The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

EU's commissioner for Migration, Interior and Citizenship say that, if Ukraina manages to join EU, it has to accept immigrants from Africa.

He also emphasized that Ukraina is a good haven for African immigrant  because of the mild climate, fertile soil and available infrastructure.

Dunno if the Right Sector facist may like this.

http://dumaiu.ru/evrokomissiya-ukraina-obyazana-prinimat-migrantov-iz-afriki-i-blizhnego-vostoka/

Chersonesus wrote:OT: When I try to post links, there is a message saying something to the effect that new members cannot post links. How do I get link posting privileges?

You can post links when you have enough posts and have joined a number of days.

Correct me if I am wrong, but according to Google Translate, the article said that on the night of 14-15 August, Luhansk forces successfully repelled one Maidan attack. Maidan force had 9 KIA, 30 WIA, lost 2 IFV and 1 APC. Luhansk force had 1 KIA and 27 WIA.

http://infopolk.ru/1/W/news/1439645798#6c945777-f0d6-4201-b042-84104abba344

Chersonesus wrote:

OT: When I try to post links, there is a message saying something to the effect that new members cannot post links. How do I get link posting privileges?

7 day rule.

Ukrainians support Maiden until it affects their hols methinks.

An endless number of Ukrainian cars keep crossing the border into Crimea, as Ukrainians come to the Russian peninsula for holidays, Ukrainian news channel Uapress.info reported.

In response, Ukrainian radicals have urged to make lists of "traitors," who decided to take their vacation on the Russian peninsula and threatened to punish them later. "I recently spoke with Ilya Kiva, the deputy head of the Kherson regional department of the Ukrainian Armed forces. He said Ukrainians are going to the occupied Crimea for holidays en masse. According to their car plates, holiday-goers are from Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkov and Kiev," Ukrainian politician Dmytro Korchynsky said, according to the source. Korchynsky was worried by the trend and said Ukraine should make the list of those who chose to go to the peninsula "occupied" by Russia.

Crimea has always been regarded as a perfect destination for tourists. The number of tourists that are expected to visit the peninsula during the 2015 holiday season stands at 4.3 million people, which is a 15 percent increase from 2014.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150817/1025838586.html#ixzz3j5CfIRJJ

sepheronx wrote:Available infrastructure? You mean the dilapidated soviet apartment blocks and the homes of the people who fled the country?

Probably the infrastructure left by the ones who ran over to Russia to avoid conscription, who knows

Lavrov, having not said much on Ukraine recently is now on the case, laying it out pretty well.

MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. Russia is concerned about the developments in Ukraine, which are reminiscent of Kiev’s preparation for hostilities, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday following talks with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif.

"As for the situation with the implementation of the Minsk agreements of February 12, we are really very much concerned about the current state of affairs," he noted. "I regularly discuss the issue with my colleagues. The other day I spoke with [US Secretary of State] John Kerry and [German Foreign Minister] Frank-Walter Steinmeier. We also conveyed the appropriate assessments to Paris as another country, which, along with Germany and Russia, is a guarantor of the Minsk agreements."

"The situation at the frontlines is alarming," the minister went on to say. "Unfortunately, one may already talk not about the line of contact, but in actual fact about the frontline. Talks were under way for a long time in response to calls from the ‘Normandy Four’ to demilitarize Shirokino and withdraw weapons with caliber under 100 mm to a distance of 15 kilometers on each side. The parties could not agree on the issue for a long time because of Kiev’s changing stance. Then the militias took some unilateral steps, withdrawing all their units from Shirokino and pulling back weapons to a distance of 3 kilometers. We hoped that such a goodwill gesture would prompt similar steps by the Ukrainian armed forces, but this did not happen. Combatants of the Azov volunteer battalion, which were withdrawn from the area, were immediately replaced by the units of the regular Ukrainian Armed Forces. There is information that the marines appeared there as well, which also gives food for thought."

According to the minister, the agreement on withdrawal of weaponry from the line of contact was not signed at the Contact Group meeting, because the Ukrainian side at the last moment changed its stance abandoning the previous agreements. "We are concerned about the recent developments, which strongly resemble preparations for hostilities," Lavrov said. "That was the way it happened last August, when the Ukrainian army was ordered to launch an offensive, that was the way it happened in January, when there was another attempt to resolve the situation by force."

According to Lavrov, Moscow hopes that the meetings of Contact Group and its sub-groups scheduled for next week will change the worrisome situation in Ukraine and help establish direct dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk. Lavrov stressed that direct talks between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk "are the essence of all agreements that were made in Minsk." "We will definitely not move anywhere without this. There is Contact Group, its four sub-groups, in the framework of which all work should be done on overcoming obstacles on the way of implementing the package of measures from February 12," he added.

The foreign minister noted that "the Ukrainian side is always trying to avoid such contacts or impose an approach, according to which all issues should be solved without Donetsk and Luhansk, and they should just informed after the decision is made," Lavrov said. "All this evokes very troublesome thoughts. I hope that the meetings of Contact Group and its sub-groups planned for next week will somehow change this tendency of Kiev’s refusal of direct dialogue. And together with our partners from the ‘Normandy format’, together with American colleagues who assured us that they sincerely want to see the full implementation of Minsk-2, we will be able to help establish such dialogue," he concluded.

BKP wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Erk wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Now that's why Maidanists list Trump as "enemy of Ukraina"

http://sputniknews.com/us/20150817/1025818360.html#ixzz3j1N7zACc

Donald Trump: Ukraine Crisis Is Problem of Europe, Not US

I think Trump is a fake, US oligarchs never seem to win the elections, I think he was chosen to take the heat off Clinton. She is the real threat to global peace.

Oligarchs are the only ones who can compete in US elections.

Trump is no man of the people, but he did drop a couple of huge truth bombs during the recent republican debate. He flat-out said that US politicians are owned lock, stock and barrel by the American aristocracy.

Mike Whitney wrote a good, short piece in regard to it:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/08/07/trumps-triumph-billionaire-blowhard-exposes-fake-political-system/

He's convinced that for blurting out the unmentionable in front of much of the country, Trump will be torn down by the US oligarchy, even though he's is one of their own. The oligarchs own all the major media, so I imagine that he is correct about that. They will Howard Dean his ass one way or the other.

Of course Trump is not a man of the people. There hasn't been a US President like that for quite some time now. Trump said what a silent majority in this country are thinking but cannot say aloud because of the people in power. Some of the things he said are things that the media should be saying but are not, like the political elite controls the politics in the country as you mentioned. His main opponents right now are the GOP, because a Trump presidency takes the party in a way they don't want to go.

I think that electing a president thinking that he will directly affect the economy for the better is stupid. Of course presidents can indirectly affect the economy. However, the Republican economic strategies allow businesses and corporations to flourish. In the long run that will help the people to flourish as well. With Trump being a businessman himself, I'm sure he will do the best to promote and empower business in the US. He has also has shown willingness to do business in Russia, so he would help reestablish relations with Russia.

Trump himself knows that he doesn't have a good chance of winning despite what current polls say. So he must be running for or either two reasons or both of them:
1) He is promoting his businesses. As they say, any publicity is good publicity. I'm sure his profit margins are through the roof this year.
2) He is working for Hillary Clinton. The GOP is very divided nowadays so there may be some truth to this "conspiracy theory."

Back on topic, reports that the Ukrops are transporting a ton of armor to the front. Videos of everything that we seen before like BMP-2s. Rumors that even some T-80s have joined the fray.nLooks like the Hohols will throw everything they have at Donbass as a last resort.

sepheronx wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:EU's commissioner for Migration, Interior and Citizenship say that, if Ukraina manages to join EU, it has to accept immigrants from Africa.

He also emphasized that Ukraina is a good haven for African immigrant  because of the mild climate, fertile soil and available infrastructure.

Dunno if the Right Sector facist may like this.

http://dumaiu.ru/evrokomissiya-ukraina-obyazana-prinimat-migrantov-iz-afriki-i-blizhnego-vostoka/

Available infrastructure? You mean the dilapidated soviet apartment blocks and the homes of the people who fled the country?

Yeah, I dont think that will fly with the citizens. Already backlash of immigrants in the Balttic countries happening. People dont want the immigrants (and I dont think the immigrants want to stay in a country that is on par with the very place they fled).

Guys read between the lines:"...mild climate...''

As in: ''we don't want those filthy brown immigrants stinking up our cold fancy central/north European realestate so why not dump them in that hellhole we bought without thinking''.

Europeans-innocent victims of their own idiocy...

Ivan the Colorado wrote: Back on topic, reports that the Ukrops are transporting a ton of armor to the front. Videos of everything that we seen before like BMP-2s. Rumors that even some T-80s have joined the fray.nLooks like the Hohols will throw everything they have at Donbass as a last resort.

I did say I saw a video of them starting to re activate/restore T-80's in really bad shape .... how well restored they are is in the lap of the gods ... they looked like early T-80B's to me ... I think the video was from 3 to 4 weeks ago ... leaving armour out in the elements for 15 - 20 years must weaken them structurally and the composition of the composite armor

Godric wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote: Back on topic, reports that the Ukrops are transporting a ton of armor to the front. Videos of everything that we seen before like BMP-2s. Rumors that even some T-80s have joined the fray.nLooks like the Hohols will throw everything they have at Donbass as a last resort.

I did say I saw a video of them starting to re activate/restore T-80's in really bad shape .... how well restored they are is in the lap of the gods ... they looked like early T-80B's to me ... I think the video was from 3 to 4 weeks ago ... leaving armour out in the elements for 15 - 20 years  must weaken them structurally and the composition of the composite armor

I was thinking that too. I could be someone who doesn't know how to identify armor though.

PapaDragon wrote:

BKP wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Erk wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Now that's why Maidanists list Trump as "enemy of Ukraina"

http://sputniknews.com/us/20150817/1025818360.html#ixzz3j1N7zACc

Donald Trump: Ukraine Crisis Is Problem of Europe, Not US

I think Trump is a fake, US oligarchs never seem to win the elections, I think he was chosen to take the heat off Clinton. She is the real threat to global peace.

Oligarchs are the only ones who can compete in US elections.

Trump is no man of the people, but he did drop a couple of huge truth bombs during the recent republican debate. He flat-out said that US politicians are owned lock, stock and barrel by the American aristocracy.

Mike Whitney wrote a good, short piece in regard to it:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/08/07/trumps-triumph-billionaire-blowhard-exposes-fake-political-system/

He's convinced that for blurting out the unmentionable in front of much of the country, Trump will be torn down by the US oligarchy, even though he's is one of their own. The oligarchs own all the major media, so I imagine that he is correct about that. They will Howard Dean his ass one way or the other.

US political system is in desperate need for shakeup and I don't say that just because of foreign policy and wars.

Keep in mind that there are nearly 400 million people living in that country and a lot of them are stuck in a very dangerous and fragile loop while their politicians gamble with theirs as well as lives of people abroad.

USA now is repeating same mistakes that led to collapse of USSR which is, they are wasting time, money, reputation and lives trying to impose their ideology on rest of the planet instead of looking after the interest of their own population.

When USSR collapsed, entire continent was thrown into chaos. If USA goes down the same path entire planet will be in chaos.

Donald Trump may have his share of flaws but given the alternatives offered, he is by far the best choice right now.

This is all true. I am blessed to have running water, but it tastes like wet dirt, and is undrinkable. Before it smelled like after shave and ??? I'm blessed I can afford to buy bottled water. True we had a drouth, and the lake got low, but it's filled back up, Oh and there was a gas leak into it this summer.

& this week I've seen 2 other towns in my area with boil water notice.

& 40 % of the Navajos on the Navajo rez have no running water. just thought I'd throw that in there...
They had wells, but big business mining for uranium polluted them.

There's what politicians say, and then there's the facts...

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Godric wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote: Back on topic, reports that the Ukrops are transporting a ton of armor to the front. Videos of everything that we seen before like BMP-2s. Rumors that even some T-80s have joined the fray.nLooks like the Hohols will throw everything they have at Donbass as a last resort.

I did say I saw a video of them starting to re activate/restore T-80's in really bad shape .... how well restored they are is in the lap of the gods ... they looked like early T-80B's to me ... I think the video was from 3 to 4 weeks ago ... leaving armour out in the elements for 15 - 20 years  must weaken them structurally and the composition of the composite armor

I was thinking that too. I could be someone who doesn't know how to identify armor though.

I suppose it depends how desperate the Ukies are to bolster their rapidly depleting tank force ... I also believe the Ukies standards of restored differs greatly from Russian and western standards ... we have all seen the stories of their new military hardware falling apart before it even reaches the ATO area

Godric wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

Godric wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote: Back on topic, reports that the Ukrops are transporting a ton of armor to the front. Videos of everything that we seen before like BMP-2s. Rumors that even some T-80s have joined the fray.nLooks like the Hohols will throw everything they have at Donbass as a last resort.

I did say I saw a video of them starting to re activate/restore T-80's in really bad shape .... how well restored they are is in the lap of the gods ... they looked like early T-80B's to me ... I think the video was from 3 to 4 weeks ago ... leaving armour out in the elements for 15 - 20 years  must weaken them structurally and the composition of the composite armor

I was thinking that too. I could be someone who doesn't know how to identify armor though.

I suppose it depends how desperate the Ukies are to bolster their rapidly depleting tank force ... I also believe the Ukies standards of restored differs greatly from Russian and western standards ... we have all seen the stories of their new military hardware falling apart before it even reaches the ATO area

Perhaps if you treat the tank like a SP gun then some of the 'tank' attributes are not so necessary. It looks like, for some reason, they need as many guns as they can lay their hands on (push, tow, transport etc) in the ceasefire area.

Putin' the boot in

YALTA, August 17. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is confident that all difficulties in Ukraine will be over. At the same time, he called humiliating for the people of Ukraine the practice of the external administration in this country that has been de facto imposed by Kiev.

"I am sure that despite all the difficulties of the current period of time, the situation in Ukraine will be rectified too, Ukraine will be developing positively and will depart from this disgraceful practice that we see today, namely, placing a whole huge European country under the external administration with key positions in the government and in the regions held by foreign nationals," he said. "I think that all this is humiliating for the Ukrainian people," Putin noted.

The Russian president expressed confidence that this practice was yet to be assessed by the Ukrainian people. "Ukraine will recover and will be developing positively and will build its future along with Russia," he said.


Whilst the impotent Poro bleats


KIEV, August 17 /TASS/. A visit to Crimea by Russia president Vladimir Putin continues aggravating tensions, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko wrote in Facebook on Monday.

"Putin’s arrival in Ukrainian Crimea without prior agreement with the Ukrainian authorities is a challenge to a civilized world. It continues the scenario of aggravating the crisis in Donbas. Such trips are leading to further militarization of the Crimean peninsula and are pushing it to greater isolation. Crimea has a future, including in the sphere of tourism, only if it remains part of Ukraine," the Ukrainian president said.

Military traffic only and no car cams please.

KIEV, August 17. /TASS/. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has announced the closure of several transport corridors to the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics (DPR and LPR).

"In connection with the risk of death for citizens, transport corridors through the disengagement line will be closed," the council said, adding that it related to corridors near the inhabited localities of Mayorskoye and Zaytsevo.


Meanwhile in Donetsk, Basurin does not mention >100mm gear. An oversight no doubt.


MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. The self-defense forces command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) did not order to return tanks and armored vehicles equipped with weapons of less than 100mm caliber from their positions in the rear, DPR defense ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin told Donetsk News Agency on Monday.

"What concerns us, we have not yet ordered to return weaponry to positions [on the frontline]," Basurin said.

Interesting take on the political moves being made by Poro to bolster his position. These are the first paras.

Police Minister Arsen Avakov suddenly took vacation. Since August 10th, he is officially relaxing. This in itself is surprising, because the officials of the new Kiev regime, as a rule, do not advertise their vacations. Poroshenko, for example, spent four days vacationing on a yacht in Croatia with his buddy, but you will find nothing on this subject in the Ukrainian media.

It is considered prudent to believe that the leaders of the "Revolution of Dignity" never sleep, do not go to the bathroom, and work round the clock for the benefit of the Motherland, paid in food and small change. Then, comes an official announcement about Avakov’s vacation. Country is plagued by rampant crime and banditry, the reform of the Interior Ministry is in full swing, and Avakov is going away "to rest". This is the first odd thing.

The second oddity: Avakov has six deputies. Eka Zguladze is nominally number one, but de facto she is focused on the implementation of the "new police" PR project - the one where good-looking boys and girls drive around on ecology-friendly "Toyota Prius" and cosplay tough American cops, helping old ladies across the street and chasing in three cars after one drunk hobo. Poroshenko signed the law on the “new police” in August, and blatantly hinted that he would like to see Zghuladze herself as the head policewoman in Ukraine. Eka at first played at being a virgin, stalled and did not give a clear answer. Now, suddenly, she becomes the acting Police Minister, although, <having recently arrived from Georgia together with the fugitive strongman Saakashvili>, she has absolutely no understanding of the local problems - which she herself has repeatedly admitted to.

The third oddity: there is no information on when Avakov’s leave will end. He usually hangs on "Facebook" all day long, shares his thoughts, spouts drivel about opening hundreds of criminal cases against Yanukovych's various minions, and now he’s suspiciously quiet all of a sudden. Did not even write a single post about his leave. This is clearly not his style.
And finally, the following item: Porko vetoed the law on the new structure of the Police Ministry, which until recently was touted as the most advanced regulation in European history. The law specifically stated that Eka's “new police” would be subordinated to the Police Ministry.

Now you just need to put two and two together and come to the obvious conclusion. In short, Avakov is being removed.

Rest of article at http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/avakovs-vacation-poroshenko-will.html

flamming_python wrote:

kvs wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Ukraine fails to secure debt write-off at US talks

http://www.rt.com/news/312509-ukraine-debt-talks-california/

The country’s GDP is expected to shrink 9 percent this year, with annual inflation expected to jump to 46 percent, the IMF has warned. The debt will hit 95 percent of GDP this year, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

I can't believe RT is spouting the 9% figure when Ukraine's GDP fell almost 18% year on year in the 1st quarter.
To have a net fall of 9% in 2015 requires Ukraine's GDP to grow by 9% in the remaining 3 quarters.   That ain't
gonna happen since the 2nd quarter will still be down compared to 2014:



Note the lack of any turn-around trend in Ukraine's GDP drop.

You're calculating it wrong.

Don't take the quarterly figure as 'GDP has fallen by 18%', but rather 'GDP will fall by 18% this year if we have 3 more quarters like this one'.

In other words, the GDP decline for Q1 was 18/4 = 4.5%
Or rather 17.6/4 = 4.4% to be exact

The GDP decline for Q2 BTW has already been published; 14.7%

Shame its decline stopped accelerating  

But no matter. As long as the decline in the next 2 quarters averages out at at least 13.85%; we'd still end up with the Ukraine loosing 15% of its economy this year. Suits me.

Does Ukraine losing 15% of its economy include Crimea and Donbass or no?

Karl Haushofer wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

kvs wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Ukraine fails to secure debt write-off at US talks

http://www.rt.com/news/312509-ukraine-debt-talks-california/

The country’s GDP is expected to shrink 9 percent this year, with annual inflation expected to jump to 46 percent, the IMF has warned. The debt will hit 95 percent of GDP this year, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

I can't believe RT is spouting the 9% figure when Ukraine's GDP fell almost 18% year on year in the 1st quarter.
To have a net fall of 9% in 2015 requires Ukraine's GDP to grow by 9% in the remaining 3 quarters.   That ain't
gonna happen since the 2nd quarter will still be down compared to 2014:



Note the lack of any turn-around trend in Ukraine's GDP drop.

You're calculating it wrong.

Don't take the quarterly figure as 'GDP has fallen by 18%', but rather 'GDP will fall by 18% this year if we have 3 more quarters like this one'.

In other words, the GDP decline for Q1 was 18/4 = 4.5%
Or rather 17.6/4 = 4.4% to be exact

The GDP decline for Q2 BTW has already been published; 14.7%

Shame its decline stopped accelerating  

But no matter. As long as the decline in the next 2 quarters averages out at at least 13.85%; we'd still end up with the Ukraine loosing 15% of its economy this year. Suits me.

Does Ukraine losing 15% of its economy include Crimea and Donbass or no?

Nope it does not.

No Maidan shelling tonight? Calm before the storm?

The nightly concert started rather late tonight. Shelling started in Krasnohorivka.

Expect this to be all over tomorrow's papers in the West. Yeah, right!

VIENNA, August 17. /TASS/. International observers monitoring the ceasefire in Ukraine reported on Monday that Grad rocket launchers had been used in recent days to shell settlements in the country’s east.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s special monitoring mission (SMM) to Ukraine observed damage caused by shelling and conducted several crater analyses in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, SMM monitors said in their latest report.

Analyses of eight fresh craters in the Krasnoarmeyskoye settlement, subjected to shelling on August 14, indicated that "they were all caused by Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS, 122mm) originating from a westerly direction", monitors said.

Similar conclusions were reached after visiting the settlement of Telmanovo on August 16. "The SMM analysed 16 craters and concluded that they were caused by MLRS (122mm BM-21 Grad) fired from a west-south-westerly direction," the report said. "The SMM observed that some houses were heavily damaged and a transformer providing electricity to the village was destroyed."

Last weekend, SMM monitors also visited four Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons holding areas. "In two areas a total of eight MLRS (122mm BM-21 Grad) previously recorded were absent," the report said, adding that at Donetsk’s heavy weapons holding areas the mission verified "all previously registered weapons were present".

The overall situation in the Luhansk region remained relatively tense, monitors said, noting "a significant increase in ceasefire violations" observed in areas north-west of the city of Luhansk.