2024 Iran–Israel conflict

I am not sure about this , although you may be right . The problem is the fog of war . No side will freely admit to damages or casualties . If they do then their hands are tied , and they have to respond in kind and get into a fight . It is a matter of an eye for an eye . In case of Iranian missile strike on terror bases in Pakistan , then the Pakistan side claimed women and children killed . But as far as I remember no evidence presented on TV . The Pakistan strike on terror bases in Iran , similarly and allegedly claimed the lives of women and children , according to the Iranians . This time there was photographs of some mud huts in a village that were destroyed !

In case of Israel , there were initial claims in Iranian media of 15 people injured , as a result of missile strikes . With one child dead as missile debris fell on her . And some injured in Jordan for same reason . The Israelis provided hasty fabricated evidence of missile strikes causing little damage . The Iranians could not provide evidence , as they have no access to satellite imaging . The Israeli counter strike is even more mysterious .........smoke and mirrors .

 

Interesting ideas about water and lakes , to capture high speed stuff . This will all work against conventional warheads . But as you mentioned the problem of a nuke earth penetrator strike , turning Earth into plastic flow exists .

Against nuclear bunker busters your options are rather more limited, but actually in terms of tank rounds vs tank armour the lessons appear to suggest thickness and layers and cavities are the best solution...

HESH rounds are big lumps of HE that spread on an armour plates surface and then are detonated... it doesn't penetrate the armour, but sends shockwaves through the armour and the inner surface of the armour flakes off so you get supersonic flakes of your own armour bouncing around inside the tank cutting up things and doing damage.

Spaced armour and layered armour rendered such rounds useless... only the British continued with rifled tank guns to use such rounds... against fortifications they are interesting but even APHE shells that explode inside walls and buildings and barricades outperform HESH so it is largely redundant now.

With high speed penetrators the armour designs tend to try to warp and be reshaped to flex or bend the penetrator to defeat it... layers moving in different directions to shear the penetrator or bend it or make it deflect to another direction or richochet completely.

To stop a shockwave moving through any material one of the best things is an air gap... and actually one of the best ways to try to defeat the enormous energy of a nuclear weapon is again... water... much of the heat of a nuclear explosion and its energy is consumed superheating the water and turning it into steam.

With mining technology the best protected bunker would be 2-3km deep like an old coal mine... if it has a lake on top or a man made reservoir on top all the better, but having multiple levels in this bunker system with the upper few layers being left empty or storing water and then the actual bunker complex below that with multiple entrances and exits would be a very tough nut to crack.

Such bunkers are often built in mountains so you can have multiple hidden exits and entrances as well as ventilation shafts that can all be hidden and disguised... you could build small villiages around each entrance or ventilation shaft to hide its presence... the locals might not even know what is there... it might be a ski resort or base location for local climbers to stay before they try climbing the mountain... a large water body nearby could be used for water supplies... a mining operation that removed useful materials could be reused as the basis for the bunker complex...

Yes ways may exist now or in the future ,  to blunt the Israel nuclear pre- emptive strike on Iranian military and civilian nuclear facility , for a short while . But I am sure that their attack will not be limited in this way , and they will attack towns and cities above ground . Iran will then be defeated in a matter of minutes . There is every indication now that Israelis will continue with ground offensive in Gaza , with the aim of removing Palestinians . It is probable that this will bring about unforseen consequences for the region . A reaction by Turkish or Iran or others , may be reciprocated by a nuclear strike from Israel . No amount of bunker reinforcements will stop this . The only deterrent is nukes on territories that may become a target .

I heard rumours that Pakistan may station nukes in Turkiye as a deterrent . And I think the same will be a good option for Iran too . Of course not as a first strike weapon , but simply as a deterrent against an Israeli nuclear strike . Iranian President is in Pakistan right now ( hint , hint ) . I also read a translation of the supreme leader's speech to armed forces " ...to learn from our enemy and not hesitate for a second ! " There has also been two separate occasions , where officials have clearly hinted that the nuclear fatwa could be revised and that a nuclear test is only a week away , once order given . So that's where things are heading ?







EMP

Sujoy wrote:

nomadski wrote:heard rumours that Pakistan may station nukes in Turkiye as a deterrent . And I think the same will be a good option for Iran too

Far fetched idea. Why will Pakistan deploy nukes in Turkiye when it can be targeted by Israel? Pakistan barely has 200 nukes and they are pointed towards India.

Even Russia with 1000x more nukes than Pakistan will not deploy nukes in Iran.

Yes you may have a point there . A nuclear umbrella does not guarantee security , but it did exist during the cold war and to the present day in Europe . It is not ideal , but anything is better than WW3 right ? Plus Turkiye or Iran only need say 10 nukes each to deter Israelis from contemplating a nuke strike . Israel is very small ! And these nukes need not be permanently stationed , they could be temporary deployments until tensions subside . And Pakistan will not be a target , because it already has nukes . And it could benefit by various economic incentives . Russia too or others can offer this service . These devices can be under multinational observation to guarantee no first strike or pre-emptive strike . In Syria , when the Yanks attacked with cruise missiles , the idea of moving Russian nukes to the PG was being talked about . So not entirely a crazy idea . Good for Europe , Good for ME ?

The Israelis are stronger or act more strongly . They admit to low interception . They did not have to do this . They attack with more advanced weapons . They use nuke - EMP . The Iranians are weaker or act weakly . They admit no attack at all . They did not have to do this . They attack with less advanced conventional weapons . They use old Missiles with conventional warhead . Right now the powers that be in Iran , are busy distracting public attention away from the Israeli counter- attack ! They resurrected the broken bones of a victim of state security , a young woman assaulted and dropped from a building . An old story suddenly appeared in BBC . The Iranians instead of gently ignoring this story , ran with it with a prolonged and  grandiose coverage ! Yet they claim , this ( the news story by BBC ) was the work of the Israelis ! They want to distract attention from Gaza ! But why are you covering it so much ? You want to distract from the EMP in Isfahan ? The Israelis are stronger .