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    Russian Economy General News: #1

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    Austin


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    Post  Austin Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:46 pm

    GDP Growth is 2 % as per Finance Ministry assuming the next 2 quarters growth pick up.

    3 % is not possible as the first two quarter it was 1.6 % and 1.2 %.

    A gradual weakning of Rouble is desirable and export becomes more competitive and perhaps it may also boost domestic product appeal as Garry says , import will become expensive.

    Hopefully Europe is out of its recession for good and its not just technical.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Aug 18, 2013 5:54 pm

    Austin wrote:GDP Growth is  2 % as per Finance Ministry assuming the next 2 quarters growth pick up.

    3 % is not possible as the first two quarter it was 1.6 % and 1.2 %.

    A gradual weakning of Rouble is desirable and export becomes more competitive and perhaps it may also boost domestic product appeal as Garry says , import will become expensive.

    Hopefully Europe is out of its recession for good and its not just technical.
    Once again, let us wait and see.  There are still two more quarters since there are 4 of them in 1 year.  First two were bad, but lets see if the other two are good.  Especially since construction and agriculture are extremely important to Russian GDP growth.  Farming season is not over yet. I don't believe it will be 3% but it could be in the lower 2% which I am hoping for. I round numbers up (I know, I shouldn't).
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    Post  Austin Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:45 am

    Seems like Ukraine will join EU Economic Bloc and there may be some trade war between Russia and Ukraine

    Trade ‘suicide’: Russia prepares to tighten borders if Ukraine signs on with EU
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    Post  Regular Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:34 am

    Russia is being classy, again playing like a "gent" and still some of You roll Your eyes why people pee their pants when someone says "Rasha".
    But Khokhlandia - Isn't it too late to join EU? Like seriously, we already have troubled members in the south and now this excuse for a country comes in. What's next? Afghanistan?
    Good luck while being pushed around by Brussels, EU constitution will have higher power over Your own, say good bye to Your work force. And I can only wonder how EU funds will improve life of their politicians Smile
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    Post  TheArmenian Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:47 am

    Interesting points Regular.
    By the way, I know you are a Lithuanian living in the UK, but are you from Russian origin?
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    Post  Austin Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:48 am

    Merits of Ukraine joining EU or not is something they should decide , I suspect Russia is trying to play hardball by trying to pull Ukraine join Custom Union something they should not do in their own interest as it will create long time complication for the already dicy Ukraine-Russia Relations.

    Every body knows the state of EU today so if Ukraine is planning to join it well good luck.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:12 am

    Regular wrote:Russia is being classy, again playing like a "gent" and still some of You roll Your eyes why people pee their pants when someone says "Rasha".
    But Khokhlandia - Isn't it too late to join EU? Like seriously, we already have troubled members in the south and now this excuse for a country comes in. What's next? Afghanistan?
    Good luck while being pushed around by Brussels, EU constitution will have higher power over Your own, say good bye to Your work force. And I can only wonder how EU funds will improve life of their politicians Smile
    Russia is overreacting and adopting the wrong strategy.
    I know the Ukrainians were forewarned that that bureaucratic barriers will be put in place for them just as they are for all other countries apart from a few with the privilege to export to Russia without paperwork (CIS and until now the Ukraine being one of them).

    But nonetheless it's the wrong move because it will harm trade and hurt the support base of pro-Russian politicians.
    Russia should be trying to increase trade with the Ukraine as much as possible. If it achieves continues high trade growth and re-orientates the Ukraine's economic focus to itself and the CIS - then it would hardly matter whether the Ukraine has a free trade agreement with Europe or not.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:16 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:16 am

    TheArmenian wrote:Interesting points Regular.
    By the way, I know you are a Lithuanian living in the UK, but are you from Russian origin?
    There are some pro-Russian Lithuanians in the world. Just like there are pro-Russian Poles and so on.
    They're a rare bird but they can be found in the wild from time to time.
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    Post  Austin Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:32 am

    flamming_python wrote:But nonetheless it's the wrong move because it will harm trade and hurt the support base of pro-Russian politicians.
    Russia should be trying to increase trade with the Ukraine as much as possible. If it achieves continues high trade growth and re-orientates the Ukraine's economic focus to itself and the CIS - then it would hardly matter whether the Ukraine has a free trade agreement with Europe or not.
    Agree thats the best approach , Make the Western Media and Ukranian pro west politician portray Russia as the Big Bully.
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    Post  Austin Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:38 am

    Very Interesting Speech Must See

    Martin Armstrong lunch speech at Bangkok Rotary Club - 7th

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    Post  sepheronx Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:59 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Regular wrote:Russia is being classy, again playing like a "gent" and still some of You roll Your eyes why people pee their pants when someone says "Rasha".
    But Khokhlandia - Isn't it too late to join EU? Like seriously, we already have troubled members in the south and now this excuse for a country comes in. What's next? Afghanistan?
    Good luck while being pushed around by Brussels, EU constitution will have higher power over Your own, say good bye to Your work force. And I can only wonder how EU funds will improve life of their politicians Smile
    Russia is overreacting and adopting the wrong strategy.
    I know the Ukrainians were forewarned that that bureaucratic barriers will be put in place for them just as they are for all other countries apart from a few with the privilege to export to Russia without paperwork (CIS and until now the Ukraine being one of them).

    But nonetheless it's the wrong move because it will harm trade and hurt the support base of pro-Russian politicians.
    Russia should be trying to increase trade with the Ukraine as much as possible. If it achieves continues high trade growth and re-orientates the Ukraine's economic focus to itself and the CIS - then it would hardly matter whether the Ukraine has a free trade agreement with Europe or not.

    Russia is already a massive cash cow for Ukraine. Without Russia, Ukraine may face further failure in its economy. EU will have a lot on their hands to try and improve Ukraine. I think it will be another factor of bankrupting the EU. But I agree, Russia should just continue to trade with Ukraine, as money is money.
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    Post  Regular Wed Aug 21, 2013 4:38 pm

    So called EU improvement is nice on paper and in populist speeches. In fact EU members are more interested in exploiting new members, their workforce and market. For example in my country EU managed to destroy what was left of our agriculture and industry and they lowered quotas of what we should produce instead told us to import stuff from other members. EU has no interest in strengthening new countries.
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:34 pm

    Regular wrote:So called EU improvement is nice on paper and in populist speeches. In fact EU members are more interested in exploiting new members, their workforce and market. For example in my country EU managed to destroy what was left of our agriculture and industry and they lowered quotas of what we should produce instead told us to import stuff from other members. EU has no interest in strengthening new countries.
    Well, let the Ukrainians figure that out the hard way. They love to blame their brothers and sisters east of them, but they can never learn until they face further hardship than they already are in.
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    Post  Viktor Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:55 pm

    Very interesting

    Change in Accounting Practice to Boost Russian GDP – Official
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    Post  sepheronx Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:14 pm

    That just further proves my point that GDP growth measurement is a total sham.
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    Post  Viktor Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:48 pm

    The growth of foreign investment in Russia in I half-year was 32.1%, or 98.8 billion dollars
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    Post  Austin Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:04 pm

    Foreign Investment Rises 32 Percent, Net Outflow Remains

    Foreign investment into Russia in the first half of 2013 was $99 billion, a 32 percent rise from the same period a year ago, according to the State Statistics Service.

    Of this, $12 billion was direct foreign investment, Prime reported.

    However, Russian investment abroad increased by 80 percent to $126 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $27 billion during the period.

    "As at June 30, 2013, there was $370 billion of accumulated foreign capital in the Russian economy, 11 percent more than at the end of the same period last year," the State Statistics Service said.
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    Post  Austin Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:17 pm

    Russia's GDP will increase by half by counting the shells and bombs
    http://top.rbc.ru/economics/21/08/2013/871019.shtml

    Russia's nominal GDP in the coming years will grow by half, and perhaps more, writes today, " RBC Daily ". The reason for the dramatic growth will be modified technique of calculation of GDP - is now used with the System of National Accounts (SNA) 1993. Statistics will move to the 2008 SNA.

    As a result, the GDP calculation base will include new indicators: military assets, expenditure on research and development (R & D), conditional residential rents (the price that the apartment owner would receive for the surrender of its lease if it had not lived it himself).

    "The new SNA requires that we recovered assets for military purposes and as part of the capital, and as part of working capital", - says the head of the Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat) Alexander Suriname. Under the new scheme of reusable objects (for example, the means of delivery of shells and bombs) should be included in the fixed assets and the bombs themselves - in working capital. "This means that we should all count, and this will lead to an increase in GDP," - said the head of service.

    Threats to national security in connection with the disclosure of this information A.Surinov not see. According to him, the report will reflect a balance sheet, and all other countries, including the U.S. and China, too, it will open.

    "We're not talking about a weapons system, how much of what purchase, this information will not be - only accounting figures. Issue of confidentiality is not worth it: aggregation, specific businesses will not be called," - said the head of the Federal State Statistics Service.

    Regarding the inclusion of such a thing as a conditional residential rents, according A.Surinova, it can increase the nominal GDP by 7-9%. "Before, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reproached us that we do not take into account, we now fix it" - said the head of the Federal State Statistics Service. Will she and the calculation of inflation: consumer prices will rise in the share of housing costs.

    How many exactly eventually grow GDP as a result of the transition to the new standard, A.Surinov difficult to answer, but he stressed that less than half as much. "Which of these innovations will affect the dynamics of the economy, do not know yet," - he added.
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    Post  NationalRus Sat Aug 24, 2013 5:17 pm

    total keynesian bullshit and nummber circus, means literly nothing, jesus christ i cant facepalm hard enough reading this bullshit Rolling Eyes 

    just like USA changed the calculations for the CPI to hide inflation after the 70's just becouse you calculate it diffrent doesnt mean it isn't ther, or in our case now that it is ther
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    Post  sepheronx Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:18 pm

    Austin wrote:Foreign Investment Rises 32 Percent, Net Outflow Remains

    Foreign investment into Russia in the first half of 2013 was $99 billion, a 32 percent rise from the same period a year ago, according to the State Statistics Service.

    Of this, $12 billion was direct foreign investment, Prime reported.

    However, Russian investment abroad increased by 80 percent to $126 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $27 billion during the period.

    "As at June 30, 2013, there was $370 billion of accumulated foreign capital in the Russian economy, 11 percent more than at the end of the same period last year," the State Statistics Service said.
    If there is $370 Billion of Accumulated foreign capital in Russia, than how is the investments abroad outweigh the investments done in the country?

    Anyway, investments abroad could very well mean projects abroad, like development of Russian industries in other countries, or building energy facilities in other countries (Africa is one continent growing with Russian investments).

    NationalRus wrote:total keynesian bullshit and nummber circus, means literly nothing, jesus christ i cant facepalm hard enough reading this bullshit Rolling Eyes 

    just like USA changed the calculations for the CPI to hide inflation after the 70's just becouse you calculate it diffrent doesnt mean it isn't ther, or in our case now that it is ther
    Entirely true. These are the main culprits to the issues we face today in the global economy.
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    Post  Viktor Sat Aug 24, 2013 8:46 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Anyway, investments abroad could very well mean projects abroad, like development of Russian industries in other countries, or building energy facilities in other countries (Africa is one continent growing with Russian investments).
    My thought exactly. For instance Russia is investing 30 bin $ in Venezuela oil and gas and construction sector. That 30 bin $ is outflow but at the same time it is investment that

    will returin initial investment plus profit in time.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Aug 24, 2013 10:55 pm

    NationalRus wrote:total keynesian bullshit and nummber circus, means literly nothing, jesus christ i cant facepalm hard enough reading this bullshit Rolling Eyes

    just like USA changed the calculations for the CPI to hide inflation after the 70's just becouse you calculate it diffrent doesnt mean it isn't ther, or in our case now that it is ther
    sepheronx wrote:Entirely true. These are the main culprits to the issues we face today in the global economy.
    You guys should read the first sentence again

    Russia's nominal GDP in the coming years will grow by half, and perhaps more, writes today, " RBC Daily ". The reason for the dramatic growth will be modified technique of calculation of GDP - is now used with the System of National Accounts (SNA) 1993. Statistics will move to the 2008 SNA.
    The GDP calculation system was revised in 2008 and everyone got on board with it but Russia didn't; it still uses the old system - which results in a problem.
    Russia's nominal GDP appears to be lower than it actually is; the discrepancy between Russia's GDP and the GDP of richer countries is bigger than it should be because the calculations differ.

    Because the shells and bombs aren't counted, Russia looks poorer than it actually is. Time to correct that.

    Now the new system will be used; and it just so happens that as a result Russia's GDP will be corrected up.
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    Post  Austin Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:26 am

    7-9 % rise in Nominal GDP will add around $150 billion more to GDP figures , not much of a change for $2 trillion economy.
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    Post  Viktor Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:35 pm

    China, Russia Clinch Terms of Multi-Billion Dollar Gas Deal
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    Post  Austin Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:41 pm

    Hope they could negotiate on the gas price quickly thats what is remaining and key piece of puzzle.

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