Russian Economy General News: #8

miketheterrible wrote:You will never get away from marketing, unless they somehow block all that marketing in the country of outside products.  Apple traditionally isn't a very good phone.  i had one.  Piece of shit really.  The closed architecture of the software is also crap too seeing as it is BSD based and BSD is essentially an open source OS.  Add to that, their itunes garbage (I always looked for ways to breaking it and using alternatives.

But it looks simple (Pretty) with a good display and a good camera, with some gimmicks that scares the shit out of me (Unlocking the phone by face recognition? That means camera is "looking" at all times even if it is off.  Better hide it when you are plowing your wife or boyfriend).

People, no matter if it is Russia, China, etc, are predominantly stupid when it comes to both technology and fashion.  People are odd in the sense that they think that having these devices make them look professional, rich, popular, "in", etc.  Like BMW's and Mercedes.  Parts are made in China, parts not made in China are made cheaply to increase profit and increase competition, and are proprietary based in order to sucker the customer into their line of service contracts.  Know how many BMW's owned by Punjabi's I see broken down on the side of the road? Know how many of them complained to me about how their BMW or Audi front headlights cost $100 because they are some sort of super special bullshit bulbs? Know how many BMW's stopped working after a bit because your computer hasn't been reset by a proper BMW licensed mechanic after an oil change? Lots.  Yet lots of them still buy it and or recommend their whorish looking sister into buying one (Daddy's money).  It really isn't anything other than status symbol bullshit.  But, I have to hand it to Apple and the rest - they took something basic, shit and simply the same as nearly every other device that is the same, and marketed well enough to convince everyone it is the next best thing since sliced bread.  Same goes for BMW and Audi.  Hell, If I was going to spend that kind of money on a luxury car, I would get new Hyundai Genesis, or a Lexus or a Lincoln.  But oh well, people fall for it, and well, nothing we can do about it.

Only thing that Russia and China can do, is try to market a product of their own the same way.

“The most pragmatic position is the position of the United States of America, which wants to bury this project with all sorts of legal decisions, instruments, sanctions, having an unambiguous impact on the European Union," Medvedev said at a meeting with Finnish counterpart Juha Sipila.

Such pragmatism can be explained by the interests of the US Congress to force-feed American gas to Europe, ousting Russia, Medvedev said.

He said that Finland has taken a “very constructive position regarding Nord Stream-2,” by regarding it as a commercial project.

The Nord Stream-2 pipeline will double the delivery capacity of the existing Nord Stream pipeline from the current 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The pipeline has faced fierce opposition from the Baltic States and Poland.

There are only three members of the Board of Governors who matter: Janet Yellen, Stan Fischer and Lael Brainard. There is only one Regional Reserve Bank President who matters: Bill Dudley of New York. Yellen, Fischer, Brainard and Dudley are the “Big Four.”

They are the only ones worth listening to. They call the shots. The don’t like dots. Everything else is noise.

Here’s the model the Big Four actually use:

1. Raise rates 0.25% every March, June, September and December until rates reach 3.0% in late 2019.

2. Take a “pause” on rate hikes if one of three pause factors apply: disorderly asset price declines, jobs growth below 75,000 per month, or persistent disinflation.

3. Put balance sheet normalization on auto-pilot and let it run “on background.” Don’t use it as a policy tool.

Simple.

What does this model tell us about a rate hike in December?

Disinflation has been strong and persistent. The Fed’s main metric for this (core PCE deflator year-over-year) has dropped from 1.9% in January to 1.4% in July. The August reading comes out on September 29. This time series is moving strongly in the wrong direction from the Fed’s perspective. This is what caused the September “pause” (which we predicted for readers last March).

After seven months of decline, one month of increase, if it comes, will not be enough to get the Fed to end the pause. It would take at least two months of increases to change the Fed’s mind.

That’s unlikely given the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Those effects may be temporary, but they come at exactly the time when the Fed was looking for a turnaround in core inflation. They won’t get it. The pause goes on.

How do I know this?

For one thing, the Fed explains this all the time. It’s just that the media won’t listen; they’re too busy chasing dots.

But this was also explained to me in detail by the ultimate Fed insider. I call him, “The Man Without a Face,” and I identify him by name in chapter six of my New York Times bestseller, The Road to Ruin.

It’s true that Stan Fischer is leaving the board soon, but the White House has been in no hurry to fill vacancies. The Big Four will still be The Big Three (Yellen, Dudley and Brainard) when the December meeting rolls around and the analysis will be the same.

Eventually the markets will figure this out. Right now, markets are giving a 70% chance of a rate hike in December based on CME Fed Funds futures. That rate will drop to below 20% by Dec. 13 when the FOMC meets again with a press conference. (There’s another meeting on Nov. 1, but no one expects any policy changes then).

Now, with respect to quantitative tightening (QT), the same way they tapered QE, they’re going to “taper” QT. This time however, they’re going to taper upward. Meaning they’re going to go from $10 billion a month not being rolled over to $20 billion, $30 billion, etc.

Eventually, the amount of securities they don’t roll over will go up until the balance sheet controlled by the Fed comes down to the targeted figure. The projection is that it could take five years to achieve. The problem is we might not make it that far before the entire system collapses.

We’re in a new reality. But the Fed doesn’t realize it.

Here’s what the Fed wants you to believe…

The Fed wants you to think that QT will not have any impact. Fed leadership speaks in code and has a word for this which you’ll hear called “background.” The Fed wants this to run on background. Think of running on background like someone using a computer to access email while downloading something on background.

This is complete nonsense. They’ve spent eight years saying that quantitative easing was stimulative. Now they want the public to believe that a change to quantitative tightening is not going to slow the economy.

They continue to push that conditions are sustainable when printing money, but when they make money disappear, it will not have any impact. This approach falls down on its face — and it will have a big impact.

Markets continue to not be fully discounted because they don’t have enough information. Contradictions coming from the Fed’s happy talk wants us to believe that QT is not a contractionary policy, but it is.

My estimate is that every $500 billion of quantitative tightening could be equivalent to one .25 basis point rate hike. The Fed is about to embark on a policy to let the balance sheet run down.

The plan is to reduce the balance sheet $30 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017, then increase the quarterly tempo by an additional $30 billion per quarter until hitting a level of $150 billion per quarter by October 1, 2018.

Under that estimate, the balance sheet reduction would be about $600 billion by the end of 2018, and another $600 billion by the end of 2019.

That would be the equivalent of half a .25 basis point rate hike in each of the next two years in addition to any actual rate hikes.

While they might attempt to say that this method is just going to “run on background,” don’t believe it.

The decision by the Fed to not purchase new bonds will be just as detrimental to the growth of the economy as raising interest rates.

The Fed’s QT policy that aims to tighten monetary conditions, reduce the money supply and increase interest rates will cause the economy to hit a wall, if it hasn’t already.

The economy is slowing. Even without any action, retail sales, real incomes, auto sales and even labor force participation are all declining. Every important economic indicator shows that the U.S. economy is slowing right now. When you add in QT, we may very well be in a recession very soon.

Because they’re getting ready for a potential recession where they’ll have to cut rates yet again. Then it’s back to QE. You could call that QE4 or QE1 part 2. The Fed has essentially trapped itself into a state of perpetual manipulation.

The problem continues to be that the stock market is overpriced for this combination of higher rates and slower growth.

The one thing to know about bubbles is they last longer than you think and they pop when you least expect it. Under such conditions, it’s usually when the last guy throws in the towel that the bubble pops. We’re not there yet.

Is this thing ready to pop? Absolutely, and QT could be just the thing to do it.

I would say the market is fundamentally set up for a fall. When you throw in the fact that the Fed continues to have no idea what they’re doing, and has taken a dangerous course anyway, I expect a very severe stock market correction coming sooner than later.

As market perceptions catch up with reality, the dollar will sink, the euro and gold will rally, and interest rates will resume their long downward slide.

Do you have your gold yet?

Regards,

Jim Rickards

miketheterrible wrote:Sounds like businesses want to find a legal way not to pay taxes. Most Russian businesses do not deal with foreign entities in their wealth creation, since most make for Russian market.  So this leads me to believe they want to legally create method to hide money outside.

Which Putin and co are against completely, so it will shut it down.

Cryptocurrency is banned till the government finds a way to be able to properly trade in it, monitor it and properly tax it, as well as creating conditions to trade with. Currently majority of cryptocurrency is used to hide money from government and to buy illegal materials like drugs and weapons, oh and fund terrorist activities.

When Russian businesses are trying to convince others to allow offshoring, that alone should raise red flags everywhere. Putin has been fighting it by sanding all of them declare full assets and then charging them (people with offshore) extra in order to get them back home.  They are using pretext of "sanctions" to be able to steal from Russia, since only 10% of Russian businesses actually export.

andalusia wrote:This is an interesting article by Paul Craig Roberts.  I don't know why Russia and China don't try to make an effort to drop the dollar as the world reserve currency.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/09/13/economic-lesson-china-russia/

Austin wrote:Russia Public Debt In BRICS and World Context



Source

But he is sure that, given the achievements that we have in macroeconomic policy, in restoring economic growth, raising the ratings is simply inevitable. "The agencies are looking for a time when this can be done for their reputation is the least painful," Oreshkin said.

Speaking at a conference at the corporate university of Sberbank, he also said that the Russian economy should find 5 trillion rubles of additional investments a year to grow at a rate higher than the world average.

"Investment growth should become stronger, the number of projects that should be implemented in the Russian economy should be greater," Oreshkin added.

miketheterrible wrote:From the budget.

They can pump 5T since they plan to do so for railway. Then connection to Sakhalin, etc. Although, it is big money so they will have to get it from various sources besides just budget.