kvs Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:24 am
sepheronx wrote:But nothing is stated to be clear in his speech. Because if Russia is having a trade surplus and higher consolidated budget, how or where is this $140B loss? Is it hypothetical loss? He isnt clear in his statement. I read the RT article and he goes on about capital flight. That makes very little sense
Oil accounts for 20% and or less in Russias gdp. So it isnt a loss of grand magnitude but I am curious where this guy is getring the figures from.
Loss relative to predicted income from pre-drop prices.
Budgets were made with predicted prices in mind, so there will be costs that need to be adjusted for.
Ah, that makes it very clear now. So due to their prediction of oil at $90-$100bbl, they now determin they 'lost' $140B. So if they had a budget that revolved around $60bbl, then they would have a gain or further surplus in budget.
Thank you, you made it much easier to understand. That said, I think future budget (like next year) needs to revolve around $60bbl speculation so they dont run into this mess.
There is talk though due to consolidation budget being up due to taxation and trade surplus, that there wont be a deficit. If that is the case, then I wonder what all this talk is about? Unless he is clearly warning the government on reliance of their budget on oil prices. Which makes sense.
The Russian government used to have a very conservative oil price in its budget plan (exactly the $60 you bring up), but they have slacked off
and started raising it. At the end of the day it matters only in as much as the missed oil target produces large deficits. I do not see any
evidence of the current oil price producing a budget constriction worth worrying about. Government revenues are in rubles and the ruble
devaluation has offset the oil price decline.
The above is an example for all the Russia hating chimps in the west. They jump up and down when the oil price goes down and scream
Russia is going to go down in flames. They do the same when the ruble exchange rate to the dollar increases. They are brainless idiots
since the two effects cancel each other out.