ludovicense wrote:For me, this soy issue is nothing more than a letter of intent. I can't see Russia coming close to being a relevant supplier of soybeans. I don't think it's even possible to drastically increase production since it's a hot climate crop. Here in Brazil it is planted in the cerrado (equivalent to the African savannah, although it is not the same thing).
Some numbers from Brazilian agriculture can be a benchmark for Russian agriculture.
-Agribusiness exports totaled US$ 159.09 billion in 2022, up 32% over the previous year
-Grain harvest is estimated at 313 million tons driven by soy
-Soybean production in Brazil in 2022/23 should be 155 million tons, says consultancy
Russia has technology and a huge amount of land available to boost current numbers, which in my view are quite timid when compared to the potential that can be achieved.
Even more so considering that the "hungry" Asian market is on your side.
Russia has been exporting soybeans to China for a few years now, it's grown in the Primorye region which is right next to China. Although I would certainly agree that the potential here is ultimately limited as the population of farmers in the Russian Far East is not that large. So far some have invested into growing soybeans and thanks to that soybean production has been growing by 20-30% annually. Chinese demand makes its lucrative.
Maybe if Chinese farmers are brought into Russia to grow it on some of the currently fallow soil.
There was also a scheme being discussed between Russia and Uzbekistan a couple years ago about potentially bringing in 1-2 million Uzbeks to farm on fallow lands in Russia. Don't know what's happening with that.