Libyan Crisis #2

Looks like the LNA is consolidating its position within its area.


@Suriyak
@Suriyakmaps
·
29 Oct
#Libya:
#LNA began last Sunday the new combing operation in Fezzan region, between [25/10/2020-28/10/2020] troops managed to secure wide areas in Gate 65-Sukna-Brak triangle & along Sabha-Ubari-Sharara Oil Field road.
Map: [ https://google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1k_5mC2oHM9Lj4I5irFA0pkXbqKQ&ll=27.46152048900138%2C13.496643276803269&z=8
]

NATO, the strongest alliance with no faults, fissures, or infighting, just brotherhood.

#Bundeswehr army (#Germany ) inspected #Turkish vessel on suspicion of transporting weapons to #Libya

https://twitter.com/I30mki/status/1331500647443795968

Oh the LNA are some cheeky bastards lol!

Turkey has restarted their military cargo flights to Libya; alongside a bunch of cargo ships.

I wonder how many people will a new offensive in Libya by the GNA surprise this time.

nero wrote:Turkey has restarted their military cargo flights to Libya; alongside a bunch of cargo ships.

I wonder how many people will a new offensive in Libya by the GNA surprise this time.

I think they'll be bringing new toys in the fray, probably 12 F-16 and testing Akinci and newer TB-2 with Satcom.
The F-16 will be needed and they have now an emergency base at Brak airport not far from Jufra.

Isn't it against the peace deal ?

Su-24 can then just destroy the runways, periodically, everytime they see a Turkish cargo in the air.

Isos wrote:Isn't it against the peace deal ?

Yes it is!  They're not happy that Egypt is leading the way for this peace and we just hosted both parties GNA & LNA in Cairo to work out differences and have made great progress.  In the meantime, the Turks have been sending communication to Egypt through back channels about improving relations with Egypt and the Egyptian brass has had some conditions regarding that which basically means Turkey has to subvert its support of the Muslim Brotherhood 100% and the Turks weren't happy with that.  So they pulled out and now are playing these  dirty games again.  They need a good, old-school, olf-fashioned spanking in the form of a vicious beat down to be put in their place.  Practically the entire region despises them as they've made enemies of everyone thanks to the clown putshist tinpot dictator erDOGan.

Isos wrote:Isn't it against the peace deal ?

It is. Though no one will care until the GNA attacks and will act surprised as usual.

Isos wrote:Su-24 can then just destroy the runways, periodically, everytime they see a Turkish cargo in the air.

I am not sure if you are being serious or not, but that is impossible in the current atmosphere.

Russian MoD/government would never allow the LNA or w/e mercenaries/group are flying these planes to do this, because it would be against the ceasefire deal that they have implemented.

And what exactly prevents Turkey from doing the same to airports officially used by the Russians for re-supply missions? They have a lot more in the area; including AEW&C aircraft. The LNA has a few Su-24's and a few Mig-29's - both combined you might have a total of 10-12 airframes.

This might disappoint some, but it is very likely that whatever the Turks have envisioned for the next offensive will actually materialize on the ground, if only because they are actually supplying the GNA and will directly take part in the fighting using their own drones/aircraft.

A few hundred Russian mercenaries and some UAE supplied Pantsir-S1 systems will change nothing in the end. The Pantsir's can easily be destroyed via a concentrated attack by F-16's using even medium-range munitions.

If you do not see a Russian base materializing in Libya in the next few weeks you do not even need to speculate on the outcome of Sirte or Jufra AFB.

It's not about LNA or mercenaries now , Egypt will intervene if Turkey tried to attack Sirte .

Turkey has no capacity to fight Egypt there ,also GNA will refuse and their ministers already are visiting Egypt this time .

Russian MoD/government would never allow the LNA or w/e mercenaries/group are flying these planes to do this, because it would be against the ceasefire deal that they have implemented.

Well they don't send weapons to keep the deal alive...

Gomig-21 wrote:

Isos wrote:Isn't it against the peace deal ?

Yes it is!  They're not happy that Egypt is leading the way for this peace and we just hosted both parties GNA & LNA in Cairo to work out differences and have made great progress.  In the meantime, the Turks have been sending communication to Egypt through back channels about improving relations with Egypt and the Egyptian brass has had some conditions regarding that which basically means Turkey has to subvert its support of the Muslim Brotherhood 100% and the Turks weren't happy with that.  So they pulled out and now are playing these  dirty games again.  They need a good, old-school, olf-fashioned spanking in the form of a vicious beat down to be put in their place.  Practically the entire region despises them as they've made enemies of everyone thanks to the clown putshist tinpot dictator erDOGan.

The spanking is sinking one of the Gabaya class ships they have in the Sidra Gulf. The ships are sitting ducks and no one wants to deal with them.

Egypt will run out of patience and make short work of the Turks. But they should do this the right way. Take out Turkey’s A400M’s which would force them to order more and get bounced.
Clear out the hub at Mitiga and finally establish a no fly zone over the Gulf of Sidra. This would force the Turks to fly their tankers which Egypt should take out. From there on it is game over.

Turkish T-155 howitzer in Libya.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1332696397989244928

And more :

Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی (B)
·
13h
#BREAKING: According to a former F-16 pilot of #THK, #Turkish Air Force might have deployed attack & utility helicopters of #Turkish Army to Al-Watiya in #Libya. Deployment of six F-16 fighter jets to #Libya is also expected to take place soon.
(Archive image by Turkish MoD

Isos wrote:Turkish T-155 howitzer in Libya.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/1332696397989244928

And more :

Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی (B)
·
13h
#BREAKING: According to a former F-16 pilot of #THK, #Turkish Air Force might have deployed attack & utility helicopters of #Turkish Army to Al-Watiya in #Libya. Deployment of six F-16 fighter jets to #Libya is also expected to take place soon.
(Archive image by Turkish MoD

We know this already since september as GNA posted M60 and Firtina in a training hangar.

@Ambrey_Intel

Video footage corroborated with satellite imagery suggests that the LNA Sousse Marine Company, Ras al Hilal, seized the #Turkey owned general cargo ship MABROOKA on 5 Dec.

Looks like the Turks have set up some new QRA areas at Al-Watia, plus

MiddleEastWatch
@MiddleEastWatc1
·
16h
Breaking:-
Italian and French Media:
Turkish F-16 fighter jets flew over Al-Jufra air base and Sirte City in Libya.

This probably means that F-16 jets are already in Al-Watia air base.

Probably some drones fly around Sirte because of the seized Turkey cargo ship by LNA .

If there any F-16 in Alwatya ,it would be spotted easily by satellites .

So it turned out su-24M did the attack on Hawk SAM. Not french or egypt rafale/mig-29m.

I wonder what weapon they used. Russia could have send some kh-31 for live tests.


Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی
@BabakTaghvaee
Remember the airstrike at #Turkish HAWK-XXI SAM battery in Al-Watiya, #Libya on 5 July 2020? It was carried-out by the Su-24M Strike Bombers of #Libya National Air Force flown from Al-Jufra. Here they can be seen in Al-Khadim Air Base in this satellite image taken on 13 June 2020

Isos wrote:So it turned out su-24M did the attack on Hawk SAM. Not french or egypt rafale/mig-29m.

I wonder what weapon they used. Russia could have send some kh-31 for live tests.


Babak Taghvaee - Μπάπακ Τακβαίε - بابک تقوایی
@BabakTaghvaee
Remember the airstrike at #Turkish HAWK-XXI SAM battery in Al-Watiya, #Libya on 5 July 2020? It was carried-out by the Su-24M Strike Bombers of #Libya National Air Force flown from Al-Jufra. Here they can be seen in Al-Khadim Air Base in this satellite image taken on 13 June 2020

How reliable is that source, bro? And who are they with, Wagner or officially RuAF?

Babak is a journalist about air forces.

He is against iranian mollahs but also against turkish dictatorship. Some beleive he is an israeli. Never saw a picture of him.

But he has a good knowledge about airforces and is quite reliable.

Sometime he makes mistakes however.

GarryB wrote:

Sometime he makes mistakes however.

Does he admit to mistakes and change position based on his mistakes?

If yes, then he is as reliable as anyone else...

For anti radiation missions the Kh-31 or Kh-25 or Kh-58 could have been used.

When launched at 50m altitude the Kh-25MP has a range of about 25km, which outranges the I HAWKs low altitude performance out to 20km, plus is below its minimum engagement altitude of 60m, but the Kh-31 could engage HAWK models from up to 115km range which is beyond their missile reach at any altitude, while the Kh-59 could also engage HAWK batteries well outside the engagement range of any model HAWK SAM.

We must not forget, those were turkish SAMs operated by Turks. They were Hawk-XXI, which use modern AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar, the same as NASAMS and it is NATO standard, not export version for non-NATO states. Turkey also have there their most modern Koral EW complex, which was destroyed in attack.

LNA Su-24M could use Kh-31P or Kh-58 anti-radar missiles to destroy Sentinel radars and Koral EW complex, the rest they could do with laser guided bombs.

Sentinel radar is very important NATO air defense radar as it is used with NASAMS and Hawk-XXI medium range SAMs as well as with Avangers and Stinger teams in US Army. Sentinel radar and Koral EW complex failing to detect attack was a big slap for NATO air defense. It was done by few classical jets and not by a swarm of small drones, ballistic missiles, etc. Fail of Saudi air defense in Abqaiq, where they didn't detect cruise missiles and drones brings quite unpleasant picture to NATO air defense capabilities. Syrians on the other hand always detect Israeli attacks, from Lebanon or Jordan and shot down some bombs or missiles, although Israel use stealth F-35 and most modern weapons and suicide drones.

AFAIK SU-24M has less capability in night missions ? or it could be modernized with SVP-24 .