Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36

To Airbornewolf
Do you have 1080p version of the last video(4th one)?
Because it is very rare to see a krasnopol shell used on MSTA-B(actually my first time).
Thanks...

@Xeno,

I can not PM you. so ill post it here.
I do not have the 1080P version.
Zvezda uploaded an 854 by 480 resolution version

you can choose to download the Odysee version.
Or the original file i downloaded that you can find in the link Below:

https://easyupload.io/6fslfo

So once in the air, the shell uses fins (I assume the last section of that shell contains collapsed fins) and Glonass to guide itself to the target? How do you program the target coordinates?

Never trust Western imperialists...they lie effortlessly.

Estonia is suicidal it seems lol...

Estonia could close its sovereign waters yes, but not Finlands, I believe the center is also international waters, unless by close they mean prevent Russian ships from going in or out with force? in which case yes depending on how they did it, that could very well be considered a dec of war

Close with what ? No air force. No navy.

So once in the air, the shell uses fins (I assume the last section of that shell contains collapsed fins) and Glonass to guide itself to the target? How do you program the target coordinates?

Nope, it is laser guided round. Semi-active, the target must be illuminated.

ALAMO wrote:Once the Russians will reach Transdnistria, they will control the Danube delta. The
The Danube is an exterritorial water artery that can be freely passed by any country in the river flow.
No country can block it.
That would mean water access to both Hungary and Serbia, for both Russian and other friendly traffic.

You had me all excited there for a moment, but unfortunately, looking at the Danube Convention it seems that

Article 30 wrote:Navigation of the Danube by the naval vessels of any non-Danubian country shall be
prohibited.
The naval vessels of Danubian States may not navigate the Danube beyond the frontiers
of the respective countries whose flags they fly save by arrangement between the Danubian States
concerned.

So Russia would still need to negotiate with NATO and EU member Romania to get free navigation access to Serbia if I understand correctly...better than the status quo for sure but no guarantee.

AZ
@AZgeopolitics
The situation in the Donetsk-Zaporozhye direction as of 18.00 on January 23, 2023
In the Zaporozhye area, Russian units squeezed out the forces of the 3rd battalion of the 65th ombr of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the village of Kam'yans'ke.


Does the front slowly break together for the fascists?

So Russia would still need to negotiate with NATO and EU member Romania to get free navigation access to Serbia if I understand correctly...better than the status quo for sure but no guarantee.

In that case Russia will be in control of the Danube delta. Which means it will control the flow of goods from and into the river from the Black Sea.
Nice position to negotiate.


Russian spy found in Bidens nursing home.

VDV guys

There is another entry exit to the black sea for the Danube called Danube canal, in Rumenia, south of the the Danube delta.

But yeah, if Russia organises a referendum also for oDessa region, she will become a Danube country and other Danube country could not stop her ships.

Of course there is a matter of recognition of the entry of Odessa region in Russia, but in case of issues Russia can consider those act of piracy and behave the same way agisnt rumenian ships in the black sea.

"Naval vessles" is a sole name of a military ship.

The only issue is, that being a member of  the Commision, with the dissolution of the USSR Russia is not de facto a Danube country.
So it is a kind of lawful paradox to be resolved by Russia later I guess, as I have no idea if the Russian ships were operating along the Danube before the war.
Anyway, the issue is secondary I guess because even if the thing is not clear for Russia, Serbian or Hungarian transport ships of any kind can operate freely along the entire Danube flow.
How long it takes to register some river flotilla redirected from the Volga under Hungarian banner?

The Blockade is not possible because there is a zone which is international. The Russian Air Force often flies quite acurate due to this.

If a blocking is made, including the international waters, this is an act of war!

"There is another entry exit to the black sea for the Danube called Danube canal, in Rumenia, south of the the Danube delta.

But yeah, if Russia organises a referendum also for oDessa region, she will become a Danube country and other Danube country could not stop her ships.

Of course there is a matter of recognition of the entry of Odessa region in Russia, but in case of issues Russia can consider those act of piracy and behave the same way agisnt rumenian ships in the black sea."

To be frank, that's a very cherry picked view, all the other countries would need to recognize Odessa as such and at that point it becomes a real messy ordeal

Not as u presented, but for the maritime borders things looks like this :



And still is considered international waters.

To be frank, that's a very cherry picked view, all the other countries would need to recognize Odessa as such and at that point it becomes a real messy ordeal

It is irrelevant.
First, we don't know the duality of Russia's position in the Commission itself. They are a legal heir of the Soviet Union, bonded with tons of internationally accepted deals and papers.
Second, they will be a de facto Danube country, occupying a river delta - if denied the passage they can just give back the favor to Romanians, closing their canals.
Third, other countries being a commission members don't have any juridical restrictions, like Hungary or Serbia. You can just register a flotilla under their banner, and the case is closed.
Fourth, Russkie operate an enormous river flotilla that is used for communication & transportation at the entire Siberian wastelands. They have skilled personnel, ships of all the types, some of them would be actually much too big for Danube. And they have a huge river ships construction business that produces tens of ships each month. If only decided, they will fill the Danube with ships so you can walk from Izmail to Vienna with a dry feet.

So Russia would still need to negotiate with NATO and EU member Romania to get free navigation access to Serbia if I understand correctly...better than the status quo for sure but no guarantee.

Romania will not allow Russian anything through

It has its own claims on Moldova (where Romanian volunteers fought against Russian volunteers in the 90s Pridnestrovie war), and also has territorial claims from Hungary that it's reliant on NATO for to shore up against. Especially due to that later reason, the risk is that it will fight tooth and nail for NATO and to avoid being closed in by Russia from the north and left near isolated. Although I think if Russia shows up to their border in force and NATO is clearly not achieving anything against them, then perhaps the same thing could happen as happened in 1944. But don't bet on it.

Only way for Russia to access Serbia and potentially deeper into Europe is to reach the Ukraine's border with Hungary. That's a hell of a long way, and probably what the Polish/NATO threat to intervene in the Ukraine is actually to ward off against to a large extent; not taking back some Lvov or whatever.
Not that it shouldn't be done if it comes down to a full conquest of the Ukraine that keeps getting pumped up with NATO weapons and then interventions and the radicalization planned for it takes full hold

However it may be easier to bank on a collapse of Ukrainian morale and find someone in the Ukraine to negotiate with, neutralize this country and get it out of the war, taking just the territories Russia has annexed already where altogether it has more support than not.
In this case we will witness a defeat of NATO's plans, and this in turn will produce ramifications for NATO's eastern members anyway, with Turkey's tensions with the rest of NATO growing, and Bulgaria's/Greece's govt. and support of the Ukraine being unpopular there. Serbia can be reached from that direction instead.

ALAMO wrote:"Naval vessles" is a sole name of a military ship.

Good point! You are correct. There is indeed free navigation "for the nationals, vessels of commerce and goods of all States." (Article 1), while Article 30 refers solely to military vessels (and e.g. Article 28 to customs and other police vessels); the thing preventing Russian merchant ships from sailing up and down the Danube right now, then, is that they would need to cross into the territorial waters of Ukraine or Romania first, before entering the river. Grabbing Odessa oblast would fix that.

It is thus indeed as you say, that civilian vessels would have full access to Serbia and Hungary etc.; I'm not sure exactly how Romania could protest this legally as well, since the allegedly (from their perspective) illegal part would be for the relevant vessels crossing the (allegedly) Ukrainian territorial waters to get into the Danube, but once they are in the Danube it is legal again...and those parts that would need to be crossed to get into the Danube would not be Romanian territory. Furthermore, any Serbian merchant vessel could sail down the Danube to pick up Russian goods from the Reni port and then sail back up to Beograd again (as ALAMO pointed out). Very nice!

Romania does not need NATO to fight off Hungary.

Even the best ever king of the Hungarian Kingdom was a Romanian (Matthias Corvinus).


Unless Romania does something really stupid, like giving away its armaments to Ukraine.

Romania will not allow Russian anything through

There is not much they can or can't bro.
If they will hamper access to their part of a Danube waterway, Russkie can pay back.
I have looked at the two canals they have there. One seems of touristic origin. The other is bigger, yet there is no infrastructure there. Nothing, just some wild swamp-like area. I have watched some document a while ago about that area, and people there live from fishing and collecting cane. One of the poorest areas of Romania, so imagine the combo of "the poorest" and "Romania".
And we talk the situation when we consider the Russian status as a Danube nation under the question - we don't know that.
It can be resolved at any moment with changing the flag.
The only thing Romanians can potentially do is make obstacles of the custom nature - yet it is clearly stated into documents also.
The situation as a whole and its potential follow up, is VERY interesting for the entire region. It can swift the balance if yu ask me.

ALAMO wrote:The only thing Romanians can potentially do is make obstacles of the custom nature - yet it is clearly stated into documents also.

Yup, Article 27:

When both banks of the Danube belong to the same State, the latter shall have the right to
place goods in transit under seal or in charge of the customs officers. Such State shall also be
entitled to require the master or owner of a vessel to make a written declaration stating only
whether or not he is carrying goods the importation of which is prohibited by that State, but shall
not be entitled to prohibit the transit of such goods. These formalities shall not entail an
inspection of the cargo or delay its transit.

So they can prevent unloading in Romanian ports, but not transit as per the Danube Convention.

I guess this whole discussion is academic anyway

Because of course Serbia itself is a real Danube nation, and can always use its own ships to sail and deliver or bring back whatever goods from the Odessa region. No questions asked. If the Romanians try to block them, then they can just block Romania's own access via the Danube through their own territory to Europe.