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    Economy of China:

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    Vladimir79
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    Economy of China:

    Post  Vladimir79 on Mon Jul 05, 2010 10:07 am

    Surging China Debt May Weaken Growth, Limit Stimulus
    June 28, 2010, 3:51 AM EDT

    June 28 (Bloomberg) -- China’s efforts to contain the risks from a surge in local-government debt may hurt growth in the world’s third-biggest economy, investment bank China International Capital Corp. said.

    A report by the chief auditor last week indicated officials may take “relatively forceful measures” including strictly controlling new borrowing, CICC economists led by Hong Kong- based Ha Jiming said in a report today. The effect may be to “limit the source of funding for infrastructure projects and affect future economic growth.”

    Chinese policy makers are grappling with the risks posed by the credit boom that fueled the nation’s comeback from the global recession. Fitch Ratings says lenders’ weakened financial positions as asset quality deteriorates could limit the nation’s ability to respond to any renewed global slump with more stimulus measures.

    Next year, after the end of existing fiscal stimulus, “the funding of infrastructure projects will face greater pressure, so fixed-asset investment growth may decelerate and we can’t be optimistic about the outlook for the economy,” the CICC economists said.

    Chinese banks may face a wave of bad loans from lending to local-government financing vehicles under the stimulus program begun in November 2008, Victor Shih, a political economist at Northwestern University, and Citigroup Inc. have warned separately.

    Weakening Asset Quality

    According to Fitch, lending so far may have limited the government’s options in the future.

    A future deterioration in lenders’ asset quality is a “near-certainty,” Charlene Chu, a senior director in financial institutions ratings for Fitch in Beijing, told a conference in Hong Kong last week. “Chinese banks’ financial positions are more strained than it appears,” she said.

    In an e-mail, she said that in the wake of last year’s record $1.4 trillion of lending, banks would be less able to engage in as large a stimulus as in 2008 and 2009. This could make any potential double-dip recession more protracted, she said.

    The China Banking Regulatory Commission estimates that outstanding loans to funding vehicles set up by local governments rose 70 percent to 7.38 trillion yuan at the end of 2009 from a year earlier. In the first quarter of 2010, about 40 percent of new loans went to such entities, according to the CBRC. The vehicles are used because local governments can’t borrow directly.

    Slowing Growth

    In a “worst-case scenario,” the non-performing loans of local-government financing vehicles could reach 2.4 trillion yuan ($350 billion) by 2011, Citigroup said in March. Shih said separately that a crackdown on lending could lead to a “gigantic wave” of bad debts.

    The CICC analysts said today that the borrowing won’t lead to a crisis for China for reasons including the government’s growing revenue, relatively low level of debt overall and large asset base.

    Liu Jiayi, the nation’s chief auditor, indicated last week in a report to a standing committee of the National People’s Congress that some local governments’ debt burdens are excessive.

    Fiscal Risk

    The official cited cases of debts amounting to more than 100 percent of local governments’ available fiscal resources in an audit of 18 provinces, 16 cities and 36 counties. In one case, the level is 365 percent, Liu said.

    Officials must “strictly control” local government borrowing and prevent “the financial risk evolving into a fiscal one,” Liu said.

    China’s gross domestic product grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter of 2010 from a year earlier, the fastest pace in almost three years. The risk that the nation could have a “hard landing” has been one of the biggest sources of anxiety for global investors this year, Tim Condon, a Singapore-based economist at ING Groep NV, said last week.

    In November 2008, the government scrapped quotas that limited banks’ lending and pressed them to support a stimulus program devised to shield the economy from the effects of the global financial crisis. The result was a flood of cash.

    Some of the money went into property, fueling speculation that contributed to record price gains, and some was channeled into the local-government financing vehicles.

    China’s banking regulator said June 15 that it sees growing credit risks in the real-estate industry and warned of increasing pressure from non-performing loans. The State Council, China’s cabinet, this month ordered local governments to ensure repayment of debts by the financing vehicles and concentrate on completing projects already underway.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-28/surging-china-debt-may-weaken-growth-limit-stimulus.html

    nemrod
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    China to overtake US economy; India trumps Japan

    Post  nemrod on Wed Apr 30, 2014 12:47 pm

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101626562?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=101626562|China%20to%20overtake%20US%20econ

    In fact if you remove figures intentionally in dollars, for few years China surpassed USA in world's largest economy. Moreover, if you add the facts that all publications, and all great organisations that published these studies, are either IMF, World Bank, or CIA, ie, western organisations, in fact USA.
    As we've already seen, most of their publication, their economy's figures, their claims are all lies. I guess that Russia has already overpassed Germany, idem, Brazil.
    Indeed, if you take a look, the rare areas where Brics are not still present in global market, is microprocessors, hard disk, memories, but, Iam near sure, they will soon be present.
    I wish to buy for my computer a russian processor, beside, chinese hardisk, indian DDRAM memories, and brazilian's operating system origin.
    How many times shall we await ?


    nemrod
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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  nemrod on Wed Apr 30, 2014 4:28 pm



    http://theweek.com/article/index/260755/speedreads-china-to-pass-us-to-become-worlds-largest-economy-this-year



    China to overtake U.S. as world's largest economy this year

    The U.S. — the world's largest economy since the 1880s — is on the verge of losing its status as the world's largest economy, and is likely to slip behind China this year, says the International Comparison Program, part of the World Bank.

    In 2005, the World Bank estimated China's economy was less than half the size of America's, equaling just 43 percent of America's total output. But in 2011 the research placed China's GDP at 87 percent of the U.S., reflecting China's staggeringly enormous economic growth, as well as an updated methodology on purchasing power parity (the amount of goods and services money buys) that recognizes that money goes much further in developing economies than it does in wealthier economies.

    With China's economy now expected to have grown 24 percent between 2011 and 2014 while the U.S. is expected to expand only 7.6 percent in that period, China is on course to overtake the U.S. this year. China has already overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest trading nation.

    The new measurements dramatically change the shape of the global economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of developing economies. For example, India becomes the world's third-largest economy having previously been in tenth place. The size of its economy also dramatically expanded from the equivalent of 19 percent of the U.S. economy in 2005 to 37 percent in 2011. Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico have also grown significantly.

    Of course, the U.S. remains vastly ahead of China in terms of economic activity per person. The U.S. has just 4.44 percent of the world's population, while China has 19.1 percent, so it is unsurprising to see China catch the U.S. in terms of total activity. But in terms of economic activity per person, the U.S. is further down the list, in sixth place behind Qatar, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, and Brunei.
    - - John Aziz


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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Apr 30, 2014 6:03 pm

    Yes. Everything we have seen the last 6 years, and I mean EVERYTHING, goes down to this.

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    Economy of China

    Post  Viktor on Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:50 pm

    WoW WoW WoW nice going China Very Happy


    Dollar no longer primary oil currency as China begins to sell oil using Yuan

    De-Dollarization: Europe and China Start Direct Trading In Euros and Renminbi

    Lindsey Williams: "The most significant day in the history of the American dollar, since its inception, happened on Thursday, Sept. 6. On that day, something took place that is going to affect your life, your family, your dinner table more than you can possibly imagine."

    "On Thursday, Sept. 6... just a few days ago, China made the official announcement. China said on that day, our banking system is ready, all of our communication systems are ready, all of the transfer systems are ready, and as of that day, Thursday, Sept. 6, any nation in the world that wishes from this point on, to buy, sell, or trade crude oil, can do using the Chinese currency, not the American dollar

    medo
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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  medo on Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:04 pm

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-just-overtook-us-worlds-090801574.html

    China is now officially the largest economy in the World and surpass US.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:02 pm

    Faster than anyone would expect. This Chinese are truly amazing!
    Well it took 143 years and this is certainly the biggest news of the decade although certain jewish media networks will downplay it.
    The rest will come deterministically after this in the next couple decades.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Mike E on Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:56 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Faster than anyone would expect. This Chinese are truly amazing!
    Well it took 143 years and this is certainly the biggest news of the decade although certain jewish media networks will downplay it.
    The rest will come deterministically after this in the next couple decades.
    I can only hope that this trend will continue... Much like in the stock market, a country whose GDP and economy (in general) grows like notin' else for a long period of time will almost always come back down. Over time*

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:55 am

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-09/not-just-largest-economy-%E2%80%93-here-are-26-other-ways-china-has-surpassed-america


    This sums it up pretty well I think.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  higurashihougi on Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:57 am

    Mike E wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:Faster than anyone would expect. This Chinese are truly amazing!
    Well it took 143 years and this is certainly the biggest news of the decade although certain jewish media networks will downplay it.
    The rest will come deterministically after this in the next couple decades.
    I can only hope that this trend will continue... Much like in the stock market, a country whose GDP and economy (in general) grows like notin' else for a long period of time will almost always come back down. Over time*

    I want to apologize to the Chinese friends in this forum... but Hanoi will not like it... due to the current disputed territories and due to the history of conflicts and mistrust between the two countries.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  NationalRus on Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:59 am

    medo wrote:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-just-overtook-us-worlds-090801574.html

    China is now officially the largest economy in the World and surpass US.

    it is not, PPP is by far not so important then GDP, ther purchising power might be bigger now = ther abillity to get credit and the availability of ther currency and its exchange in the global market, but i doesnt say nearly anything about ther output, so calm your balls down

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:28 pm

    NationalRus wrote:
    medo wrote:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-just-overtook-us-worlds-090801574.html

    China is now officially the largest economy in the World and surpass US.

    it is not, PPP is by far not so important then GDP, ther purchising power might be bigger now = ther abillity to get credit and the availability of ther currency and its exchange in the global market, but i doesnt say nearly anything about ther output, so calm your balls down

    It's far more complicated than that, a large chunk of the US GDP is heavily reliant on banks that rely on credit default swaps, credit default obligations to survive, some of the worst and most toxic assets in the business world. Case in point you have Lehman Brothers, a powerful bank that saw so much success that they managed to accumulate over $600 billion in assets, but then in 2008 the company evaporated over night. How can that be possible? Why did the U.S. banking sector needed nearly $800 billion in TARP money to survive, only to get an additional +$20 trillion of 0% interest credit to prop them up from the Federal Reserve for them to survive? The U.S. govt. decided they were "too big to fail", meaning they make up a huge part of the GDP to warrant propping them up. The top banks use high frequency trading to lend with CDS's, CDO's more than hundreds and many times thousands of times more than the actual money and assets that the bank has at any given time. The mere fact that they require several trillion from the U.S. govt./Federal Reserve to prop them up and heavily subsidize their industry, indicates that the banking sector is just one huge bubble market living off on a collective Ponzi scheme called derivatives. If the likes of banks such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley  with combined assets in the several trillion Dollar range go down the drain, it means a large chunk of the U.S. GDP will go down the drain with them!

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  NationalRus on Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:24 pm

    im a liberterian when it comes to economics, you dont have to tell me that a big part of US-GDP is toxic, based on debt like a ponzi scheme, but that doenst make PPP more important, btw.! china is facing huge problems on its own with credit in specialy the housing market, ther "national" sitution with debt is solid, like ther budged but that can change fast, several of ther citys are 300-500% in debt compared to ther actaull output, i think one city was actaully 2100% in debt to its output, will try to find that documentary later.
    will see how china will handle this upcomming problems, they did quite good in deflating some of ther housing bubbels till now.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  higurashihougi on Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:45 pm

    The main thing here is that, GDP per capita of China is still not very high, and the wealth gap in China is damn huge.

    That means there is a lot of things for China to do in order to be a real 1st.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Mike E on Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:15 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:The main thing here is that, GDP per capita of China is still not very high, and the wealth gap in China is damn huge.

    That means there is a lot of things for China to do in order to be a real 1st.
    +1 People seem to leave that out... They have a huge economy, but it is controlled by a slim population, it won't end well...

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:18 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:The main thing here is that, GDP per capita of China is still not very high, and the wealth gap in China is damn huge.

    That means there is a lot of things for China to do in order to be a real 1st.

    Well commies you still can't get along with the fact that Chinese decided to adopt a modern version of national socialism (or capitalism I shall better say)
    and reached the world's crown in really no time. Denialists and whiners is what make success the pleasure it really is Razz
    Take a look, Porsche just announced that this year for the first time their biggest market is China.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Mike E on Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:22 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:The main thing here is that, GDP per capita of China is still not very high, and the wealth gap in China is damn huge.

    That means there is a lot of things for China to do in order to be a real 1st.

    Well commies you still can't get along with the fact that Chinese decided to adopt a modern version of national socialism (or capitalism I shall better say)
    and reached the world's crown in really no time. Denialists and whiners is what make success the pleasure it really is Razz
    Take a look, Porsche just announced that this year for the first time their biggest market is China.
    Huh? How on Earth are National Socialism and Keynesian-like Capitalism alike?
    Yeah their economy grew fast, but IMHO it hit its height *until* the people of China can gather more wealth. 
    The car market there is huge, Buick and GM love it!

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:05 pm

    You people fail to realize. China is so strong that she is barely started yet. She is about the level USandA was prior to the civil war, a good 100 years up yet.
    When they will reach their climax, inevitably, will have a few times bigger economy that anyone else.
    Keynesian? Hell, no!

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Mike E on Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:36 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:You people fail to realize. China is so strong that she is barely started yet. She is about the level USandA was prior to the civil war, a good 100 years up yet.
    When they will reach their climax, inevitably, will have a few times bigger economy that anyone else.
    Keynesian? Hell, no!
    Not what I'm saying.... China is an economic powerhouse, does this mean they are going to be stable and steadily-grow? - No! They need to have their population be wealthy, not just their government and a couple billionaires here and there. I wouldn't be surprised if there economy is twice the size of the US's in coming decades, but they are a much bigger country... - They need something other than manufacturing, as countries are slowly becoming self-reliant again. At least they have large mineral reserves, which I'd love to see utilized!

     - When I mention "Keynesian", I mean any economy with weak money etc. That is the basis of Keynesian ideology after all; control via bubbles, and a worthless dollar. With their mineral reserves, they could go onto a "X standard", but that will never happen anyway.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  TR1 on Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:04 pm

    medo wrote:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-just-overtook-us-worlds-090801574.html

    China is now officially the largest economy in the World and surpass US.

    In PPP, which is meaningless on the international stage.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  NationalRus on Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:19 pm

    Mike E wrote:
    Hannibal Barca wrote:You people fail to realize. China is so strong that she is barely started yet. She is about the level USandA was prior to the civil war, a good 100 years up yet.
    When they will reach their climax, inevitably, will have a few times bigger economy that anyone else.
    Keynesian? Hell, no!
    Not what I'm saying.... China is an economic powerhouse, does this mean they are going to be stable and steadily-grow? - No! They need to have their population be wealthy, not just their government and a couple billionaires here and there. I wouldn't be surprised if there economy is twice the size of the US's in coming decades, but they are a much bigger country... - They need something other than manufacturing, as countries are slowly becoming self-reliant again. At least they have large mineral reserves, which I'd love to see utilized!

    they need to stop devalounig ther currency artificialy, that will maybe slow the (cheap) exports since ther products will become more expensive for importers but internal market will start booming then the strenghing of the currency will lead to more purchasin power of the people, till now they export nearly everything ther produce, and ther own people cant afford it, to a big part becouse ther money is not worth much, but every chinese factory worker who puts this waching-machines together doesnt think "im glad i dont have one of these" of course he wants it! china right now is robbing ther people of wahlth by keeping ther currency low, inflation is also called the invisible tax for a reason

    the second thing they need to strengh ther internal market, strenghing ther currency and giving back wealth to the people is one thing, they need to liberalize the laws specialy in the direction of start up entrepreneurs, the small buisness!!! the big fat cats have ther heaven in china but starting a buisness for normal people is hell!!

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Mike E on Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:43 pm

    TR1 wrote:
    medo wrote:http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-just-overtook-us-worlds-090801574.html

    China is now officially the largest economy in the World and surpass US.

    In PPP, which is meaningless on the international stage.
    Hmmm, and that's why everyone, including the West, use it? lol1

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    China is now officially the largest economy in the World and surpass US.

    Post  higurashihougi on Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:36 am

    @Hannibal: why are you getting angry all over that ????

    I did not say that China is weak. No, China is not weak. It is very strong. It is a global power.

    But the fact is that the wealth gap in China is still very big and the GDP per capita is still not very high.

    Does China have to fix these shortcoming. Yes, of course.

    No country is perfect.

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    China overtakes US as world’s largest economy

    Post  nemrod on Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:12 am


    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/10/08/381500/china-overtakes-us-as-largest-economy/




    The International Monetary Fund says China has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest economy, according to a report.

    The IMF estimates that the size of the US economy is $17.4 trillion, while the Chinese economy comes in at $17.6 trillion, Business Insider reports.

    China’s share of the global economy is 16.48 percent, while the United States accounts for 16.28 percent, the IMF said Tuesday as part of its outlook for the world economic growth.

    These figures are adjusted for the relative costs of living in both countries, known as "purchasing power parity."

    As recently as 2005, the Chinese economy was less than half the size of the US economy.

    Moreover, the IMF projects that China’s economy will be 20 percent bigger than that of the US by 2019.

    China remains the biggest foreign holder of US government debt, holding an estimated $1.27 billion in US Treasury bonds.

    The United States accuses China of lowering the price of its exports by manipulating its currency.

    Earlier this year, China and Russia agreed to a measure to undercut the domination of the US dollar as the international reserve currency by paying each other in domestic currencies.

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    Re: Economy of China:

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:47 pm

    hahahahhahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa I love this man Laughing Laughing Razz Razz

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-10/china-sending-america-message



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