Russian Agriculture News

In 2017 the export of agricultural products from Russia will exceed $20.5 billion

By the end of 2017 Russia will put abroad a record amount of agricultural products — a total of more than us $20.5 bn (in 2016 and $17 billion)

Such a forecast at the XVII annual conference on investments in agriculture "agricultural holdings of Russia — 2017" organized by the magazine "Agroinvestor", said the Director of the analytical center "Sovekon" Andrei Sizov. Exports, in his view, remains the main driver of growth of the agricultural sector. This year, despite an increase in production in many agricultural sectors, agriculture will add no more than 2-3%, he said.

"This is a good, but modest results, — said Sizov. — Especially in comparison with the previous figures. For example, last year the industry showed an increase of almost 5%." Among the main reasons for the slowdown — a stronger ruble and reduction of prices due to record harvest of basic grains. According to "SovEcon", most of the grain fell in the Volga region by 30-40%. In the Central regions of the country fell by about 20%, and in the South — 10-15%. At the same time the main beneficiaries of the situation in the current season will be the ports, elevators and carriers of grain, the expert believes. This will allow them to invest in the development of their business.

The growth of investment activity in agriculture in 2017 is also slowed down and may be only about 2%. The main problem of business stagnation of demand in the stabilization of consumers ' income. According to Sizov, a marked increase in food consumption should not be. "By world standards we already eat pretty good, he says. Global drivers of demand growth it is hard to see".

Although the volume of export of agricultural products increased, the share of Russia in world exports remains insignificant. The main Russian export commodity — grain occupies in the overall trade in the world only 6%. As for the other products, the share of our country's export of fish and oil is less than 3%, meal — about 2%, meat — less than 1%. The world's largest exporters at the end of 2016 — the United States and the European Union (more than $130 billion), and Brazil and China (over $60 billion). "Russia has something to strive", — said Sizov.

However, the growth rate of world trade in the next 10 years will decrease, the expert said. So, the forecast of FAO, the largest decline is expected for pork. If during the period 2005-2015, the export volume of this product in the world increased by 41%, in 2016-2026's growth of pork imports will not exceed 1%. Significantly reduced the rate of wheat from 68% to 10%, and poultry — from 60% to 14%. At the same time, pay attention Sizov, milk and dairy products will be stored a pretty good rate of 23.5% over the period 2016-2026, compared with 41% in 2005-2015.

http://agro2b.ru/en/news/46072-2017-godu-eksport-selhozprodukcii-prevysit-mlrd.html

Russian grain exports have shown a clear increasing trend over the last 10 years. Of course natural variability related
to weather is superimpose on this graphic but the underlying increase is definitely not noise.

miketheterrible wrote:I read that on sdelanounas.  I laughed.  These sanctions/counter sanctions are really doing wonders for Russia.  Surprised its GDP isn't growing much faster since all indicators are high now.

I think that Russia's GDP has been understated for the last 18+ years. Originally it served to keep NATO deciders ignorant about
Russia's revival. This may sound silly, but you can clearly see the pattern in the NATO fake stream media. It was writing Russia
off until 2014 and after. But now it is spreading hysteria about a "reviving Russia" (as if it was the USSR or something). Since
NATO deciders are idiots who drink their own propaganda koolaid, Russia is still playing the "weak" card to keep them complacent.
I do not think that it is that effective anymore, but the Russian leadership appears to think it is still worth it.

Another reason that the Russian GDP is not inflating as much is likely related to the large reduction of foreign borrowing and
the very large paydown of foreign debt after 2014. Both of these processes count as pure GDP loss. Paying down US$200
billion on a nominal US$1.2 trillion economy is substantial. It would amount to a 16.7% GDP drop if done in one year. Since
the 2015 recession in Russia was real and induced by the shock devaluation of the ruble in late 2014, we are looking at around
a 20% GDP loss spread out from 2014 onward. But if you look at the reported GDP loss it is much smaller, so substantial
growth has been hidden by the financial conditions.

Also, the GDP is a strange construct and seems to be blind to the sort of restructuring that Russia is undergoing. Import
substitution does not appear to be treated as a net gain for the Russian economy. This would be consistent with the idiotic
notion that foreign borrowing is a GDP positive contribution. So imports are treated like domestic production. Of course,
this is BS. The long term money loss offshore is totally ignored.

https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/hidden-growth-of-russian-gdp/

Russia’s Q1 GDP growth was 5.8%, but government reports 1.3%

Good timing

Putin calls to expand presence of Russian agricultural producers on domestic, int'l market

He recalled the growth of agricultural production in Russia by 20% over the past five years, which he called 'a real breakthrough'

MINERALNYE VODY, October 9. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin calls to steadily expand presence of domestic agricultural producers on internal and international markets of agricultural products.

"There is a need to consistently work on broadening presence of Russian producers on the domestic market and exploring foreign ones," the head of state said.

The growth of agricultural production in Russia by 20% over the past five years is a real breakthrough, the President said. "In recent years, the agro-industrial complex has shown a positive trend. Over 5 years, the volume of production has grown by more than 20%. This is what is called a breakthrough without any exaggeration," he said.

The Russian leader recalled that at the end of last year, the volume of export supplies of food and agricultural raw materials grew by 21%, exceeding $20 bln, which recently seemed absolutely incredible. Putin compared this figure with the export of arms, which today stands at $15 bln.

The president also noted that in the seven months of this year, agricultural exports grew by almost one third to $13 bln.

"Let me note that as far back as 20 years ago, Russia had to buy grain abroad, and today our country is the largest supplier of wheat, the largest in the world, and ranks second in the world in grain supplies in general," the Russian leader recalled. Speaking about the components of Russian exports of agricultural products, Putin noted that exports of sugar, vegetable oil, pork and poultry are increasing.

The head of state stressed that the transition of the country’s agricultural sector to the export model of the development proves that qualitative changes are taking place in the domestic agro-industrial complex. He added that Russian agriculture has reached a new level of sustainability and become less vulnerable to market fluctuations, and domestic food consumption is becoming less dependent on imports.


More:
http://tass.com/economy/1025222

Russia has captured more than half of the world’s wheat market in recent years, becoming the world’s biggest exporter of grain, thanks to bumper harvests and attractive pricing. In 2016, Russia became the world leader in wheat exports. Since the early 2000s, its share of the world wheat market has quadrupled.

On Thursday, Russian agricultural ministry raised the forecast of wheat exports for the current marketing year to 35 million metric tons. In late October, the ministry also increased projections for grain crop to 109 million metric tons from 105 million metric tons, citing improved conditions in Siberia. However, Russian producers managed to harvest 112.7 million tons of grain as of October 25.

https://www.rt.com/business/443543-russia-wheat-exports-fifty-surge/?fbclid=IwAR3ZUbbNptvqc7T8h0_V2JT15cKESakiLCv1ngaVKreUoZ5HKL6z6E_B6_M