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Methodology was changed and all results from previous years were recalculated to fit the new model. Such a huge jump may be a result of precisely that.
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Russian Economy General News: #2
As Sa'iqa- Posts : 398
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sepheronx
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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They actually added St.petersburg into the calc, which apparently doing business there is significantly easier than moscow due to local laws. Also popular destination.
Mike E- Posts : 2619
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Hmmm, thanks for the info...As Sa'iqa wrote:Methodology was changed and all results from previous years were recalculated to fit the new model. Such a huge jump may be a result of precisely that.
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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http://www.finmarket.ru/main/article/3851515
If true, this is interesting.
October, 30th. FINMARKET.RU - A draft law on financial injections into the economy in the form of interest-free loans for the ruble bank report "Izvestia".
Thus, the Central Bank in 2015, Russian banks issue interest-free loans of $ 25 trillion, and in 2016 - 30-35 trillion rubles. All this is due to issue the national currency - a bailout bill, amending the law "On the Central Bank," United Russia has developed, a member of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes Yevgeny Fyodorov. As told to the deputy edition bill will be sent to the government next week. Thus, the proposed Russian variant "of quantitative easing" - the author was guided by the idea of the US Federal Reserve experience: from the end of 2008 in the US economy, the Fed was poured about $ 4 trillion by buying securities from banks. Quantitative easing program since 2010 in Japan and are scheduled for this fall in the European Union.
Yevgeny Fyodorov offers to make financial injections into the economy in the form of interest-free loans to the ruble, obtained from the Central Bank funds at 0% banks, according to his plan, should invest primarily in industry. The MP said that the funds will be provided to the regulator to credit institutions for a fixed period of time - for example for 3 years. After receiving their margins with investment of 3-4%, the banks will repay the interest-free loans to the Central Bank continues to Fedorov.
In implementing the proposed scheme, he predicted, in 2015 economic growth (raising GDP) is 20%, and Russian salaries will increase by 50%. Expected in such a case, according to the canons, inflation is projected companion, will, however, in the region of 0%. The MP explained that the figure for inflation will be achieved by refocusing on Russian domestic investment - coupled with the tremendous influx of foreign investment. In addition, he noted that the money supply in Russia is not sufficient for the growth of GDP and is only half of the gross economic indicators.
Chairman of the Duma Committee on Financial Markets Natalia Burykina, quoted by "Izvestia", believes that in order to pour into the banking system 25 trillion rubles, do not need a special bill - the Central Bank have this authority. Another question - in need of such injections, according Burykina, excess money in the economy to spur inflation, which now, according to official data, is 8.5%, and the unofficial - even higher. As noted Burykina, fight inflation can only increase the key rate, not the reset. Head of the Committee on finrynku also indicates that the realization of the idea of Fedorov complicated structure of the Russian economy - money from the regulator through the banks do not reach small and medium businesses on acceptable terms - that is, banks receive funds in the Central Bank of 8%, and loans of SMEs is already under 30 %.
The chief economist of the Russian branch of Deutsche Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik recalls that in the crisis of 2008-2009 issued by Russian banks denominated loans were converted into the currency of the banks, which increased capital outflows and a decline in foreign exchange reserves. The total gross net outflow of capital from Russia in five post-crisis years (2009-2013) amounted to about $ 280 billion. According Lisovolik, the risk that the interest-free loans to the Central Bank will be converted into US banks, rather than focus on the development of the industry, will be high. The expert also noted that the key rate at zero to achieve zero inflation impossible - to combat rising prices can only rise in the index.
Analyst Alex Viazovsky believes that quantitative easing program have a chance only under certain conditions. So, you need to enter the country soft currency control - get exporters to sell in the domestic market foreign exchange earnings, impose large cross-border flows of speculative Tobin tax (0.1% of the financial transactions in shares and bonds and 0.01% - derivatives), yet harder to control currency position of the banking system.
Ministry of Economic Development "News" reported that the assessment of the needs of the banking system's liquidity - the competence of the Central Bank. In Central Bank declined to comment on the initiative of United Russia.
If true, this is interesting.
kvs- Posts : 15167
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This perceptions based index is still a joke since it ranks Russia in the same group as most 3rd world countries. I wonder
what these clowns will do to Ukraine's ranking. It will probably shoot up to 30. These indices are a propaganda inanity.
Another one of them is the one from "Transparency International" (as if they are transparent themselves) which has the
absurd "corruption perceptions index" that ranks Russia below India and Mexico.
I have nothing against India or Mexico, but we are talking about alleged "objective" metrics. India was the country
were $14 billion (that is right: BILLION) worth of food aid was stolen by corrupt local administrators and sold for profit.
There are public works projects that are clearly stalled by corruption since it acts like a sieve and diverts resources away
from productive work. There are no such examples in super corrupt Russia.
Russia has plenty of corruption and doing business is not easy and relaxing. But these indices are designed to distort
reality and blow these problems way out of proportion. If Russia was 62nd it would not have so many production plants
being opened by foreign companies and joint ventures. See sdelanounas.ru for a continuous stream of such news, which
you will never hear from the western media.
what these clowns will do to Ukraine's ranking. It will probably shoot up to 30. These indices are a propaganda inanity.
Another one of them is the one from "Transparency International" (as if they are transparent themselves) which has the
absurd "corruption perceptions index" that ranks Russia below India and Mexico.
I have nothing against India or Mexico, but we are talking about alleged "objective" metrics. India was the country
were $14 billion (that is right: BILLION) worth of food aid was stolen by corrupt local administrators and sold for profit.
There are public works projects that are clearly stalled by corruption since it acts like a sieve and diverts resources away
from productive work. There are no such examples in super corrupt Russia.
Russia has plenty of corruption and doing business is not easy and relaxing. But these indices are designed to distort
reality and blow these problems way out of proportion. If Russia was 62nd it would not have so many production plants
being opened by foreign companies and joint ventures. See sdelanounas.ru for a continuous stream of such news, which
you will never hear from the western media.
Austin- Posts : 7617
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As i said CBR will raise interest rate and they did today , I am not sure if this is the only thing they need to do from Rouble falling.
Russia raises interest rate sharply as rouble slides, inflation climbs
Russia raises interest rate sharply as rouble slides, inflation climbs
* Central bank raises main lending rate to 9.5 pct from 8 pct
* Large rise reflects concern over falling rouble, inflation
* Rouble down nearly 2 pct after rate move
* Analysts say more steps may be needed
* Bank leaves intervention policy unchanged (Adds details and comment)
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Klepach: "Europe can no longer be trusted"
http://ru-facts.com/news/view/40582.html
http://ru-facts.com/news/view/40582.html
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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Austin wrote:As i said CBR will raise interest rate and they did today , I am not sure if this is the only thing they need to do from Rouble falling.
Russia raises interest rate shiarply as rouble slides, inflation climbs
* Central bank raises main lending rate to 9.5 pct from 8 pct
* Large rise reflects concern over falling rouble, inflation
* Rouble down nearly 2 pct after rate move
* Analysts say more steps may be needed
* Bank leaves intervention policy unchanged (Adds details and comment)
Goes to show that central bank has no idea what they are doing. Ruble was increasing in value again as USD and EUR were droping. After increasing interests, value drops? Hahaha.
That said, if what I posted above is true, we may see a Russian QE where they have 0% interest in the future. Dont know if this will create more problems or not. But so far, at least Russia has not seen interest rates like 18% like we had here in Canada. But those interest rate numbers are not good.
kvs- Posts : 15167
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Austin wrote:Klepach: "Europe can no longer be trusted"
http://ru-facts.com/news/view/40582.html
The moron who pasted the text at ru-facts.com should be shot.
Klepach is monetarist true believer:
We need deregulation, promotion of small and medium-sized enterprises, easing of fiscal and monetary policies & mdash; government still resisted it & mdash ;, and also stimulate the economy
The monetarist mantra. But as usual the Devil is in the details. The EU has many regulations as does Canada and even the USA.
But the mantra implies no regulation.
kvs- Posts : 15167
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sepheronx wrote:
Goes to show that central bank has no idea what they are doing. Ruble was increasing in value again as USD and EUR were droping. After increasing interests, value drops? Hahaha.
That said, if what I posted above is true, we may see a Russian QE where they have 0% interest in the future. Dont know if this will create more problems or not. But so far, at least Russia has not seen interest rates like 18% like we had here in Canada. But those interest rate numbers are not good.
There are way too many monetarists in charge in Russia. Putin the "tyrant" should remove them. The CBR is following a political dogma
and not rational policies. Russia does not need to jack up interest rates to prop up the ruble. It Needs to sell its oil and gas in rubles and
force demand. Around $350 billion dollars worth of ruble demand each year would stabilize it toute de suite.
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Despite Surprise Rate-Hike, Russian Ruble Crashes Most In 6 Years
Mike E- Posts : 2619
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Could be a good thing as long as oil keeps dropping and it recovers... Almost like a beneficial non-purposeful QE, that doesn't go to the large banks...Austin wrote:Despite Surprise Rate-Hike, Russian Ruble Crashes Most In 6 Years
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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http://www.finmarket.ru/currency/USD/
Ruble is 41.9627 to USD.
Bloomberg states:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
Ruble is 43.03 to USD.
Regardless, CB just screwed up. I think this should be used as media attention against CBR and time to intervene.
Ruble is 41.9627 to USD.
Bloomberg states:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
Ruble is 43.03 to USD.
Regardless, CB just screwed up. I think this should be used as media attention against CBR and time to intervene.
Austin- Posts : 7617
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I suspect US/EU in connivance with hedgers and speculators is trying to bring down rouble hope CBR will burn its reserves and Russia would be economically very weak to pursue its own self interest.
CBR should stop defending rouble , it would fall but it cant fall for ever because eventually the demand support chain would balance it out.
Even if Rouble falls to 45-50 per USD it should be fine , I remember in 2010 Indian Currency fell from 44 Rs to 1 USD to today 61 Rs where it is today.
Its time to act prudently as its Economic Warfare being played out , Just 2 days back Susan Rice US NSA said that US was using it Economic Might against Russia
CBR should stop defending rouble , it would fall but it cant fall for ever because eventually the demand support chain would balance it out.
Even if Rouble falls to 45-50 per USD it should be fine , I remember in 2010 Indian Currency fell from 44 Rs to 1 USD to today 61 Rs where it is today.
Its time to act prudently as its Economic Warfare being played out , Just 2 days back Susan Rice US NSA said that US was using it Economic Might against Russia
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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Austin wrote:I suspect US/EU in connivance with hedgers and speculators is trying to bring down rouble hope CBR will burn its reserves and Russia would be economically very weak to pursue its own self interest.
CBR should stop defending rouble , it would fall but it cant fall for ever because eventually the demand support chain would balance it out.
Even if Rouble falls to 45-50 per USD it should be fine , I remember in 2010 Indian Currency fell from 44 Rs to 1 USD to today 61 Rs where it is today.
Its time to act prudently as its Economic Warfare being played out , Just 2 days back Susan Rice US NSA said that US was using it Economic Might against Russia
Agreed.
Although, CB is their own policy maker it seems and is looking to burn away doing what exactly US and EU want. Good thing is, all internal policies are dealt with Rubles (internal development/trade) and that agreements still exist between Russia and various countries to trade in their respective currencies.
While Ruble has dropped quite a bit against USD, it barely dropped against Yuan, and that is where the importance lies. Since Russia imports a significant amount from China in terms of consumer goods, things should not effect Russia inflation too much (7 Yuan to 1 Ruble). Hopefully Russia and India agree on currency trade.
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/757780
I am pretty certain with Gas prices going down (brent being around $85), prices of flights may get cheaper who knows. In this case, transportation between regions in Russia may just get cheaper and help improve the economy that way. Guess it could also help logistics as well.
This is Russia's prime opportunity to do what it needs to fix its economic model. To really get rid of the need of USD and work on its own terms.
Kremlin Economy Boss: Please Don't Cancel Sanctions - They're Helping Russia
I am pretty certain with Gas prices going down (brent being around $85), prices of flights may get cheaper who knows. In this case, transportation between regions in Russia may just get cheaper and help improve the economy that way. Guess it could also help logistics as well.
This is Russia's prime opportunity to do what it needs to fix its economic model. To really get rid of the need of USD and work on its own terms.
Kremlin Economy Boss: Please Don't Cancel Sanctions - They're Helping Russia
This is an account of comments made by Igor Shuvalov, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the economy, last week in Sochi.
Western leaders might care to reflect on them and on what Shuvalov reports Putin telling Biden (see the two paragraphs at the end).
This is an extract from an interview to Russia Direct, by the American political scientist, Nikolai Petro.
"Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov put forward the view that, if they last long enough, Western sanctions will be an impetus for modernization.
The very worst thing that the West could do now is to lift sanctions quickly. This would have the short-term effect of telling government officials and the heads of state enterprises that they need do nothing to change.
Russia would be caught in a more stringent liquidity crunch, as it waited for the end of sanctions to take effect, but still could not obtain credit cheaply or quickly. Shuvalov therefore concluded that, “the sooner sanctions are lifted, the worse for Russian modernization.”
He went on to list several reasons why conditions are now optimal for Russian modernization: Falling gas prices are forcing Russian producers to be more productive; sanctions are forcing Russian companies to search for new sources of international funding at a time when the emerging economies have more cash liquidity than their Western counterparts; low debt and high cash reserves means that Russian investment programs can continue without foreign borrowing – at most, he said, if further sanctions are imposed, Russia will delay full implementation of current programs for two years.
This year once again, he reminded us, the Russian government expects to have no budget deficit. Finally, Putin’s astonishingly high popularity means that he has a window of opportunity to push through unpopular economic reforms.
Shuvalov concluded by telling us of a discussion that Putin allegedly had with U.S. vice president Joe Biden several years ago. Apparently, Biden had just told Putin that Russia was simply too weak to compete for global leadership.
Putin replied that, while Russia might not be strong enough to compete for global leadership, Biden might reflect on the fact that Russia will still be strong enough to determine who that leader will be."
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Dollar exchange rate in November rise by 1-1.5 ruble
Exchange rates on the stock exchange in the last two days of October vytvoryayut unimaginable. On Thursday, the ruble has made an unexpected jump, the dollar has lost half of the ruble, on Friday, the dollar lost 50 cents after no less unexpected decision of the Central Bank raised its key rate by 1.5 percent.
But then something "broken." There was a picture of almost the same. And on Friday night on a short-term surge of forces in the national currency only resembled the official rate of the Central Bank. At the stock exchange to the dollar again gave 43 rubles, while the euro - about 54 rubles.
When the ruble finally come out of the peak that it can support and how much it will cost a dollar by year-end, "RG" said Professor of the Department of the stock market and investments NRU "HSE" Alexander Abramov.
Exchange rates on the stock exchange in the last two days of October vytvoryayut unimaginable. On Thursday, the ruble has made an unexpected jump, the dollar has lost half of the ruble, on Friday, the dollar lost 50 cents after no less unexpected decision of the Central Bank raised its key rate by 1.5 percent.
But then something "broken." There was a picture of almost the same. And on Friday night on a short-term surge of forces in the national currency only resembled the official rate of the Central Bank. At the stock exchange to the dollar again gave 43 rubles, while the euro - about 54 rubles.
When the ruble finally come out of the peak that it can support and how much it will cost a dollar by year-end, "RG" said Professor of the Department of the stock market and investments NRU "HSE" Alexander Abramov.
What is happening with the ruble, it seems no longer to float freely, and on the flight. When will it end?
Alexander Abramov: By and large, this will happen only after the abolition or weakening of sanctions . Then the captain go back to Rosie, the companies would have the opportunity again to resort to debt financing in foreign markets. As a result, the ruble gained would be very hard. However, it seems the EU postponed the question of revising the sanctions until spring.
Therefore, in the coming months a lot, in my opinion, will depend on the amount of refinancing provided by the Central Bank of the banking system. It is for the purchase of currency and repayment of corporate foreign debt. Who is the Central Bank refinancing objectively motivates the process of falling ruble. I do not see until the other real arrangements that the Central Bank can use in this situation, but to limit the refinancing.
Where, then, banks and companies look for resources to repay the debt?
Alexander Abramov: Under normal circumstances, they would have started to sell unnecessary assets and optimize costs. But since all continue to hope for the state, banks and companies have no incentive to look for internal reserves. And you need to get them uzhatsya to repay foreign debts by saving their money.
Many wonder where is the "bottom", reaching which, the ruble still stop.
Alexander Abramov: On this account there is a naive, but interesting indicator: the ratio of the money supply in the country to international reserves. Roughly, how many of the state currency to cover currency hype. For a long time the ruble approximately matched this calculation indices. And now he is 66 rubles per dollar. Here are a few rough calculation, which can theoretically go ruble.
The real fall of the ruble will, of course, smaller. Given the schedule of payments on corporate foreign debt, while maintaining sanctions dollar to the end of 2015, will be located at the level of 50-55 rubles.
And what is your outlook on the exchange rates for the next month or two?
Alexander Abramov: The ruble will continue to fall. Until the end of the year the dollar will add 2-2.5 rubles, and during November - 1 to 1.5 rubles.
That is, the rate of ruble weakening considerably below?
Alexander Abramov: Yes, because the peak of debt payments is in December, and I think that the main reserves for these payments and banks have already formed. In the currency market this excessive demand, as in October, should not be.
As the decision of the Central Bank to raise its key interest rate will affect the ruble?
Alexander Abramov: At any time it is somewhat hit by the temperature in the ruble, simply because banks for refinancing through the Central Bank will be more expensive. Someone more expensive money just stop.
But there is another problem: the loans become more expensive for businesses, it is even more retards economic growth. In terms of sanctions do more expensive money for the business, not based on currency speculation - is a difficult decision.
On the other hand, leave the rate unchanged - then give a very strong signal to the market that the Central Bank considers normal current rate of ruble depreciation. And it will spur many participants buy more dollars or euros in case something might not work. Pure psychology. That is, again, at some time, this will increase the drop rate.
It turns out that whatever decision the Board of Directors adopted the Central Bank, it is risky. Now it is not clear what to fight in the first place: inflation and devaluation of the ruble, or with low investment activity and slowing economic growth.
Currency-deposit auctions Finance and dollar repo auctions of the Central Bank can help?
Alexander Abramov: Can, but, first of all, banks need dollars not on such a short time and not at such rates as they were offered at the first auction of repurchase in dollars. That is why he failed. Secondly, we must understand that if this practice will take wide scope, it will actually mean the introduction of a number of parallel exchange rates. And this is a very dangerous thing. The next step could be the introduction of the official exchange rate of the dollar, as it once we had. With all its consequences.
And if you go up the price of oil? This can not be excluded after the OPEC meeting in late November.
Alexander Abramov: Then, of course, a little ruble win. But hardly OPEC will reduce the release of oil. Current price, it seems to me, artificially holding Saudi Arabia, thus attempting to keep the Russian energy market in China. There is also the factor of low energy demand.
Hannibal Barca- Posts : 1443
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Hannibal Barca wrote:Austin wrote:magnumcromagnon wrote:sepheronx wrote:Austin wrote:I think the present worry is how to take care of falling rouble , the basket is close to CB intervention which means more USD from forex will be spent in supporting Rouble or CB will raise interest rates to support rouble or both in some measures
Only purging CB will help. They are fucking the Ruble as you may have noticed. Who cares if it is a certain amount to USD. They barely trade to US and are getting rid of their USD. Only thing left are the idiots at CB who are causing damage by worrying about Ruble value to USD. Well, them and yourself.
Nationalizing the central bank and restoring capital and exchange controls is what they need to do!
If they can restore capital control that would be good thing to do , Not a good time to make Rouble full convertable by Jan 2015 which is what CB is targetting.
If they can stabalise the rouble then thats half the economy problem they would solve.
I just hope Rouble does not go in a free down ride as India experience with its Rupee Fall a year back.
Ruble will fall further. Probably close to 50 rubles per dollar. Russia is a country with a huge trade surplus,a raw material provider and a need for a domestic industrial economy.
Makes sense.
Here from September.
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/11/03/01-46-32pm/who_framed_roger_rouble
Good read. Talks abput CBR failure and what needs to be done.
Good read. Talks abput CBR failure and what needs to be done.
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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http://ria.ru/economy/20141105/1031721880.html#ixzz3I8wE7K6H
Media: PGO check the CB because of the policy in respect of the ruble
Well, this shall be interesting.
Media: PGO check the CB because of the policy in respect of the ruble
Well, this shall be interesting.
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They need already to federalize the CB, fuck the CB. It can not be that a national Central Bank is printing a countries money without being bound to the countries budgetary and state interest which the CB constitution says that RF does not stand for CB and CB does not stand for RF interest, meaning they can do deals with other countries to harm the RF which they most probably have done since it is not operated by the RF, grab it now and sue those bastards.
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Russia's Central Bank to Limit Forex Interventions to $350 Million a Day
- Reuters
- Nov. 05 2014 10:24
- Last edited 10:24
MOSCOW — Russia's Central Bank said Wednesday that it had changed its intervention policy for the ruble exchange rate and was now limiting the size of its interventions to $350 million a day.
In a statement, the bank said the move would significantly increase the flexibility of the exchange rate, meaning the rate will now largely be determined be market factors.
The bank also said it would continue to move the ruble's corridor against a dollar-euro basket by five kopeks once the bank has expended $350 million in interventions. The ruble has lost more than 20 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar this year.
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And how much would that effect the ruble exchange rate?
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Werewolf wrote:And how much would that effect the ruble exchange rate?
Not much I think , what they are doing is giving a soft landing for rouble fall by small intervention daily
Essentially making it free floating.
sepheronx- Posts : 8558
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Well, regardless what they do now, sounds like CBR is now under investigation. If there are any discrepencies, I imagine there are people going to be charged. I agree with you werewolf, CB needs to be federalized. I never understood why a countries CB, which controls the currency of the nation, and interest rates, is allowed to be private? Also, they own the largest forex bank of Russia, Sberbank. (Well, over 50% of it).
Hooefully, they find discrepencies that will force them to intervene. Or, make CB a pointless organization by creating another entity to smother out CB. Recognize the currency of another CB.
Hooefully, they find discrepencies that will force them to intervene. Or, make CB a pointless organization by creating another entity to smother out CB. Recognize the currency of another CB.
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