Russian special military operation in Ukraine #21

Regular wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:Looks like the Su34 was overflying right at the moment that a HIMARS launch happened, as the missile system worked to intercept the rockets and HIMARS

The missile was directed to Su34, SAP 14 was not active , due to flight over friendly zone

It's an accident which was bad luck

Very strange. So IFF wasn’t active over friendly territory full of AA systems?

Well at least pilots are ok, jet can be replaced

I think it's more likely the system was targeting the incoming rockets and the SU34 was in the wrong place at the wrong time

Once that missile goes up, it might home on nearest RCS is finds

Arkanghelsk wrote:Looks like the Su34 was overflying right at the moment that a HIMARS launch happened, as the missile system worked to intercept the rockets and HIMARS

The missile was directed to Su34, SAP 14 was not active , due to flight over friendly zone

It's an accident which was bad luck

Statistically this will happen no matter what

Friendly fire is still better than Ukrops getting a jump on them

Pilots are fine, Su-34 is in mass production and inflated petroleum prices will handle the rest

Now back to stomping

Ispan wrote:I am back. Overview of the situation and opposing forces and up to date briefing until today


Let's hope the offensive resumes soon

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/07/18/noticias-de-la-guerra-18-07-2022/

War news 07/18/2022
18 July, 2022 Zhukov

Maps, until July 15

https://kot-ivanov.livejournal.com/22153.html

General situation:

Since the capture of Lisichansk we have been on a pause in operations, while the forces are regrouping and resting, and ammunition and supplies are being brought to the front, the Ukrainians have retreated to a new defensive line at right angles to the initial front line after the Donbass salient has been shortened and shelling and local attacks are barely advancing, although the attrition of Ukrainian troops is considerable by air, missile and artillery attacks, both at the front and in the rear. Although the fronts do not move, Ukrainians suffer hundreds of casualties every day. The Americans have ordered the Kiev puppet regime to hold out as long as necessary in Donbass in order to justify continuing support in money and weapons, at least until the November congressional elections.

On other fronts no news. In Kharkov the Ukrainians are withdrawing forces to send them to shore up Donbass, and in Kherson they are preparing an offensive. Meanwhile the Russians are preparing the new phase of the battle of Donbass.

This brief report explains the problems of the offensive on the Seversk line. It seems that faced with the impossibility of fencing the salient, a frontal battle of attrition is being prepared.

About problems in Seversk by Alexander Kharchenko

The situation near Seversk is not as rosy as many would like. We saw how Grigorovka, was stormed, so we can talk about the course of the struggle in this direction.

To begin with, the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrew their battered troops from Lysychansk to prepared positions. The front is aligned along the Seversk – Soledar – Bakhmut line. This line is easier to defend than the Lisichansk salient.

All glades and forests near Seversk are fortified with trenches. The enemy has effective anti-tank weapons, so tank advances from Russian troops should not be expected here.

The approaches to Seversk are densely mined. Advancing without tanks and without sappers is dangerous. In addition, remote mine planting methods are increasingly being used. Even on already cleared roads, an armored BTR can run out of tires, rolling on "petals" (small plastic anti-personnel mines)

The Ukrainians, thanks to Western support, have highly mobile artillery. They have learned to maneuver their artillery and create the appropriate density of fire in the places of our offensive in the shortest possible time.

It should not be forgotten that after the closure of the Lisichansk cauldron, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief ordered the O (Brave) group to rest. It was these guys who had the greatest successes in recent months, but even the bravest warriors need time to recover.

For me, I would like to add that the war in Ukraine is an artillery war. Hundreds of Orlan 10, Orlan 30 type unmanned aerial vehicles and thousands of ammunition are needed to crush Ukrainian howitzers. Without them, a rapid breakthrough can hardly be counted on.

https://t.me/bayraktar1070/11



Another analyst gives more details about the state of the Ukrainian forces

The enemy's plans and their capabilities

When many experts (who are critical of the special operation) talk about the cunning plans of the Ukrainian command, they make a logical mistake. Speaking about the upcoming planned offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they do not take into account the quality of the Ukrainian infantry. It is worth defending itself in forests and small villages, provided that it is supported by its own artillery, but it is relatively weak in the defense of cities, when the battle takes place at close range, and even weaker in the attack, when it has to get out of the trenches and attack under really terrible Russian artillery fire.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine repeatedly tried counteroffensives, but they were often drowned before they could begin. There were cases of successful actions of the Ukrainian infantry in the attack, for example, near Kharkiv, but this is rather an exception to the rule at the moment.

In no case do I get involved in decision-making and discuss only the current moment. With a significant mass of soldiers in arms, the Ukrainian command is not yet capable of conducting extensive offensive actions. However, this does not mean that they cannot learn.

As for the work of our artillery, I want to say the following. Compared with the beginning of the war, it has become much more accurate. I have something to compare it with and I really see that war is the best university. However, all this applies not only to artillery, I specifically single it out as the main means of destroying the enemy.

A little more about the infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or rather about its quantitative composition. Several waves of mobilization have led to the fact that, despite the general loss of personnel quality, Kiev conducts a constant rotation, which in turn allows it to quickly shift the soldiers on the front line, without bringing the situation to a critical point. Heavy losses affect the moral and psychological state of the units, and in principle, after a couple of weeks on the front line, many of them become incapacitated, and then they infuse fresh blood into them, send exhausted soldiers to to rest in the rear. Therefore, attacks in the deep rear against barracks and training camps are extremely useful.

https://t.me/s/vysokygovorit

About the situation at the front – Igor Strelkov

There are fragmentary reports of some activity of the Russian Armed Forces in the direction of Sumy. The scale and depth of the operation (apparently aimed at preventing further shelling of the territory of the Russian Federation) is not yet known to me, as well as specific priority goals. In any case, this is a tactical operation with limited objectives.

Optimistic reports about the liberation of Seversk and the entry of our units on the outskirts of Soledar turned out to be false. Seversk is still largely in enemy hands. Local battles continue with attempts to advance at the tactical level.

For the past 3 days, the Armed Forces of the DNR have been trying to build on the successes of a month ago (as I have repeatedly noted, interrupted for the transfer of forces to the Lisichansk direction). Attacks on the resort of Kamenka are constantly repelled by the enemy due to the extremely small number of forces that can send "battalions" of the People's Militia of the DNR "worn out to a percentage of their regular strength" to the attack. And also because of the lack of operational artillery support on the battlefield. The enemy repels attack attempts practically only with artillery fire. Today, as far as is reported, attempts at attacks continue, although the attackers themselves (those who are directly under enemy fire) are clear about the negative result of their efforts in advance.

I have no recent information about the Zaporozhe front.

On the Kherson front, a fierce exchange of rocket and artillery attacks is taking place, during which both sides are suffering heavy losses. Judging by the intensity, the main battles of the "third phase of the special operation" are expected here.

Donetsk, Stakhanov, Makeyevka, Gorlovka and several other localities of Donbass are still under regular shelling, despite attempts by the artillery and aviation of the Russian Armed Forces to suppress enemy batteries.

In general, the operational pause continues. Both sides are finishing their preparations for the upcoming battles. Perhaps everyone is "waiting for the first move" from the opponent's side.



Summary of the day 18 July - Colonel Cassad

(improved and revised translation)

1. Seversk.

Fighting for the dominant heights in the surroundings of the city. Statements about the occupation of Seversk are still ahead of events. The key position is not the city itself, but the heights that surround it. The enemy is trying to cling to them, despite the attacks of Russian troops.
Fights on Serebryanka and Verkhnekamenskoye, Ivano-Darivka. The enemy is moving reserves here from the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

2. Soledar.
Fighting on Yakovlevka, Belogorovka and Berestovoy, so far without a significant breakthrough to Soledar.
Fighting in the area between Stryapovka and Soledar and on the western outskirts of Novaya Kamenka. The Soledar-Seversk highway is under Russian control, but it is still accessible for the movement of enemy troops.

3. Artemovsk.
Battles near Pokrovsky and Veselaya Dolina. Artemivsk is being bombed. Artillery and aviation shelling- on Krasnaya Gora, Kurdyumovka, Chas Yar. In the area of the Uglegorskaya thermal power plant - unchanged.

(a Ukrainian garrison has been besieged in this plant for weeks, the reason they hold out so long is that they avoid bombing the plant to capture it intact)

Kodema and Semigorye are still in the hands of the enemy. From the Artemivsk area, the enemy attacks with long-range rockets deep in the rear of the territory of the MRL (Stakhanov, Alchevsk, and Luhansk were attacked). The main targets are fuel depots, ammunition depots and command posts.
Russian artillery and aviation attack concentrations of troops, materiel, artillery and rocket launchers.
The "friendly fire" shot down one of our aircraft (presumably Su-34), the pilots survived.

4. Slavyansk.
Fighting positions in the area of Dolina, Sidorov, Prishib. Air and rocket attacks on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. In Konstantinovka, up to 250 foreign mercenaries and a large number of vehicles were destroyed.

In the Western media: after the loss of Seversk and Soledar, the battles for the agglomeration of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk and Artemovsk will be decisive for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces are completing their regrouping and preparing to launch a major offensive. Shoigu's visit to the front with an inspection is linked precisely to the upcoming big events.

5. Kharkiv.
Fighting positions in the area of Uda, Verkhniye Prokhody, Tsupovka, Dementievka, Verkhny Saltov. In response to the attacks on Kazachya Lopan and Kupyansk, Russian Forces shelled Kharkov, Chuguyev and Ukrainian positions on the northern outskirts of Kharkpv.
The Russian army is intensifying operations in the border areas of the Sumy region, from where the border forces of the Belgorod and Kursk regions were shelled and in several attacks prisoners were taken. Shelling in the Sumy region is gradually intensifying.

6. Izyum.
The trench warfare on Bolshaya Kamyshevakha and Kurulka are complemented by Ukrainian attempts to show activity on Balakleya. The enemy does not conduct large-scale actions against the flank of the Izyum group of the ruos army due to the inability to ensure stable crossings across the Seversky Donets River. The Russians frequently destroy makeshift pontoons and bridges across the river, and the activity of patrols on the other bank is of limited importance.

7. Avdeyevka.
Positional battles near Kamenka, Novoselka-2, Novobakhmutovka and New York. The Avdeyevka-Kostiantynivka highway has been cut off in several places, but the enemy could no longer use it for a long time. The Orlovka-Avdeyevka roadis under enemy control, so there can be no talk of the encirclement of Avdeyevka. There are no serious developments in the Krasnogorovka area. Attacks are continuing to silence or destroy enemy artillery pieces and rocket launchers attacking Donetsk, Makeyevka, Gorlovka and Yasynuvata. According to the official report, a few have been destroyed.

The Ukrainian army, in addition to the terrorist attacks on Donetsk, continues to launch targeted attacks with large-caliber missiles and rockets against the command and logistics infrastructure of the Russian army and allies.

8. Ugledar.
It follows the static war in the area of Ugledar, Velikaya Novoselovka, Novomikhailovka and Maryinka. The enemy, after an unsuccessful attempt to attack in the Ugledar area, again went on the defensive.

9. Zaporozhe.
On the line Kamenskoye-Orekhov-Gulyai-Pole-Velikaya Novoseloveka no novelty. Positional battles continue for the villages between Gulai-Pole and Velikaya Novoselovka. The enemy continues to slowly accumulate troops in the area of Zaporozhe, Orekhov and Gulyai-Pole, trying to create the pre-bases for moving to the attack.
Attacks on Novy Kakhovka and drone strikes on Energodar are also continuing. The Russian Armed Forces are firing on the enemy in the Zaporozhee area. Residents of the regional capital are asked to leave the city in order to avoid the role of another "human shield".

10. Nikolayev.
The enemy continues to press in the Krivoy Rog and Nikopol directions in the area of Potemkino and Ivanovka. As before, this direction is more likely for a possible offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in accordance with the requirements of the United States and NATO to organize an offensive with operational and tactical objectives before the beginning of autumn.
The Russian Armed Forces are engaged in strengthening defensive positions and systematically attacking enemy forces in areas that are a potential threat. In the direction of Nikolayev no novelty. Rocket attacks are carried out against Nikolayev almost daily, inflicting losses that disorganize enemy activity in the direction of Kherson.

Isos wrote:

This gives a shit ton of information to NATO. With all the footages they showed you can easily create a diagram of the missile's range according to speed and altitude as well as target's speed and altitude.

They keep releasing such videos and giving away secrets.

Nope, Russians release those videos for purpose. Imagine NATO analyst since Russians show such stuff this means their actual capabilities are much more advanced ...

The last video released with three r-77-1 missiles released showed the release at around 60 klicks. This is very good. Yes they could probably stretch ut out to 70/80 klicks against a fighter but that would probably fail to connect.

Everything I've seen of these so far is pretty astounding. They are sounding quite effective. Fighter pilots are almost never going to launch at maximum range unless it is first salvo against a rival who has equal or better weaponry and wishes to spam missiles to cause the enemy to break up and turn to evade

Edit: had to add a thought