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slasher
GarryB
miketheterrible
JohninMK
Austin
PapaDragon
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Hole
Viktor
owais.usmani
nomadski
George1
kvs
magnumcromagnon
KoTeMoRe
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20 posters

    World oil prices and OPEC

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:45 am

    Uh no, Rosneft prices are $3 per bbl. The taxation would be roughly about $5.  Ural prices were about $20 for the month. Russia also operates two other oil indices. Sokol and ESPO. They trade at higher values as well
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:17 am

    The 'agreed' cut of 10mbpd, which may actually only be 7mbpd in the short term, is nowhere near enough. World demand is dropping around 25-30mbpd. There is going to be blood on the floor as this plays out, especially Saudi and Iraq.

    US shale is a dead duck now.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:54 pm

    So is Canadian tar sands too. Price too low so companies are high tailing out.

    Guess that's what we get for privatizing our oil reserves and Petro Canada.
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:38 pm

    Well, the region in Canada received a "nice" terraforming. From green trees to brown sinkholes full of toxic waste.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:08 pm

    Hole wrote:Well, the region in Canada received a "nice" terraforming. From green trees to brown sinkholes full of toxic waste.

    According to tar sands industry propaganda they clean up after their mess. lol1
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    owais.usmani


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    Post  owais.usmani Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:38 pm

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Qatar-And-Russia-Fight-For-LNG-Supremacy-As-Prices-Fall-To-Historic-Lows.html

    Qatar And Russia Fight For LNG Supremacy As Prices Fall To Historic Lows

    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:40 pm

    World oil prices and OPEC - Page 3 EWEVDRUXkAQ3Bpi?format=jpg&name=large

    World oil prices and OPEC - Page 3 EWECwrpXkAAKbqs?format=jpg&name=small

    World oil prices and OPEC - Page 3 EWERoQVXsAQnCQK?format=jpg&name=small
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    calripson


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    World oil prices and OPEC - Page 3 Empty May WTI Crude Futures

    Post  calripson Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:48 pm

    Closed at -$36.92/barrel. No storage and forced delivery. No risk models incorporate this scenario. Margins wiped out today and many clearing firms might have capital issues. Imagine a small industrial producer that hedges energy cost by buying oil futures.

    Oil producing states are Red states (Trump supporting) like Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska, Dakotas. regionally very important for their economies.
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    owais.usmani


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    Post  owais.usmani Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:52 pm

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

    Saudi Arabia And Russia Fight Bitter Market Share Battle As Oil Prices Collapse


    The Chinese word ‘crisis’ consists of the characters for ‘danger’ and ‘opportunity’. The unprecedented situation in global energy markets has provided traditional producers with an opportunity to displace incumbents in primarily the U.S. The price war Saudi Arabia started after Russia refused to reduce output in early March has decimated budgets of energy-dependent countries and oil companies. Riyadh and Moscow are playing with fire.

    The world's no. 2 and 3 producers of oil are devastating America's energy industry where prices went negative a week ago for the first time. Just before OPEC+ agreed on a historical deal, U.S. senators were threatening to remove American troops from Saudi Arabia if Riyadh didn’t adhere to plans to reduce production.

    Despite the political risks, Aramco has sent dozens of ships with 40 million barrels of oil to its refineries in the U.S. Furious lawmakers are calling it an economic ‘Pearl Harbor’. It is a bold move for a country heavily dependent on Washington’s security umbrella. According to Christian Malek, the head of EMEA oil and gas equity research at J.P. Morgan, “The Saudis recognize that they have one last big cycle coming, they want to make sure they position for that but equally they have a very important relationship with the U.S. and particularly Trump.”

    Despite the risks, one could argue that Riyadh reached two of its goals after starting the price war. First, it got most producers on board to bear the burden and proportionately reduce production cuts. Second, the accord reaffirmed Riyadh’s leadership of OPEC and energy geopolitics. However, it is to be seen whether the victory is ‘Pyrrhic’.

    COVID-19’s devastating effects on the global economy has reduced demand significantly. China and Europe are the largest net importers of oil in the world, making it extremely important markets for producers. Russia’s refusal to support Saudi Arabia’s proposal to reduce production in early March was partly caused by countries’ perception of risks concerning their essential markets.

    Riyadh’s energy industry was hit much harder by China’s draconian measures when most of the country was closed for business during the first three months of this year. While Chinese buyers are also very important to Russian energy companies and Moscow has vested political interests in Beijing, most of its oil heads west instead of east. Approximately a third of the EU's oil imports originate in Russia.

    Moscow only agreed to reduce production after European markets were hit equally hard by COVID-19. Saudi Aramco, in response, has been targeting buyers aggressively in Russia’s backyard. To lure customers, Aramco is offering discounts and payment deferrals for up to 90 days. While Russian and Saudi negotiators provide cooperative statements in the OPEC+ context, market share is highly contested.

    Riyadh’s aggressive position in the European market is somewhat offset by the structural advantages of Russian exporters. Due to historic reasons, European markets are connected to Moscow's oil fields by pipelines which significantly reduces transportation costs and provides flexibility. While Aramco is bound to the availability of tankers, Russian producers have fewer constraints. Also, European refiners have contracts to import certain levels of oil from Russia.

    Besides Europe, Riyadh is also upping the ante in Asia where Aramco has cut prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, which is the second drastic cut in two months. Concerning East Asia, Russia again has a structural advantage over Saudi Arabia. The ESPO pipeline with a daily capacity of 1.6 million barrels in Eastern Siberia ends in the port city of Kozmino and a second branch leads into China to service clients directly. As in Europe, pipeline imports are cheaper, more flexible, and have shorter transportation times compared to Middle Eastern oil.

    The importance of Chinese buyers in the current climate is only exasperated by Europe's drop in demand. Shipments of Russian oil that are already in European ports are diverted to mainland China. Some 800,000 tons were loaded from Baltic ports in the second half of March and 500,000 tons in early April. China is buying a record 1.6 million tons of Russian oil in April.

    The Saudis are making good on a promise they made: flood the market with oil. It is a risky strategy in a world where storage capacity around the world could be full in a couple of weeks. While the energy industry seems to be heading full speed towards a cliff, exporters in Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer to maintain their market share instead of saving the industry. Only time will tell where this strategy will lead to.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:46 pm

    What a load of windbaggery. Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese oil market has been reduced substantially and Russia has replaced
    the decline.

    I guess oilyprices dot com couldn't find any "loss" by Russia to harp on about.

    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:22 pm

    kvs wrote:What a load of windbaggery.   Saudi Arabia's share of the Chinese oil market has been reduced substantially and Russia has replaced
    the decline.  

    I guess oilyprices dot com couldn't find any "loss" by Russia to harp on about.


    The lesson I learned over the past 10 years: Never base any information on Russia from a Western based source/media.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:09 am

    It seems that when the big powerful actors are Russia and Saudi Arabia then they need to worry about the needs and concerns of the smaller actors like US Shale etc et.... funny because western media normally rejoices when big western firms get bigger by buying or economically crushing foreign competition...
    Big_Gazza
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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:59 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

    Most of the time I only go to Oilprice.com to read what Mamdouh Salameh has to say in the comments section.

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    owais.usmani


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    World oil prices and OPEC - Page 3 Empty global oil prices

    Post  owais.usmani Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:08 pm

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    owais.usmani wrote:https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

    Most of the time I only go to Oilprice.com to read what Mamdouh Salameh has to say in the comments section.

    Same here. He roasts them like no other Very Happy
    George1
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    Post  George1 Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:37 pm

    Biden decided to bring to the market some of the oil from the US strategic reserve

    Yesterday, 18: 41

    US President Joe Biden decided to bring some of the oil from the strategic reserve to the market. The volume of the withdrawn raw materials will be 50 million barrels.

    This was reported by the press service of the White House.

    In this way, the US administration wants to narrow the gap between supply and demand and reduce the cost of fuel in the US domestic market.

    It is noteworthy that Washington is not taking this step on its own, but having previously enlisted the support of other world's largest oil consumers. We are talking about China, Japan, South Korea, India and Britain. These countries are also ready to follow the example of the United States and withdraw some of the raw materials from their reserves to the external market.

    The American publication Bloomberg called such a concerted action an unprecedented attempt by the largest oil consumers to lower oil prices. Now we should expect a response from the producers, which are united in the OPEC + cartel. After all, the price of Brent crude on the London stock exchange began to decline after the announcement of Biden's decision, although the actual flow of raw materials to the market had not yet taken place.

    Bloomberg believes that the American president has challenged the OPEC + oil producers' unification, letting them know that they are not alone in regulating prices. The cartel may not like this and may retaliate. In particular, it can be expected that the decision of the countries-exporters of hydrocarbons to increase the volume of production will be canceled. This could negate all the efforts of Biden and the countries consuming oil to reduce its cost.

    https://en.topwar.ru/189422-bajden-reshil-vyvesti-na-rynok-chast-nefti-iz-strategicheskogo-rezerva-ssha.html
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:00 pm

    That´s the oil production of half a day. pwnd
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:59 pm


    They do know that anything the gets released now will have to be restocked later?

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    George1
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    Post  George1 Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:01 pm

    franco
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    Post  franco Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:43 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    They do know that anything the gets released now will have to be restocked later?

    Shocked Americans Twisted Evil

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:26 am

    But in politician speak, Later = not my problem any more.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:56 am

    The theory is that if the US mixed with India, China Japan and others release their reserves at same time, it will force a drop in oil & gas prices to the point that thy can buy back much more at a cheaper price. It's not really gonna work, but that is their goal.
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    calripson


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    World oil prices and OPEC - Page 3 Empty The Foreign Reserve Analogy

    Post  calripson Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:53 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:The theory is that if the US mixed with India, China Japan and others release their reserves at same time, it will force a drop in oil & gas prices to the point that thy can buy back much more at a cheaper price.  It's not really gonna work, but that is their goal.

    Oil prices didn't decrease on the news. It is a comparable situation to countries suffering currency attacks dipping into their FX reserves. It really doesn't matter how large their reserves are, if the market smells blood in the water, they keep attacking. Every 50 million barrels Biden releases is 50 million barrels less in the reserves which will have to be replaced someday. The next 50 million release will also have no impact on prices. Any announcements after that will be met with increasing prices.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:54 pm

    calripson wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:The theory is that if the US mixed with India, China Japan and others release their reserves at same time, it will force a drop in oil & gas prices to the point that thy can buy back much more at a cheaper price.  It's not really gonna work, but that is their goal.

    Oil prices didn't decrease on the news. It is a comparable situation to countries suffering currency attacks dipping into their FX reserves. It really doesn't matter how large their reserves are, if the market smells blood in the water, they keep attacking. Every 50 million barrels Biden releases is 50 million barrels less in the reserves which will have to be replaced someday. The next 50 million release will also have no impact on prices. Any announcements after that will be met with increasing prices.

    I never said they were competent lol.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Nov 26, 2021 4:09 am

    They are as competent as the EU thinking buying gas with spot prices instead of long term contracts would allow them to buy when it is cheap and use stored gas when it is expensive... except that works best when you have enormous storage capacity and you actually keep that capacity full for when the price climbs...

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