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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

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    gregoire


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    Post  gregoire Sun Jun 07, 2015 4:53 pm

    The US failed with Vietnam. It learned how to lie better.
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    Post  franco Sun Jun 07, 2015 5:10 pm

    gregoire wrote:The US failed with Vietnam. It learned how to lie better.

    The Corporate take over of the Media since was the biggest thing.
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    Post  Neutrality Sun Jun 07, 2015 5:38 pm

    I'm reading that several hundred activists set up tents on Maidan square, demanding that the government gives them a list of reforms that have already been implemented. Boy, are these suckers in for a surprise when they find out that nothing has been done Laughing
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    Post  gregoire Sun Jun 07, 2015 5:58 pm

    franco wrote:
    gregoire wrote:The US failed with Vietnam. It learned how to lie better.

    The Corporate take over of the Media since was the biggest thing.

    Exactly my point.
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    Post  gregoire Sun Jun 07, 2015 5:58 pm

    Neutrality wrote:I'm reading that several hundred activists set up tents on Maidan square, demanding that the government gives them a list of reforms that have already been implemented. Boy, are these suckers in for a surprise when they find out that nothing has been done Laughing

    They probably get shot at and branded as russian terrorists.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 5:59 pm

    whir wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:There were no Western NGOs in the 80s USSR, yet that didn't prevent the state and its ideology along with it from collapsing in disgrace from the discontent of its own people, after at least 5 years of rising internal conflicts and a collapsing economy.
    But there was something called radio that used to spread and foster all kinds of beautiful ideas like "you could have a much bigger salary with unemployment" or the mythical Marshal Plan 2.0.

    As others have said, such things were only looked to because people were living in misery and were looking for alternatives/a way out. Any straw would be grasped for.

    Same will happen in the Ukraine sooner or later, it's always the same pattern.
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    Post  Cowboy's daughter Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:14 pm

    Regular wrote:Well Russia had plenty of failures as most of big countries/empires. US never had nothing close to fall like Russia experienced. Remember fall of Tsarism and fall of Communism. How Russia remained one country is still a mystery to me.

    Well, we had the Great Depression, but I reckon so did everyone else. My Mom lived thru it (& her brothers). They went hungry.

    But I just meant, whether I'm right or wrong, I just see a pattern of U.S. military failures...since Viet Nam...
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    Post  whir Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:31 pm

    112 UA via Google Translate wrote:Кихтенко: 80% предприятий, оставшихся на оккупированных территориях Донбасса, платят налоги в бюджет Украины
    Kikhtenko: 80% of the companies remaining in the occupied territories of Donbass, pay taxes to the budget of Ukraine
    14:26, 7 June 2015

    According to him, to break economic relations with the occupied Donbas is impossible without mutual losses

    Ukraine's leadership should clearly announce the principles of state policy in the occupied territories of Donbass. This was stated by the head of the Donetsk military and Civil Administration (CAA), Alexander Kikhtenko reports ZN.UA . According to him, to break economic relations with the occupied Donbas is impossible without mutual loss.
    "The total blockade may be justified only break Minsk agreements and the rejection of territories. What is also an option, if it is honest and sounded like country and our foreign partners" - said Kikhtenko.

    According to him, the authorities should "finally clearly articulate the principles of state policy in respect of Donbass".

    "In the occupied territories live our citizens. Minsk agreement has not been canceled. We will have to live in one country" - he stressed.

    According Kikhtenko, 80% of industrial companies remaining in the occupied territories of Donbass, pay taxes to the budget of Ukraine.

    "These enterprises need to sell their products, and we buy it. And to break economic ties with many of them impossible without mutual loss. Therefore, we must seek a balance and aim for creation. Economic ties of coal and steel enterprises to break is impossible without mutual loss. There will be no coal will not coke, not metal. the system will collapse. Including our purposes, "- said the head of Donoghue. Continue reading.

    Tatzhit Mihailovich wrote:Pro-Kiev battalion commander: 99% of people I know in Donbass have come to hate Ukraine by now

    UKRAINE TODAY wrote:Residents of Avdiivka Rattled by Violence: East Ukrainian town damaged by recent shelling

    Дніпро-1 Аеророзвідка wrote:hirokino 30th May. Aerial reconnaissance "Dnipro-1"

    NBC wrote:U.S. Trains Ukrainian Forces on Russia's Doorstep — And Moscow Isn't Happy
    JUN 7 2015, 8:24 AM ET by CARLO ANGERER

    YAVORIV, Ukraine — American troops are training Ukrainian forces on Russia's doorstep, a move seen as a major provocation by Vladimir Putin's regime.

    The live-fire drills and counter-insurgency exercises involving about 300 U.S. paratroopers are a key bone of contention for the Moscow, which the West accuses of helping to arm pro-Kremlin rebels in eastern Ukraine.

    The U.S. military has previously conducted exercises that involved Ukrainian soldiers, but the direct training is a first. Relations between Washington and Moscow are at their lowest ebb in decades with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warning late last year that the world was "on the brink of a new Cold War."

    Russia has also been excluded from this weekend's G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, due to its annexation of the Ukraine's Crimea region. U.S. President Barack Obama, upon arriving in Germany, said the summit would discuss Russian "aggression" in Ukraine.

    During the current six-month mission which began in April, the U.S. military is working with more than 700 Ukrainian soldiers in three rotations. Trainers say that their students are improving quickly.

    "From what we saw at day one to where they are at right now, they've proven their willingness to learn," Capt. Nick Salimbene told NBC News. "They're getting better on a day-to-day basis."

    The training by members of the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade is taking place about 700 miles away from the front lines in Eastern Ukraine, where fighting intensified late last week. Continue reading.

    The Irish Times wrote:Patrol boat explodes and sinks off Ukraine’s Mariupol port
    Sun, Jun 7, 2015, 16:54

    Mariupol on the edge of conflict between government forces and Russian-backed separatists

    A search operation was underway on Sunday for a missing border guard official after a patrol boat sank off Ukraine’s port city of Mariupol following an explosion, border guard authorities said.

    Six crew members were injured.

    The cause of the explosion was not immediately clear, authorities said.

    Mariupol is on the edge of the conflict between government forces and Russian-backed separatists and has been under threat from rebel attacks for months.

    “Today at 14.20 hrs a patrol boat exploded as it came out of its mooring station in Mariupol,” a state border guard statement said. It went down in the Sea of Azov.

    “There were seven service staff on board. Six of them received injuries of various degrees. The search is continuing for one service staff member,” it said.

    The boat suffered substantial damage, it said. Continue reading.

    Військові новини Західної України wrote:Russian terrorists' attack on Marinka - whole streets destroyed by shelling.
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    Post  kvs Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:40 pm

    gregoire wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I'm reading that several hundred activists set up tents on Maidan square, demanding that the government gives them a list of reforms that have already been implemented. Boy, are these suckers in for a surprise when they find out that nothing has been done Laughing

    They probably get shot at and branded as russian terrorists.

    Frau Merkel will not be making any demands on Poroshenko to treat them nicely for sure.
    The NATO lie factory media will not even cover them being shot and beaten to death
    by regime brown shirts (Right Sector goons). These brown shirts have succeeded in
    shutting down any protests in Kharkov and Odessa.

    Breathe that fresh air of freedom!
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    Post  mack8 Sun Jun 07, 2015 9:53 pm

    Whir, no disrespect intended, but i respectfully recommend curtailing to post pro-Kiev western MSM "news" here, we are surrounded by their suffocating propaganda at every step, what we are really needing here is the other view, which is much harder to come by. There is a Ukraine thread in this section frequented by various pro-Kiev trolls, if really necessary you can post that kind of "news" there, anyone interested can check it in that thread. Thanks.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:07 pm

    kvs wrote:
    gregoire wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I'm reading that several hundred activists set up tents on Maidan square, demanding that the government gives them a list of reforms that have already been implemented. Boy, are these suckers in for a surprise when they find out that nothing has been done Laughing

    They probably get shot at and branded as russian terrorists.

    Frau Merkel will not be making any demands on Poroshenko to treat them nicely for sure.
    The NATO lie factory media will not even cover them being shot and beaten to death
    by regime brown shirts (Right Sector goons).   These brown shirts have succeeded in
    shutting down any protests in Kharkov and Odessa.  

    Breathe that fresh air of freedom!

    Too simple. You don't seem to understand, Merkel and co. are smart people. Smart enough not to get associated with a political corpse. They draw their influence ultimately not from the puppets they install, but from the unfortunate naivety of the Ukrainian people. Those who can be duped once, can be duped again.

    So why wouldn't she?

    Those are the 'good' protestors, the ones protesting about the corruption of their government - Merkel and co. want to keep them on their side, and the population of Kiev in general.
    Afterall, it may be neccessery to use Porko as a scapegoat sometime down the line, and when his popularity falls to the single digits the West wouldn't their own popularity to go down with him. They'll sacrifice him and sing the same Maidan tune as they did before, hoping to fool the people again (and they just might).

    The 'bad' protestors, the pro-Russian ones - are the ones that truly have no benefit to bring the West whatsoever and are only a hindarance; they will certainly be ignored or airbrushed out of the narrative, no question.
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    Post  whir Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:11 pm

    mack8 wrote:Whir, no disrespect intended, but i respectfully recommend curtailing to post pro-Kiev western MSM "news" here, we are surrounded by their suffocating propaganda at every step, what we are really needing here is the other view, which is much harder to come by. There is a Ukraine thread in this section frequented by various pro-Kiev trolls, if really necessary you can post that kind of "news" there, anyone interested can check it in that thread. Thanks.
    Variety is the spice of life, I think that quoting different news from different sources serves the purpose of having an ample spectre of knowledgeable events to get a more accurate picture of facts, that's why I quote them.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:11 pm

    mack8 wrote:Whir, no disrespect intended, but i respectfully recommend curtailing to post pro-Kiev western MSM "news" here, we are surrounded by their suffocating propaganda at every step, what we are really needing here is the other view, which is much harder to come by. There is a Ukraine thread in this section frequented by various pro-Kiev trolls, if really necessary you can post that kind of "news" there, anyone interested can check it in that thread. Thanks.

    No, I like the diversity - and let's be frank, we need it, this thread and the board in general is way too one-sided.
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    Post  kvs Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:33 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    gregoire wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:I'm reading that several hundred activists set up tents on Maidan square, demanding that the government gives them a list of reforms that have already been implemented. Boy, are these suckers in for a surprise when they find out that nothing has been done Laughing

    They probably get shot at and branded as russian terrorists.

    Frau Merkel will not be making any demands on Poroshenko to treat them nicely for sure.
    The NATO lie factory media will not even cover them being shot and beaten to death
    by regime brown shirts (Right Sector goons).   These brown shirts have succeeded in
    shutting down any protests in Kharkov and Odessa.  

    Breathe that fresh air of freedom!

    Too simple. You don't seem to understand, Merkel and co. are smart people. Smart enough not to get associated with a political corpse. They draw their influence ultimately not from the puppets they install, but from the unfortunate naivety of the Ukrainian people. Those who can be duped once, can be duped again.

    So why wouldn't she?

    Those are the 'good' protestors, the ones protesting about the corruption of their government - Merkel and co. want to keep them on their side, and the population of Kiev in general.
    Afterall, it may be neccessery to use Porko as a scapegoat sometime down the line, and when his popularity falls to the single digits the West wouldn't their own popularity to go down with him. They'll sacrifice him and sing the same Maidan tune as they did before, hoping to fool the people again (and they just might).

    The 'bad' protestors, the pro-Russian ones - are the ones that truly have no benefit to bring the West whatsoever and are only a hindarance; they will certainly be ignored or airbrushed out of the narrative, no question.


    Unfortunately, Merkel is bound by the NATO propaganda narrative like a ball and chain. She would not be able to
    level any criticism against the Kiev regime since according to the precious western media it is the democratic voice
    of the people.

    There will be no cookies and NATO media attention for the anti-Poroshenko demonstrators. This is just like in the
    case of Azerbaijan during the succession of the son to the presidential job of the father. Several protestors were
    shot dead and there was not a hint of any coverage in the NATO media. NATO's regime allies do not get negative
    media coverage of the sort that would undermine them.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:58 pm

    Here be monsters, arrrrr!!!  lol1

    Two Ukrainian servicemen injured in explosion onboard coastal guards boat in Sea of Azov

    http://tass.ru/en/world/799330

    KIEV, June 7. /TASS/. Two coastal guards were injured in an explosion onboard a coastal guards boat in the Sea of Azov near Mariupol, Ukraine’s southeastern Donetsk region, the press service of the Ukrainian State Border Service said on Sunday.

    "At about 14:20 local time, an explosion occurred aboard a UMC-1000 coastal guard boat when it was leaving the Mariupol bay. The causes of the explosion have not yet been established," the press service said.

    At the moment of explosion, there were seven servicemen aboard the boat. A rescue operation is underway.

    UMC-1000 boats have a displacement of 7.4 tonnes and are capable of carrying up to 8 passengers.


    Hopefully real number is much higher...

    Over 1,700 Ukrainian servicemen killed in conflict in Donbass — presidential adviser

    http://tass.ru/en/world/799349

    KIEV, June 7. /TASS/. As many as 1,723 Ukrainian servicemen has been officially reported killed in the force operation in eastern regions, however this statistics doesn’t include those whose death has not been officially confirmed and who are reported missing, Ukrainian presidential adviser Yuri Biryukov wrote on his Facebook account on Sunday.

    "As of 18:36 on June 7, 2015, overall human losses in the Ukrainian army were 1,723 people. But there are more, not much more, but more losses. Why? Because a servicemen cannot be recognized as killed at the state level until we have a report and a death certificate. Until we have the identified body," he wrote.

    He also noted that the country’s military command cannot underrate the army’s losses. "I just cannot see from the technical point of view how the losses could be underrated when there are relatives, Facebook, volunteers. The only option that once existed was not to mention losses among volunteers who joined the army," he wrote.

    Earlier, Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko said that as many as 1,800 Ukrainian servicemen and about 7,000 civilians had been killed during the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:09 pm

    Since "EU" (*cough* USA *cough*), might be keeping sanction in place, do you guys think that NAF might get a green light to slice some more territory from ukrops?

    Minsk 2 was implemented in order to give EU option to back down on sanctions issue without loosing face. If they don't use that option now there would be very little need to keep up the charade in the following months, at least until next sanctions deadline shows up on horizon. Lord knows UAF is not exactly upholding their end of the bargain.

    Remember January? Tactical situation now is nearly identical and we seen yesterday that train loaded with fresh voentorog SPGs traveling to Donbass (among other things).

    Anyone more knowledgeable than me care to speculate?
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    Post  OminousSpudd Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:12 pm

    mack8 wrote:Whir, no disrespect intended, but i respectfully recommend curtailing to post pro-Kiev western MSM "news" here, we are surrounded by their suffocating propaganda at every step, what we are really needing here is the other view, which is much harder to come by. There is a Ukraine thread in this section frequented by various pro-Kiev trolls, if really necessary you can post that kind of "news" there, anyone interested can check it in that thread. Thanks.

    I second this. However at the same time I think there is a place for it, as building easily accessible and weighty arguments against the propaganda machine is excellent for discussions had elsewhere.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:18 pm

    OminousSpudd wrote:
    mack8 wrote:Whir, no disrespect intended, but i respectfully recommend curtailing to post pro-Kiev western MSM "news" here, we are surrounded by their suffocating propaganda at every step, what we are really needing here is the other view, which is much harder to come by. There is a Ukraine thread in this section frequented by various pro-Kiev trolls, if really necessary you can post that kind of "news" there, anyone interested can check it in that thread. Thanks.

    I second this. However at the same time I think there is a place for it, as building easily accessible and weighty arguments against the propaganda machine is excellent for discussions had elsewhere.  

    I agree with posting different viewpoints but please consider trimming off the articles that are obvious 100% pure BS. You don't see rest of us posting Zhirinovsky's press releases...
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    Post  Vann7 Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:50 pm

    NATO cannot install military bases in Ukraine with expensive miltary equipment ,in a warzone with many Russian sympatizers.. Russian special forces can behind the lines ,sabotage those facilities..  already saw reports last year for example of American Marine killed in mariupol by snipers when he went to the beach.. The last thing Russia will tolerate is NATO forces swimming in the azov sea , planting bombs on the button to target Russian Warships. Is a major threat
    to Russian navy ,having Americans operating in Azov sea.. and this is why you see reports of the coast guards being targeted by Rebels coast guard.. lol  and obvously with the full blesing
    of Russia. Russia will never allow NATO forces to operate in Azov Sea.. the entire zone have to be fully monitored by Russia every inch of it.. looking for sabotage operations of Kiev or NATO..


    THis is why i think Ukraine is doomed to collapse.. Kiev will continue pushing for provoking Russia
    and threatening their nation security.  So this is how i think Russia could do things..

    1)First give another month or Two ,of break to Ukraine to start Minsk-2 reforms.. if after
    the summer Ukraine refuse to implement MInsk-2 and continue shelling civilians ,then move
    to step 2..
    2)Infiltrate in Mariupol ,Odessa and Kharkiv and many other zones in Ukraine and finance,help to organize  massive rebellions there. Demanding Poroshenko to Resign and demand full autonomy.
    3)COmpletely Collapse ,sabotage Ukraine economy..
    4)Start supplying weapons to other cities to rebel against kiev and repeat DOnetsk and Lugansk. that is open new fronts against kiev...
    5)finance the Assasination of Poroshenko and its generals and all top leaders in Kiev.. including the Right Sector head.
    6)Protest in all cities demanding Federalization of Ukraine.. and Russia start arming partizan groups that will attack the CIAnazi groups in Ukraine..

    by that time a chain reaction will start and defections will be in the thousands from the Ukraine army to help their cities Rebellions..Lugansk Rebels can start then an offensive towards Kharkiv to connect the cities..

    Obviously women and children will have to leave Donetsk ,because the shellings will not stop..
    Literary the attacks on Donetsk and lugansk could continue forever even if 100% of Ukrainians leave the country.. NATO will never be empty of mercenaries to do the job.

    But if the Ukraine army disband.. then you will see Ukrainian ARmy defectors attacking NATO mercenaries positions in Donetsk and Lugansk contact line.

    The Russia should start sending special forces to secure Ukraine nuclear reactors near Donetsk.

    And later Russia can declare limited airstrikes against Criminals shelling civilians cities in Donetsk and Lugansk. While undercovertly sending thousands of special forces to help hold the Rebelions in other cities..

    The key here is that the disbanding of Ukraine have to be done slowly ,and that kiev cannot take advantage of it ,and blame the divisions in Ukraine on Russia.

    Then only when kiev completely collapse and no one leading there Russia can invade to help restore order in a full scale limited invasion..to only pro Russian Cities.. and secure with its army from Odessa to Kharkiv. and possibly even more towards belarus.  Cool

    And seek help of UN and Europe to restore order in Ukraine and start new elections for ukrainians to choose. and a new constitution that guarantee minorities rights.. effectively it will be a reverse of the coup.. and the Denazification of Ukraine.

    Obama and its neocons in the Senate are fully aware that Russia can take a huge advantage of
    Ukraine economic crisis and lure Ukraine or most of Ukraine into its Orbit ,because Europe will not give them any membership.

    So US will want to increase the economic warfare against Russia and increase sanctions to not allow Russia influence Ukraine and take a decisive role in restoring order there.



    Last edited by Vann7 on Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:19 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Guest Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:17 am

    Vann7 wrote:

    NATO cannot install military bases in Ukraine with expensive miltary equipment ,in a warzone with many Russian sympatizers.. Russian special forces can behind the lines ,sabotage those facilities..  already saw reports last year for example of American Marine killed in mariupol by snipers when he went to the beach.. The last thing Russia will tolerate is NATO forces swimming in the azov sea , planting bombs on the button to target Russian Warships. Is a major threat
    to Russian navy ,having Americans operating in Azov sea.. and this is why you see reports of the coast guards being targeted by Rebels coast guard.. lol  and obvously with the full blesing
    of Russia. Russia will never allow NATO forces to operate in Azov Sea.. or install military bases in Ukraine near its borders. They could try it.. but Russia will destroy them with cover op sabotage operations.
    It won't be Russian operatives that would go around knocking out NATO forces, rather it will be some local partisans. Speaking of which, how come the Russian Military hasn't trained or armed any partisan groups behind the front like in Kharkov or Odessa. Well trained groups can cause quite a bit of damage and chaos. As long as these partisan groups stick to knocking out legitimate targets of the Ukrop government, they could seriously undermine any efforts by the Junta to keep everyone in check (i.e. act as a catalyst for a new revolution).

    Oh, and according to local reports, that fearsome Ukrainian dreadnought just happened to stumble over its own sea mine. There was no engagement by the NAF.
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    Post  Vann7 Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:42 am

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    It won't be Russian operatives that would go around knocking out NATO forces, rather it will be some local partisans. Speaking of which, how come the Russian Military hasn't trained or armed any partisan groups behind the front like in Kharkov or Odessa. Well trained groups can cause quite a bit of damage and chaos. As long as these partisan groups stick to knocking out legitimate targets of the Ukrop government, they could seriously undermine any efforts by the Junta to keep everyone in check (i.e. act as a catalyst for a new revolution).

    Oh, and according to local reports, that fearsome Ukrainian dreadnought just happened to stumble over its own sea mine. There was no engagement by the NAF.

    Whatever it happens , time IS on the side of RUssia. As soon Ukrainian start feeling hungry
    and ukraine economy completely crash and no one with jobs other than Politicians ,army and NGOs.. all financed by the west.. Then Rebelions will start demanding Federalization and for Poroshenko to quit.

    By that time Russia will have armed partisans in all Pro Russian Cities ,to fight Right sector if they use guns against civilians. and it will be a lawless state. I predict more millions refugees
    moving to Russia.. and Russia can easily train the same Ukraine refugeess and provide them weapons to fight for their nation Independence and reverse the coup.

    In a decade or more.. i Do see a big Possibility for Russia of taking back most Ukraine mainland Territories..from Odessa to borders to cities all the way to Kiev and belarus eastern borders. but this will heavily depend on Russia economy..How quickly they recover and become very strong influence again. And i have the feeling that transnistria will join Russia in the near future. Specially if the attacked by Moldova .

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    Post  Regular Mon Jun 08, 2015 12:50 am

    Ukrainian footage from front is so rare that I think we can ignore their propaganda narrative and just see whats going on their side.
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    Post  AirCargo Mon Jun 08, 2015 2:19 am

    Vann7 wrote:already saw reports last year for example of American Marine killed in mariupol by snipers when he went to the beach..

    I'd like to see that source Vann, of course it will be Colonel Cassad, Fort Rus, Sputnik, Rt.....................
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    Post  AirCargo Mon Jun 08, 2015 2:47 am

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    whir wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:There were no Western NGOs in the 80s USSR, yet that didn't prevent the state and its ideology along with it from collapsing in disgrace from the discontent of its own people, after at least 5 years of rising internal conflicts and a collapsing economy.
    But there was something called radio that used to spread and foster all kinds of beautiful ideas like "you could have a much bigger salary with unemployment" or the mythical Marshal Plan 2.0.

    Western propaganda would not have been convincing if the system of the USSR had worked better or at least had had better counter-propaganda.
    Unfortunately, the Soviet Union was so focused on being a global superpower that it lost at home.

    It was all the western propaganda from the radio's fault, the grocery stores were full.

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    Post  Guest Mon Jun 08, 2015 3:07 am

    Vann7 wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:
    It won't be Russian operatives that would go around knocking out NATO forces, rather it will be some local partisans. Speaking of which, how come the Russian Military hasn't trained or armed any partisan groups behind the front like in Kharkov or Odessa. Well trained groups can cause quite a bit of damage and chaos. As long as these partisan groups stick to knocking out legitimate targets of the Ukrop government, they could seriously undermine any efforts by the Junta to keep everyone in check (i.e. act as a catalyst for a new revolution).

    Oh, and according to local reports, that fearsome Ukrainian dreadnought just happened to stumble over its own sea mine. There was no engagement by the NAF.

    Whatever it happens , time IS on the side of RUssia. As soon Ukrainian start feeling hungry
    and ukraine economy completely crash and no one with jobs other than Politicians ,army and NGOs.. all financed by the west.. Then Rebelions will start demanding Federalization and for Poroshenko to quit.

    By that time Russia will have armed partisans in all Pro Russian Cities ,to fight Right sector if they use guns against civilians. and it will be a lawless state. I predict more millions refugees
    moving to Russia.. and Russia can easily train the same Ukraine refugeess and provide them weapons to fight for their nation Independence and reverse the coup.

    In a decade or more.. i Do see a big Possibility for Russia of taking back most Ukraine mainland Territories..from Odessa to borders to cities all the way to Kiev and belarus eastern borders. but this will heavily depend on Russia economy..How quickly they recover and become very strong influence again.  And i have the feeling that transnistria will join Russia in the near future. Specially if the attacked by Moldova .

    I don't see Russia expanding anytime soon (Krim was a special case). If Russia wanted to, it could easily take back its old territories (i.e. Belarus) in the last few years, maybe even peacefully as well. However there is a reason Russia did not do this. The geopolitical game has changed significantly over the last century. One of the greatest measures of geopolitical power is expressed is not through all the lands you directly administer, but through the lands you indirectly control (a buffer or even a colony if you will). This thinking is mostly based on preventing invasions that were seen back in WWII.

    In the end, I believe that Ukraine's de facto borders as they are now will remain, but the state will continue or worsen at being a mess. The greatest powder keg here is the patience and the will of the Ukraine people. Unfortunately, if they are anything like their Russian brothers to the East, we might have to wait for quite some time. They are being tempted and destroyed by the West as Russia was around two decades ago, Russia was an absolute mess back then but the Russian people patiently waited until better times came. How long are the Ukrainian people willing to wait for the allure of the West? Their wealth is being wasted and stolen at an incredible rate, they are fighting an unnecessary war, and their population is dwindling like never before. There must be a point in the near future where enough people will be fed up and then we will see a new Maidan. We might witness the creation of a true European Somalia. A country that has collapsed and unwanted by Russia or Europe. Ukraine will be left with hating Russia for taking back Crimea and denying the Donbass, and Ukraine will hate the West for their unkept promises. The country will be left with barely any wealth or security. Europe will be denied Ukraine, and more migrants will come to Russia which will empower Russia.

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