The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

Correction, just gone up on Doni. Looks like they are trying to play down the significance.

Thursday, March 23, 2017 - 13:02

The fire in a military warehouse in the Balakleyevsky district of the Kharkov region occurred on March 23 at about 4:00 Moscow time. As Anatoly Matios, the chief military prosecutor of Ukraine, later reported, the fire and the subsequent detonation of ammunition were recorded at several sites for the storage of rocket and artillery weapons (tank and artillery shells of 125 mm and 152 mm caliber). According to him, a seven kilometer security zone was created around the ammunition depot. The causes of the incident are being clarified.

The explosion in the ammunition depot in the Kharkov region could have occurred due to the undermining or actions of an unmanned vehicle. This was stated at a briefing by Defense Minister of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak.

   "According to the preliminary version, this was a sabotage, different ways of carrying out this diversion from the variant of dropping the unmanned aircraft to undermining are being considered," he said.

Poltorak also noted that, according to preliminary information, there were no victims, and no significant damage to the defense capability of Ukraine has been inflicted.

https://dninews.com/article/ukraines-biggest-ammunition-depot-detonates

It is clear all this ammunition was to be wasted entirely in the war of Donbass.

Until now the US pursued a change to NATO armament and ammunition standards of all the countries of Eastern Europe to the West of Russia and Belarus. Obviously in this war Ukraine will have available the entire reserves of Sovietic weapons and ammunitions stored to the West of Russia and Belarus. For the US the current war in Ukraine, between other things, is also a form to accelerate the process that was being done before with US funding in the programs of destruction of "old" ammunitions (and subsequently of weapons).

The US has not hurry for a transition of Ukraine to NATO standards. They prefer the new NATO countries to do it before. NATO standards mean to buy directly to the US the weapons and ammunition. Not other thing. This is why the US is asking to all to increase the defense budget. It is only to impulse their own industry (after killing in recent years the European armament industry). The US prefer, Poland, Czech Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Slovenia, Croatia... to do the transition before than Ukraine. They want all these countries, give to Ukraine their sovietic weapons and ammunition, charging them part of the military costs of the war in the process, and making them to buy new US weapons and ammunition. It is not easy to do an estimation, but today the amounts of Sovietic heavy weapons remaining still to the west of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, would be a little smaller than the total number of Sovietic heavy weapons remaining in Ukraine. The reduction in the last years has been very important in Ukraine, but also to the West of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

This is why the NATO calibers only will appear in Ukraine when the Sovietic caliber ammunitions are finnished to the West of Russia and Belarus. The overall reduction of Sovietic weapons and ammunition to the West of Russia and Belarus opens the door the the US weapon industry. It is not only about the situation in Ukraine, like the gouvernment of Ukraine has been thinking. The US is happy with the process, but not with the rhytm, because the coutries to the West of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, are giving their Sovietic weapons and ammunitions to Ukraine, but they are not buying the US weapons at the rythm expected by the US and are becoming weak. This is the reason for the constant US pressure to the European countries to increase their defence budgets. The US wants European countries have NATO standard (= US produced) weapons, but want not to gift them. The war is the bussiness of the US, not a charity.

All this makes the destruction of this ammunition depot is a major defeat for Ukraine. It makes the end of the sovietic ammunition closer, and with the end of the sovietic ammunition comes the end of their armament. Later? they have not money to buy NATO weapons. Gifts? from?

Even today, 12 hours later and in lovely sunshine, there are still big explosions happening. This is massive destruction. Doni suggest (link at end) that there is (sorry, was ) 140,000 tons of artillery and rocket munitions on the site.



This one is like a fireworks display. Some of it looks like cluster munitions.



Just wait for the action from 2.55 on, spectacular would be an understatement! Mind you it is bettered around 4.20



https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-03232017

Nice little mushroom cloud there!

This is excellent for Novorussia. Ukrops are already low on ammunition and destruction of their arsenal warehouse is a huge blow for them. I think they lost majority of rockets for Tochka, Smerch and Uragan MLRSs and as I know non of East NATO members have them. Ukrops Will now depend on shorter range artillery and here is also a question, how much of their stocks remain. Ukropistan doesn't have ammunition factories, which are now in Novorussia and they also don't have money to import them. This is the most important moment, as Novorussian artillery now get the upper hand against Ukrops.

It was said, that Ukrainian tank ammo is also destroyed here, what mean that in next war Ukrops will be with very short artillery and tank support. Novorussian army doesn't have such problem with amunition and they are more or less equal in artillery and tanks.

JohninMK wrote:Even today, 12 hours later and in lovely sunshine, there are still big explosions happening. This is massive destruction. Doni suggest (link at end) that there is (sorry, was ) 140,000 tons of artillery and rocket munitions on the site.



This one is like a fireworks display. Some of it looks like cluster munitions.



Just wait for the action from 2.55 on, spectacular would be an understatement! Mind you it is bettered around 4.20



https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-03232017

HOLY COW!!

medo wrote:This is excellent for Novorussia. Ukrops are already low on ammunition and destruction of their arsenal warehouse is a huge blow for them. I think they lost majority of rockets for Tochka, Smerch and Uragan MLRSs and as I know non of East NATO members have them. Ukrops Will now depend on shorter range artillery and here is also a question, how much of their stocks remain. Ukropistan doesn't have ammunition factories, which are now in Novorussia and they also don't have money to import them. This is the most important moment, as Novorussian artillery now get the upper hand against Ukrops.

It was said, that Ukrainian tank ammo is also destroyed here, what mean that in next war Ukrops will be with very short artillery and tank support. Novorussian army doesn't have such problem with amunition and they are more or less equal in artillery and tanks.

Lets not get too hasty here.

Ukraine is asking for non-NATO alliance with US. If it passes in the US, then it will give US the right to provide all the military aid to Ukraine. And with all this anti-Russian bashing from the US, I guarantee they will pass it through. They also want NATO to de-mine the area.

On the 6 oclock news tonight here in NZ some nobody Russian politician that "defected" to the Ukraine and was anti Putin was shot. The lead in was that it was dangerous to cross Putin who obviously ordered the murder in person. The story then continued that this munitions fire was also ordered by Putin according to Poroshenko and noone even questioned such a claim.

It seems it is all Putin...

I wont bother watching news on TV any more it is just crap propaganda.

The loss of weapons is very good for all the people of the Ukraine... if the US wants to resupply I am sure the same thing can be repeated except this time with US taxpayer supplied munitions... instead of fires and explosions it will grow food for the poor and help cripples walk again and let the blind see when it goes up... like all NATO weapons and ammo.

Porky has asked for Nato to come in and 'de-mine' the area. He'll do anything to get Nato in.

Politician was a nobody and of course the shooter is dead also. Shari has all on the nobody and the shooter.

auslander wrote:Porky has asked for Nato to come in and 'de-mine' the area. He'll do anything to get Nato in.

Politician was a nobody and of course the shooter is dead also. Shari has all on the nobody and the shooter.

is it true he was serving in the HaHol army in the ATO ??

Shooter, according to Shari, did serve in one of the nazi units, not the orc regular army. When, I don't know.

This sounds to me like a contract hit and the shooter ended up dead, too. Probably a surprise for him.

Godric wrote:

auslander wrote:Porky has asked for Nato to come in and 'de-mine' the area. He'll do anything to get Nato in.

Politician was a nobody and of course the shooter is dead also. Shari has all on the nobody and the shooter.

is it true he was serving in the HaHol army in the ATO ??

And many European countries will do anything to get the NATO out.

JohninMK wrote:Even today, 12 hours later and in lovely sunshine, there are still big explosions happening. This is massive destruction. Doni suggest (link at end) that there is (sorry, was ) 140,000 tons of artillery and rocket munitions on the site.



This one is like a fireworks display. Some of it looks like cluster munitions.



Just wait for the action from 2.55 on, spectacular would be an understatement! Mind you it is bettered around 4.20



https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-03232017

Well...

"Boom goes the dynamite!"

The facility itself (and the ammunition storaged there) in pictures.

Photos from bmpd

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2507134.html

Nameplate of the Storage Base



Loads of 152mm and 122mm ammo storaged outdoors. Can you see the high level of protection and safety concerns?


















Armored firefighting vehicles based on T-55 or T-72 chassis






A few tanks of fuel and some surplus ammo




"Friendly fire"


Ukrainian soldier with a crappy looking Kalashnikov assault rifle



Some engineer equipment (?)




Surplus 122mm(?) ammo


Scrapped(?) Uragan missiles


"Size matters"


Some more surplus 152mm ammo


Those, who keep their watchful eyes on the precious ammo reserves of the "glorious Ukrainian Army".


Plate of the facility


MAZ-543 crane truck




"Fire prevention equipment"


Water tank


Inert training rounds


After seeing this, it is no suprise for me that the facility had caught fire and went up in flames. Storaging live ordnance out in open air isn't that safe, it can even cost lives.

But honestly, it was better that they have been exploded, so they won't be fired on peaceful Novorossiyan civilians later.

On the artillery war and logistics Part II

How much ammunition Ukraine had and how long will last?


I said a consumption of 10,000 tons or artillery ammo for 2016. Same if not higher for 2015, averaging the quiet periods post Minsk 2 and 3, with the winter battles culminating in Debaltsevo pocket. Perhaps double that for 2014.

So there has been a consumption of 50.000 tons in 3 years of war. For artillery shells alone. And my estimates are based only using 20 kilos for each individual shells of 122mm caliber. The heavy artillery shells of 152mm caliber are 60 kilos each. If only 1 in every 5 shells fired is heavy caliber, that would drive up the figure to 75.000 tons.

...

Fortunately digging around I found how much was left by 2013

https://day.kyiv.ua/en/article/economy/nato-and-utilization-ammunition-ukraine

Excerpt:

So there it is there were 300 kilotons of ammo of all kinds at the beginning of the war. Of wich about half are artillery munitions. That leaves 150 Kt, of wich already consumed 100.000 tons. So there are 50K of artillery ammunition remaining. At the present rate, just enough ammo for one year more. Less if there are major battles and rocket consumption is taken into account.

I may have underestimated the amounts of artillery ammunition available. I figured out it was half of the total. Perhaps the tonnage of small arms ammunition, aviation bombs, and other weapons (mines, hand grenades , RPGs... etc) is much lower than that of artillery shells, bombs and rockets.

On the other hand, reports of the amounts of explosives at Balakleya may be grossly exagerated. Storage capacity was around 150 kilotons. Maybe it was not at full capacity. Chervonets says about 90 KT. Let's say it was only a third and the explosion is slightly larger than the largest ammo explosion to date (40K tons)

Ukrop sources say the depot was 30% of the artillery park. That would mean the Ukrops had remaining 150 kilotons (50K x 3) for artillery ammunition. Still three times as much as I expected, wich does not make sense with the other data. If the Ukrainians had so much ammunition they would not be restricting their use.

Conclusions:

- We don't know how much ammo was stored at the depot, and how much will be salvaged.

- Probably it was only a fraction of the nominal capacity of the dump. 15.000 tons sounds about right.

- We also do not know what kind of ammunition was stored there. If it was old WW2 shells and aviation bombs, though it looks spectacular, does not make any difference.

- It does appear that they had indeed 122mm and 152mm rounds stored there, plus tank gun rounds. With their respective gunpowder.

- Unsure if the ukrains are saying the dump contained one third of all ammunition, or just artillery ammo. It's unclear to me if Cassad is reporting that the Ukrainian artillery is down by 1/3 or that 2/3ds of their ammo is blown up.

With a little luck, the Ukrainian army has lost most of its remaining ammunition, though I do not expect them to have concentrated most of their reserves in one place, though Kharkov is convenient for logistics.

I may have overestimated consumption or underestimated existing stocks, but if I did make appreciation errors, how come the Ukrainians are so stingy with their heavy artillery and rocket launchers? :hmmm:

I do not think we will be so fortunate that they lost most of their remaining artillery ammunition and war soon will be over, but certainly the loss will be felt. If previously they had, say, one year of fire remaining, now only 9 months. Ukraine forces are deteriorating gradually until the point they are infantry with machine guns and mortars defending static positions. Perhaps then there's the opportunity for a Novorussian liberation offensive.

Unfortunately, unless the regime throws its army on a last death ride, this slow motion carnage will continue throughout all this year, until new governments come in power in Paris and Berlin that are ready to abandon Ukraine and restore ties with Moscow.

EDIT: Just in.


Chervonets has posted this in its blog, quoting Ukrainian sources

Ukraine no longer has almost any heavy missiles and shells. As it became known, at the glowing giant military depots in Balakley (Kharkiv region), after the outbreak of the war in the Donbass,, almost all Ukrainian shells of great caliber were stored hastily brought there from other Ukrainian warehouses in 2014 and 2015.

Ukrainian soldiers who served in these warehouses, on the grounds of anonymity and for a monetary reward, told Ukrainian deputies from the opposition party Oleg Lyashko that the following items were kept in warehouses:

- 75% of the tank shells,
- all missiles of the systems "Tochka-U", "Smerch", "Hurricane", "
- about 80% of rocekts of MLRS "Grad",
- about 90% of shells for the "Peony", (203mm)
- at least 75% of the "Msta-C", "Acacia", and Hyacinth (152mm)
- 100% of the "Carnation". (122mm)

Don't get your hopes up. Rumor has it that trains are being loaded in Poland, former DDR and other charmers and will head east, carrying what they have not sold to the takfiri.

http://russia-insider.com/en/west-blames-putin-after-ukrainian-soldier-ukrainian-passport-shoots-russian-fugitive-kiev/ri19319

The "defector" was offed by a Banderite Nazi. But of course, Putin did it.

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:Don't get your hopes up. Rumor has it that trains are being loaded in Poland, former DDR and other charmers and will head east, carrying what they have not sold to the takfiri.

Still less than what they had before. All that firepower is gone for good and sugardaddies can only deliver so much. That stuff is no longer abundant.

Also, as someone who was a sapper in the army, those photos of mountains of rusted ordinance lying around give me the creeps.

Glad I'm not the poor sod who will have to clean up what's left...

It's ironic, but predictable that the ploy to castrate the Ukrainian army to prevent it from holding the country together and preventing
Nazi lunatics from taking over the asylum, would come back and bite the smartasses behind the ploy in the ass. The Ukrainian
army was starved of financing since the 1990s and Kuchma was the clown who paved the way for the Orange Crapulution. It
is surprising this depot fire did not happen earlier. Somebody must have seriously tried to keep it under control, but it was doomed
anyway.

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:Don't get your hopes up. Rumor has it that trains are being loaded in Poland, former DDR and other charmers and will head east, carrying what they have not sold to the takfiri.

Still less than what they had before. All that firepower is gone for good and sugardaddies can only deliver so much. That stuff is no longer abundant.

Also, as someone who was a sapper in the army, those photos of mountains of rusted ordinance lying around give me the creeps.

Glad I'm not the poor sod who will have to clean up what's left...

Maybe artillery shell being shipped east but I wonder how much rocket munitions were left in the rest of the Warsaw Pact countries. Wouldn't a large amount of rocket munitions be deployed with the launchers?

Will they bother cleaning it up?

Is it still burning?

To answer my last question, no. The drone footage gives some indication of just how large the site was with some significant admin buildings.




I don't speak the lingo but I assume this is about the local damage around the munitions dump. Poetic justice in a way, its like the damage those explosives might have done in Donbas.

For me the number of 138000 tons is credible.

I was reading recently some report about the process of destruction of weapons and ammunitions that Ukraine started in 2005. In the report, it was said that Ukraine had at the time between 2.5 to 3.0 millions of tons of ammunitions of which 1.5 millions of tons where declared as excedents to be destroyed in the following years.

The commented in the article of 2013 linked before would be only a fraction of the total to be destroyed.

Note that the priority of the NATO, and the first part done, was to destroy MANPADS. Under the excuse of the old ammunition.

Some drone footage from the daytime, amazing fireworks at about 3.00



EDIT

Well that was short lived! I am not surprised that it was pulled, it showed the site in very good definition, especially the undamaged areas. Definitely an OPSEC failure.

Think I have found it again

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:Don't get your hopes up. Rumor has it that trains are being loaded in Poland, former DDR and other charmers and will head east, carrying what they have not sold to the takfiri.

Still less than what they had before. All that firepower is gone for good and sugardaddies can only deliver so much. That stuff is no longer abundant.

Also, as someone who was a sapper in the army, those photos of mountains of rusted ordinance lying around give me the creeps.

Glad I'm not the poor sod who will have to clean up what's left...

You are assuming they will clean it up. We both know that herd of fools in Kiev and I'm willing to bet they will be screaming bloody murder to nato etc to help them clean up the mess from more Russian aggression. Means more tens of millions in their pockets.