The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

I get the impression people here feel that this sort of deal is a Russian red line. If the coup wasn't a red line; this will not be either - that's certain.

ATLASCUB wrote:I get the impression people here feel that this sort of deal is a Russian red line. If the coup wasn't a red line; this will not be either - that's certain.

The only person who knows what Russia's 'red lines' are is VVP and he hasn't mentioned that subject to me.

Revenge or internal dispute? It follows yesterday's 'car accident' when Boris Panchenko, one of the apparent initiators of possible Poroshenko's impeachment, was killed.

Christopher Miller‏ ChristopherJM 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @ChristopherJM

Ukraine Defense Ministry confirms man killed in car explosion as Maxim Shapoval, one of its military intel officials http://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2017/06/27/vnaslidok-vibuhu-avtomobilya-u-kievi-zaginuv-vijskovosluzhbovecz-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini/ …


Christian Borys‏ItsBorys 2h2 hours ago

Christian Borys Retweeted Christian Borys

Various reports now saying the deceased was head of Special Operations for Ukraine's Ministry of Defence. This is getting more intriguing.

ATLASCUB wrote:https://www.rt.com/news/394057-ukraine-us-arms-poroshenko/

Ukraine ‘almost reached’ arms supplies agreement with US – Poroshenko

Seems the deal is pretty much at this point conditional on Syria developments... specially if Russia lets the Turks loose on the Kurds.

Wondering how significant of a boost this could be to Ukrops.... I mean majority of the hardware can be countered by Russia on the other end but still...

==================================

.........

Those of us who followed this issue since beginning know that it's all just hogwash and empty talk in order to keep Kiev obedient.

Any arms shipment from USA to the Ukraine would mean 10 times larger arms shipments of 10 times more powerful stuff to the rebels.

When Uncle Sam was sending used helmets Russia was sending T-72s in response.

Ukraine better hope USA doesn't send them anything because they are royally screwed in that case.

The US does not give advanced weapons to others, except in very few cases (Israel, UK, and little more).

The US loves to put some weapons in the territory of others, but inside own bases under own control with own soldiers.

The US is not ready to assume to send own soldiers to Ukraine. If it would be ready, would be doing it.

The US is happy with some goals:
- To waste the Ukranian weapons arsenals in a war vs Russia and not vs NATO.
- To have access to the economic predation of Ukraine to favore the interests of the US elites.

But also failed in other goals:
- In the wasting process of the Ukranian arsenals, they did almost zero damage to the Russian arsenals.
- The US failed in the bid to weaken Russia with the sanctions. With the accession of Crimea Russia even gets reinforced.
- The US failed in Crimea.
- The US failed in the Donbass.
- Europe will not pay the restoration of Ukraine like the US wanted.

The war in Ukraine made an improvement for booth big powers, the alone loser, Ukraine.

To move the current balance of forces would have a very important cost in money for the US. To break the balance in favor of the US and Ukraine would require an effort close to WWIII. Everyone knows it.

eehnie wrote:
The US does not give advanced weapons to others, except in very few cases (Israel, UK, and little more).

The US loves to put some weapons in the territory of others, but inside own bases under own control with own soldiers.

The US is not ready to assume to send own soldiers to Ukraine. If it would be ready, would be doing it.

The US is happy with some goals:
- To waste the Ukranian weapons arsenals in a war vs Russia and not vs NATO.
- To have access to the economic predation of Ukraine to favore the interests of the US elites.

But also failed in other goals:
- In the wasting process of the Ukranian arsenals, they did almost zero damage to the Russian arsenals.
- The US failed in the bid to weaken Russia with the sanctions. With the accession of Crimea Russia even gets reinforced.
- The US failed in Crimea.
- The US failed in the Donbass.
- Europe will not pay the restoration of Ukraine like the US wanted.

The war in Ukraine made an improvement for booth big powers, the alone loser, Ukraine.

To move the current balance of forces would have a very important cost in money for the US. To break the balance in favor of the US and Ukraine would require an effort close to WWIII. Everyone knows it.

I am sure that you will correct me if I'm wrong, not unknown I might add, but I thought that all the discussions on the US supplying Ukraine with weapons has been with reference to lethal weapons. I don't recall anyone in the US referring to advanced weapons, which are not necessarily the same thing.

Also it is probably a bit early to declare that the US has failed in Ukraine. It is becoming closer to NATO, is an interesting training ground and the US probably believes that Russia is operating with one hand behind its back in Syria due to Ukraine and vica versa

I think you underplay the economic impact especially in some the rather key financial arenas.

- Ukraine is now nicely in debt to the IMF and other Western creditors. This is money that has cost the West nothing, they just 'printed' it, yet they now have a lien over real Ukrainian assets.

- the other assets that they would really like to get hold of like farmland, oil etc are now worth a fraction of what they were so, once Ukraine is further softened up and the law is changed, purchasers will appear at the 10c on the $ bargain pricing.

- Ukraine is very rapidly being turned into an agricultural country, removing an industrial competitor.

- very large numbers of Ukrainians have fled west and are now available at low cost, semi slave, labour rates in the EU.

I recon the jury is out on this.

JohninMK wrote:Revenge or internal dispute? It follows yesterday's 'car accident'  when Boris Panchenko, one of the apparent initiators of possible Poroshenko's impeachment, was killed.

Christopher Miller‏ ChristopherJM 2h2 hours ago
Replying to @ChristopherJM

Ukraine Defense Ministry confirms man killed in car explosion as Maxim Shapoval, one of its military intel officials http://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2017/06/27/vnaslidok-vibuhu-avtomobilya-u-kievi-zaginuv-vijskovosluzhbovecz-ministerstva-oboroni-ukraini/ …


Christian Borys‏ItsBorys 2h2 hours ago

Christian Borys Retweeted Christian Borys

Various reports now saying the deceased was head of Special Operations for Ukraine's Ministry of Defence. This is getting more intriguing.

Read this from other sources, and they indicate that it was a car bomb. If this is true, I'm sure that they will say that this attack was plotted by FSB.

JohninMK wrote:

eehnie wrote:
The US does not give advanced weapons to others, except in very few cases (Israel, UK, and little more).

The US loves to put some weapons in the territory of others, but inside own bases under own control with own soldiers.

The US is not ready to assume to send own soldiers to Ukraine. If it would be ready, would be doing it.

The US is happy with some goals:
- To waste the Ukranian weapons arsenals in a war vs Russia and not vs NATO.
- To have access to the economic predation of Ukraine to favore the interests of the US elites.

But also failed in other goals:
- In the wasting process of the Ukranian arsenals, they did almost zero damage to the Russian arsenals.
- The US failed in the bid to weaken Russia with the sanctions. With the accession of Crimea Russia even gets reinforced.
- The US failed in Crimea.
- The US failed in the Donbass.
- Europe will not pay the restoration of Ukraine like the US wanted.

The war in Ukraine made an improvement for booth big powers, the alone loser, Ukraine.

To move the current balance of forces would have a very important cost in money for the US. To break the balance in favor of the US and Ukraine would require an effort close to WWIII. Everyone knows it.

I am sure that you will correct me if I'm wrong, not unknown I might add, but I thought that all the discussions on the US supplying Ukraine with weapons has been with reference to lethal weapons. I don't recall anyone in the US referring to advanced weapons, which are not necessarily the same thing.

Also it is probably a bit early to declare that the US has failed in Ukraine. It is becoming closer to NATO, is an interesting training ground and the US probably believes that Russia is operating with one hand behind its back in Syria due to Ukraine and vica versa

I think you underplay the economic impact especially in some the rather key financial arenas.

- Ukraine is now nicely in debt to the IMF and other Western creditors. This is money that has cost the West nothing, they just 'printed' it, yet they now have a lien over real Ukrainian assets.

- the other assets that they would really like to get hold of like farmland, oil etc are now worth a fraction of what they were so, once Ukraine is further softened up and the law is changed, purchasers will appear at the 10c on the $ bargain pricing.

- Ukraine is very rapidly being turned into an agricultural country, removing an industrial competitor.

- very large numbers of Ukrainians have fled west and are now available at low cost, semi slave, labour rates in the EU.

I recon the jury is out on this.

The Jury is not out yet..... The Jury has already concluded that the Ukraine coup is a massive success for the U.S. It's a big fat blow on Russia's doorstep, a brother country. It cost the U.S practically nothing to flip Ukraine, cause chaos and control the government in Kiev. People are truly deluded to think otherwise. Only in alternate realities has the U.S lost "something"...

JohninMK wrote:

eehnie wrote:
The US does not give advanced weapons to others, except in very few cases (Israel, UK, and little more).

The US loves to put some weapons in the territory of others, but inside own bases under own control with own soldiers.

The US is not ready to assume to send own soldiers to Ukraine. If it would be ready, would be doing it.

The US is happy with some goals:
- To waste the Ukranian weapons arsenals in a war vs Russia and not vs NATO.
- To have access to the economic predation of Ukraine to favore the interests of the US elites.

But also failed in other goals:
- In the wasting process of the Ukranian arsenals, they did almost zero damage to the Russian arsenals.
- The US failed in the bid to weaken Russia with the sanctions. With the accession of Crimea Russia even gets reinforced.
- The US failed in Crimea.
- The US failed in the Donbass.
- Europe will not pay the restoration of Ukraine like the US wanted.

The war in Ukraine made an improvement for booth big powers, the alone loser, Ukraine.

To move the current balance of forces would have a very important cost in money for the US. To break the balance in favor of the US and Ukraine would require an effort close to WWIII. Everyone knows it.

I am sure that you will correct me if I'm wrong, not unknown I might add, but I thought that all the discussions on the US supplying Ukraine with weapons has been with reference to lethal weapons. I don't recall anyone in the US referring to advanced weapons, which are not necessarily the same thing.

Also it is probably a bit early to declare that the US has failed in Ukraine. It is becoming closer to NATO, is an interesting training ground and the US probably believes that Russia is operating with one hand behind its back in Syria due to Ukraine and vica versa

I think you underplay the economic impact especially in some the rather key financial arenas.

- Ukraine is now nicely in debt to the IMF and other Western creditors. This is money that has cost the West nothing, they just 'printed' it, yet they now have a lien over real Ukrainian assets.

- the other assets that they would really like to get hold of like farmland, oil etc are now worth a fraction of what they were so, once Ukraine is further softened up and the law is changed, purchasers will appear at the 10c on the $ bargain pricing.

- Ukraine is very rapidly being turned into an agricultural country, removing an industrial competitor.

- very large numbers of Ukrainians have fled west and are now available at low cost, semi slave, labour rates in the EU.

I recon the jury is out on this.

In terms of PVI Russia had some negative quarters, but in the other side added the entire PVI of Crimea to its numbers. The overall effect of the sanctions has been low, and in the long term the balance is positive to Russia.

In the refered to the private investors, their business is and will be safe, warranted by the US. This private investors are part of the country predators the US is doing this business for. Others want to buy the Ukranian industry and other properties at low cost. They have also their business warranted by the US. But it has some effect in the budgests of the Western countries. And Europe agrees not with the model (basically because almost all the benefits go to US private investors, and not European)

Some cost tend to assure the benefits of the private investors, and the likely loses of the IMF also will be assumed almost entirely by the public accounts of the Western countries. The economic balance for them will have some negative point too. The change of regime in Ukraine is not cheap, and to mantain it will be also expensive.

Finally, Europe needs not and appreciates not the labour force of Ukraine. This is not a positive factor really, for Europe is more in the negative side.

It would seem that there was an incident on the 24th where a Ukrainian reconnaissance/sabotage group was inserted into LPR territory attacked an isolated group of LPR fighters where they killed two and captured four, two of whom are claimed to be Russians. The Russians are saying that they were not Russian soldiers.

This could be part of the reason for the deaths over the past couple of days of a couple of Ukrainian Colonels in car bombs.

There is a press conference at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3j9pyFQeOs but it is in Russian.

This is the GP post translated from Russian by Yandex. Pretty nasty torture for information then kill if true but then this fight is probably a lot nastier than we are told, on both sides.

Graham Phillips
today at 1:45 pm

Just, LC:

Military NM LC in captivity by the Ukrainian punitive

Sabotage group from the composition of the special operations Forces (SSO), Mat 24 Jun infiltrated LC in the area of highway T-1303 Lugansk-Lisichansk, known as the "Bahmutka" and attacked a group of soldiers of one of the units of the rear services of the national police. As a result of incident two military men of the militia were killed, four were captured by the Kyiv security forces.
The investigation with the involvement of forensic experts and Prosecutors revealed some details of the capture of soldiers of the people's Militia of the Luhansk national Republic:
- June 26 in the Stakhanov branch of the forensic medical examination was carried out the research bodies of the two dead soldiers. In the study of the body of one of the dead soldiers NM LC established the following injuries: multiple bruises and abrasions of the head, trunk and limbs, fractures of the facial skeleton, fracture of the left shoulder, three stab wounds to the chest, twelve gunshot wounds of torso and extremities, said medical examiner Dmitriy Malovichko.
At survey of a body of the second victim the medical examiners also found a number of injuries: bodily injuries in the form of multiple bruises and abrasions of the head of the trunk and extremities, broken ribs on both sides, gunshot, gunshot wound of the abdomen and thorax, and firearms gunshot wounds in the head.
All injuries are antemortem, people experienced suffering and torture while causing them injuries, - said Malovichko.
Doctor, judicial medical expert Denis Mosin said that captured by the Ukrainian punitive soldiers LC were brutally murdered.
The chief of the investigation division of the Department of supervision of observance of laws in the military sphere of the Prosecutor General LNR, counselor of justice Leonid Tkachenko stressed that the capture of the soldiers in captivity they had been certain physical methods of influence, as evidenced by the setting of the scene and numerous traces of blood on clothing.
- After delivery to Severodonetsk soldiers they had been and torture in order to obtain certain kinds of information, which interests the Ukrainian side, - concluded Leonid Tkachenko.
According to the representative of the Prosecutor General, such actions clearly indicate that the Ukrainian side does not comply with international law, in particular in the field of human rights. Also, the Ukrainian side grossly violated the rules of war established by International law.
The above facts will be investigated in the framework of a criminal investigation, which was initiated on the fact of application of International treaties prohibited means and methods of warfare by members of the Armed forces of Ukraine, volunteer battalions and hired gunmen who are on the side of Ukraine, the armed aggression against the civilian population the people of the Republic and genocide against the people of the Luhansk people's Republic.

This incident is true including the torture of the 4 prisoners. Such incidents have been occurring since the very first days of resistance in Donbas.

All war is nasty and brutal but to the best of my knowledge no torture has ever been reliably reported involving NAF. In early spring when my wife visited those who are near and dear to us she specifically asked the two serving about an orc reported incident of torture involving NAF and prisoners. One very clearly stated that if she heard of such a thing she would have to stand in line to shoot the perpetrator. The other one said that beyond the often rough pounce of capture the most brutal incident he's ever heard of was when Givy fed the orc flag patch to a group of his prisoners and then hit the orc colonel with his pistol.

https://www.rt.com/news/394636-donetsk-blast-library-university/

The orcs and their handlers just ain't gonna stop.

First on Thursday

OSCE SMM Ukraine‏ @OSCE_SMM

Hug: Yesterday within 3 hours SMM monitors in Yasynuvata observed 500 explosions & number of explosions in Popasna was impossible to count

Then

Friday, June 30, 2017 - 17:23

The AFU command held internal investigation concerning the fact that Alexander Hug, Principal Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine had been not allowed to enter the area of Pesky Locality, the DPR People's Militia Operational Command, Vice-Commander Eduard Basurin states.

“The 'ATO' command held internal investigation regarding the fact that the commander of the 34th separate battalion of the 57th separate brigade, Major Shpanko S.V. had not allowed Alexander Hug, Principal Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine to enter the area of the locality of Pesky.

As it was discovered during the investigation, the commander of the 34th battalion had had no time to redeploy a tank column consisting of 28 units which had been en route of the OSCE representatives due to this Alexander Hug wasn't allowed to enter,” said Eduard Basurin.

https://zn.ua/UKRAINE/minoborony-ocenivaet-situaciyu-s-obespecheniem-vs-boepripasami-dlya-ryada-vidov-oruzhiya-kak-kriticheskuyu-253074_.html

Ukrainian army treport of critical shortage of ammunition of all types, from small arms to artillery. They alsom said, that Novorussia not only have a factory to produce small arms ammunition in Lugansk, but also all needed facilities to produce artillery, MLRS and aviation ammunition.

medo wrote:https://zn.ua/UKRAINE/minoborony-ocenivaet-situaciyu-s-obespecheniem-vs-boepripasami-dlya-ryada-vidov-oruzhiya-kak-kriticheskuyu-253074_.html

Ukrainian army treport of critical shortage of ammunition of all types, from small arms to artillery. They alsom said, that Novorussia not only have a factory to produce small arms ammunition in Lugansk, but also all needed facilities to produce artillery, MLRS and aviation ammunition.

Bit more on it from Doni. Maybe part of negotiating position with US. No ammo stock overhang so may as well give us 'new' NATO spec artillery.

Regardless of this, the 'shortage' does not seem to have much effect on the rate and type of fire at the front line in Donbas.

Sunday, July 2, 2017 - 10:07

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry evaluates the situation with providing the Ukrainian forces with certain kinds of ammunition as critical. The information appeared in the Ukrainian Media and reportedly was based on the document №220/3650, which the Defence Minister, Stephan Poltorak, transferred to the National Security Service’s secretary, Alexander Turchinov in May 2017.

According to the information covered, ammunition comprised a great part of the Kiev’s international export. Ukraine was selling millions of patrons and shells to Malaysia, India and African countries.

“It should be underlined that presently the Defence Ministry took its head out of the clouds and regards providing the Ukrainian army with ammunition of 7,6 mm calibre for sniper rifle, patrons of 12, 7 calibre for large-calibre automatic gun of Degtyarev-Shpagin and NSVT, the application of large calibres from 23 to 152 mm designed for the artillery systems with the grenade launchers of various calibres as inappropriate and critical ,” underlined the source.

It was also pointed out that Ukraine lost the opportunity of production explosives, gunpowder, collets, shells and detonating fuzes. After the Donbass hostilities begun, the Donetsk state-owned chemical production plant and Chemical state-owned association named after G. Petrovskogo remained in the DPR territory. As a result, Ukraine has no opportunity to product ammunition of medium and large artillery calibres, air bombs warheads, gunpowder for the highly precise missiles and shells for MRLS.

medo wrote:https://zn.ua/UKRAINE/minoborony-ocenivaet-situaciyu-s-obespecheniem-vs-boepripasami-dlya-ryada-vidov-oruzhiya-kak-kriticheskuyu-253074_.html

Ukrainian army treport of critical shortage of ammunition of all types, from small arms to artillery. They alsom said, that Novorussia not only have a factory to produce small arms ammunition in Lugansk, but also all needed facilities to produce artillery, MLRS and aviation ammunition.

Unfortunately there is a lot of that old ammo still in Eastern Europe.

Here is an interesting report from rusvesna. Grain or ten of salt but the filtration camps were to be built and some were built. Personally I think it's bovine scatology and tied in to President Trump and supposedly more damaging to him through Manafort, that little foible is what makes the bovine scatology meter peg in the 'great steaming load' zone. Link and breathless info sent by a friend, I don't normally look at that page.

http://rusvesna.su/news/1498759913

So, partially self inflicted cyber attack then.

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — The small Ukrainian tax software company that is accused of being the patient zero of a damaging global cyberepidemic is under investigation and will face charges, the head of Ukraine’s CyberPolice suggested Monday.

Col. Serhiy Demydiuk, the head of Ukraine’s national Cyberpolice unit, said in an interview with The Associated Press that Kiev-based M.E. Doc’s employees had blown off repeated warnings about the security of their information technology infrastructure.

“They knew about it,” he told the AP at his office. “They were told many times by various anti-virus firms. ... For this neglect, the people in this case will face criminal responsibility.”

Demydiuk and other officials say last week’s unusually disruptive cyberattack was mainly spread through a malicious update to M.E. Doc’s eponymous tax software program, which is widely used by accountants and businesses across Ukraine.

The malicious update, likely planted on M.E. Doc’s update server by a hacker, was then disseminated across the country before exploding into an epidemic of data-scrambling software that Ukrainian and several other multinational firms are still recovering from.

M.E. Doc initially denied playing any such role in the malicious software’s spread but later deleted the statement from Facebook. The company, which says it’s cooperating with authorities, has not returned messages seeking comment.

Meanwhile, several companies hit by last week’s cyberattack say they were edging closer to normalcy.

Law firm DLA Piper said late Sunday that it has restored its email service and was working to bring its other networks back online. Danish shipper A.P. Moller-Maersk said “our operations are now running close to normal again.” Russian companies were reportedly affected as well; Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft said Monday it had taken the company 6 days to fully repair its computer systems after they were badly hit in the cyberattack.

Ukrainian authorities have blamed Russia for masterminding the outbreak, although several independent experts say it’s too early, based on what’s publicly known, to come to any firm conclusions. Ukraine has repeatedly come under fire from high-powered cyberattacks tied to Moscow.

https://apnews.com/8b02768224de485eb4e7b33ae55b02f2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0IsNslQm2A

my relative has visited our family in the Northern Crimea, here's the costs of vegetables in the local market. Costs are in Russian rubles (1 Euro = ~70 Rubles)

maybe it will be of interest to someone

Bolt wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0IsNslQm2A

my relative has visited our family in the Northern Crimea, here's the costs of vegetables in the local market. Costs are in Russian rubles (1 Euro = ~70 Rubles)

maybe it will be of interest to someone

some not bad but some expensive. Biggest of the costs will subside once the bridge is built so transportation becomes cheap. Biggest issue being faced now.

From the Dutch today

Statement by the minister of Foreign Affairs on MH17, 5 July 2017

News item | 05-07-2017 | 09:26

It’s been nearly three years since Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was downed in eastern Ukraine. Two hundred and ninety-eight innocent people from 17 countries lost their lives that day. Since then, this terrible incident has had the full attention of the Netherlands, the other grieving nations and the rest of the international community. One day after the tragic event, the UN Security Council called for a thorough investigation and appropriate accountability.

At that time, the Dutch government set itself three priorities: the repatriation and identification of the victims, a technical investigation into the circumstances of the crash, and the prosecution and trial of those responsible. As Minister of Foreign Affairs, I attach great importance to close international cooperation in these areas. The countries that comprise the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) – Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Ukraine – joined forces to ensure that justice will prevail in this complicated case.

This cooperation is vital, given the complexity of this case. Flight MH17 was downed in a conflict zone which was the scene of heavy fighting and which is still difficult to access. We’re still seeing a great deal of disinformation and attempts to discredit the investigation. Nevertheless, major results have been achieved (such as the report of the investigation by the Dutch Safety Board and the JIT’s presentation of findings in September 2016). What’s more, the ongoing criminal investigation enjoys virtually unanimous support from the international community. MH17 has shown how a shared tragedy can lead to close international cooperation and a determination to see that justice is done.

The JIT countries have now decided that the suspects should be prosecuted in the Netherlands, a process that will be rooted in ongoing international cooperation and support. This means that the team’s cooperation will continue into the prosecution phase. Thanks to the MH17-treaty with Ukraine it will be possible for the prosecution to cover all the victims. This is important, given that the victims came from 17 different countries on five continents.

In this way the JIT countries are jointly heeding the Security Council’s call to hold those responsible for this incident to account. We have every confidence that we can continue to count on broad international support. And I will continue to do my utmost to ensure that this remains the case.

So, the Dutch are going to give trial to the Orc Nazis? Sure they will, about the time the Dark Lord is driving a Kenworth with a 3 meter Meyers blade on it and plowing snow in his 'kingdom'.

Ukraine to now deny its people cheap medication because it comes from Russian companies.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/07/ukraine-to-suspend-sales-of-russian.html

VARGR198 wrote:Ukraine to now deny its people cheap medication because it comes from Russian companies.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/07/ukraine-to-suspend-sales-of-russian.html

What's the problem?

It is people's God given right to put up with that crap if they choose to do so.

They were only able to catch Tillerson in a corridor on the way out, either that or they've already sold off the smart furniture.

About all he said was (loosely summerised) "its Russia's fault and up to them to solve Minsk. Bye"