Syrian War: News #23

Where are these Iranian AD systems located?

Operation Claw-Sword: Erdogan’s Big New Game in Syria, by Pepe Escobar for Asia Times. 11.27.2022.

There’s another Special Military Operation on the market. No, it’s not Russia “denazifying” and “demilitarizing” Ukraine – and, therefore, it’s no wonder that this other operation is not ruffling feathers across the collective West.

Operation Claw-Sword was launched by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as revenge – highly emotional and concerted – for Kurdish terrorist attacks against Turkish citizens. Some of the missiles that Ankara launched in this aerial campaign carried the names of Turkish victims.

The official Ankara spin is that the Turkish Armed Forces fully achieved their “air operation objectives” in the north of Syria and in Iraqi Kurdistan, and made those responsible for the terror attack against civilians in Istanbul’s Istiklal pedestrian street pay in “multitudes.”

And this is supposed to be just the first stage. For the third time in 2022, Sultan Erdogan is also promising a ground invasion of Kurdish-held territories in Syria.

However, according to diplomatic sources, that’s not going to happen – even as scores of Turkish experts are adamant that the invasion is needed sooner rather than later.

The wily Sultan is caught between his electorate, which favors an invasion, and his extremely nuanced relations with Russia – which encompass a large geopolitical and geo-economic arc.

He well knows that Moscow can apply all manner of pressure levers to dissuade him. For instance, Russia at the last minute annulled the weekly dispatch of a joint Russo-Turkish patrol in Ain al Arab that was taking place on Mondays.

Ain al Arab is a highly strategic territory: the missing link, east of the Euphrates, capable of offering continuity between Idlib and Ras al Ayn, occupied by dodgy Turkish-aligned gangs near the Turkish border.

Erdogan knows he can’t jeopardize his positioning as potential EU-Russia mediator while obtaining maximum profit from bypassing the anti-Russian embargo-sanctions combo.

The Sultan, juggling multiple serious dossiers, is deeply convinced that he’s got what it takes to bring Russia and NATO to the negotiating table and, ultimately, end the war in Ukraine.

In parallel, he thinks he may stay on top of Turkey-Israel relations; a rapprochement with Damascus; the sensitive internal situation in Iran; Turkey-Azerbaijan relations; the non-stop metamorphoses across the Mediterranean; and the drive towards Eurasia integration.

He’s hedging all his bets between NATO and Eurasia.

'Close down all of our southern borders’

The green light for Claw-Sword came from Erdogan while he was on his presidential plane, returning from the G20 in Bali. That happened only one day after he had met US President Joe Biden where, according to a presidential Erdogan statement, the subject had not come up.

“We held no meeting with Mr Biden or [Russian President Vladimir] Putin regarding the operation. They both already know that we can do such things at any moment in this region,” the statement said.

Washington not getting briefed on Claw-Sword mirrored Erdogan not getting invited to an extraordinary G7-NATO meeting in Bali, on the sidelines of the G20.

That meeting was called by the White House to deal with the by-now notorious Ukrainian S-300 missile that fell in Polish territory. At the time, no one at the table had any conclusive evidence about what happened. And Turkey was not even invited to the table – which profoundly incensed the Sultan.

So it’s no wonder Erdogan, mid-week, said that Claw-Sword was “just the beginning.” Addressing AKP party lawmakers in Parliament, he said Turkey is determined to “close down all of our southern borders … with a security corridor that will prevent the possibility of attacks on our country.”

The ground invasion promise remains: It will begin “at the most convenient time for us” and will target the regions of Tel Rifaat, Mambij and Kobane, which the Sultan called “sources of trouble.”

Ankara has already wreaked havoc, using drones, on the main headquarters of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, whose commanders believe the main target of a potential Turkish ground invasion would be Kobane.

Significantly, this is the first time a Turkish drone targeted an area extremely close to a US base. And Kobane is highly symbolic: the place where the Americans sealed a collaboration with Syrian Kurds to – in theory – fight ISIS.

And that explains why the Syrian Kurds are appalled by the American non-response to the Turkish strikes. They blame – who else? – the Sultan for stoking “nationalist sentiments” ahead of the 2023 elections, which Erdogan now stands a great chance to win despite the catastrophic state of the Turkish economy.

As it stands, there is no Turkish troop buildup near Kobane – just airstrikes. Which brings us to the all-important Russian factor.

Manbij and Tel Rifaat, west of the Euphrates, are much more important for Russia than Kobane, because they are both vital for the defense of Aleppo against possible Salafi-jihadi attacks.

What may potentially happen in the near future makes the situation even murkier. Ankara intel may use Hayat Tahrir al-Sham jihadis – which have already taken over parts of Afrin – as a sort of “vanguard” in a ground invasion of Syrian Kurd territory.

Selling stolen Syrian oil to Turkey

The current fog of war includes the notion that the Russians may have sold out the Kurds by leaving them exposed to Turkish bombing. That does not hold – because Russia’s influence over Syrian Kurd territory is negligible compared with the US’s. Only the Americans could “sell out” the Kurds.

The more things change, the more they remain the same in Syria. It could all be summarized as a monumental impasse. This gets even more surrealist because, in effect, Ankara and Moscow have already found the solution for the Syrian tragedy.

The problem is the presence of American forces – essentially protecting those shabby convoys stealing Syrian oil. Russians and Syrians always discuss it. The conclusion is that the Americans are staying by inertia. They do it because they can. And Damascus is powerless to expel them.

The Sultan plays the whole thing with consummate cynicism – in geopolitics and geo-economics. Most of what is unresolved in Syria revolves around territories occupied by de facto gangs that call themselves Kurds, protected by the US. They traffic Syrian oil to resell it mostly to … Turkey.

And then, in a flash, armed gangs that call themselves Kurds may simply abandon their “anti-terrorist” fight by … releasing the terrorists they apprehended, thus increasing the “terrorist threat” all over northeast Syria. They blame – who else? – Turkey. In parallel, the Americans increase financial aid to these armed gangs under the pretext of a “war on terror.”

The distinction between “armed gangs” and “terrorists” is of course razor thin. What matters most of all to Erdogan is that he can use the Kurds as a currency in trade negotiations linked to bypassing anti-Russian embargoes and sanctions.

And that explains why the Sultan may decide to bomb Syrian territory whenever he sees fit, despite any condemnation by Washington or Moscow. The Russians once in a while retake the initiative on the ground – as happened during the Idlib campaign in 2020 when Russians bombed the Turkish military forces that were providing “assistance” to Salafi-jihadis.

Now a game-changer may be on the cards. The Turkish Army bombed the al-Omar oilfield north of Deir ez-Zor. What this means in practice is that Ankara is now destroying no less than the oil infrastructure of the much-lauded “Kurdish autonomy.”

This infrastructure has been cynically exploited by the US when it comes to the oil that reaches the border with Iraq in Iraqi Kurdistan. So in a sense, Ankara is striking against Syrian Kurds and simultaneously against American robbery of Syrian oil.

The definitive game-changer may be approaching. That will be the meeting between Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad, (Remember the decade-long refrain “Assad must go”?)

Location: Russia. Mediator: Vladimir Putin, in person. It’s not far-fetched to imagine this meeting paving the way for those Kurdish armed gangs, essentially played by Washington as useful idiots, to end up being decimated by Ankara.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/operation-claw-sword-erdogans-big-new-game-in-syria/

We entered a new stage. Why Assad came to Moscow, by Renat Abdullin, Mikhail Katkov for RIANOVOSTI. 03.15.2023.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in Russia on an official visit. On Wednesday, he held talks with Vladimir Putin. What the heads of state talked about - in the material of RIA Novosti.

Fight against terrorism

As Putin noted, Moscow and Damascus are in constant contact.

“Thanks to our joint efforts and the decisive contribution of the Russian Armed Forces, significant results have been achieved in Syria in the fight against international terrorism. This makes it possible to stabilize the socio-economic and domestic political situation,” the president emphasized.

Assad, in turn, thanked Russia on behalf of the entire Syrian people "for its steadfast position in the international arena." "This is a position that comes from the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic and the unity of its lands, the repulsion of terror, as well as the repulsion of all foreign ground military forces that are there," he said.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Syrian counterpart Ali Mahmoud Abbas. The Russian minister recalled that both countries have come a long way in recent years in freeing Syria from international terrorism. “Of course, there is still a lot of work ahead, but a lot has been done,” he said.

About SVO

The Syrian President confirmed support for the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. After it began, Assad did not visit Moscow: the previous visit took place in 2021.

“I want to seize the moment now <…> and repeat the Syrian position in support of the special operation against the old and new Nazis. I say that these are old and new Nazis, because the West hosted the old Nazis on its soil, and now it supports them again” - said the leader of Syria.

About help and interaction

Putin also touched upon the recent natural disaster in the SAR. “We, as real friends, are trying to support you,” the president assured. “As you know, our units under the Ministry of Emergency Situations worked here, and representatives of the Armed Forces stationed in Syria are also contributing to the fight against the consequences of earthquakes."

Cooperation, in spite of everything, is developing, including in the economy, Putin continued. Thus, last year the mutual trade increased by seven percent. And in 2024, Russia and the SAR will celebrate the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

The Syrian president also noted the strength of ties and expressed satisfaction with the results of the work of the Russian-Syrian intergovernmental commission. "This visit will open up a new aspect in relations between Syria and Russia and will bring results from which it will be possible to proceed in our interaction," Assad stressed.

Main ally

Semyon Bagdasarov, director of the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia, believes that Moscow should support Damascus if it wants to maintain the status of a great power. "There are problems with food and fuel and lubricants in Syria, a significant part of the country is occupied. Many questions arise about what will happen if Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not win the presidential election," the expert outlined approximate topics of negotiations.

Boris Dolgov, a leading researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that Damascus is Russia's main ally in the Middle East, so this meeting is very important for Moscow. Under the current conditions, negotiations can affect a lot.

"The decisions made will certainly affect the further development of the region. China has already prepared the basis for this when it reconciled Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moscow, Damascus, Tehran and Beijing can reformat the entire system of relations in the Middle East," the expert believes.

If earlier the US tried to create an "Arab NATO", now the situation has changed radically. China has strengthened the security of Iran, and Russia will help Syria with this. In particular, it is necessary to ensure that Israel stops the attacks.

https://ria.ru/20230315/politika-1858117412.html

Media: US bases in Syria subjected to rocket fire, 03.24.2023.

Al-Mayadeen: US bases in fields in eastern Syria came under rocket fire.

CAIRO, March 25 - RIA Novosti. US bases in the Omar and Koniko fields in the province of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria came under rocket attack on Friday evening, according to the Lebanese television channel Al-Mayadeen.

"Two US coalition bases in the Koniko and Omar fields east of the Euphrates came under rocket attack," the statement said.

According to the sources of the TV channel, eight rockets were fired at Koniko, they fell on the base and near it.

Earlier , the Pentagon said that the United States launched airstrikes in Syria against formations associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in response to an Iranian drone raid on a coalition base. According to the Iranian Press TV channel, citing sources in Syria, not a single Iranian citizen died as a result of the strikes, they did not hit Iranian military positions, but, most likely, the grain center and the rural development center in Deir ez- Zor. According to media reports, seven people became victims of strikes in Deir ez-Zor.

US President Joe Biden, commenting on the shelling of the US military in Syria, said that Washington is not looking for a conflict with Iran, but is ready to resolutely defend its citizens and respond to attacks by groups associated with it.

The US military illegally controls territories in northern and northeastern Syria in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hasek and Raqqa , where Syria's largest oil and gas fields are located. Official Damascus has repeatedly called the presence of the US military on its territory occupation and state piracy with the aim of outright theft of oil.

https://ria.ru/20230325/ssha-1860534261.html

Also:

US Reportedly Investigating Why Air Defense Was Not Fully Operational During Strike in Syria, 03.24.2023.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The United States is reportedly investigating the reason why its air defense system was not fully operational during a strike on a US base in Syria.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said earlier in the day that the US military had carried out airstrikes on facilities belonging to groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) after an Iranian drone attacked a coalition base in northeast Syria, killing one US contractor.

The US military does not know at present why the system did not work as it should and the circumstances are under investigation, the report said, citing two officials.

One of the officials explained that the Avenger missile defense system on the base, named RLZ, may have been experiencing some unexpected maintenance issue, despite the fact that the troops were on high alert given that Iranian-backed groups had conducted 78 attacks in the past two years, US media reported.

Two service members injured during the attack were treated on site, while three others were evacuated to the medical facility in Iraq along with a wounded contractor, a release issued late Thursday by the Pentagon detailed.

The Defense Department did not reveal the identity of the killed person, pending notification of family, one official said, according to the report.

US officials said on Friday that Iran-backed militias fired about a dozen of rockets while attacking a second US base in the area, but that strike did not result in casualties.

The US military controls parts of the provinces of Al-Hasakah, Raqqa, Aleppo and Deir Ez-Zor, where the largest Syrian oil and gas fields are located. The Syrian government has repeatedly called the US military presence in the provinces an occupation aimed at stealing Syria’s oil.

https://sputniknews.com/20230324/us-reportedly-investigating-why-air-defense-was-not-fully-operational-during-strike-in-syria-1108767218.html