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    Russian Economy General News: #1

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    Austin


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    Post  Austin Sun Jan 19, 2014 5:52 pm

    Thanks Hannibal ......Informative post.

    I am wondering why they are not doing these structural reforms espically for internal market.

    Another question do you think the huge reserves of Oil Gas and Diamond they say to have is good enough to make them rich ....most certainly they have a lot of these ?


    Some stastics I found here http://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/45166/

    Oil production per capita per year
    Norway - 40 tons
    Kuwait - 37 tons
    Saudi Arabia - 16 tons
    Azerbaijan - 6 tons
    Kazakhstan - 5 tons
    Russia - 3.5 tonnes
    While in Norway the most expensive gasoline in Europe. In Russia - the cheapest, not including Kazakhstan.
    zg18
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    Post  zg18 Sun Jan 19, 2014 10:59 pm

    Austin wrote:Thanks Hannibal ......Informative post.

    I am wondering why they are not doing these structural reforms espically for internal market.

    Who says they don`t? Actually , structural reforms kill short term growth but make economy more healthier and create space for more future growth.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:46 am

    GarryB wrote:The secret to corruption is to give it another name.

    Don't say you are having to bribe government officials to get them to do their jobs... call it a tip...

    Don't call big business spending enormous money bribing law makers to change laws to allow them to make more money or shut out a rival or pay almost no tax... call the person doing the bribery a lobbiest...

    Your right, for example the Pentagon doesn't say it stole +$8 trillion from the American people...they say they can't "account" for it:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/want-cut-government-waste-8-5-trillion-pentagon-142321339.html

    TR1
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    Post  TR1 Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:51 am

    No they didn't.

    That headline is sensationalist to be mild.

    The DOD budget is not audited...does not mean it was "stolen" or "dissapeared".

    That is DOD spending since 1996, of course its going to be a huge total figure.

    You guys think the Russia MOD accounts for its spending?

    LOL good lord no. How could they steal from the budget if it was totally transparent?

    And even if no stealing occured, they still sure as hell would not divulge where all the money goes.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:52 am

    TR1 wrote:No they didn't.

    That headline is sensationalist to be mild.

    The DOD budget is not audited...does not mean it was "stolen" or "dissapeared".

    That is DOD spending since 1996, of course its going to be a huge total figure.

    You guys think the Russia MOD accounts for its spending?

    LOL good lord no. How could they steal from the budget if it was totally transparent?

    And even if no stealing occured, they still sure as hell would not divulge where all the money goes.

    If all attempts to audit the Pentagon end up being blocked for all this time, one stands to wonder if the ones blocking the auditing stand to be implicated in criminal misconduct of some kind, the pentagon officials can have their due process that the U.S. bill of rights entitles them to (ironically they themselves don't believe the bill or rights has that power), they need to clear their names via the legal system. The ones who haven't committed any crimes should help to put the ones who are guilty behind bars. Lets put it in to context, we're dealing with trillions of tax dollars, the IRS knocks on the average Americans' front doors everyday threatening legal action like garnishing wages and imprisonment for not accounting for a couple of thousand dollars in taxes.

    If they're not guilty of stealing trillions, then they can have their day in court and prove their innocence, prosecutors drag US citizens to court every day over their tax dollars and they don't always get convictions for all the charges they throw at the defendants; like mentioned before people are dragged to criminal court for not accounting for exponentially less amounts of money, so why can't the Bonapartists be held to the same standard?
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:24 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:I had a good conversation with a guy at work (HR - Statistics) and he said something interesting regarding global economy.

    Pretty mich, he stated that it appeared to be controlled/Fabricated and it really has more to do with banking and strength/control than it is about an end product. He further explained that back in London, it was the manufacturing center for England, yet now, they produce nothing. Whats making it grow is its influx of foreigners and the stock exchange, while it still sells British culture to many other countries (former colonies).

    Russia is a large economy with many enterprises. Whats funny is the magical words that get thrown around like: Corruption, Diversify, Multiculteralism, and less regulations. But, if you look at the more prospering countries like India and China, they have massive corruption. About as much or more than Russia (no, the transperency index is not a good indicator as it relies on perception). So corruption can only be a factor, amd possibly a small one. Ok, then what about diversified economy? Well, what does that mean? If you look back from the late 90's and early 2000 to now, Russia had still quite a few industries building high tech products, heavy industrial goods and Energy development. It was pretty diversified. But now, you have significantly more, with Nanotech companies popping up, car manufacturing up, more personal wealth for domrstic consumption, more semiconductor facilities, ect. Yet, in all of that, people are saying they are not diversified. So what does that word mean then? In the end, it ends up as a perception more so than anything else.

    Ultimately, what was boiled down for me, was that because of Russia's politics, and lack of control, will make it never rich. They have products built in Russia en mass, but no one buys them outside of CIS countries cause they are competitors and so tarrifs destroys sales. Maybe, propping up its neighbours to be economically strong, will help Russia in long run in order to make sales of their other products. Or go the way they are now and not be successful. Because all Europe and China wants is your resources, not end goods. To sell end goods to China, there should be policies in place where both sides have to sell each other a # of end goods for each sector.

    There is no such thing as a conpetitive good, when the opponent will not import your product because it will compete with theirs.

    Edit: forgot to mention that since the market is already flooded with cheap end goods which will pretty much not end up doing any good for Russia if they competed against. Hence why you dont see Germany doing such manufacturing. USA does but a lot of the components are not made in USA, and the cost of the goods are expensive (Kirkland brand, Kitchenaid,etc).


    There is no need to leave on denial. Tariffs, restrictions, and politics do play a role but if we speak about everyday family oriented industrial goods still Russia lacks BIG time.
    Lada doesn't sell in Germany not because Opel, Mercedes, BMW, VW are German, but because they can beat the crap out of the pure Lada.
    TV and refrigerators and air-conditions make no exports because Mitsubishi, LG, Philips, SONY, Panasonic are VASTLY superior than anything Russia can produce.
    There are no CPUs that can match Intel and AMD that's why we don't have any Russian laptops and not because we protect our-self's against Russia.
    ROSATOM sells like hotcakes cause they are BETTER than General Electric despite NPPs are much more STRATEGIC sector than f@@ing CD players and MP3s
    Sukhoi and Tupolev create flying machines better than Lockheed or Airbus that's why once they get full production their civil planes will expel Airbus from Europe despite the latter
    being French!
    So the key is to be good. And due to communism non individualistic consumption and the lost ground after the resolution of USSR Russia's small every day civilian industry is mostly laughable.
    You don't deny reality, you change it.

    Actually, your wrong on some of this.

    Rosatom does well because competition is lacking and GE's tech was under question for Fukushima and thus, hits at their sales. MCST produces quite competitive goods, same with Module. R-1000, for a RISC processor is competitive due to decent performance at very little power consumption. There CISC processor, Elbrus 2C+ as well with its low consumption, and 4 dsp cores. What holds them back is licensing (that Intel will not let them have) of steppings like SSE4 as an example. That right there is trying to limit it. Neuromatrix from Module is quite the design.

    Lada changed management and Granta is a hige seller. Lets see where it goes. As well, there are Russian fridges. But the market is flooded with cheap shit that will outdo the Russian goods. Unless Hanibal, you can explain to me why USA does not actually produce the parts themselves.  Its name, not product anymore. Hence why you will see people shell out hundreds on a Tommy Hilfigure shirt and jeans, that was made in Vietnam.

    Germany has an upper hand not because of the fable of "German engineering" (biggest lie of the 20th century) but because of name. Ford (For an American company) is one of the few who actually produces a decent vehicles for a right price. BMW, Mercedes, Audi and VW are all garbage quality vehicles. But sell well because its a name and people think status and luxury to that name. Toyota is going that way with Lexus and Scion. Ford has that with Lincoln (Lincoln trucks are rebaged F-150's for a high price).

    Name sells more than quality these days. Unless you have little options, which is Rosatom. MCST has shown theu can be very competitive but because lack of access to specific instruction sets, it will always be held behind. Not much they can do about that unless they skip CISC design and just concentrate on RISC. But that wont make them competitive.

    Their TV industry, like many in the 90's went the way of the ghost. LG and Samsung manufacture TV's in Russia now for CIS country sales. I can gaurentee you, most of those companies you listed, buys and assembles their components for those products in China. S.Korea is really only other that tries to do most in Korea. But even then, my phone (LG), has some parts made in China and some in Korea.

    Edit: please excuse my spelling as I am trying to type it out on a smartphone.

    Here is one example of Russian made refridgeration units: http://www.polair.com/en/about/


    Last edited by sepheronx on Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:55 pm; edited 2 times in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:37 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    Austin wrote:Hannibal or any body can tell me if Structural Reforms is the key problem that impending growth as Russian Central Bank says it.

    What is the Structural Reforms needed ?

    Why are they not doing this Structural Reforms so far ?

    Structural Reforms include all the legislative and bureaucratic changes that can make a market business and investment friendly.
    It also include fight against corruption, transparency, privatization fight against monopolies and environmental legislation.
    It can go even further including reforms in the banking sector, free movement of capital etc.
    In one word it means Westernization and decrease of the government control over economy, relaxation of  fiscal and trade balance policies etc.
    eg
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_doing_business_index
    http://www.doingbusiness.org/data
    http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/russia

    Especially in the last site you can find a ton of data.


    Yeah half of those reforms are much needed for Russia. Specially corruption and bureaucracy is a no-no for economic development. And banking sector need huge reforms.
    The other half is US lead rhetoric to degenerate emerging economies. Yet in the needed half, Putin said that Russia will be in the top 20 business friendly countries until the end of his presidency.

    If you ask me Russia needs this reforms to be more attractive for Western capital, but is not gonna see a lot of western investments anytime soon anyway  Laughing  and they will see a hefty rise of eastern investments anyway.
    What they need this reforms is mainly for the inner market. And yeah, inner market will gonna boost instantly if they resolve some long standing problems.

    Still, reforms or not, the Russian economy's fundamentals and real economy indexes raise fast enough that this is not what you call stagnation, but merely slowdown.
    Stagnation is when you have zero growth and a general dying out of the economy and a general notion that you have hit  a wall.
    Like Japan in the 90s, Europe today, USSR in the 70s. Today Russia certainly doesn't fall in this basket!

    There is that magic word again, corruption. Issue is, it falls under the perception index. Should they change theirs the way US did? As well, why do they want their investments? What about foreign investments did to Russia in the 90's? Walmart tried but failed because it was going to undermine others. AAP party in India realized that the very same issue is happening in Delhi, so they are pushing out or limiting the big guys.  They are doing fine.

    Not everything is about US investments. And on top of that, taxation on imports in our countries are astronomical compared to others. In canada, it can be as high as 200%. Maybe Russia should do that to be more "competitive" and "less corrupt".

    Not everything is fair hannible. You should know this.

    Foreign investment, especially in US ends up with string attached. If it isnt groups like USaid which uses half of its funds to fund the opposition in Russia, its actually trying to dismantle competition. Last they need is to ask how high when uncle sam says to jump. They had that in the 90's. Foreign investment is more detrimental after a period of time, see 2008 crisis. People are saying China is next if US decides to pull the plug on that creature and move manufacturing elsewhere. China will be hit hard. It can be good for short term growth. Not long term.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:55 pm

    OK my friend long story short.
    -I am looking for a big tourer with 600hp and 0-100km/h in less than 5 seconds and a top speed in excess of 300km/h
    Thus I am looking for an CLS 63 AMG but since I love Russian products give me a Russian analogue to buy.

    -I am looking for a high end PC cause as an engineer I usually run demanding applications. I am heading towards a intel i7 3930k 6-core desktop.
    I would love to know which Elbrus model you would suggest for me.

    -Finally since you don't like your smartphone's spelling which is LG  Twisted Evil  tell me which Russian model you plan to buy next  Laughing 
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:00 pm

    I would buy a Yotaphone but too expensive and not in NA market.

    Elbrus R-1000 is a RISC and on a BSD based OS like MSMS would be quite good for engineering. You can find Autocad software thay works under BSD.
    Did you know Fujitsu runs a supercomputer (so does China with one of the top 500) based aroind SPARC V9, much to what R series is? Dont get me started in this field as this is the field I work in. They are working on R-1000M apparently. Look forward to it. As well, RISC are great at number crunching (which is cad) and are impressive at being superscalar.

    Dont know about last. Get yourself a piece of shit that will last you less than 5 years like an Audi A8. Or you can get Indian owned (But british named  Laughing ) Jag.

    One thing Ill admit on is they suck big time in marketing.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:09 pm

    Oh, on another note, we will more than likely see Elbrus 4C this year and 8C next year as ministry of Industry and trade are oushing its development due to the need of a powerful superscalar processors on heavy industrial equipment lime robotics.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:10 pm

    I was looking about Elbrus recently but I couldn't find enough information and benchmarks etc.
    If you know enough about Russian semiconductor industry specially for PC products create a specialized thread.
    This is a field where traditional Russia/USSR is behind.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:18 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:I was looking about Elbrus recently but I couldn't find enough information and benchmarks etc.
    If you know enough about Russian semiconductor industry specially for PC products create a specialized thread.
    This is a field where traditional Russia/USSR is behind.

    Well, you may be interested in finding that this year (Possibly) they will release ultrabooks with their CISC line (so Elbrus 4C possibly) that will have the bells and whistles. That is of course, the Ministry follows through and funds the processor. Or it will end up snail like performance.

    Russia was behind. But thanks to the 90's (I guess) and Sun went bankrupt and Oracle buys them out, a lot of licenses for their RISC processors go out for cheap. Then Babayan starts its CISC development with Elbrus 2000. Of course, the guy sells off part of the business (when it privatized, with foreign funding) and sold it off to of course 'drum roll please'...... Intel. They would be further ahead with CISC development if it wasnt for that guy and selling part of its industry away ( and leaving as he got a job with Intel). I guess you can say its another way to limit conpetition. As well, Intel has R&D in Russia. A lot of ex employees from MCST work for Intel. Guess they were paying more. Fact that they have huge control over total market.
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    Post  Austin Mon Jan 20, 2014 4:50 pm

    Foreign debt has increased over 2013 by 15%, to $ 732 billion

    http://ria.ru/economy/20140120/990235944.html


    External Debt of the Russian Federation on January 1, 2014 amounted to 732.046 billion compared to $ 636.435 billion as of January 1, 2013, according to preliminary data of the Bank of Russia.

    Thus, the country's foreign debt has grown over the past year to 95.6 billion dollars, or 15%.


    For the fourth quarter of 2013 foreign debt increased by 2.5%, or 17.84 billion. In late December, the Bank of Russia re-estimated the country's external debt on October 1, 2013, reducing it to 714.206 billion dollars from the original figure of 719.6 billion dollars.


    Non-financial sector in 2013 increased its external debt to 73.02 billion dollars, or 20% - up to 437.822 billion.



    Banks increased their debt to non-residents 13.37 billion, or 6.6% - to 214.94 billion dollars.


    External debt of general government in 2013 increased by 9.01 billion dollars, or 16.6% - to 63.44 billion dollars.


    The level of external debt of the monetary (CB) increased by $ 205 million, or 1.3% - to 15,844 billion dollars.




    So net external Debt of Russia as of 1st Jan 2014 is 36 % of GDP

    Public Debt of Russian Government is 11 % of GDP


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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:12 pm

    I thought pyblic debt was better to have over foreign debt. Wonder why they bothered to increase it. Its foreign exchange fund is worth tons. Why not use the money they have saved?

    On another note, ill be awaiting for whatever Kraftway produces with the upcoming Elbrus 4c and see if I can get on board in testing it. I'll be contacting MCST to see if I can get involved. If people here are interested in that.
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    Post  Austin Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:20 pm

    Foreign debt is high because cheap money at 0-1 % interest rate is available from US or Europe.

    Public Debt is generally Government Debt.

    Foreign debt includes debts taken by bank , private sector , banking sector and government.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Jan 20, 2014 8:08 pm

    Austin wrote:Foreign debt is high because cheap money at 0-1 % interest rate is available from US or Europe.

    Public Debt is generally Government Debt.

    Foreign debt includes debts taken by bank , private sector , banking sector and government.

    Thanks for the explanation.

    But even at low interest, still high risk. How much do you want to bet that a huge portion of the companies scrounging up such debt to foreign banks will either be taken over at one point or end up failing? Anyway, they really need to regulate the banking sector and separate the law from government.
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    Post  Austin Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:58 am

    Government cant control from where private bank and company take loans from.

    They take from where it is cheap , in Russia you get loan at interest rate 8 %

    If private bank/companies fails then its an NPA .....its better they fail.
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Jan 21, 2014 5:48 am

    Austin wrote:Government cant control from where private bank and company take loans from.

    They take from where it is cheap , in Russia you get loan at interest rate 8 %

    If private bank/companies fails then its an NPA .....its better they fail.

    Yeah. Agreed. After what is happening with the Russian banks as of late, I would wager that they are probably the largest to be blamed for lack of growth. Investments being transferred out of the country, laundering of said money, dealing in scrupulous loans, etc.

    Bailing out these rouge institutes will just create same problems later on.

    Oh well. After last years performance, a lot of people are under fire for it. Lets see if something is dealt with.
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:22 am

    The Russian Central Bank's 'Weak Ruble' Policy Is Actually A Great Idea

    Russia's Economic Performance Is Actually Very Similar To Other East European Countries'
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:25 am

    Any reasons why Russian Economy is doing great at 6-7 % GDP growth when Prices of Oil was High in 2000's but it is not doing great today when prices of Oil are Equally High ?

    What has Changed ?
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    Post  TR1 Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:58 am

    Austin wrote:Any reasons why Russian Economy is doing great at 6-7 % GDP growth when Prices of Oil was High in 2000's but it is not doing great today when prices of Oil are Equally High ?

    What has Changed ?

    The economy grew, is what happened. It was much smaller in early 2000s so the oil prices had a huge effect.

    It is a larger economy now, easy "oil-growth" is a thing of the past. The country had adjusted to high oil prices, something new needs to happen to get that kind of growth back.
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:55 pm

    What does it mean by country adjusted to high oil prices ?

    Another question , Is Rouble is fully convertable currency without any restrictions ? I mean in Russia can you free trade Russian Rouble for USD without restrictions ?

    Thanks.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:19 pm

    Yes it is.
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    Post  Austin Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:31 pm

    Ok Thats means Rouble is the only fully convertable currency in BRICS ....atleast I know our Indian Rupee is not convertible. 


    Some updates on NWF and National Reserve Fund

    Aggregate amount of the Fund --> http://www1.minfin.ru/en/nationalwealthfund/statistics/amount/index.php?id_4=5830
    01.01.2014   USD $ 88,63

    Aggregate amount of the Reserve fund  --->       01.01.2014  USD $ 87,38

    Total = $ 176 Billion 

    Russian Forex Reserve http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND

    USD $499
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    Post  Viktor Wed Jan 22, 2014 4:14 pm

    Going up ....

    PM Medvedev: Russia ranked 43rd Best Country for Business in 2014

    Reserve fund exceeded three trillion rubles

    In Davos, Russia offered to develop the economy through regions

    Putin justified the sweep of the banking sector

    Reforms are in move .....

    Sponsored content


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