Russian special military operation in Ukraine #54

How many Ukrainians have left their country? I'll tell you something, in Buenos Aires (I don't live there but I know) it is full of Ukrainian women, some with their male ukros partners. Since they are white and blonde, and this is a very racist country, they are well received. While my country is 50 percent poor, it receives these stupid people without restrictions.
They all seem to portray a liberal life without economic worries. Nationalist propaganda, homesexual woke propaganda. I have two theories: either they are couples of criminals from Azov or they are cowards with money who escaped from their country.
There must also be Russians who escaped military service. Both deserve my deepest contempt.
These people are trash. Imagine that England invaded Argentina and I went to live in Germany or Italy, and left my people.
I don't want argentine children to grow up or have these ukros faggots around them. These people should be expelled.

This is some other user's words and not mine from kiwi farms.

With the front being the way it is we have not seen this much movement since 2022. This phase of the war looks like the early phase of the war after the bait and switch with the peace deal but before Ukraine had managed to finish mobilization. The difference now is there is no way Ukraine can mobilize to fix their problems.

I'd thought I take the opportunity to discuss a general picture of how things might go in a more detailed manner than I have before and discuss the maneuver warfare question.

When armies collapse it doesn't happen all of the sudden. It is a slow process which culminates in the army being able to give ineffectual resistance. Ukraine is in the process of collapsing right now but they are still able to give some resistance which results in Russian Casualties and means Russia can't simply do whatever they want whenever they want. I think this is going to result in a situation not too unlike Avdeevka/Bakhmut/Soledar where Ukrainians can't retreat and eventually get bottled up into cities. We have seen that song and dance before so I won't discuss that too much.

The next place something like that is going to happen is probably here. This war is really starting to bring up comparisons to 2014. (my prediction about Siversk appears to be wrong though I made it to test a theory). Anyway this is one of the last big and really strong defensive lines left in the Donbass. It is the last line but the other ones are weaker and easier to take. This will be a hard fight that is probably going to take at least a month or so. There will still be movement in the south and it may even be quick and impressive but I think this will eventually turn into the main show.


But once that is done and some of the other defensive lines in the south are taken Ukraine will be much more open to attack. If reports about the situation west of Avdeevka are true Ukraine is having trouble having infantry even construct basic trenches because they keep getting harassed by drones.

Taking one part of a line invalidates the rest of the line unless it has another line bisecting it that prevents the Russians from moving horizontally. This lines definitely make things take longer.



Which brings up something I think might happen as this war develops. Ukrainians without fortifications will be extremely vulnerable out in the open. The obvious thing to do and what Ukrainians have done in the past is retreat to cities and use them as Ersatz fortifications. This will eventually leave Russia with a decision to make once it starts getting to places like Dnipro, Poltava and Kharkov. Does Russia spend a lot time and resources taking those cities or do they bypass them. I am leaning towards Russia eventually bypassing those cities and leaving a small amount of troops surrounding the city and slowly destroy the Ukrainian defenders over time rather than stopping to take the city and then keep going.

I think Russia will do this because they want to maximize the pressure they put on Ukraine. The slower they move the more time Ukraine has to train up troops and try and build new defensives.

Which brings me into the question of is Maneuver war still possible? My answer to that is yes but probably not in the WW2 Germans surrounding everyone in a blitzkrieg manner. Driving a narrow line through enemy territory is a bad idea. The problem is simply that the more you drive a deep but narrow line into the enemy the more and more you open yourself up to enemy fire. Perimeter minimization comes into play here.

If that is true why had Russia had such a hard time implementing it? This is the impetuous that made me write this. The reason Russia has had so much trouble in the Donbass is because it is incredibly Urban. This is what made it possible for Ukraine to build fortifications. Look at the Donbas and how many cities it has. Once Russia breaks out of the Donbas it will be much easier to just drive north and capture everything. There will be hardly any cities in the way. It will also help that Ukraine will be degraded to all hell by the time Russia gets here.

How high does a blimp has to fly , if carrying Radar , to detect missile launch from enemy border ? Much cheaper to fly than plane . Can have honeycomb Kevlar helium pockets , to withstand occasional drone hits . Can have emergency chute if blimp crashing to save Radar . Can have back up balloons to inflate if loosing altitude . Light weight Radar , with metal bits replaced with composites ! Radar can be internal to blimp structure .

An airship could have a structure made of super light weight non flammable composite materials, internally it will have hydrogen bags but the airspace between those bags could be purged with nitrogen gas, which means even if you throw a road flare in there it would not burn the hydrogen because there would be no oxygen to burn. Nitrogen is inert and makes up 70 percent of the atmosphere already.

Building radar antenna for long wave radar into the structure of the airship would be easy... the heat generated when it is radiating would boost the altitude of the airship.

The antenna could be dozens of metres wide and long.

You could hang 5km long wires from the airship that could be used as an ultra low frequency antenna to communicate with submarines hundreds of metres underwater.

With solar panels and electric motors and hydrogen fuel cells and modern lithium batteries your airship could operate for months at a time and would be very hard to shoot down. You could have hydrogen stored as water ballast and if the airship gets hit electrical power could convert the water ballast (dragging the airship down) into hydrogen that could be pumped into spare bags to generate lift even in areas damaged by a hit from a missile or weapon.

The result of a hit could be a slow descent and landing allowing people and material to be easily recovered. Fixing the damaged structures and replacing the damaged hydrogen filled bags and it could be operational again in hours.

The problem is that there aren't a lot of these planes. Maybe only 4 or 5 left with the military. This is a serious loss for the Russian military.

It was a transport, not an AWACS aircraft. It is certainly a loss, but nothing like the loss of the rapidly retreating Kiev forces on the front line right now.

Even if the US signed the 60 billion aide... there are no weapons to buy and no ammo to use in them that can be bought with this money and sent to the front line.

Even if they offered them a trillion US dollars it does not matter because it will disappear into bank accounts and skipped around the world till the music stops.

So the real figure for Russian losses is still around 50,000.

Which is too many, but I don't see how they could have made it less.

The important thing is to keep going so as to not make their sacrifice worthless, and to remember this was the west that created this situation... they pushed it in this direction... but because of Russian actions they didn't get more Russian dead and the Russian economy in collapse and Putin out of office.

Lets hope they pay for that.

Just like I said in my previous post. It often looks as if the kremlins are programmed to think and act in a pre-determined way. They cannot help or change themselves. This is what they are.

Let them have the body... who cares. They will make up what they pretend killed him with or without the body.

Refusing to release the body would look rather more suspicious than any shit the western governments can make up... and they are going to tell lies whether they get the body or not.

The truth is traversing open fields also makes you vulnerable to drone attacks.

True, but troops in the open are more vulnerable to artillery and gun fire than troops in vehicles. They also move slower and carry what they need which reduces their ammo capacity and weapon capacity.

Helicopters and aircraft and artillery and drones will sweep open areas with fire and be difficult for the Orcs to deal with.

Il-22 was it.

Il-20M recon plane.

It is a fake, the voice of mother was generated with bad quality because neural model had a little samples.

Sure, anything that doesn´t fit the western narrative of an event is fake. 
Wife and Mother are natural enemies. 

Who is he going to believe, some telegramer or his own lying eyes?

Like that joke about two russian soldiers meeting in the ruins of Washington.
First soldier: Why so sad?
Reply: I heard we lost the propaganda war.

This is after successes in Rabotino, and the Lastochkino settlement

All those "Experts" with their Telegram channels had their butts handed to them about Rabotino.
At one day they "report" that all russian attacks failed. Ukros are in control.
24h later the whole town is under russian control.

It seems there is still power in Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities.

Russia  needs to continue striking essential targets like power plants, food storage and drinking water facilities to impose more costs, despair and suffering to the Ukro Nazis

JohninMK wrote:Sea Baby

Russia should produce their own improved version of these drones with more explosive power, name it Sea Stalker, and then send hundreds to the Houthis to target both NATzO merchant and navy vessels in the Red sea

A curious fact is that the Russians did not eliminate these American mercenaries, despite the fact that mercenaries are not covered by the Geneva Convention.

But the Americans would have shown no mercy to the Russians if the roles were reversed.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:How many Ukrainians have left their country? I'll tell you something, in Buenos Aires (I don't live there but I know) it is full of Ukrainian women, some with their male ukros partners. Since they are white and blonde, and this is a very racist country, they are well received. While my country is 50 percent poor, it receives these stupid people without restrictions.
They all seem to portray a liberal life without economic worries. Nationalist propaganda, homesexual woke propaganda. I have two theories: either they are couples of criminals from Azov or they are cowards with money who escaped from their country.
There must also be Russians who escaped military service. Both deserve my deepest contempt.
These people are trash. Imagine that England invaded Argentina and I went to live in Germany or Italy, and left my people.
I don't want argentine children to grow up or have these ukros faggots around them. These people should be expelled.

I don't consider any Ukrainian who fled vs serving those twits in power, to be a coward. Any person from dirt poor country with 40m people that will gladly go fight against a powerful nation like Russia is a fool with no self worth.

Sujoy wrote:A curious fact is that the Russians did not eliminate these American mercenaries, despite the fact that mercenaries are not covered by the Geneva Convention.

But the Americans would have shown no mercy to the Russians if the roles were reversed.

https://x.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1761551829458887138?s=20

They are valuable for prisoner exchanges with the Americans.

PhSt wrote:
Russia should produce their own improved version of these drones with more explosive power, name it Sea Stalker, and then send hundreds to the Houthis to target both NATzO merchant and navy vessels in the Red sea

Houthis have used underwater unmanned drones and Iran should be ahead of Russia when it comes to both implementation and production. There was a good discussion about Russia actually targeting ships transporting Ukrainian grain with drones instead. Houthis are doing just fine

Question for the board. While the opinion here its this is a war on Russia, is it possible that it is a war on Slavs? That is why Europe goes along so willingly?