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    Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes

    GarryB
    GarryB

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    Post  GarryB Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:37 am

    One of the rules to get into the Black Sea is that you may not send Aircraft carriers in or out.

    With the old Soviet shipyard for making their carriers in the Black Sea you ended up with Kiev class mixed ships, which the west claimed was to avoid breaking the rules, but there were provisions for it to leave and be based elsewhere and to only go back for repairs even if it was a full carrier... the reality is that the Soviets wanted fighter aircraft to support the ships but the ships had to be able to defend themselves too... the carrier was there to provide air cover for the ships, while the heavy cruisers had the heavy SAMs to provide heavy SAM cover for the carriers. The carriers had the short range SAMs and gatling guns to defend themselves of course.

    The British and the Americans are not allowed to send aircraft carriers into the Black Sea under any circumstances... not allowed ships whose only purpose is to operate aircraft, or ships over 15,000 tons in displacement.
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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:58 am

    Carrier will stay in the Med.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:49 am

    The smoldering conflict hasn't done much damage to Russia so far... most ties between Russia and the Ukraine have already been cut... by the Ukraine. ..Having HATO in the Ukraine or next to it makes very little actual difference... Russia has plenty of guns to point back.
    it will create more internal instability & resentment, just like the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Do many/most NZders have close relatives in Australia? Ks & Ms of people in many parts of Ukraine have close relatives in all of Russia, not even counting ~10M of migrant workers.
    He did it in Crimea, with falsified exaggerated # of those who voted "yes" to join the RF. The true #s would show a lot less margins.
    Prove it. If the majority of Crimeans didn't want to join the Russian Federation there is not much Russia could do to force them.
    There would be no value in faking referendum results because a hostile population couldn't be controlled and would be more trouble than they would be worth.
    it's a moot point
    Even if there were no ethnic Russian majority, Putin would still take Crimea, as it's too valuable to be let go & is pivotal to the control of the Black Sea. In 2014, its population was smaller than now & being authoritarian, Putin could care less; most of those who were against the annexation either left or too intimidated to say/do anything about it.
    Even if that was true... one pro kiev nazi dickhead with a PKM could mow them down as soon as they dropped their rifles, and the Russian forces moving forward to accept their surrender...
    they'll be known to their fellow soldiers & commanders who will neutralize them before any surrender.
    Sanctions is what Trump did, so weak ineffectual sanctions is what Biden does now... like I said he is an idiot.
    no, he is not: it's a calculated & gradual tightening of the noose around Putin's regime neck. If all the sanctions were applied at once, there'll be no place to maneuver.
    So the American ships ran away and the Russians continue to position forces ready if needed to kick Orc arse.
    I heard that the 2 USN DDGs r again sailing to the BS; if not, they could be kept on a stand by until the RN ships leave.
    Russian forces are moving forward because Ukrainian forces are moving forward... if Biden wants Putin to pull his forces back he needs to get Zelensky to pull Kievs troops back as stipulated in the Minsk agreements.
    the US wants to provoke Russia & uses Ukrainian officials & mil. movements, so she may be labeled as the aggressor, but Russia may go all the way & take a lot more than they anticipate. Putin is a bandit & will not hesitate to act pre-emptively with an overwhelming force.
    They wont be targeting the general population,..
    the risk to kill many civilians is great in any land campaign.
    I heard of an account about how Putin told Yanukovych that if he signed a deal with the EU, several of his regions will be taken. He ended up not signing & got overthrown.
    Fantastic spin... now it is Putins fault that Yanukovych got overthrown...
    it's not a spin: that's how any sane Czar/Emperor would act;
    Yanukovych would have lost the next election anyway, but the EU & US rushed things to get their way & to get Russia out of the way in Ukraine.
    There is no way Putin could foresee that after a US instigated coup in the Ukraine that Kiev would be so stupid as to alienate its own people by demanding they stop speaking Russian,..
    the main points r the economy & defense, not language: the areas he threatened to take, & once taken, would weaken Kiev & strengthen Moscow if the EU got established in the rest of Ukraine. Look at the map of Novorossiya.
    I live in New Zealand and I speak English but I don't consider myself to be English or British, or even European despite ethnically being of european descent.
    so, u r a creole that went native; but w/o colonization/immigration, u wouldn't be there. The Ukrainian nationalism is strong in the W. Ukraine; the rest is culturally Russian or Russified, & the folks there would be happy with an autonomy, just like the Republic of Crimea is now.
    back then, Yeltsin was against recreating the USSR; he wanted all the other former 14 republics to be off Russia's back;
    as the saying goes: "a woman off the cart, easier for the mare".
    Putin demonstrates the same common sense.
    not anymore: Russia is a lot stronger now to demand her lost lands & populations back. That's not the same as recreating the USSR as it was in 1991.
    those who left the USSR should have left with only lands they had when joining it. Hint: Russia gave a lot of her own lands to them that they now claim as theirs, & there r Ms of ethnic Russians on those lands.
    Is he wrong?
    from his perspective, of course not!
    he won't be doing any fighting himself, & has no sons to loose like Stalin & Mao did. His 3 daughters, (2 legitimate, 1 not) r not subjects to conscription, even during full mobilization.
    By that logic he should be rushing from war to war... he has nothing to lose... except if he cared about all Russians and Russia itself...
    he can loose his head if he bites more than he can chew. Even the US/NATO couldn't win in the ME, Africa & Afghanistan; Russia doesn't need to repeat their & USSR's mistakes.
    not anymore, it's a former friend turned hostile after the Western directed coup.
    It is both.... it is on Russias border and can never be not Russias neighbour... neither can move house and change that.
    that's why the present status quo is outdated, & the border separating them will be soon re-drown, like with Finland in 1938-9.  
    Russia in its current form won't allow it, as she wasn't going to allow Georgia in NATO.
    What do you expect her to do to stop that?
    I doubt NATO will admit them, as they r useful already, w/o any obligations & risks. That said, their close relations can be mitigated by truncation. The last time the Baltic Fleet landing ships went to the Med. & BS was in 2014; they & 2 NF BDKs + the armor & troops from Siberia wouldn't be going there again now just for the planned exercises.
    Putin just effectively closed the Azov Sea to Ukraine form the BS, & it looks like he'll soon take her Azov Sea coast as well. If not soon, later she'll loose her BS coast too.
    He has closed it off to prevent more Syrian and Turkish mercs from arriving... he also said the blockade is temporary and will likely stop when NSII is complete.
    it's also to prevent the Ukr. Navy from reinforcing her Azov Flotilla. The trap has closed! He can extend the blockade as needed.  The current situation is especially worrisome for three main reasons. First, the Caspian Flotilla ships are back. Second, the FSB vessels that had been in the Sea of Azov are now acting in direct support of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (Svobodnaya Pressa, April 19). And third, what Moscow is doing in the Sea of Azov could provide direct support to a land invasion.
    it's an artificial state like Yugoslavia & Asto-Hungary were; u can find their printed maps only in history books, enciclopedias & archives now.
    So is EU and US and Australia for that matter. Does not mean breakup is inevitable.
    Ukraine's longest land border is with Russia, & the latter already taken big chunks of her territory from out of Kiev's control. Putin or his successor will make the implosion easier. It's not over yet!
    that would be their & those countries' problem.
    But what if it causes those countries to break up... a domino effect...
    Putin won't care if it doesn't effect RF security.
    Ukraine exports a lot of produce to Russia.
    No it doesn't.
    check this:
    https://www.worldstopexports.com/ukraines-top-10-exports/
    not only Ukr. army would be invading Russia;
    If you mean Syrian Mercs and Turk Mercs then cannon fodder for artillery.
    If you mean HATO forces then tactical nukes would be justified to deal with an attack by HATO.
    there may also be some anti-Putin Russians flocking to Ukraine & then infiltrating back; a hybrid war isn't fought with nukes.
    no, it would be the Russian civilians suffering from foreign occupation.
    You actually think a Ukrainian force could make it to Russian territory....
    I was speaking in general terms, not specific to only Ukraine. Geography is the same now as it was in 1612, 1812, 1918 & 1941: Western invasions/interventions happened with regularity & the next 1 may happen in our lifetime, if it's not prevented by Russia's actions.
    You have an opinion and I have mine.
    it would be more informed if u swallowed ur pride & read/watched all the elevant open source materials.
    the Russian passports are more to get Russia at their backs to help them if needed...
    & to defend them from the Ukr. genocidal policies; protecting those citizens can be done  by annexing those territories.

    "To combat the aggression of the Russian Federation" - the United States allocated $155M to Ukraine
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3248315.html

    Southern Military District maneuvers in the region promise to be long



    Withdrawal of the army from the border with Ukraine and the end of the exercises: what does this mean and how is Russia's strategy?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-invade-ukraine-who-win-military-2021-4


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:41 am; edited 11 times in total (Reason for editing : add links)
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:23 am

    The Russian army with the help of a shock fist expanded the front with Ukraine to 2 thousand kilometers

    Most, if not all of the ships, armor, & other deployed/relocated gear will stay in place; at least some of the  aircraft, sailors & troops will also stay.

    Shvets to Gordon about the struggle in the Kremlin, Putin's trip with Shoigu to the taiga and whether there will be a war with Russia


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:01 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:14 pm

    it will create more internal instability & resentment, just like the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Do many/most NZders have close relatives in Australia? Ks & Ms of people in many parts of Ukraine have close relatives in all of Russia, not even counting ~10M of migrant workers.

    The feelings of the Ukraine and Ukrainians are meaningless to Russia and Russians.

    You claim there are strong ties and links to Russia in the Ukraine, well Kiev has been doing its best the last 30 years cutting those links including murdering Ukrainians who showed any sympathy or support for Russia... lots of poor countries send workers to all sorts of countries for work to earn a living... do you think they love the countries they have to go for and work like slaves to send money home to family?

    No obvious love I can see.

    Even if there were no ethnic Russian majority, Putin would still take Crimea, as it's too valuable to be let go & is pivotal to the control of the Black Sea .

    So why is he waiting for the Donbass, or just all of the Ukraine... you keep saying Russia needs it and it is critical to Russia going forward, why doesn't he act the way the west claims and just take it... Kievs military have said they might be able to take the Donbass but no chance of the Russias react with force, so even they know they would be crushed.

    What is stopping him?

    Except that you are wrong.

    In 2014, its population was smaller than now & being authoritarian, Putin could care less; most of those who were against the annexation either left or too intimidated to say/do anything about it.

    Wow, you say that, but how often have you visited? I am not there either can I make shit up about what is happening there too?

    they'll be known to their fellow soldiers & commanders who will neutralize them before any surrender.

    How convenient that that would happen and no shooting at all would be needed.

    Perhaps you need to draw up a plan of attack and send it to Putin personally... when he realises it can be done without any bloodshed he might just do it.... hell he could even keep going right to the English channel maybe.... the EU leadership in Brussels might start making sense when their severed heads are on the ends of poles on the walls of the building they talk shit from every day.

    no, he is not: it's a calculated & gradual tightening of the noose around Putin's regime neck. If all the sanctions were applied at once, there'll be no place to maneuver.

    Of course... creepy joe is a master... that is why Putin allowed him to be elected...

    I heard that the 2 USN DDGs r again sailing to the BS; if not, they could be kept on a stand by until the RN ships leave.

    So they don't know what they are doing... I can see why you think Creepy Joe is an artist.

    Putin is a bandit & will not hesitate to act pre-emptively with an overwhelming force.

    Like he has done so many times before.... NOT.

    Russian forces inside Russian territory is Russias business.

    Yanukovych would have lost the next election anyway, but the EU & US rushed things to get their way & to get Russia out of the way in Ukraine.

    Why would Russia give a shit about who is in charge of the Ukraine... there were no pro Russia parties in the country... Yanuk wasn't pro Russia... he just recognised their deal as being better for the Ukraine than the rubbish deal the EU was offering.... they couldn't polish a turd so they brutally overthrew the regime and inserted one filled with Nazis, and then blamed Russia for it.... hilarious... but only from a non Orc perspective.

    the main points r the economy & defense, not language:

    Not, the main point is that the americans in charge of the Ukraine demanded everything Russian be eliminated from the Ukraine including the language.

    UKRAINIANS objected so the Ukrainians in Kiev started to murder them.... the Americans in charge destroyed the Ukraine economy and ruined their defences and continue to order Ukrainians to murder Ukrainians they see as pro Russia but are just not so keen on the west.... and who could blame them.

    If the rebels in teh donbass really were Russians with Russian units fighting for them then they could have held a quick referendum and joined the Russian Federation... Russian troops could then enter legally and do to the donbass what was done in the Crimea, but the Donbass isn't Russian and isn't Russia... people are getting Russian citizenship but given the chance would probably be more effective to get American citizenship instead to stop the shelling.

    They don't seem to want to join Russia any more than they want to join the US... they just want their government in Kiev to stop murdering them with artillery.

    so, u r a creole that went native;

    No, I don't consider myself Maori, I am a New Zealander. I know where my ancestors came from but have no wish to go back or for them to come here.

    Maori originated in the Pacific Islands too but consider themselves to be Maori and not Pacific Islander and they have no urge to travel back to the islands or for those Islands to come and rule here.

    not anymore: Russia is a lot stronger now to demand her lost lands & populations back.

    Russia is never going to invade to take land... or they would have invaded the baltic states over their abuse of their Russian populations years ago.

    The fact is that they will take steps to help foreign Russian populations, but that will generally mean sending planes to bring them back if there is a war or disease or whatever most of the time.

    he can loose his head if he bites more than he can chew.

    The west has been trying to take that head off for quite some time now... he is smart enough to never try to bite something too big and spit out what tastes too foul to chew.

    that's why the present status quo is outdated, & the border separating them will be soon re-drown, like with Finland in 1938-9.

    No need to redraw anything... Kiev needs to be taught how to treat its subjects... whether that lesson comes from the people of the Donbass, or from Putin... it sure as hell wont come from the west, because abusing your own population comes as second nature to those censored It is hilarious what they accuse Putin of doing to poor innocent vulnerable Russians when Baltic States and Ukraine are way worse to their Russian population.... they get a free pass.

    Just shows the west wants to criticise Putin and could care less about Russian people.

    Ukraine's longest land border is with Russia, & the latter already taken big chunks of her territory from out of Kiev's control. Putin or his successor will make the implosion easier. It's not over yet!

    Kiev and the illegal US funded coup is what created the entire situation. Putin responded but was never in any position to do what he has done without the total incompetence of the west and their stupid inept moves that have ended up breaking the Ukraine and making its population poorer than they were.

    check this:

    So far most of the trade between Russia and the Ukraine has been clumsily stopped by Kiev as a political statement... if the Ukraine joins HATO or the EU you can expect that to be stopped from Russias side as EU trade restrictions will be applied from both sides.

    there may also be some anti-Putin Russians flocking to Ukraine & then infiltrating back; a hybrid war isn't fought with nukes.

    Years in the US Navy have honed your military skills to a fine edge haven't they?

    Why would anti putin Russians go to the Ukraine so they can sneak into Russia.... they are already in Russia and don't have to enter a potential war zone and then try to get through a line of conflict to get where they started from....

    it would be more informed if u swallowed ur pride & read/watched all the elevant open source materials.

    Your sources are western sources, I would learn more watching grass grow.

    All I would learn would be about how evil and bitter and twisted the west is, because all the evil and bitter things they say putin is and is doing is stuff they do all the time... all of them, but they put forward little to no evidence that Putin does it too... it just makes him look good and them look bad.

    & to defend them from the Ukr. genocidal policies; protecting those citizens can be done by annexing those territories.

    Putin wont annex, but if Kiev wont talk and deal with the region then their only option would be a referendum and probably to begin with a request for autonomy from the Ukraine. I don't think immediate membership of the RF would be on the table unless Kiev did something really really stupid. They would likely go for autonomy and ask for Russian peacekeepers to help ensure their security from hostile Kiev on their border.

    After a few years they might have a referendum and request membership of the Russian federation, but with open trade and protection from Kiev I doubt they would need it.


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