Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

nomadski wrote:
Kherson is no different to other recent tactical withdrawals by Russia . The only difference is that by moving troops behind the River , then defence becomes far cheaper and easier , compared to say other places . And also Kherson is a Russian city , only if Russians allow it to be a city . I am sure now that without civilians , it can turn into a deadly ground and scorched Earth for the other side , devoid of real value . That only leaves the territory lost around the city . But since this area is on the other side of the River , then capturing and maintaining it , over long term , becomes very expensive . Much cheaper to build new Kherson on the Russian side , than defend old Kherson , on the other side .

Since the initial success of SMO , the Ukrs side did manage to gather forces and mount counter- offensives , as I predicted . But these forces were larger and better armed and motivated , than planners had initially predicted . Then the decision was made to increase forces , and this is not yet complete . Once all forces are in place and they start to fight , only then we can say how successful they were . So until this happens , we have to put up with the current situation .

I doubt very much , if Ukrs will be able to fight in the longer term . Their cities will be devoid of population and turned into refugees . The armed forces still hiding in them , can then be destroyed , without killing civilians . They can not carry on with manufacture and industry , without mains electricity , using small generators . Water and food will be in short supply . They will depend completely on outsiders and supplies . But the war they wage , will be on their turf . They will always be on the defensive , with diminishing numbers .....

NATO and the Nazis will sacrifice Ukraine for their own ends . They will not seek peace . Peace for the Nazis  is an acute disease , without a cure . And for NATO , peace is a chronic condition , ultimately leading to death . So Ukraine will be no more . It's people absorbed within EU . The western region a ruin , inhabited by a motley crew of mercenaries and die-hard Nazis , firing the odd missile into the Eastern region . And the East , will turn into a fortress , in a new frontier region .

What about offense? Where can russia attack now? And I dont mean a local attack to take a few hundred meters.

Paul McLeary
@paulmcleary
·
21h
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley says tonight it will it could take Russia "weeks" to pull troops out of Kherson, but "early indicators are that they are doing what they say they are doing."

So much for the "secret peace deal": missiles fly in both directions. The Ukros attacked the bridge again and russian forces are answering.

Big Serge thinks that Surovikin was not happy with the "bridgehead" north of the Dnjepr. He saw it as a failure and wanted to get rid of it.
One more sign that the SMO is steadily turned into a real war.

Can't win a war if you keep retreating. I hope a winter counter-offensive is in the works.

billybatts91 wrote:Can't win a war if you keep retreating. I hope a winter counter-offensive is in the works.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1590811191710187521

Sorry but I call bullshite!

dionis wrote:Russia can't resupply its troops with heavy equipment (and whatever else) one way, but it can get them back over the river the other way without leaving Ukraine with another arsenal to take over? Smells like 90% bullshit.

This shitshow is going to turn into one giant frontline from Zaporozhye to Svatove unless Russia tries something a little more daring - maybe it will once the obvious lack of manpower is fixed in a month or so.

Resupplying under current conditions and under full attack from Ukraine are very different things. They blow the dam. Rain Himars rockets on the pontoon bridges and attack at the same time and you are in a fight for your life. If Ukraine tries to a occupy Kherson it will be at a high price.

JohninMK wrote:Andrei Medvedev writes:

   If we look at Kherson, this is the case. The units defending the city had not rested and regrouped since February. The losses in equipment in the units were very significant and they were not made up for in time. Personnel losses were compensated only with the beginning of mobilization, but at the same time it is necessary to understand that the quality of mobilization training, I will say carefully, sometimes was very poor and did not meet the standards of modern warfare. How, why, because of what, and who is guilty—this is a separate topic for conversation.

   And it is impossible to say that we, here, in TG channels, did not speak about problems with logistics of the Kherson grouping, especially after the destruction of the Antonov bridge. Or about the situation with equipment. How the 126th Brigade received pickup trucks from PMC Wagner, and why this happened, has been discussed by many of my colleagues.

   That said, all the logistical and supply problems did not affect the bravery of the fighters. The units of the 22nd Army Corps, the Rosgvardia, and the 49th Army showed an example of incredible heroism, resilience, and courage.

 

If accurate, then it would appear that the true extent of the losses have not been acknowledged nor the true state of logistics.

Azi wrote:
Russia has always sought recognition, influence and admiration in the European family and this will not go away overnight. The Russian elites are too western, they will certainly have difficulty accepting a loss of quality of life. You could see it in the traitors who fled before the mobilization. There are only a few, but unfortunately these few have good jobs and a relatively large amount of influence.

Putin's ideas and thoughts are good and he is a great man, but the population is not ready for a war in Ukraine. They can only be mobilized en masse if Russia is attacked on a broad front, this indirect and subliminal attack via Ukronazis goes unnoticed by most Russians. It's a hybrid war by NATO against Russia and most people are too dumb to get it. Most Russians will be happy again to buy IPhones, visit Starbucks and vacation in the EU...the rich will be cruising around in their luxury yachts and so on...Unfortunately, that is the sad truth!

It seems that's the point and some guys get it now!

Twitter RWA podcast

RWA podcast wrote:The Russian forces on the right bank were pretty numerous, I’ve seen estimates between 20 and 30 thousand. The Kremlin is deathly afraid of casualties. They are risk-averse to a point that is actively damaging the military campaign.

I’m pretty sure that there was some kind of report from the military that there’s a 1% or 5% or 10% or 50% or whatever chance that a large Russian force could be pressed against the Dnieper with no possibility of supply, leading to encirclement & defeat

I believe that this is also the reason for a lack of serious offensives. For that, you'd have to just send people forward & accept one or another degree of large losses. The Ukrainians don't care & are ready to fight until the biological extermination of fighting-aged men.

Russian society & more importantly the Kremlin are not ready for this. Mass death of soldiers, like I've said before, is, in the eyes of the Kremlin, the biggest threat to political stability in Russia. They believe that huge casualties are worse than strategic defeats.

This is why RU forces are leaving Kherson & this is why there are currently no large-scale offensives. Add to that the risk of a UKR winter offensive reaching the outskirts of Kherson & the fact that only 1/6 of the mobilized are ready to join the war, they decided to do... this.

As for a judgement of this decision, I don't know the probability of the "nightmare scenario" happening. Having seen the Kremlin's actions before, I'd guess a very low chance would have been enough to convince them that it's better to retreat.

Considering that both Prigozhin and Kadyrov have publicly approved of this (as opposed to their reaction to the Kharkov disaster), I believe this decision was highly questionable but likely not 100% the wrong move

This is absolute corecct! That's the reason for EVERYTHING we have seen thus so far!

That is the reason for missing deep strikes with air force!

That is the reason for no amphibic operations with the black sea fleet against Odessa at the beinning of the war!

That is the reason for not defending cities like Liman or Kupiansk against Ukronazis...cities are normally wonderful to defend but with losses!

The Kremlin want to wage a war but won't pay the costs. The currency in every war is blood and the costs in every war is blood for territory!

And that is the reason why we will see more likely a peace deal or a truce and frozen conflict than a offensive next year. The reason for the retreats are not the generals...they doing just their job, the reason lies in the Kremlin. The generals in Russia are professionals and know what they're doing, but they're not given a free hand.

Thank God Putin isn't Zelenskiy and he doesn't throw soldiers into the meat grinder, but he risks NOTHING.

caveat emptor wrote:

Serberus wrote:Not hard to hold something that is not under attack.
Judging by the comments being made now by several Russian officials about willingness to negotiate, that agreement mentioned a day or so ago , or capitulation to be more precise, which included giving up Kherson and paying for restoration while keeping the meagre territories still in Russian hands, may not be so far fetched after all.
Anyway stay sane, till next time

It's interesting to see how this will impact morale of Russian army and society as well as its standing among allies.
 
Поготово ми морамо да се замислимо. Ако се овако тргује са руским земљама не желим ни да помислим како би ми прошли. Туђим курцем је лако глогиње млатити.

Never been happier to sit on the fence than now

I think that for the first time I fully get our neighbours

Smile and wave

Azi wrote:

Saying it in advance just in case: If this is true it's capitulation, plain and simple

Comparatively we gotten a better deal from NATO than this FFS...

No f*cking deals, none! Erase that word from dictionary

Carry on

limb wrote:

What about offense? Where can russia attack now? And I dont mean a local attack to take a few hundred meters.

Anywhere the ground is frozen enough not to hinder the Russian ground forces. Obviously the further away from the equator will freeze sooner.

PapaDragon wrote:

No f*cking deals, none! Erase that word from dictionary

Carry on

Carry on? There isn't much going on apart from territorial gains reversal. It's not even frozen conflict.

Deals also should make sense if made, stopping western weapon supplies is a silly reason. If Russia is worried about supplies, then they should hit the border areas and create highways of death in western Ukraine. It won't stop all supplies, but Zelensky Chi Minh trail will have trouble moving anything heavy, there is no point trusting Kiev or west.

mnztr wrote:

Resupplying under current conditions and under full attack from Ukraine are very different things. They blow the dam. Rain Himars rockets on the pontoon bridges and attack at the same time and you are in a fight for your life. If Ukraine tries to a occupy Kherson it will be at a high price.

They have no ability to blow the dam beyond an on-the-spot explosive rigging operation. That would mean completely overwhelming all Russian forces at BOTH banks of the dam, with the left bank being an impossibility.

Manpower wins wars - sweat and blood. Not fancy toys. Ukraine is showing this now. The USSR showed this in the GPW. If Russia couldn't ferry or airlift over thousands of the mobilized men over a river over last 2 weeks and/or the next 8 weeks, then we deserve the worst outcome in this war. Odessa looks like a dream now.

So Orca had a minor victory!

They targeted supply lines and successfully destroyed them (bridges) and badly damaged the dam. If it breaks it will cause 10-15m tidal wave despite week of drainage efforts.

Russia withdraws in planned and orderly fashion taking all civilians, historical monuments and relics with them as they leave. Minimising casualties and mitigating dam burst plan.

Now ukraine invited to occupy land that dam burst will flood haha. Under eye of Russian drones and all in range of Russian artillery on opposite bank with good defensive positions.

Withdrawal allows redeployment of large VDV units there to lead assaults in winter offensive.

Enough equiptment has arrives at front now for 15 motor rifle divisions.

Russia turning lemons (withdrawal) into lemon juice (manoeuvre warfare, shaping battlefield for winter offensive)

Looks like Russia holds the initiative and is in control to me

As @Hole stated earlier about the Russians taking Zapo first and moving around the back through Krivy Rog etc capturing the dam and this would threaten Ukrainian troops in northern Kherson. Once dam is captured this greatly reduces the threat of Ukrainian blowing it up. Russia will deploy a lot of AD assets thus reducing any missiles and rockets and the very limited Ukrainian air force, and as for HIMARS any missiles that do get through won't be enough to destroy a Soviet dam. Ukrainian troops mission is to retake land captured by Russia, and Russia knows this, zelensky has to push troops forward to take Kherson this will expand their frontline and logistics, and with major rail network destroyed or without electricity this would be a serious strain. Russia knows Ukraine would have blown the dam, and it makes no sense to hang around waiting for that to happen as it would be Russia in the end having to foot the bill for all the water damage in area. Ukraine ain't going to blow the dam while it's troops are there, and if they blow it while retreating then it only makes them look the bad ones and Russia could technically seek damages after the war, and request UN humanitarian relief/aid (although am sure USA would try to block it) Russia couldn't be blamed for blowing the dam as it would make no sense to blow a dam a flood an area you would be taking over. Another point is if Ukrainian troops do take Kherson city this will tie up a lot of Ukrainian troops.

I personally believe there is a bigger plan at play here, and I believe Russia will not only take Kherson, zapo but also Niko and Odessa. Russia knows to neutralise any threat to the black sea it needs to land lock Ukraine. Not only that Russia knows if it fails to liberate pro Russian areas that the ramifications would be horrendous for pro There, the neo Nazis would be out in full swing terrorising them abusing them and anti Russian laws, etc etc would be on a level far greater than we have seen, and this would spread further into neighboring regions. Ukraine, USA UK Romania and Moldova will see this as a great opportunity to remove the semi autonomy from Gagauzia and even threaten an invasion into Transnistria knowing fine well Russia wouldn't be able to do anything. This war is Transnistria and Gagauzia only chance of reunification with Russia they know it, Russia knows it, Moldova Ukraine and the west know it. Once reunification happens this would put Russia in a very good position having the ability to threaten Moldova takeover or turn it into a pro Russian/ puppet state if the west doesn't remove sanctions etc etc. Moldovan leadership have already expressed no desire to fight with Russia and would likely give up instantly, Russia can't afford to let Ukraine keep Kherson, Zapo, Niko, Odessa and I believe anything short of this would not just be a failure on Russias part but a major let down by pro Russians in these areas including Transnistria and Gagauzia. This is the flip side as to what else is at stake.

As already mentioned I believe that there is more to this than meets the eye, and even Ukraine is weary about such moves. I am sure we will see the real motives of such soon.

dionis wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Resupplying under current conditions and under full attack from Ukraine are very different things. They blow the dam. Rain Himars rockets on the pontoon bridges and attack at the same time and you are in a fight for your life. If Ukraine tries to a occupy Kherson it will be at a high price.

They have no ability to blow the dam beyond an on-the-spot explosive rigging operation. That would mean completely overwhelming all Russian forces at BOTH banks of the dam, with the left bank being an impossibility.

Manpower wins wars - sweat and blood. Not fancy toys. Ukraine is showing this now. The USSR showed this in the GPW. If Russia couldn't ferry or airlift over thousands of the mobilized men over a river over last 2 weeks and/or the next 8 weeks, then we deserve the worst outcome in this war. Odessa looks like a dream now.

How do you know that? They can send one of their sea drone loaded with explosives and sink it at the base of the same. An underwater explosion is very damaging. I disagree that manpower wins wars. If the other side is far more advanced then you they can still overcome man power.

Regular wrote:No need to worry much about T-90. Ukrainians have captured T-90s near Kharkov.

In the right hands its only the most dangerous opponent Russian tankers could face.
Ukraine's trash cans had such weak armor that it could be pierced head-on. No challenge at all.
But a Ukrainian T-90 might actually make the Russian gunner work to earn his paycheck.

Regular wrote:
It’s  just a mediocre and flawed tank that is about to be replaced by brand new modern and up to date T-14, nothing NATO doesn’t know about oldie already. Technically speaking, on paper, Oplot is better tank than any T-72 derivative apart from T-90AM. And thanks to lazy TCs, Ukrs have more functioning T-90s than Oplots. Means nothing in the bigger picture

Not the Russians' fault Ukraine couldn't even manage a handful of Oplots so its not a hard bar to clear.

flamming_python wrote:

And who is negotiating with the USA? Russian officials just stated the other day that they require negotiations directly with the Ukraine, not with the USA over the Ukraine.

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Everyone knows this is horseshit. Even before the war they were talking directly with the US. Not even with the EU or NATO. They were making progress with Ukraine and the US kyboshed it. So pointless taking to anyone else other then the USA.

I still hope and pray that the retreat is a trap...french officially say it's a trap...ukrainians say it's a trap...maybe it's a trap?!

Maybe making the enemy think it is a trap is the trap, so when  they don't fall for the trap and do not attack then they fall for the trap and hold their positions till Russia is ready to move when the ground gets hard.

They explained their logic and it makes sense... whether you like it or not.

It should be clear to anyone with a brain cell that the superior side needs no trap and certainly no retreat. Kherson was already meat grinder enough for Ukraine with the current front line.

Except they have used retreats, or manouvers to entice the enemy to overstretch and expose itself to attack multiple times successfully during this conflict... why stop now.

Even withdrawing troops does not mean they wont attack any moves by the orcs to move forward.

I'm a bit hasty...we'll see what happens! Maybe I'm wrong? But as I have already written, from a military point of view, retreat was not necessary...

You are hasty... whether it is a trap or not, and whether the orcs believe it is a trap or not, their withdrawal has probably assured that the dams wont be destroyed to cause flooding of territory they thing they could retake.... perhaps that was their main concern... to avoid that.

What speaks against a trap is the simple fact that there is no real fighting in Kherson.

Why does that speak against a trap? Normal military science suggests you attack where the line is quietest and the enemy forces are least prepared and at their least supported and if they blow those dams any troops there would be isolated and vulnerable with no route to escape from easily other than swimming... if the Russians moved a large force there it would make obvious military sense to try to cut them off and then attack them with everything you have, but removing the forces means taking the area will not be easy because of mobility issues and enemy air control and enemy artillery resources in the area, which would not be aided by flooding the area.

Looks like a dirty deal at the expense of the local population.

**** off with your bullshit inuendo lies... Russia is in a very good position and has no reason to negotiate anything away to anyone... there is no reason to end this conflict now or any time this year... they have the orcs pinned to the table there can be no agreements with these ... they are not trustworthy and the vatican is an extension of the west which has declared a jihad against Russia and Russians so any agreement with them is worthless... the talk from europe about a cold winter and loss of jobs... boo hoo... this is the shit your governments were trying to inflict on Russians by using sanctions and political and social and economic isolation... the poisoner is drinking from the poisoned wine glass... let them enjoy that painful death.

You should apply for a job in Putin's inner circle. You have the critical thinking skills of an acorn squash.

If your critical skills amount to repeating US State Department official news release notes with add ons from Kiev and CNN then I don't much care for critical thinking because your view of critical thinking equates to trolling and flame baiting... which is kinda sad that they fool you like that.

Ironically, captured Russian T-72B3 is towing abandoned Russian T-90.

Not ironic... an indication of the wonderful upgraded Eastern European super tanks they have been getting from HATO... surprised no clown has popped up to tell us how HATO ex Soviet tanks upgraded with new reverse gears and super thermals and optics are the best soviet tanks available anywhere...

May it not be true

Duh... Donbass and Lugansk are Russian territory now... withdraw Russian troops from Russian territory?

Withdraw from Kaliningrad and Kuriles as well?

Better hope it isn't thats because that deal is a big fat L for the russians.

It is not the Russians suggesting it...

Putin sees no future with the west moving forward so there is no value in giving them terms to allow them to save face...

They have always been two faced anyway.

Why would Russia want to take a deal in the first place. Don't get it, really don't.

If they were taking the deal then they would announce that deal as reasons for doing what they are doing... why keep it secret?

Alright you made a lot of false claims, fact is Ukraine still has many many of age men to fight

Untrained and without winter gear...

and NATO stockpiles are just fine and no western armor is failing that even depends what you mean by armor because Ukraine doesn't have western tanks.

Their APCs and IFVs don't really seem to stack up to much... how reliable will they be in winter?

I am not saying it will be a walk in the park, but the situation today is massively different compared to months ago and Russia should be able to relatively easy move forward, especially in an area pretty much adjacent to Russian territory which should give no problems at all in terms of logistics, and air superiority should be - referring to the massive destruction of air defenses - a given.

Russia can move forward through gaps and encircle large groups of Orc soldiers and trap them... they don't need to dig them out of their holes.

You can't just brush aside millennia! Yes, it's true that Russia also has asian roots, not to mention the geography...but the european influence is too big.

You mean in the 30 odd years that Ukraine was turned against their neighbour/brother Russians... how did that happen?

The west has been rejecting Russia and Russians for CENTURIES... even here in New Zealand we have a large artillery gun in our harbour... not to defend against the Japs or the French... it was built to stop the Russians... in 1889.

Russia has always sought recognition, influence and admiration in the European family and this will not go away overnight. The Russian elites are too western, they will certainly have difficulty accepting a loss of quality of life.

Why. French and German over priced shit is just shit... no reason why Russians can't make high quality stuff too.

When they get all their properties and businesses confiscated from them to pay for damage to Kiev I am sure they will be very happy to help their nazi brothers...

Perhaps new anti monopoly laws that prevent anyone owning more than say 10 million in assets of anything.

Spread the wealth...

Putin's ideas and thoughts are good and he is a great man, but the population is not ready for a war in Ukraine.

Sounds like the ideal way to split with the west... Putin could never convince the rich scum to give up holidays to the west or putting their kids to western schools... it takes western sanctions to do that... so in that sense the war is necessary from Russias perspective... even although the only reason it happened was to try to break up Russia and getting Putin overthrown.

It's a hybrid war by NATO against Russia and most people are too dumb to get it. Most Russians will be happy again to buy IPhones, visit Starbucks and vacation in the EU...the rich will be cruising around in their luxury yachts and so on...Unfortunately, that is the sad truth!

But the west thinks it is a win win... if they succeed and break Russia then they get the spoils of the collapse and destruction of that wealthy country... if Russia wins then they only lose a poor broken eastern european country mostly populated with what they would call Russians anyway... when the smoke settles they can go back to selling Russia their shit and buying cheap energy in return... get Russia to pay to fix the pipelines and everything will be fine...

Except it wont... the west wont have anything to do with the final peace treaty, they sabotaged both Minsk agreements and attempts at a peace deal early in the war were cancelled by the west... you talk to the  US to find out what Kiev is thinking and what it will do but you can't trust either to honour any agreement or deal... just look at the food corridor agreement...

As both the HATO and Kiev officials said, this conflict will be decided on the battlefield... when the orc collapse starts it will likely be quick...

Are the troops of Ukroshitstan advancing with Army Group North towards Saint Petersburg, Army Group Center towards Moscow, as well as Army Group South towards Stalingrad - sorry Volgograd ?
Did that superior military equipment FINALLY move from the West to Russia; the indestructible Leopard-2 (except for the goatfuckers), the Rafale (less visible than a black hole in space), the MIM-104 - which has a high chance of hitting the air if nothing else that flies in the air...
Where are those pro-Western retards from the Alamo ZOO to explain the situation to us ?
I wonder what drugs Limb and Carlipson are on...

Limb wrote " What about offense? Where can russia attack now? And I dont mean a local attack to take a few hundred meters. " well I am not military , but I would say now that land reinforcements are available : ( 1 ) The concrete deep fortifications in LDPR , containing the extremist Right sector , should be encircled . They should by now know exact locations by survey . No other land offensives yet , to dilute and weaken this encirclement , allowing as much chance of success , and scoring the all important psychological and political victory now . Small bites are needed , modest aims , using overwhelming force advantage . ( 2 ) I would personally not advance against major cities to capture them , even if populated by Russians . This is very expensive and wasteful of resources . It is best to capture the southern coast of Ukraine by marine landing ( Only a few kilometres advance inland ) and supply . Russia commands the Sea , and supply will be much easier than on land . There is a reason why the Coast was initially settled by Russian Sea - traders ! If Ukraine will then not retreat from Russian cities , I would blockade and starve them to death . They will soon retreat from Russian regions . War ends .