The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

Reposting here for future reference


Good summary of the strategic situation

Why Putin is in no hurry with Ukraine


Konstantin Kevorkyan, ex-deputy of Kharkov city council, journalist

After Vladimir Vladimirovich announced his intention to run for the presidency of the Russian Federation, many questions have disappeared by themselves. In addition to our eternal desire to anticipate the following moves of players on the political stage. Meanwhile, professional politics is the most complicated science, which must take into account the economics of each problem, its related interests (often mutually exclusive), the consequences of the decisions made and the great number of other accompanying factors. But in general, leading to the main thing - the achievement of the goal.

Vladimir Putin is therefore considered one of the most authoritative and influential politicians of our time, because he was looking for and finding ways to solve the most difficult problems that Russia faced after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ruinous rule of Yeltsin. He got an extremely weak country, but he was able to stabilize the situation, and then significantly improve it.

But is the rise eternal, and the position of Russia unshakable? Creative stability is a fragile phenomenon: as Ukraine's example shows, a peaceful state plunged into chaos is a matter of several months. Vladimir Putin is not a revolutionary, not a religious prophet, not a moral writer, not an anointed of God. He is the President of the Russian Federation, registered in the oath, whose task is to protect the interests of his state. And the interests of his state require stability, which is vitally necessary for the continuation of the process of reviving the power of Russia.

Accordingly, the interests of the opposing party (that is, the collective West) require the destabilization of the competitor. World resources are getting smaller, the struggle for them is exacerbating, the theory and practice of domination of the "golden billion" is subject to revision. The current cold war against Russia is a march of modern conquistadors on El Dorado, only slightly camouflaged for a missionary mission.

To achieve the task of destroying Russia (reducing it to an insignificant level of the nineties or even disintegration), among other means, the Ukrainian factor is involved. The party is virtually win-win - either the West puts all of Ukraine, with its numerous and well-educated population, remnants of industry, remarkable lands, and forever splits the second-largest Slavic ethnos from an ambitious Russia. Either Russia itself is drawn into a grueling struggle for Ukraine, which devours all its free resources and is gradually sinking to the bottom with this heavy weight.

First of all, the president is responsible for the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, and therefore the calculation of enemies that the defeat in Ukraine will be a personal defeat for Putin. Part of the defeat of the victory was helped by the annexation of the Crimea and the appearance of an unexpected ally in the form of LDPR. We will be pragmatists: the Crimea was taken, first of all, for military-strategic reasons. Without it, the defense system of the Russian Federation would simply have collapsed: to transfer the most important peninsula under the control of the US - meant to lose the entire campaign without a single shot. No region of Ukraine had a similar value for the Russian Federation.

Of course, Putin is aware of the importance of the whole of Ukraine for the Russian Federation and since the beginning of his presidency has repeatedly spoken on this topic. Moreover, many times stressed that - in his opinion - Ukrainians and Russians, in fact, one people. Of course, the President of the Russian Federation is well aware of the doctrine of the "special significance of Ukraine" of the guru of American neocons Zbigniew Brzezinski (whatever true or not), which influences the pupils of his school - Condoleezza Rice, Victoria Nuland and others with whom he had to meet or work directly.

When they talk about the bravery of the Crimeans and the worthlessness of everyone else, let the reprover think how many times everything was ready for a decisive performance, for example, in Kharkov. And how many times a call was received from Moscow. The GDP itself, if you remember, said, they say, let the putschists only try to shoot at their citizens, on Russian people, there was an appeal of the legitimate President of Ukraine, and even the official permission of the Federation Council was obtained to use troops outside the Russian Federation ...

Let us imagine ourselves for a moment in the place of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. He has many sources of information, including a host of analysts or intelligence officers (and he listens to his former co-workers on GDP), the positions of various ministries and departments on a particular issue. But the decision is made by the "first person". The decision not to interfere, to recognize the election of Poroshenko or, conversely, to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine, is the president's decision. As well as the fullness of responsibility.

Russia suddenly retreats and starts a very difficult game. There is a struggle for maintaining stability within the state and, at the same time, an attempt to catch the attacker (stronger on a world scale) side on the counter. Throw a burning fire in their hand. From history, many examples of tactical retreats are recalled, for the sake of the coming victory. "Scythian tactics" enticement in the steppe (so often attributed to Western Russian historians), more than once justified itself. A classic example is the Patriotic War of 1812. The gain of time through the loss of territories was forced and repeatedly had to be used in the Great Patriotic War - so the loss of Kiev turned into a respite from the offensive of the Hitlerites in the Moscow direction.

The United West is much stronger than Russia alone and it seems that Putin too faced a difficult decision - surrendering Ukraine as a factor of time gain. To end the rearmament of the army, to solve the problem of food self-sufficiency, to create its own financial system, to search for situational allies, for the time necessary to start fermenting the rallied enemy in the camp.

But Putin clearly understands the importance of Ukraine, knows very well its economic agenda, and as a believer - also the spiritual and religious significance of Kiev. Will he really want to leave the battlefield for the defeated - both in 2004 and in 2014? Or to remain in history as a man whose rule - since the death of Ancient Rus - irretrievably lost the largest territory of Russian civilization (remember about "one people"?). Or quietly finish the new presidential term, having enjoyed the tit in his hand?

In fact, Putin has a very narrow corridor of opportunities. And as a leader he is not omnipotent, and as a person is subjective. However, he must rely not on the messianic sensations, but on objective data - intelligence, opinion polls (open and secret), the readiness of society to "tighten the belts" and much more. From the open data it is clear: Ukrainians are mostly wounded by the loss of the Crimea and the Donbas, and the calculations that the impoverishment of their own people will make the Ukrainian government more compliant until they come true. Moreover, they decide not for them, but for them. So the bombing of Germany by the Anglo-American allies could not overcome the intensity of Goebbels propaganda and the repressive power of the apparatus of the Third Reich.

Formally, the Americans have so far won: Ukraine in their paws, the Russian world, the Russian people suffered serious wounds. We proceeded from the pragmatic perception of the world and underestimated the role of ultranationalism. Despite the figures, the supporters of the Maidan are stubbornly saying, they say, life has become "better and more fun." And this gives the post-Maiden society a certain charge of a surprising outside observer of stability. On the part of the new formed class of beneficiaries of the coup in 2014, one should expect resistance to any attempts to intervene in the current, completely suited to their course of affairs in Ukraine. Their relatively small amount they compensate for by high mobility, at the right moment creating even a numerical superiority in critically important directions.

The change of regime is a matter of the decline in the number and influence of this hyperactive layer. It is possible to oppose them only their idea, their activity and their organizational capabilities. And more time. Putin can not afford a radical solution from the outside, he hopes for a solution from within. The decision from the outside indicates a clash with the consolidated West, already prepared guerrilla warfare, huge financial expenses, that is, the very destabilization that the Russian leader is trying to avoid in every possible way. The corridor of opportunities for activation will not open before the end of summer next year - after the presidential elections and the World Cup. And even better - after the launch of strategic pipelines and the end of rearmament of the army.

On the other hand, millions of Russian people in Ukraine have become hostages to risky geopolitical games. They want at any cost to stop the monstrous experiment set by the West and local policemen. Many of them say that liberation is possible exclusively by military means. I will say more, in some minutes and I think that the overthrow of the current clique is possible only in a similar way. But only in the event that it is the first to begin military operations.

Without getting involved in a fight, Russia can only promote the internal transformation in every possible way - either by changing the central power in Kiev and (or) informally increasing the political role of regions and local self-government. Then it will be possible to fully use the system of preferences and encouragement for the contractual ones: using the monstrous economic situation in the country, making responsible fanatics responsible for it, encouraging the waverers and those who repent. To go into "sensible" or stay in "fanatics" everyone decides for themselves. Or for him to decide others.

In the remaining time (and Putin is not in a hurry anywhere), it is possible and necessary to loosen the soil, not allowing cementing negative trends and Russophobia. Therefore, with the RF President's application, lawmakers work on a law simplifying the acquisition of Russian citizenship, Ukrainian subjects occupy hardly the main place on state TV, and various diplomatic negotiations continue. Time is playing against Ukraine.

The task of the Kiev puppets of the West is diametrically opposite: to accelerate and consolidate the divorce as much as possible, to make the disintegration processes irreversible and therefore to them, the more blood, the better. The main danger lies in this plane, Russia itself will not start a war. The main question of the future is how to heal the wounds inflicted? And we must think about this issue today.

Source: www.politnavigator.net

The blowing up of the ammo depots was a major victory, not only because of the ammunition destroyed but by the increased drain on manpower resources due to the need to provide guards

Autumn appeal will not save the army of Ukraine from collapse


Even in the "Piedmont" "unreliable" - Galicia, the number of people wishing to fight for the Donbass is nearing zero

Official Kiev summarizes the results of the autumn conscription for military service. And as usual, the Defense Ministry's reports are sustained in victorious colors: just as many recruits have been sent to the troops, as planned! Precision to the person!

Formally, everything is correct. And in fact - a failure. To understand this, you will have to plunge into the boring military-clerical statistics of this country. And then it turns out that in fact the result of the titanic work of the government of the "unflagging", the General Staff of the Armed Forces, military commissariats, local authorities, the prosecutor's office and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, sent 12,460 new soldiers and sailors to the barracks.

And at first, in October-November from the whole country planned to call in just 10,460 young people. But here in September the largest arsenal of armed forces in Kalinovka (Vinnytsia region) fell. At the Ministry of Defense, in response to reproaches in the weak organization of the service, they only shrugged their shoulders: "What can we do if, as a result of perennial and stupid army cuts, only Ukrainian grandmothers and grandfathers keep their Ukrainian ammunition depots in their sheepskin coats and their boots? Give another soldier, we will create guard companies. Then ask the military for the reliability of protection from saboteurs, hunters for non-ferrous metals and simple saboteurs. "

At the same time responding to the APU for the problem of Deputy Defense Minister Igor Pavlovsky noted that there are a lot of unexploded arsenals all over Ukraine. Therefore, in order to prevent barbed wire from the surrounding obstacles and the mouse, the number of servicemen in the army should be increased at once by 10-20 thousand people. And all the additional soldiers painted on guard duty.

It turned out that the number of young people to be drafted this fall should be doubled at once. And in total, send almost one or two full-blooded divisions to posts and watchtowers. Realizing the depth of the open abyss Kiev plan autumn draft immediately corrected. But, of course, not as much as General Pavlovsky suggested. A total of a couple thousand new recruits were added. So the final figure of the autumn draft was born - 12,460 people.

What is this for the largest European country, whose population has recently exceeded 40 million people? A drop in the sea. But here you go - about the performance of the General Staff dispatch report as a victory. Why did it happen?

And the whole thing is that there is this, seemingly joyful for Kiev statistics, and very disturbing for the ruling regime, the ideological wrong side. In fact, the autumn appeal in Ukraine revealed that its youth, with the active support of their parents, massively "mows" from the army. And if we consider this fact as a kind of all-Ukrainian referendum on the degree of support for young people and their families of the so-called "ATO", it turns out that this support is almost zero today.

However, nothing changes the fact that according to the law, conscript soldiers are forbidden to be sent to the front line in the Donbas. All interested parties know perfectly well that the commanders of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces have long learned to perfectly circumvent this ban. Served at least six months is the commander and strongly advises right here in the office, write a report about the desire to become an immediate contractor. If the refusal - the starting barracks pressure begins in the most severe form. The arsenal of funds for this is quite large, it is known to anyone who wore military uniforms. As a result, many recent conscripts go to trenches first. And then often - home in zinc coffins or in a hospital for treatment of a wound.

This is the first. And the second: the least willing to join the disorganized ranks of armed "power mongers", the fourth year besieging the Donbas, turned out to be precisely the bulwark of "Ukrainianness", in the "Ukrainian Piedmont" (in the words of the first chairman of the Central Rada, Professor Mikhail Grushevsky ) - on Galicia. If it is concrete - it is worst of all with this business in Lviv and Lviv region. This was announced on November 22 by the local military commissioner Alexander Tishchenko .

According to the military commissar, from the whole of the Lviv region in the fall it was possible to call for the service of about 600 people. But the comparative insignificance of the planned figures helped out. Because in general, 15,000 young people did not attend the draft commissions on summonses. The deputy head of the apparatus of Lviv regional administration Oksana Tomashuk commented this: "The situation with the call for urgent military service looks much better in the region. There, draftees also flee less from the troops and the relevant authorities are working more actively to notify, summon and deliver conscripts. But in the city of Leo there is a problem with the consciousness of the most recruits and with the work of local self-government bodies. "

The authorities of the region, of course, are fighting the deviationists as they can. And they can, as it turns out, mainly by a whip of coercion. That is why the region had to organize a real hunt for not wanting to wear epaulettes. As it happened on the night of November 4 in the Lviv nightclub Paradox in the Curve lime road in the city center. In the midst of merriment, the military in masks and flak jackets suddenly blocked all approaches to the building and began to check the documents of all the men of military age. According to eyewitnesses, they released only those who could show a student's full-time student card or documents that confirmed that the young man had already "knocked" for 27 years.

How many thus it was possible to catch soldiers for ВСУ, it is not informed. However, experience seems to have been recognized as successful. And two days later, on November 6, even the monastery of the Assumption of the Heart of Jesus of the UGCC in the Lviv region was raided by military commissars and law enforcement officers. After the evening prayer, when the novices were preparing for bed, Father Augustine Loiko told reporters: "Men in uniform, in masks, with armor, pulled sleepy guys out of cells and demanded from them metrics." The future invasive Vasilian monks, who could not explain their absence at the conscription commission, were handed in under the signature of the summons.

Very close to Lviv region - Volyn region. There, the percentage of people wishing to fight for the Donbass was no more. 9125 young people ignored the military commissions' agendas. And this is 60 percent of the whole contingent of Volyn for this period. Here is an opinion on this issue of the local regiment of Roman Kulik : "That is, young people deliberately" mow "from the army, preferring to go to work in the aggressor country, and then the same money to stroll in entertainment."

We go further along the Ukrainian west - the Transcarpathian region. It's quite bad here. The local population has long been strong "separatist" sentiment, and this is seriously worried about Kiev. Perhaps, therefore, the plan for the autumn draft in Transcarpathia was pre-cut in advance simply ridiculous - 155 people. We coped with it. But now the authorities have to think about how to deal with 4,500 deviators who did not pay their attention to military commissars.

If in the "Ukrainian Piemonte" and the stronghold of Banderovism with "patriotic sentiments" full seams, then what can we say about the other territories of "unflagging"? As expected, there was a massive flight from the threatening service. Igor Budnik , the military officer of the Kherson region, said that the plan for conscription for urgent service is 490 people, and in the region did not appear at the recruitment plots at the call of 9,840 people. In the Kharkov region, with the plan to send 1056 people to the troops, even under the threat of criminal prosecution, they decided in advance to "go into refusal" even more - about 15,000 young men.

Nothing like this was not in 2015, nor in the past years. Even two years ago, when the scale of the fighting in the southeast of Ukraine was much more fierce than today, when the Debaltsevo "kettle" blew with blood and the "boiler" of Ilovaisky was still not forgotten, the young Ukrainians did not run so fast from the army. Hence, despite the long-standing lull at the front, interrupted only by occasional gunfire, the mood of the Ukrainian population is clearly something going on. And this "something" is simply obliged to alarm Kiev, if the regime reigning in it intends to survive politically.

Undoubtedly, the public of a neighboring country has long been tired of a long civil war. But for sure, even more - from the fact that no one can even roughly describe what it will be like and when it will end. The only "road map" existing in this direction - the Minsk agreements - is not viable from the very beginning. Even politicians in Kiev openly admit this. But neither they nor their partners in negotiations from other European capitals can offer anything in return.

In these conditions, the Ukrainian army is the most difficult. Even if she was able to solve the case with a blitzkrieg, nobody would let her do it. Not only Russia, which has already stated that under all circumstances will not let the Donbass drown in the blood. Observance of even the appearance of a truce is required by the West. Kiev will not be able to ignore his opinion at all desire.

Therefore, the front line in the Donets Basin can not significantly change for many more years. It turns out that the Ukrainian soldiers and officers still have as much stupidity and pointless rot in the trenches? To whom after the heart such a fate? Is it surprising that fewer and fewer people want to join the ranks of participants with almost all the annoying "ATO"?

In such conditions, reports from the Ukrainian capital report, the command of the Armed Forces for raising the morale of the long-deceased personnel makes the only possible thing - it regularly organizes the seemingly absolutely meaningless small sallies of subversive and reconnaissance groups and the "improvement of positions" by seizing certain heights and settlements in the "gray zone". It does not really affect anything and does not bring about a general victory. But the military creates the illusion of its own usefulness for the cause they serve. And at least somehow the decaying personnel forces to catch up.

So, by the way, they always do in any army. For example, by 1917 the Russian army in the trenches of the First World War was stuck no less hopelessly than the current Ukrainian one in the Donbas. To prevent growing desertion and mass fraternization with the Germans, the tsarist generals repeatedly tried to organize offensives at least on certain axes. For this purpose, the selected parts from the volunteers were formed, called shock drums. But all is vain.

Examples of equally vain attempts to raise morale can also be found in the history of the Great Patriotic War. At least this: maybe you've heard about one of the "blackest" days in the annals of our Black Sea fleet, which came on October 6, 1943?

The Crimea has long been abandoned. Remained in the ranks of large warships for more than a year languishing in inaction in the Caucasian bases. Suddenly, for many, the leader of the Kharkov and the destroyers "Capable" and "Merciless" was ordered to leave the sea as a part of the detachment and to fire at the captured Yalta and Theodosia by night.

From the very beginning it was clear that the effectiveness of the raid would at best be close to zero. Because without any correction from a long distance in the night it was necessary to shoot like a penny. There was practically no chance to hit something worthwhile in the ports of ports.

Everything turned out to be much worse than these assumptions. We will not go into the tragic details. But after completing the task, when departing from the Crimean coast, German aviation was first sank by the leader of Kharkiv, and then by both our destroyers. They managed to save only the few members of their crews. The Black Sea Fleet did not know such near-instant losses in that war neither before nor after October 6, 1943.

For many years I was interested in the question: why all this was conceived and done by the fleet headquarters? Why did our best ships and hundreds of sailors die? In my opinion, the answer was received from the former torpedo boats of the late Admiral Viktor Protsenko , who lived in Sevastopol, the former commander of the 2nd Novorossiisk Brigade . His boats then near the Kharkov, "Capable" and "Merciless" were also based on the Caucasus.

So, Victor Trofimovich frankly admitted: "After the abandonment of the Crimea, the surviving large ships commanded by orders of the Supreme Headquarters as the apple of their eye. They did not leave the berths for months. In the crews of idleness, decay began. Discipline fell sharply. There were cases of drunkenness, looting and desertion. The sailors needed to be shaken up somehow, to force them to take up the service again. Nothing better than the flood operation on Feodosia and Yalta, the leaders of the Black Sea Fleet could not come up with. It was a huge tragedy. "

It may seem that this is an example from a completely different era and from another "opera." Where is our failed raid on the Crimea in 1943 and where the failed autumn call in Ukraine? In my opinion, the connection is direct. In both cases, it is a question of low morale in military collectives. In any case, in today's Ukraine, this seems to feel the whole people, except for the most rabid part of it. And this is not history. Harsh reality, which for the official Kiev is fraught with collapse.

Source: svpressa.ru

A
Update:


Awaiting for the end of year summaries from the Donetsk republic, here's a summary of the war this year, gathering my postings during the autumn. The war is being won and lost. The pendulum is swinging to the center.

Ammunition shortage

Artillery ammunition will run out more or less within a year after major losses of stocks in depot explosions at Kharkov in spring and Vinnitsa in autumn. Some deliveries of small arms and cartridges from Eastern Europe only stretch out the supply, don't solve the problem


Mass draft dodging

There's mass draft dodging (70% on average, in some regions 90%) and the Ukrainian army is shrinking from a combination of casualties, desertion , and mass quitting of soldiers who have finished their term and are leaving the ranks, demoralized or upset for wages unpaid.

Quote:


"Nothing like this was not in 2015, nor in the past years. Even two years ago, when the scale of the fighting in the southeast of Ukraine was much more fierce than today, when the Debaltsevo "kettle" boiled with blood and the "boiler" of Ilovaisky was still not forgotten, the young Ukrainians did not run so fast from the army. Hence, despite the long-standing lull at the front, interrupted only by occasional gunfire,

[that's the fiction officially reported by everybody concerned, both sides and their sponsors, actually just from listening everyday to the cannonade and gun fire coming from the front is obvious a real war is going on, every day]


there is clearly something going on the mood of the Ukrainian population . And this "something" is going to alarm Kiev for sure, if the regime reigning in it intends to survive politically."


Desertion

This year there have been more than 5.000 deserters (or 5% of the hundred thousand army total), of wich only 2.000 are in search and capture. This comes from Ukrainian sources and is very relevant and significant as they are for the most part irrecoverable casualties. It's a very high percentage, in modern history, an army with a 10% desertion rate is on the verge of collapse. It's also even more striking considering the Ukrainian army is now mostly a volunteer force on contract, at least the half in the frontline, and conscripts in theory are not sent anymore to the first line of combat, though troop shortages have made commanderts to resort to use them to guard line of communications (road checkpoints) and construction of trenches.

Again it's a very high number because for 2014-2015 there were 10 thousand desertions, and the number was maxed out then as it is in the initial phase of a civil war when soldiers caught in the wrong zone switch sides or desert. Since then, the regime has ceased to try conscript Russian-speakers from Eastern Ukraine and keep them away from the frontlines, while the brunt of the recruiting falls on Western Ukraine.

I am of the opinion, shared by others, that as in 2014-2015 the junta is hiding partially its numbers of killed in action reporting them as deserters and missing. That could well explain the contradiction of the official figures of a total of 5,500 deserters and only arrest warrants issued for 2,000, wich in addition includes those deserters from previous years. Not bothering to do the paperwork for "deserters", wich they know they are actually dead.


So that would indicate a concealed figure of at least 3.500 killed in combat this year, wich given that the fighting has been comparable or more intense this year than in 2016, and the reports about arrival of wounded to rear hospitals, and graves being dug in advance of mass burials, makes it quite plausible means a total of between 5.000-7.000 killed this year.

There's also evidence that this 5.500 deserters figure may be accurate, on top of the combat losses. I heard from a source in the militia in Lugansk that in their sector of the frente they received many Ukrainian soldiers that came over to Novorussian lines to surrender. Could not have been more that a few dozens over months, I didn't make it much out of it, other than the confirmation that the junta army was so short of troops they had to send unwilling conscripts to the front, and these taking the opportunity to switch sides or simply surrendering to avoid misery, wounds and death, wich again, confirms the war is quite intense and the risk of being killed is high enough to make desertion or surrender and attractive choice.


In theory the frontline soldiers are volunteers, but it seems that many are "ordered to volunteer"

Quote:

"However, nothing changes the fact that according to the law, conscript soldiers are forbidden to be sent to the front line in the Donbas. All interested parties know perfectly well that the commanders of the Ukrainian army have long learned to perfectly circumvent this ban. After served at least six months the recruit is advsied by its commanders to write a statement about the desire to become an immediate contractor. If the conscript refuses - the starting barracks pressure begins in the most severe form. The arsenal of pressure methofs for this is quite large, it is known to anyone who wore military uniform. As a result, many recent conscripts "volunteer" to go to trenches . And then often - home in zinc coffins or in a hospital for treatment."



That would explain why some came over to the Novorussian trenches to surrender, either are conscripts, or "forced volunteers", but there could also be contract volunteers having enough of it, wich confirms the low morale of the Ukrainian troops. I repeat these are thousands of desertions, not just abandoning positions or being absent without leave, that undiscipline is a common occurrence.

I think the reported desertion number is just a way to conceal the dead, and those only of the regular those of the paramilitary, police, and the nazi battallions are never accounted for. But given the mass draft dodging at the rear and some supporting evidence of demoralization at the front it's quite possible it's a true figure.

Manpower crisis


Now it's quite obvious in hidnsight and explains why there was no summer offensive this year, not even the usual aggravation as in previous summers, because the Ukrainian army was exhausted and lacking in manpower, reaching is lowest in June, with 40.000 bayonets, with coincided with some small tactical gains here and there by the Novorussians, either by coup de main, or occupation of abandoned positions.


Another call up of conscripts this autumn is failing to met quotas, and anyway, any replacements will be absorbed by the need to guard remaining ammunition warehouses against sabotage, wich would absorb a minimum of 10 thousand troops. No improvement at all has been seen in Ukrainian army, wich despite NATO instructors and advisers keeps stupidly killing its troops in senseless unsupported small attacks, and the artillery is not firing better.

Quote:

"In such conditions, sources from the Ukrainian capital report, the command of the Armed Forces for raising the morale of the long-demoralized personnel makes the only possible thing - it regularly organizes the seemingly absolutely meaningless small sallies of subversive and reconnaissance groups and the "improvement of positions" by seizing certain heights and settlements in the "gray zone". It does not really affect anything and does not bring about a general victory. But the military creates the illusion of its own usefulness for the cause they serve. And at least it keeps the soldiers busy"




There's now approximate parity in number of forces in the frontline, with each side having 40 thousand bayonets, but Donbass has now a higher potential for mobilization of trained reserves. Behind the front, Kiev has only poorly armed occupation troops, and in theory has more manpower, but it's dubious they can reenlist the surviving conscripts from the years 2014-2015, wich likely have fled the country, or would go into hiding, and would be of very low morale if dragged to the front to fight again.

It's clear that the repressive machinery of the state has not the means nor manpower to catch but a fraction of draft dodgers when there's such a mass evasion.


That's the gist of it. For more and sources, use google translate to read my blog entry.

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/resumen-2017/

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/resumen-2017/

Just found this

Conflict Intelligence Team
11 November ·

Researcher https://twitter.com/666_mancer drew attention to an order of the leader of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" Alexander Zakharchenko of the awarding of a watch to Sergei Yurievich Istrakov "for a significant personal contribution to the formation and development of the Donetsk People's Republic." The message was posted on the official website of the self-proclaimed republic.

https://old.dnr-online.ru/…/rasporiazhglavaN337_19102017.pdf

A commander with this name currently holds the post of deputy chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. In 2014-2015 he was the head of the General Staff of the Ground Forces.

One can only guess what contribution a Russian colonel-general made to the "formation and development" of the DNR.

Report from the fighting in Lugansk in the night 12-13 December.


Message from Marina Kharkova : The night of December 13 for residents of four cities of Lugansk People's Republic: Bryanki, Irmino, Pervomaisk and Stakhanov became the same. as the worst days of 2014. In the evening of December 12, the APU opened fire on the villages of Kalinovo, the village of Almaznaya, the outskirts of the town of Stakhanov. Then at night on the entire sector front from the Ukrainian side began to be heard volleys of heavy guns caliber 122 and 152 millimeters. The roar of large-caliber guns did not stop until 2 am. The Ukrainian military tried to shoot heavy howitzers delivered to the front line during the last two weeks. Heavy weapons, military equipment, ammunition are first brought by rail to the station Popasnaya, and then distributed to different sections of the Lugansk front.
The front line of the LDP literally equated with the ground. The losses are not reported, as is customary all this time. In the morning the APU conducted a counter-battery fight, after which it was quieter.
However, the situation is still alarming. The APU continues to force heavy artillery to the front. Throughout Bakhmutka, we finished digging the caponiers for the tanks. The technique was failed, but not yet driven into them.
Also there is information that Bakhmutka is dug by rat burrows, as in Syria IGIL did. Sabotage saboteurs are walking under the highway and hit the positions of Lugansk army.

source: http://novoros-news.com/

The Ukrainian general named the main problems of the AFU
13 December, 23:02
   The deputy commander of the land forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for logistics Major General Yuri Tolonchny told us what the burning problems of the Ukrainian army are. Among them - a deficit of ammunition and inefficiency of armored vehicles.

   T-64 Bulat


   In general, he said, there was a very "serious situation with ammunition" - the Ukrainian army has "a number of scarce calibers," including rifle, artillery and missile. As a result, limits on the consumption of artillery ammunition have been introduced in the army, and in a year or two a shortage of ammunition will be critical. In connection with this, he called the construction of the cartridge factory in Ukraine "a screaming necessity."

   He pointed to the failed Ukrainian developments. So, the upgraded tank T-64BM "Bulat", he said, was "unsuccessful in real combat."

   "T-64BM Bulat tanks were inefficient due to their heavy weight and weak engine, they were transferred to the reserve and replaced by linear T-64s," Tolokny explained. According to him, the potential for modernization of old tanks is almost exhausted.

   The major-general noted that serious problems exist in the Air Force of the country - in particular, the difficult situation with spare parts and the degree of deterioration of the park.

   "They endlessly extend the lifespan of technology, but you know, it's one thing - to extend the lifespan, say, the tank, and quite another - the aircraft. The consequences of failure are completely different. Therefore, a significant part of the fleet of vehicles in the air does not rise into the air, "Tolokny said , adding that the airfield network was also destroyed during the years of independence.

franco wrote:According to this report, the Ukrainian army had to pull back from the two villages they had taken in the grey area bordering Donetsk. The villages are in a low land overlooked by the NAF holding the high ground and causalities got too high.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/ukrainian-army-forced-to-retreat-from.html

I wondered about this and wanted to ask if you guys had any news about these 2 villages in the grey zone.

Nov30 [#Donetsk rgn] @aleksander21966 "My borther-in-arms today in #Travneve and #Hladosove. And the @OSCE cannot travel there, [because] 'the asphalt is mined'"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DP5Rcw6XcAAZGqN.jpg

Reuters publishes photos of Travneve retaken by Ukraine's army

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/war/2260984-reuters-publishes-photos-of-travneve-retaken-by-ukraines-army.html

https://images.unian.net/photos/2017_11/1511515338-2604.jpeg

The Ukrops "advanced" and occupied the two villages in no-man's-land, Gladosovo and Metallist (before the decommunization renaming). A few platoons. A senseless move, since the villages are dominated from the heights where the main line of resistance of the Novorussians is sited, so the enemy troops there take constant casualties from sniping and machine gun fire. So the defenders are in not a hurry to push them out of the villages, as keeping a garrison there makes the orks incurr in constant casualties.

Still, it's an irritant for the defenders because more enemy fire falls on Gorlovka and surrounding villages. It would be best to dislodge them, but I am not a trained infantry officer and can't asses if it is worth it or not.

They talk about it in today weekly summary

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-weekly-situation-report-12152017

They talk about the enemy sustaining two dozen dead as if it were a big deal. It's one killed per day. As usual, that is only what the enemy is admitting. Judging by the helicopter medevacs going on and the dozens of wounded arriving at Kiev and Kharkov hospitals, the situation is far worse. Anyway, that's only one hot spot of a front that has many chronic ulcers, like the Promko zone at Avdeyevka.

Basically it seems that the Ukrops wanted to make a good push against Gorlovka but got bogged down in those two villages due to incompetent planning and poor operational security. Business as usual.

a little confirmation of the casualties, from the Ukrainain side. In spoiler because there's a long list of casualties, wich is interesting in showing the age of the troopers.



Ukrainian volunteer said that the headquarters of "ATO" more than two times understates the number of losses of APU

Spoiler:

"Just think, the headquarters of" ATO "for a month and a half announced the death of 22 of its servicemen, and the volunteers took out of the" ATO "body of 49 dead fighters of the Ukrainian army," writes Cherny.


Comment: It's actually much worse than what this volunteer can see. And that's just coming from one hot spot of the front.

Ispan wrote: a little confirmation of the casualties, from the Ukrainain side. In spoiler because there's a long list of casualties, wich is interesting in showing the age of the troopers.



Ukrainian volunteer said that the headquarters of "ATO" more than two times understates the number of losses of APU

Spoiler:

"Just think, the headquarters of" ATO "for a month and a half announced the death of 22 of its servicemen, and the volunteers took out of the" ATO "body of 49 dead fighters of the Ukrainian army," writes Cherny.


Comment: It's actually much worse than what this volunteer can see. And that's just coming from one hot spot of the front.

Thank you Ispan for both posts.

Here we go, this is not good.

The OSCE Mission to Ukraine on December 14 reported on Russia's intention to withdraw its officers from the SCCC. On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the further work of the Russian Federation in the framework of the SCCC in the east of Ukraine became impossible.

In this regard, the Russian side terminates its activities within the SCCC on December 19. The Russian ministry was reminded that SCCC faced serious difficulties due to the position of the Ukrainian authorities. Kiev, for example, categorically objected to any documentary regulation of the functioning of the center. Attempts to resolve this issue at the bilateral level, on the Minsk contact group platform or in the "Normandy format" were not successful.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation reported that they had already informed foreign partners about this forced step, stressing that all responsibility for possible consequences lies entirely with the Ukrainian side.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/utter-failure-of-minsk-2-russian.html

JohninMK wrote:Here we go, this is not good.

The OSCE Mission to Ukraine on December 14 reported on Russia's intention to withdraw its officers from the SCCC. On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the further work of the Russian Federation in the framework of the SCCC in the east of Ukraine became impossible.

In this regard, the Russian side terminates its activities within the SCCC on December 19. The Russian ministry was reminded that SCCC faced serious difficulties due to the position of the Ukrainian authorities. Kiev, for example, categorically objected to any documentary regulation of the functioning of the center. Attempts to resolve this issue at the bilateral level, on the Minsk contact group platform or in the "Normandy format" were not successful.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation reported that they had already informed foreign partners about this forced step, stressing that all responsibility for possible consequences lies entirely with the Ukrainian side.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/utter-failure-of-minsk-2-russian.html

It smells like new round of war is coming.

Reposting this for future reference on past week aggravation

Topwar.ru


Military Review ● Analytics
What did the APU "feel" during the beginning of the withdrawal of troops from Syria? The boiling of the situation in the Donbas has an interesting parallel
Yesterday, 06:49 AM


Immediately two of the most important military and political developments occurred in recent days in the region of Asia. And each of them became for the Western coalition, as well as Israel, a kind of "warning shot", pointing to the unacceptability of the continuation of the previous aggressive and frankly hegemonic military-political vector in the Middle East. The first can be attributed to the decision of Vladimir Putin, the command of the Russian Air Force and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces on the partial withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from the Syrian theater, which included: 25 flying vehicles (2 Ka-52 attack helicopters, 6 tactical fighter-bombers Su-30SM Su-34, Su-35S and front-line bombers of the mixed wing of the VKS), detachment of the mine clearing center (including Typhoon armored vehicles, BTR-82AM and robotic complexes "Uran-6"), the Spn division, the military police and military field unit the capital. The order was given by V.Putin during his arrival at the airbase of Khmeimim on Monday, December 11, 2017.

There is nothing surprising, at first sight, in the withdrawal of most of the military units of the Russian Armed Forces (except for the S-400 air defense missile regiment in Khmeimim and the S-300V4 batteries in Tartus) from the SAR. After all, the opponents in the face of the territorial groupings of IGIL are almost completely defeated or are in several tactical boilers on the west bank of the Euphrates (a 150-kilometer boiler between the provinces of Homs and Deir ez Zor and a 35-kilometer cauldron north of Abu Kemal) boilers on SDF-controlled territory (including a 171-kilometer cauldron along the eastern border of the Syrian Arab Republic and a cauldron adjacent to Abu-Kemal on the east side of the Euphrates river bed). To clean up these enclaves on the eastern bank of the Euphrates, the existing potential of the Syrian Arab Army is sufficient.


But there is in this "withdrawal" from Syria a very indicative geopolitical "trick", designed to put Washington on an honestly deserved place in the "Middle East cobwebbing." Assigning the operational grouping of troops (including military advisors and specialists) from the line of contact between the AAA and the "Syrian Democratic Forces" passing along the Euphrates channel, Moscow leaves the pro-American Kurdish forces (YPG / YPJ) one on one with such formidable opponents as at times exceeding on the strength of the Armed Forces of Turkey, the SAA, the Iraqi army, the Guard Corps of the Islamic Revolution, etc. Naturally, it will be much more difficult for the Americans to resolve the situation in their favor (without Russia's participation), especially against the backdrop of Washington's removal from the peace process in the Middle East during the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). High-ranking representatives of the Arab states markedly limited the participation of Americans in the "Great Front Asian Redistribution".

All the moments connected with the opposition of the Arab world to the decision of Donald Trump in Jerusalem can be easily found in the statements made by high-ranking officials at the OIC meeting on December 13, and therefore there is absolutely no sense to review and analyze them again.

A much more interesting analytical chain can be built by drawing parallels between the withdrawal of a part of the Russian contingent from Syria and the suddenly aggravated operational and tactical situation at the Donbas theater of operations. Late in the evening, December 11, 2017, just hours after the order given by Vladimir Putin for the withdrawal of troops from the SAR, the Western and Northern fronts of the Donetsk People's Republic "exploded" as if by magic wands from a sudden massive artillery strike from several batteries at the same time barrel artillery of APU. Under fire were n. Dokuchaevsk, Gorlovka, Zaitsevo, Logvinovo, the surroundings of Uglegorsk, the entire Svetlodar bridgehead and many more villages. According to the Mayor of Gorlovka, Ivan Prikhodko, closer to midnight, the fire of the enemy was de-energized at once 3 boiler houses (No. 29, 69 and 70), and a direct hit was also recorded in the house at ul. Rybalko 28. Dozens of apartments and houses left without heating. The next day, Ukrainian artillery worked mainly on Dokuchaevsk, as a result of which 29 houses were damaged along the street. Furmanov, Frunze, Central, Komsomol, Gorky, etc. Ukrainian self-propelled and towed artillery systems Msta-B, Hyacinth-B, D-30, Akatsiya and Gvozdika worked with previously known positions at Novotroitsky, Olgininka, Novomikhailovka (Dokuchaevsky); and also near Panteleymonovka, Kurdyumovka, Svetlodarsky (Debaltsevo and Gorlovsky OH), due to which some batteries of the aggressor were quickly destroyed by counterbattery fire of the artillery units of the NM DNR to suppress.

Even the dilettante is very clear here that this is not a mere coincidence, but pure law is a regularity. The level of correlation between the completion of the decisive part of the confrontation of the Russian contingent with the IG and the activation of Ukrainian military formations in the Donbass is extremely large. This massive blow to the frontline settlements of the NDP is nothing more than a provocative "probing" of Moscow for the willingness to participate in active hostilities against the backdrop of a partial shift in the "focus" of interests from Damascus towards the Donbas. "Testing" was done exclusively on the command of "FAS" from the Pentagon. The desired result, except counterbattery fire, neither Kiev nor Washington could not achieve. What did Washington want? Naturally, more aggressive and decisive actions by the People's Militia Corps of the People's Republic of France (local offensive, the release of settlements in the "gray zone", etc.), which could only be implemented by a signal from Washington. Logically, this would be a clear signal for the tramp hawks in favor of forcing the head of the White House to sign a 47-million package of military aid (including lethal weapons) that was sent by the US National Security Council to the Congress in October-November 2017 of the year; but he did not "focus"!

As a result, the West temporarily found another loophole for the official supply of "non-lethal" lethal weapons, bypassing the Trump administration. As the main supplier of lethal weapons, Canada agreed to speak. The bill was ratified on December 13, 2017. For the ears and the eyes of ordinary people, the document provides for possible transfer to the Ukrainian side of automatic small arms, hand-held anti-tank weapons and "other types of devices" in the arsenal of the Canadian army. The process will be carried out within the framework of intra-block military and technical cooperation between the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance and some friendly with NATO states. After a little work on the brain, one can imagine that from now on Ottawa becomes an ordinary mediator for sending Ukrainian fighters various types of weapons, including, for example, American ATGM "Javelin" (disease of Ukrainian bloggers and some parliamentarians), ATGM "TOW", or various corrected high-precision projectiles for 155-mm ACS that can be obtained "unreliable" both from Poland (based on the AS-90 / Krab ASU towers) and from the USA (M-109 Paladin of various variants).

But in official news reports, this information will only appear after the militarycore has discovered the facts of the presence of new weapons in the Donbas. Such a way to pump the APU with weapons to continue the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass is extremely convenient for the United States. In fact, there is no formal legislative approval of the transfer of lethal weapons from the White House, which allows Trump's administration not to officially violate Kurt Volcker's and Trump's commitment to the "Minsk agreements" and the "Norman format". As a scapegoat here will act Canada, which absolutely does not care about our reaction; Moreover, Ottawa is not tied to the various "Minsk" and other "film charters" developed with the assistance of the European "bedding" of the United States. In fact, Canada can be considered another unincorporated organized territory of the United States, but with a different sovereignty and modified legislation, and therefore an excellent tool of the White House to implement various half-shadow schemes for military support of unfavorable pro-Western regimes in Eastern Europe and Central Asia without their own direct participation. It is obvious that falling into the hands of the Kiev junta of Canadian and American lethal weapons will exacerbate the situation in the Donbass, forcing the military leadership of the republics to act more resolutely and expeditiously than in the situation with the settlements of Gladosovo and Travnevoye. And in a full-scale round of escalation, all this can grow by the beginning of 2018 or the beginning of the presidential company in March 2018.

As for the recent statement by the deputy commander of the operational command of the Dniester Democratic Republic Eduard Bazurin regarding a possible offensive throat on the Gorlovsky operational line, with the likely capture of Zaitsevo and Gorlovka, based on information about the concentration of the APU armored formations, several Grad MRSA batteries, and barrel artillery in the villages on the line "Artemovsk - Konstantinovka - Svetlodarsk", then if such a probability exists, its percentage is extremely small, since it is advancing into the front the second most powerful fortified HM DNI - Gorlovka-Enakievo agglomeration APU will not be solved even with shtatovskih support. The anti-tank units present in this direction are already enough today to wipe out most of the Ukrainian armored units, including reserves, from the face of the earth. In the risk zone, there continues to be a thin "Telmanovsky Isthmus", the northern boundaries of which are precisely formed by the Dokuchaev direction, which is by far the most active part of the work of Ukrainian artillery.

Information sources:
https://nahnews.org/999220-ukraina-gotovit-nastuplenie-v-donbasse-vsu-styagivayut-pod-gorlovku-novye-sily
http://www.ntv.ru/cards/90/
Author: Evgeny Damantsev

littlerabbit wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Here we go, this is not good.

The OSCE Mission to Ukraine on December 14 reported on Russia's intention to withdraw its officers from the SCCC. On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the further work of the Russian Federation in the framework of the SCCC in the east of Ukraine became impossible.

In this regard, the Russian side terminates its activities within the SCCC on December 19. The Russian ministry was reminded that SCCC faced serious difficulties due to the position of the Ukrainian authorities. Kiev, for example, categorically objected to any documentary regulation of the functioning of the center. Attempts to resolve this issue at the bilateral level, on the Minsk contact group platform or in the "Normandy format" were not successful.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation reported that they had already informed foreign partners about this forced step, stressing that all responsibility for possible consequences lies entirely with the Ukrainian side.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/utter-failure-of-minsk-2-russian.html

It smells like new round of war is coming.

Reading twitter today (Patrick Lancaster)  and Kiev Post today, it appears that both sides used grads today.

Just my opinion, but I think the Ukrainians are pushing it, so they can blame the rebels.

I'm not sure if Peacekeepers is the outcome they want, or lethal weapons, which I believe Canada just recently said they would sell to Ukraine, or what exactly the objective is, if there is one, other than Poroshenko not being toppled from power, but I think they think they have an objective, imho,  & they think pushing conflict will achieve it. However from what I read by money man (Rothschild), conflict is not an objective they want. The objective Rothschild and others who want to invest in Ukraine, is no conflict, and Rothschild is not impressed with the Right Sector etc group. Nor are they impressed with Poroshenko, and Kiev politicians ethnic conflict against Eastern Ukrainian citizens (Donbass), as it will solve nothing long-term, but likely (imho) lead to the country splitting.

So, will see what OSCE monitoring mission reports tomorrow. If they report grad use by both sides, which seems to be what happened.


It's a long interview. i read it with google translate.

Director of Rothschild in the CIS: Clients refused to buy Roshen because of risks
Ekaterina Shumilo, for UP
Wednesday, December 13

The biggest failure is the political struggle and the use of populism by some political forces. This dramatic situation, which has been observed in Ukraine in recent years, is aimed at gaining popularity, and not solving urgent problems.


The implementation of radical reforms requires a high level of responsibility and unity between political forces if they really care about the future of their country.

Haste and a rigid schedule of privatization is just a short-term political PR, which has no chance of implementation.


Director of Rothschild in the CIS: Clients refused to buy Roshen because of risks
Ekaterina Shumilo, for UP
Wednesday, December 13

Managing Director of the world-famous banking house Rothschild in Kiev is a frequent guest. For more than 10 years, Salvetti has been involved in the most high-profile transactions in Ukraine.

Over the past year, under his leadership, Rothschild advised Metinvest on debt restructuring about $ 3 billion, and DTEK - on the restructuring of their 2.5 billion.

Also in September of this year, he advised the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on issuing Eurobonds worth $ 3 billion. And now the banking house helps Naftogaz in the issue of strategic partnership with Ukrtransgaz, having won a tender for ProZorro. Rothschild also deduces the company "Mriya" from debts.

Salvetti is a closed person. His last interview he gave the magazine "Forbes-Ukraine" more than two years ago. Then he was very eager to discuss Ukraine's privatization and investment climate, but managed "no comment" when it came to his clients, including the company of President Poroshenko Roshen, which is sold by the banking house.

Now for "Ukrainian Truth" Giovanni Salvetti agreed to give a more capacious interview.

The most effective reforms are the energy sector and Naftogaz

- More than two years ago, we discussed the most pressing issues at that time. In preparation for today's talk, I noticed that half of those issues remain relevant today. Do you think the Ukrainian government has done much in this time?

- Over the past three years, Ukraine has made significant progress. It is necessary to take into account the conditions under which reforms were carried out - the war in the East, de facto, the restriction of the main trade channels with the Donbas and Russia, hyperinflation and the economic recession.

I'm not surprised that most Ukrainians in recent years are very unhappy with the general deterioration of economic conditions and a significant increase in tariffs. But such radical reforms are important to lay the foundation of a modern economy. This already pays off, and it seems to me that civil society is beginning to realize this.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2017/12/13/7165348/

Bit more from Fortruss on the Russian withdrawal. My highlight. Clearly a plan to get rid of them for a reason.

On December 18th, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that 75 officers of Russia’s armed forces are quitting the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire in Donbass stationed in Soledar (Ukrainian-occupied DPR territory). Further work of the Russian officers in the JCCC has been deemed “impossible” due to their lack of jurisdiction and an intense psychological and political atmosphere. According to Russia’s defense ministry, the Ukrainians have deliberately impeded Russian officers from carrying out their duties. Their freedom of movement has been severely restricted, and Ukrainian spies have accompanied the Russian officers wherever they go.

The straw that broke the camel’s back, however, was Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada’s adoption of a new law on Russian citizens visiting Ukraine set to enter into force on January 1, 2018. In particular, this new law compels all Russian officers from the JCCC visiting Ukraine to disclose all information on their place of birth, the location of their families, their service and training records, etc. In other words, Russian officers helping to monitor the ceasefire have been subjected to overt psychological pressure and their families could be put in danger.

The JCCC was established to resolve practical problems facing the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission, whose employees initially appealed to Russian officers from the JCCC to handle communication with the command of the armies of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as coordinate the routes of international observers. Russian officers therefore fulfilled the role of intermediaries, insofar as the Ukrainians and OSCE SMM are not in direct contact the unrecognized DPR and LPR. This scheme is far from convenient, but it was accepted as necessary in the midst of the critical situation in Donbass.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/war-on-horizon-russian-aides-pressured.html

Inevitable I suppose but the weapons floodgates are inching open. Wonder how Russia will respond?

The Trump administration has approved the first ever U.S. commercial sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, in a clear break from the de facto U.S. ban on arms sales that dates back to the Obama administration. The move was heavily supported by top Trump national security Cabinet officials and Congress but may complicate President Trump’s stated ambition to work with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Administration officials confirmed that the State Department this month approved a commercial license authorizing the export of Model M107A1 Sniper Systems, ammunition, and associated parts and accessories to Ukraine, a sale valued at $41.5 million. These weapons address a specific vulnerability of Ukrainian forces fighting a Russian-backed separatist movement in two eastern provinces. There has been no approval to export the heavier weapons the Ukrainian government is asking for, such as Javelin antitank missiles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/12/20/trump-administration-approves-lethal-arms-sales-to-ukraine/?utm_term=.17732a9531a8

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-20/unexpected-move-trump-enacts-obama-era-law-opening-us-arms-sales-ukraine#comment-10875021

"Strengthen the APU grouping": what forces Poroshenko wants to storm Donbass




Anti-Maidan news

War in Ukraine




2017-12-21 15:00

Withdrawal from the Special Center for the Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire (SCQC) of Russian servicemen, in exchange for which President Poroshenko is already ready to call on German and French observers, called the topic of talks about a new offensive on Donetsk and Lugansk.

It is alleged that the APU has already prepared about 600 self-propelled artillery units in the ATU zone , ready to wipe out towns and villages in the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of Hungary.

The new "popular sign" of recent years in Ukraine - with the onset of winter cold AFU are preparing to storm the rebellious Donbas. This year was not an exception - against the backdrop of intensified shelling of Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities, there appeared information about the contraction of artillery guns and self-propelled installations into the combat zone. We are talking about hundreds of large caliber artillery barrels.

"The APU has well mastered artillery systems in the zone of operations in the Donbass," said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Technology Strategies. - Tank "wedges," in the manner of Guderian's army, were never used, Ukrainian combat aircraft after losses suffered in 2014 practically do not rise from airfields, ground attacks are met with fierce resistance from the militia, which leads to a large number of losses. Artillery is much more effective - it allows you to hit targets, if you can call them houses of civilians, schools and hospitals, from a safe distance. The Ukrainian military, which in the beginning of "ATO" with special accuracy did not differ and sometimes covered their "friendly fire", as they say, shot themselves.

It is not surprising that in case of resumption of hostilities in the Donbass, they will actively use artillery installations. Another issue is that, firstly, there are not many things left for the Ukrainian army in the working state of technology for the Ukrainian army, and secondly, there is not enough ammunition - stocks from Soviet arsenals are either sold or shot. So the massive artillery fire attacks are impossible by definition. "

Picture

Ukrainian military analysts themselves say that the amount of new equipment in the Armed Forces is 2-3 percent. Another two percent are shipments from abroad, but these are either second-hand American Hummer cars or inflatable boats. And even the current statement of the State Department on the possible supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine implies only the export of small arms - sniper rifles M107A1. On heavy weapons, including artillery, it does not go. And what is left in the Ukrainian storage?

Picture

The most numerous type of self-propelled artillery systems (ACS) in Ukraine is 122-mm 2С1 "Gvozdika", which number is more than 230 units. However, even in the Soviet Army, where it entered service in 1971, there were many of them, so it is not surprising that the legacy of the APU was so numerous. Modernization of these automatic control systems was carried out by Russia (2C34 Hosta), Poland, Romania, Iran and Bulgaria, which significantly improved its armament and driving performance. At Kharkiv Tractor Plant in 2016 3 (!) "Carnations" was modernized, which was expressed in major repairs and replacement of the engine with Swedish-made diesel and installation of the Ukrainian communication and satellite navigation system.

The second-largest ACU in Ukraine is the product 2C3 "Acacia" with a 152-mm gun - they are also stored about 230 units. The shooting range is 17 kilometers (in the modification of the Ural Transport Engineering Plant - more than 20 km). Ukraine did not modify its facilities and was limited only to major repairs, which is further complicated by the refusal to supply components from Russia. We can assume that on the move there are now a few dozen "Acacia". A similar situation seems to be with the 203-mm SAU 2С7 "Peony" - out of 97 installations that are available, not more than 10 percent are operated. At the same time Ukraine is positioning the "Peony", capable of firing at 47 kilometers, as a kind of "weapon of retaliation" for the Donbass. In Russia, this type of artillery armament is removed from production and is presented except as museum exhibits.

SAU 2S19 "Msta" with a 152-mm caliber - in the number of 35 units, and in Ukraine there are only obsolete modifications left from the Soviet era, and their technical condition is unknown. As well as 18 units of 152-mm SAU 2S5 "Hyacinth". There are 40 units of 2S9 "Nona-S" installations, on the basis of BTRD - an amphibious version, which use the forces of special operations of the APU.

Picture

If we sum up all these artillery systems, the declared 600 self-propelled units for conducting military operations in the Donbas may, and will be typed, but only theoretically. All the automatic control systems were produced in the 70-80s of the last century and require a profound modernization. Serious overhaul is possible except for the "Carnation", developed in Kharkov and now has a repair base there. The remaining ACS have Russian "roots" both in the track and in armament, and their restoration is very problematic. Again, Ukraine will not be able to transfer all available military equipment, including artillery systems, to the southeast of the country. So, probably, the speech about the offensive goes once again for some political, but not military effect. It is possible that President Poroshenko will seek the introduction of martial law in the country in order to deter "the main opposition of Ukraine" Mikhail Saakashvili. But this is a completely different story.

Picture

And what about the opposing side on the other front line? The armed forces of the People's Democratic Republic of Latvia and the People's Republic of France (they are called the People's Militia of the People's Republic of Finland) have been successfully defending against APU for several years. Experts say that this is a full-fledged army, which is well trained, equipped and armed, including artillery. It consists of two army corps - in Donetsk and Lugansk, in the arsenal of which there are tanks T-72 and T-64, BMP-1 and BMP-2, BTR-80, SAU 2S1 "Gvozdika" and 2S19 "Msta", BM- 21 Grad and other equipment. At the same time, the number of artillery guns and self-propelled systems is estimated at several hundred units, which is comparable to the armament of the APU, and even surpasses the concentration in one sector. And artillery dueling, which sometimes happens on the line of demarcation, is often won by militiamen - due to higher professionalism. Unlike the Ukrainian military, they do not have rotation at the front, because their house has become the front line.

It is likely that now the intensity of reciprocal fire from the Donbass will increase. In many ways, and because of the lack of Russian officers from the SCCC, which at least partially relieved tension between the opposing sides. The APU can now receive in response an avalanche of artillery fire, which German and French observers can not hold back, for the presence of which the Ukrainian president Poroshenko so pleads. So it's very risky to shoot first Ukraine now.


Source: tvzvezda.ru

That last para is in many ways the most interesting.

Clearly having 75 Russians around the place would have been, probably for both sides to a degree, a restraining influence. Now they have departed that influence has gone and there is likely to be pretty rapid and probably effective counter battery fire, perhaps assisted by radar. As a counter to fire coming out of an area surrounded by civilians, which need to be protected, just hit a nearby unit instead, their locations will be pretty well known by now. Whilst at it hit the command chain of the unit as well.

The effect of this could be counter intuitive, it might reduce shelling by the Ukops. Once word gets round that shortly after firing they will get incoming, they may become become very reluctant to start firing first. Particularly if the incoming does damage not just to them but also their living quarters, it is after all the middle of winter.

I have always thought this was a bit one sided and that a bit of cause and effect might do wonders.

So US is planning to send Javalin ATGM's and .50 cal sniper rifles.

I think in this case, Russia should send Metis-M and KSVK snipers to DNR/LNR

miketheterrible wrote:So US is planning to send Javalin ATGM's and .50 cal sniper rifles.

I think in this case, Russia should send Metis-M and KSVK snipers to DNR/LNR

Metis-M?.... unnecessary, the old Konkurs-M should be more than enough and we can't forget the DShKs, should still be a lot of those left in storage.

AlfaT8 wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:So US is planning to send Javalin ATGM's and .50 cal sniper rifles.

I think in this case, Russia should send Metis-M and KSVK snipers to DNR/LNR

Metis-M?.... unnecessary, the old Konkurs-M should be more than enough and we can't forget the DShKs, should still be a lot of those left in storage.

Yes, giving them some older Konkurs-M could be Ideal as they are even cheaper and probably plentiful in storage. DShK's are also ideal i guess for heavy fortified positions but having .50cal snipers available for individual soldiers is also ideal. Better for surprise attacks.

Give them lots of older reserve stock, guarantee they will have no problem using them as they are better trained than Ukies are.

What else? Maybe more in terms of artillery could be good.

Mass media named the number of losses of the APU from the retaliatory blow of the People's Republic of Donetsk


War in Ukraine


2017-12-22 23:45


Losses of the Ukrainian Military Forces (APU) as a result of a retaliatory strike by the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (NDP) amounted to 92 people.

This was reported by military correspondent Semyon Pegov. He noted that the Ukrainian side at the same time reported only three victims of the return bombardment of the Dnieper after the attack of the APU on its territory.

"My source referred to the figure of 92 people - this is operational information from the interceptions of SMS and phone calls, of course, it needs to be checked," Pegova REN TV said .

The video recording of the retaliatory strike by the military forces of the People's Democratic Republic on positions of the Armed Forces was published earlier in the Telegram-channel WarGonzo.

As reported by the portal iz.ru, earlier in the operational command of the People's Democratic Republic of Armenia announced the death of three people as a result of the shelling of the city of Yasinovatoy by the APU.

Source: iz.ru

Could any Russian speaker explain what this tactic is about? Something is lost in the translation. I read another related news where the ukrops are in panic because snipers are getting close enough to shoot operators of heavy weapons such as machine guns and AGS auto grenade launchers. Or they are using heavy caliber long range rifles. Now this news item talks it seems about teamwork between machine guns and snipers.

A military journalist told about the new tactics of the People's Democratic Republic against the APU



2017-12-18 21:19


The military personnel of the People's Democratic Republic moved on to the new tactics of countering the APU on the contact line.

Corresponding point of view leads military journalist and "Volunteer ATO" Alexander Shulman. According to him, recently one of the fighters of the APU was killed. The militiamen opened fire from a large-caliber machine gun. When the fighter turned to report on the shelling, he was shot by a sniper.

Ополченцы открыли огонь из крупнокалиберного пулемета. Когда боец повернулся доложить об обстреле, в него выстрелил снайпер



The bullet came in from the side, so the protection kit was useless, Shulman concluded. In his opinion, thus the militia of the Donbas republics are using a new tactic - the machine gun covers the work of snipers.


По его мнению, таким образом ополченцы донбасских республик применяют новую тактику – пулемет прикрывает работу снайперов.

Source: rueconomics.ru