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    Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes

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    mnztr

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    Post  mnztr Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:29 pm

    So Ukraine is pouring troops and tanks to the line of contact, Russia is pouring armour and troops into Crimea, Black Sea subs are going to sea and 2 Burkes are headed to the Black Sea. Anyone feeling uneasy? Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes - Page 5 1f62c Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes - Page 5 1f62c
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:56 am

    At the end of March, the media reported on the escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The OSCE recorded a tenfold increase in the number of ceasefire violations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that at least eight Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war zone since March 26. According to The New York Times, Russia has deployed about 4,000 troops and military equipment to the border with Ukraine. On April 8, President Zelensky arrived in Donbass on a working visit to meet with the Ukrainian military. On April 9, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia Dmitry Kozak called Ukraine's actions in Donbass a PR move against the backdrop of a fall in Zelensky's rating, and also said that if Kiev starts hostilities in Donbass, it will be the “beginning of the end” of Ukraine. How Ukraine became Putin's fix idea
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:27 pm

    The main goal of the Kremlin is to blackmail the new American administration and the EU countries. Putin will speculate with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, says political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky. Will the situation come to a large-scale military invasion? Should we expect a really tough reaction from Western countries?
    A major war is real
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:35 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:The main goal of the Kremlin is to blackmail the new American administration and the EU countries. Putin will speculate with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, says political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky. Will the situation come to a large-scale military invasion? Should we expect a really tough reaction from Western countries?
    A major war is real

    Who is this clown?

    I hope not "Dr. Preobrazhensky" from the old mp.net forums, who was always talking up Lvov's cheese festivals attended by foreign visitors

    Why would Moscow try for an adventure a couple months from Nord Stream II's completion? Blackmail about what?

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:40 pm

    Why did Moscow take Crimea before those 2 Mistral UDKs were handed over to her?


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:45 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    Post  lancelot Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:03 pm

    I am certain the Western sponsored coup in Ukraine and the threat of Sevastopol becoming a NATO naval base had nothing to do with it.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:14 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Why did Moscow take Crimea before those 2 Mistral UDKs were handed over to her?

    Because that's when the coup in Kiev happened and the circumstances at that point demanded it

    Today there's the same situation in a way, Kiev is gearing up for an offensive against the Donbass. In this case it would again force Moscow's hand along with whatever 'blackmail' of Europe, and Nord Stream 2 would certainly become a victim of that new situation.

    But if Kiev doesn't go through with it, there will be no Russian anything, and the Russian elites can look forward to making more money instead with no added headaches. Magic.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:26 pm

    Russia may use a false flag provocation & invade; in any case, this is the beginning of the end of the status quo.
    Time will tell how it plays out.
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    Post  mnztr Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:36 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Why would Moscow try for an adventure a couple months from Nord Stream II's completion? Blackmail about what?

    Exactly.This is Ukraines desparate gamble to kill Nord Stream 2 and its cash cow of transit fees. With NS2 in place Russia can demand Ukraine pay its gas bill or cut them off. Ukraine has plenty of gas potential. Dunno why they don't start exploit them. They have over 1T cubic m of natural gas. If they stopped dicking around with some fantasy of Russia giving Crimea back and end their civil war they can get on with life.
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:46 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Russia may use a false flag provocation & invade; in any case, this is the beginning of the end of the status quo.
    Time will tell how it plays out.

    To what benefit would the Kremlin make such a calculation, and invade?

    Russia's economy is doing marvelously by the standards of most of Europe, and the same Ukraine. It's selling the Sputnik V vaccine around the world and steadily increasing its soft-power and prestige. It's about to get a finished pipeline that will bring in tons more money and enable them to cut off Kiev's chief income source further deepening its woes, all without firing a shot.

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:29 am

    To what benefit would the Kremlin make such a calculation, and invade?
    to stop Kiev's further integration into NATO & its access to bases in Ukraine on liberated territory, improve Crimea's water supply, lift the siege of Russian troops in Transnistria, cut off Ukraine from the Black/Azov Seas, cut off Turkey from Ukraine, increase RF population, seize ports/shipyards/airports/bases, the Kharkov tank plant, & Kiev Antonov plant.
    10 Caspian Flotilla ships transit to Azov Sea:
    The Russian Navy is sending 10 vessels, a mixture of landing craft and small gunboats, from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. The deployment is ostensibly part of a larger series of readiness drills, but comes amid a continuing and worrisome Russian military buildup near the country's borders with Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, has also said there has been a spike in GPS jamming in the region, which has impacted its ability to monitor the situation as part of an existing agreement between Russia and Ukraine. All of this only further fuels concerns that a significant escalation in the conflict between these two countries may be imminent.
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40103/russian-gunboats-head-to-the-black-sea-to-join-troop-buildup-near-ukraine

    “Everything suggests that Russia is preparing for a military incursion into Ukraine,” tweeted Sunday Anders Aslund, author of the book Russia's Crony Capitalism. “Putin always keeps his options open, but both the military moves & the Kremlin propaganda indicate that Russian military aggression is near,” he added.
    https://www.voanews.com/europe/what-russia-wants-ukraine
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    Post  lancelot Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:50 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:to stop Kiev's further integration into NATO & its access to bases in Ukraine on liberated territory, improve Crimea's water supply, lift the siege of Russian troops in Transnistria, cut off Ukraine from the Black/Azov Seas, cut off Turkey from Ukraine, increase RF population, seize ports/shipyards/airports/bases, the Kharkov tank plant, & Kiev Antonov plant.

    Can you even join NATO if you are in a state of active war? With Zelensky's declaration of wanting to get Crimea back into the fold this would be the case.
    Russia already has Crimea and Sevastopol which basically allows them to control the Black Sea. The Azov Sea is already bottled up at the Kerch Strait.

    With regards to Ukrainian ports or shipyards they are so dilapidated it would cost an insane amount of money to get them working properly again. By which point you might as well build new facilities. Russia already can't use its existing shipyards efficiently as it is, or keep them fed with orders, how would adding more dilapidated shipyards help this?

    As for the Kharkov tank plant, Russia left the Omsk tank plant idle and near dead for years as it was. What makes you think they need Kharkov which hasn't been upgraded properly and hasn't built a large order of tanks in decades? With regards to Antonov it is redundant with existing Russian production facilities which are not even being used up properly. At best you would absorb the design staff assuming they were left.

    You could make an argument for Motor-Sich but in 3 years Russia itself will have the capacity to build better products than ones they had an advantage building. Russia has already replaced the VK-2500 and Al-222 engine production. They are in the stage of prototype or component testing for the VK-800, PD-8, PD-35. By which point none of their engines will have an advantage.


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    Post  mnztr Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:56 am

    Antonov at this point has zero value to Russia and going that close to Kiev means they will have to take all of Ukraine, also they have lots of tanks and tank manufactring capacity. As for water, yes its desirable, but with NS2 they will be able to blackmail Ukraine into selling them water for Crimea and besides, they have infrastructure projects underway to deal with this Russia has sufficient port facilities
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:10 am

    Can you even join NATO if you are in a state of active war?
    no, but US uses NATO to help Ukraine against RF, & uses Ukraine to weaken & destabilize Russia, as well as its airspace to spy on her. for all of the above, Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO, & her military can be trained & equipped along the NATO lines, like Georgia's, so her troops could be sent to help NATO anywhere.
    With regards to Ukrainian ports or shipyards they are so dilapidated it would cost an insane amount of money to get them working properly again.
    they r still building /repairing boats for the Ukr. Navy, so taking them will stop that & BSF boats could at least be repaired there too.
    What makes you think they need Kharkov which hasn't been upgraded properly and hasn't built a large order of tanks in decades?
    so that the Ukr. Army won't have access to it & the tanks there now.
    With regards to Antonov it is redundant with existing Russian production facilities..
    at least taking it would deny the UkrAF repair & production of aircraft. 3 AN-178s r being built there now.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:16 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    To what benefit would the Kremlin make such a calculation, and invade?
    to stop Kiev's further integration into NATO & its access to bases in Ukraine on liberated territory, improve Crimea's water supply, lift the siege of Russian troops in Transnistria, cut off Ukraine from the Black/Azov Seas, cut off Turkey from Ukraine, increase RF population, seize ports/shipyards/airports/bases, the Kharkov tank plant, & Kiev Antonov plant.

    All excellent reasons of course

    But why now, 2 months before Nord Stream 2 is finished

    Which of course, is more valuable than some dilapidated shipyards and factories
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:59 am

    ..but with NS2 they will be able to blackmail Ukraine into selling them water for Crimea and besides, they have infrastructure projects underway to deal with this..
    Kiev said it won't allow water supply until Crimea is returned; it'll cost $Bs on desalination plants, & there is not enough ground water already.

    All excellent reasons of course
    But why now, 2 months before Nord Stream 2 is finished
    the buildup will continue till May, then they'll exercise & decide what to do next, depending on the evolving situation. NATO won't fight for Ukraine & the EU needs Nord Stream 2, whether Ukraine & the US like it or not.
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    Post  Backman Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:58 am

    mnztr wrote:Antonov at this point has zero value to Russia and going that close to Kiev means they will have to take all of Ukraine, also they have lots of tanks and tank manufactring capacity. As for water, yes its desirable, but with NS2 they will be able to blackmail Ukraine into selling them water for Crimea and besides, they have infrastructure projects underway to deal with this  Russia has sufficient port facilities

    Given enough time , anything of capital value from Antonov will find its way onto trailers and into Russia. Along with the specialists that used to work there.

    Any industry remotely complex in Ukraine cannot survive without fluid trade with Russia.

    The kicker is that its shut out of Chinese money too.

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    Post  Backman Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:06 am

    Ukraine lost 45 billion dollars over 10 years for losing Crimea just on rent for the base.

    Putin quote after the base renewal 10 years ago "No military base in the world costs that much. Prices like that simply do not exist. If we look at what the contract would cost us over ten years, it amounts to forty to $40-45 billion,” Putin revealed."We could build several bases like that with this money."

    https://www.rt.com/news/sevastopol-russian-black-sea/

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    Post  mnztr Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:16 am

    Backman wrote:Ukraine lost 45 billion dollars over 10 years for losing Crimea just on rent for the base.

    Putin quote after the base renewal 10 years ago "No military base in the world costs that much. Prices like that simply do not exist. If we look at what the contract would cost us over ten years, it amounts to forty to $40-45 billion,” Putin revealed."We could build several bases like that with this money."

    https://www.rt.com/news/sevastopol-russian-black-sea/

    Yes now they can spend all that money on desalination plants, new bridge, awesome hotels etc etc.

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    Post  mnztr Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:20 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Kiev said it won't allow water supply until Crimea is returned; it'll cost $Bs on desalination plants, & there is not enough ground water already.

    Kiev also said (the comedian) that he would end the civil war. I am sure if Russia forces Ukranine to pay back the 3B by upping the gas price to include debt repayment, ...or agree to sell water at a resonable price, they will capitulate. Russia can also lock them out of the sea of Azov. Soooo many levers. It may not really be necessary in the end, Russia has found some large fresh water resources in the sea of Azov and is boring wells. Also the sea of azov itself has very low salinity and thus desalinization would be very effective and inexpensive.
    Short of hell freezing over Crimea will remain Russian and its not likely that Ukraine will ever establish full soverignity over the Donbass. They have disenfranchised those citizens, many of them have Russian passports now, and the longer they keep jerking around the less likely they will be able to keep these territories.

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:48 am

    To me it looks like they've decided to liberate at least some of the Novorossiya before Ukrainian mil. gets stronger & closer to NATO.
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33787/air-force-reveals-b-1bs-were-practicing-decapitating-russias-black-sea-fleet-last-week
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:11 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:To me it looks like they've decided to liberate at least some of the Novorossiya before Ukrainian mil. gets stronger & closer to NATO.
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33787/air-force-reveals-b-1bs-were-practicing-decapitating-russias-black-sea-fleet-last-week

    That's possible

    The situation is constantly evolving and Moscow may be privy to some information that we're not

    But on the whole I'm still quite convinced that Moscow wants to avoid a war, and avoid Kiev relaunching one most crucially. And all of this is just sabre rattling to that end.

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    Post  GarryB Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:00 pm

    The main goal of the Kremlin is to blackmail the new American administration and the EU countries. Putin will speculate with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, says political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky. Will the situation come to a large-scale military invasion? Should we expect a really tough reaction from Western countries?

    Just ridiculous.... Russia is moving troops to the border because the Ukraine is mobilising conscripts and sending them forward into front line positions.... the Kremlin is hardly blackmailing anyone, they are reacting to morons... and the supporters of those morons are claiming it is all about Russian aggression... peaceful Kiev is not doing anything and big bad Russia is building up forces on land and at sea and threatening the peace and utopia that is the Ukraine, while violating Ukranian territory in the form of Russian troops in the Crimea.

    Who cares what reaction the west decides to go with... when Ukrainian troops are moving to front positions then Russia.... being a neighbour is obliged to do the same... just in case Kiev does something stupid like the Tie Eater of Georgia did 13 odd years ago. He thought he was protected by the west and under cover of the olympic games too...

    Didn't work out then and wont likely work out now, but that wont stop Kiev from doing something stupid and the west complaining about Russian over reactions to countries murdering people.

    Why did Moscow take Crimea before those 2 Mistral UDKs were handed over to her?

    Moscow allowed the Crimea to join the Russian federation when the Crimea voted to join. The orders for Mistral class ships, or north stream II gas pipelines have nothing to do with it. It is the west that ties all sorts of other shit to things.

    I am certain the Western sponsored coup in Ukraine and the threat of Sevastopol becoming a NATO naval base had nothing to do with it.

    In Russian law making the Crimea part of the Russian Federation gave Russia the right to use force to defend them from anyone trying to take them by force.

    Such protection is worth 1,000 Mistral ships.

    Besides... they got a damn good look at them inside and out and are now building their own replacements... and they got their money back and are making money selling components and helicopters to Egypt.

    In this case it would again force Moscow's hand along with whatever 'blackmail' of Europe, and Nord Stream 2 would certainly become a victim of that new situation.

    But the west... US and EU... don't realise that the destruction of the NS II project is a win for Russia anyway... it is not critical to Russias economy that Germany and Europe get cheap reliable gas supplies.... I am sure a driving aspect of the NS II is to be able to pipe gas to Kaliningrad without it having to go through the Ukraine.

    An end to NS II means they could just complete the pipes to Kaliningrad so that Russian territory gets cheap gas without needing transit fees paid to any other country, and the EU can just hope the Ukraine does not do anything silly like cut gas supply or steal gas.

    Russia has spent billions trying to get them safe reliable pipes to supply their gas and the EU and US have sabotaged it at every step.

    The EU can pay LNG rates, which slows down delivery and massively increases costs, but it does mean Russia could then send that gas to the highest bidder with no fixed contracts practical.

    The EU is going to have to spend a lot more on gas energy, but I am sure their greenies will be happy about that.

    This new attack would repeat the Mistral scandal, but then the Russians didn't really suffer much from that... by now they would have two Mistrals in service but not enough frigates and destroyers to escort them... by 2022 they will probably have ordered their third and fourth ships, but those wont be happening now.

    A huge delay but I don't think they would suffer from not having these ships in service right now, though the experience would be useful, it is not the end of the world.

    Starting a conflict and going super sanction on Russia would be another blessing in disguise... it means Russia will earn more for gas sales to the EU and the EU will pay more for energy... it might be enough of a jolt for them to question why they do as the US tells them and that maybe HATO gets them into more trouble than it actually gets them out of... but no one can tell them that sort of thing... they have to work it out for themselves.

    Not having their eurobitches in tow on everything might be a bit of a shock to the US too... maybe we need this to happen to create the multipolar world where the EU stops being USA-B team and starts thinking and acting for itself... or maybe they are suffering post colonial power trip syndrome and want their kids to look after them till they die.

    Russia may use a false flag provocation & invade; in any case, this is the beginning of the end of the status quo.
    Time will tell how it plays out.

    Russia does not benefit in a conflict, it creates enormous risks with very little in the way of potential to gain for Russia.

    That does not matter to the west.... they will fuck over a country just for fun to see what happens.

    This is Ukraines desparate gamble to kill Nord Stream 2 and its cash cow of transit fees.

    Which suggests the obvious solution of the Russians stating that any conflict starts up in the Ukraine and Russia will deem it an unsafe transit country and stop all transfers of gas and all transit payments will cease... and contracts with aggressor states will become null and void.

    With NS2 in place Russia can demand Ukraine pay its gas bill or cut them off.

    Not really... unless the south pipes and north pipes operate at full capacity they can't cut off the Ukraine pipes very easily.

    It is 50 and 30 for the new north and south pipes while the ukraine is something like 180, and demand is growing.

    Shutting down transit of gas through the Ukraine is not a good solution for Russia.... remember it is the EU that pays the transit fees.... not Russia.

    Dunno why they don't start exploit them. They have over 1T cubic m of natural gas. If they stopped dicking around with some fantasy of Russia giving Crimea back and end their civil war they can get on with life.

    They expect mother to solve their problems... even after leaving home and claiming to be adopted...

    It's about to get a finished pipeline that will bring in tons more money and enable them to cut off Kiev's chief income source further deepening its woes, all without firing a shot.

    Honestly if the Ukraine don't play silly buggers with their pipeline there is no need to cut them off. They make money on the gas going past them, but Russia makes more money and the EU are paying the bill.

    to stop Kiev's further integration into NATO

    They are already a sort of part of HATO, there are HATO troops there and it is only a matter of time before HATO bases are set up.

    In time of conflict they would be sitting ducks and destroyed in hours, so their existence would be meaningless.

    improve Crimea's water supply,

    They are working on permanent solutions there already.

    lift the siege of Russian troops in Transnistria,

    How far are you expecting them to go?

    If they want to do all that then when Georgia invaded South Ossetia then why didn't Russian forces over run all of Georgia down to Armenia and NK and solve that problem too while they were there?

    cut off Ukraine from the Black/Azov Seas, cut off Turkey from Ukraine,

    No benefit for Russia there... the Ukraine is a basket case... cutting off their legs will only create more problems for Russia in the future.

    Besides why would all these people accept Russian rule, they don't seem to be asking for it and who is going to pay for their cities and infrastructure to be fixed and upgraded?

    The EU and US broke it... let them pay such bills.

    increase RF population,

    Create hostile population inside the RF... no thanks.

    seize ports/shipyards/airports/bases, the Kharkov tank plant, & Kiev Antonov plant.

    Broken worn out useless... would cost more to bring up to ordinary than to flatten them and build new ones from scratch... and building new ports and production facilities in Russia is vastly more cost effective and productive.

    “Everything suggests that Russia is preparing for a military incursion into Ukraine,” tweeted Sunday Anders Aslund, author of the book Russia's Crony Capitalism. “Putin always keeps his options open, but both the military moves & the Kremlin propaganda indicate that Russian military aggression is near,” he added.

    Well if Aslund says it is true... who am I to argue with the fictional lion king in the Narnia books....

    Can you even join NATO if you are in a state of active war?

    They wont say because the true answer might stop him doing something stupid that is in HATOs interests but no one elses.

    no, but US uses NATO to help Ukraine against RF, & uses Ukraine to weaken & destabilize Russia, as well as its airspace to spy on her.

    Except Russia isn't destabilised, or weakened... they are happy to move their forces within their own territory to deal with anything Kiev could manage...

    Russia could be a very useful ally around the world to the US and EU, but they choose instead to make them an enemy... Putin can't stop them doing that but he can be the best enemy they ever had by not falling for their obvious provocations, and kicking them in the balls nice and hard every time they are stupid enough to present them.

    If he wasn't any good at that they wouldn't hate him the way they do.

    Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO, & her military can be trained & equipped along the NATO lines, like Georgia's, so her troops could be sent to help NATO anywhere.

    Which they are... and the benefits of being able to fight and die in Afghanistan or some other shit hole, but without any protections or perks offered by membership...

    they r still building /repairing boats for the Ukr. Navy, so taking them will stop that & BSF boats could at least be repaired there too.

    The Ukrainian Navy is a token force that is no threat to anyone... except itself.

    so that the Ukr. Army won't have access to it & the tanks there now.

    It would be easier to target and kill three Ukrainian soldiers in a T-64 than try to locate them as individuals on the battlefield and shoot them.

    at least taking it would deny the UkrAF repair & production of aircraft. 3 AN-178s r being built there now.

    Assuming they will be finished, they are no threat to Russia, and certainly not worth an invasion into hostile territory.

    But why now, 2 months before Nord Stream 2 is finished

    Obviously as you know, because this is not Putins war, it is HATOs last gasp attempt to stop NSII from being completed.

    If it was Putins war he would obviously wait till NSII was finished and up and running.

    Which of course, is more valuable than some dilapidated shipyards and factories

    And the large hostile population you need to get on board with your occupation of their territory.

    Kiev said it won't allow water supply until Crimea is returned; it'll cost $Bs on desalination plants, & there is not enough ground water already.

    The infrastructure in most big cities cost billions of dollars... spending a billion dollars or more to ensure supply for fresh water for the next 100 years is peanuts... countries in the Middle East would be jealous how cheap that is.

    the buildup will continue till May, then they'll exercise & decide what to do next, depending on the evolving situation. NATO won't fight for Ukraine & the EU needs Nord Stream 2, whether Ukraine & the US like it or not.

    Which ignores the fact that the force build up started in the Ukraine first and Russian forces mobilised as a reaction so how the hell can it be Putins plan?

    Ukraine lost 45 billion dollars over 10 years for losing Crimea just on rent for the base.

    Bloody good of them to mistreat the local population and essentially hand it to Russia like that.

    Are they about to make the same mistake again in the Donbass?

    They are dumb enough.

    To me it looks like they 've decided to liberate at least some of the Novorossiya before Ukrainian mil. gets stronger & closer to NATO.

    Believing western propaganda sources to try to work out what Putin will or will not do is your most obvious mistake.

    But on the whole I'm still quite convinced that Moscow wants to avoid a war, and avoid Kiev relaunching one most crucially. And all of this is just sabre rattling to that end.

    It is the comedian that makes the final decision... if he makes a tie eater mistake the of course Putin will pounce... why would he not?

    The Comedian agreed to solve the problems peacefully... if he uses force he breaks the Minks agreements... so Russia can do as it pleases, so why not do what is in its interests... push the Kiev forces back out of Donbass territory like they did in South Ossetia, but with a much more capable and better equipped and trained force, supporting a more capable and better equipped and trained force against idiots who thought HATO were going to save them.

    Secure the territory and then organise a referendum for the local people to freely and fairly decide their own future, whether that is talk to Kiev, become independent, or join the Russian federation.... perhaps two referendums might be done... one immediately to decide whether to sever ties with the Ukraine and whether to open trade and relations with the RF.... and then in a couple of years time whether to join the RF or remain separate.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:09 pm

    They are already a sort of part of HATO, there are HATO troops there and it is only a matter of time before HATO bases are set up. In time of conflict they would be sitting ducks and destroyed in hours, so their existence would be meaningless.
    not if they r used by NATO aircraft, ships & IRBMs! The RF complains about NATO getting so close to its borders, particularly in Poland, why she should turn a blind eye on it staring at her from across the Ukrainian border?
    They are working on permanent solutions there already.
    w/o success since 2014; will it take another 7 years?

    lift the siege of Russian troops in Transnistria,
    How far are you expecting them to go?
    If they want to do all that then when Georgia invaded South Ossetia then why didn't Russian forces over run all of Georgia down to Armenia and NK and solve that problem too while they were there?
    they'll go as far as the circumstance allow. Unlike Georgia & Armenia, which r boxed in now, Ukraine is the strategic & crop producing real estate with large Russian speaking population.
    cut off Ukraine from the Black/Azov Seas, cut off Turkey from Ukraine, No benefit for Russia there... the Ukraine is a basket case... cutting off their legs will only create more problems for Russia in the future.
    no, more problems will be created by letting Ukraine be used by the West & Turkey.
    Besides why would all these people accept Russian rule, they don't seem to be asking for it and who is going to pay for their cities and infrastructure to be fixed and upgraded?
    they'll get autonomy & those not happy can leave to W. Ukraine or elsewhere, just like those in Crimea. If I was still in Odessa, I would chose Moscow over Kiev as my capital. The Ukrainian nationalists were killed many Jews & r now pushing their language & culture on every1 there. The Gasprom & the PRC have $Bs to invest there; Ms of people would still go to Russia for work & send $ to their folks back home.  
    The Ukrainian Navy is a token force that is no threat to anyone... except itself.
    they will arm those boats with AshMs that can't be ignored. Also, there is a huge arsenal at Kramatorsk that is worth taking; also 100s of tanks, etc. & the plant r worth $Ms, even if they r not all repaired & scrapped instead. An-178s can carry armed troops & vehicles; they could also be used as bombers.
    I was expecting this: 15 Russian warships set off for the Black Sea

    Only two weeks ago, three large Russian Baltic Fleet landing ships, accompanied by a corvette, sailed through the English Channel, heading for the Black Sea. Fleet transfers such as this give Moscow the potential for a “Normandy-style landing”, which analysts suggest could take place on Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline between Odessa and Mykolaiv in support of military operations along the Donbas land border.
    https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/world/drumbeats-war-building-across-russias-border-ukraine



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:57 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    franco
    franco

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    Post  franco Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:31 pm

    So you said one time that you had served in the US Navy. So these are the 15 boats going from the Caspian to the Black Sea, FFS they are not even ships and have very little combat use outside of the Volga River system.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12354276@egNews

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