions for decades? The Iranian private industry does very well. So I guess they could learn a thing or two from them.

Help them? They could start by arresting their owners for exporting Russian capital outside of Russia (it was certainly for tax evasion purposes so it should be easy to prosecute them on that formality), and then nationalise their property.

They should now, since stocks are cheaper. The average person can gain a lot with small change investment.

I agree in not helping these crooks. Instead, state should purchase a large share from said company to protect the plants themselves.

The major issue for all these companies, is lack of domestic banks wanting to loan and operate for foreign contracts. Which is stupid cause they are flushed in cash. Yeah, sell US tbond and use that money to fund loans to foreign states to buy goods from Russia. Much higher return.

Austin wrote:Forbes: Russian billionaires lost more than $ 12 billion against the background of a decline in the value of shares

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5108309

All that money lost is money frozen in terms of these olgiarches assets in US.

Guess these idiots should have seen the writing on the wall.

miketheterrible wrote:

Austin wrote:Forbes: Russian billionaires lost more than $ 12 billion against the background of a decline in the value of shares

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5108309

All that money lost is money frozen in terms of these olgiarches assets in US.

Guess these idiots should have seen the writing on the wall.

No, most of the money is speculative capital derived from share prices. For some reason people think that stock prices
are God's gift to humanity. So speculators determine how much a company is worth and what its capital assets are.
This is utter nonsense since no company can fully convert its nominal share value into actual cash. As soon as it starts
to sell its stocks the price drops unless we are dealing with a token amount of stocks. But a systematic program to
sell shares is guaranteed to lower their price even if strung out over a multi-year time frame.

It is good that Russian companies are based on real assets and not the stock market casino fiction. Of course, this
gives us absurd situations were Gazprom is valued much less than Exxon. In terms of energy assets Gazprom is
much bigger than Exxon. Most Exxon's "value" comes from its overpriced shares.