At the beginning of the next battle for the budget Finance Ministry is looking for ways to limit requests lobbyists. Following the request of President cut spending in the 2016-2017 biennium. by 5% in real terms, it will be difficult because of resistance from other ministries, the Ministry of Finance acknowledge. Each mikrodeystvie runs into opposition, said an employee of the ministry. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance chose a different way to automatically lower the expenditure ceiling.
The Ministry of Finance will offer a new interpretation of the budget rules, said Minister Anton Siluanov: clean it from the effect of devaluation. Correct the rule and not have to change the law, it is only necessary to interpret it correctly, Siluanov said after the meeting with the President on the budget.
According to the rule the costs should be calculated on the basis of the base price of oil - an average over several years - plus up to 1% of GDP. The purpose of the rules was to limit expenditure growth in the fat years and create a safety cushion the fall of commodity prices. But the right to play against the devaluation amid falling oil prices. According to calculations of the Ministry of Finance (is in "Vedomosti"), the basic price in 2016 is significantly higher than the forecast of Economic Development - $ 87 versus $ 60 (see. Table). A budget expenditures, calculated according to the current rule - nearly 1.5 trillion rubles. Even higher is incorporated in the existing law.
The idea of the Ministry of Finance - the base price of the dollar does not multiply in the Ministry of Economic Development forecasted exchange rate and at the rate that would have been at a base price, explained yesterday Siluanov. For example, in 2016, the base price of the budgetary rule - $ 87 per barrel, while the price of a dollar would be worth about 40 rubles., Not 56.8 rubles., As provided by macro forecasts, estimates Siluanov. The issue of applying the rule under discussion, he said.
All options can be considered, but the government declined to an adjustment rule explains a senior government official. A new interpretation to avoid the "hump expenses" - strong growth in 2016, and then collapse, said a Finance Ministry official. Their ceiling in 2015 will fall to 15.1 trillion rubles., While current expenditure rule would have been significantly higher.
There are two ways to cut costs, says a federal official: adjustment of regulations and a reduction of 5%. The second option calls Siluanov tough. A new interpretation of the rules makes it possible to reduce costs in 2016 (even more than in the form of reducing the costs of 5%), but 2017 is not so constrains them, while reducing the base price starts to weaken and the ruble pegged to it. In 2018, with the base price of a barrel of oil at $ 58 dollar will cost 62 rubles., While the Ministry of Economic Development forecast - 53.2 rubles. Therefore, the marginal costs are higher than under the current interpretation of the rules. The goal of the Ministry of Finance - is not automatically possible to cut costs and avoid volatility - surge and then slump, said his spokesman. Adjustment rules according Siluanova allow the Finance Ministry to achieve the goal: the federal budget deficit in 2016 should not be higher than 2.4% of GDP in 2018 is possible deficit budget.
Among the options to reduce the cost of the least harmful to the economy Siluanov named revision of the indexation of social obligations, which under the current legislation should be indexed either on actual or on forecast inflation. Transfer to Pension Fund due to the indexation of pensions and payments Inflation will need to increase by 1.1 trillion rubles. in 2016, to 1.2 trillion - in 2017 and 1.7 trillion rubles. - In 2018. Social spending will squeeze other costs, says Siluanov. Among the ways to avoid it - linking the indexation of pensions to increased revenues FIU (it already is in the legislation, but can not be lower than inflation), told "Vedomosti" Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin. But he did not say exactly how the Finance Ministry proposes to solve the problem legally.
The current rule has shown to be ineffective, the director of the Centre for the Development of the Higher School of Economics Natalya Akindinova: use rate does not correspond to the macroeconomic situation. Treatment of the Ministry of Finance is adequate to the economic situation, I'm sure Akindinova, but expect the base rate is necessary not only for the price of oil, have to prepare another macroeconomic forecast.