Yemeni Conflict: News #3

The US "if they don't work, pull them out so fewer can see that they don't' strategy. Can't allow the third world country to show how limited their gear is.

Joe Truzman
@Jtruzmah
·
1h
In moves that haven’t been previously reported, the U.S. has removed at least three Patriot batteries from the Gulf region, including one from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, that had been put in place in recent yrs to help protect U.S. forces.

Also at

https://sputniknews.com/us/202104011082511455-biden-orders-pentagon-to-remove-patriots-forces-out-of-persian-gulf-region-reports-suggest/

Them there Houti are at it again. Cause and effect,

spriters
@neccamc1
·
6h
ArmedForcesSpokesman: Air Force carried out offensive operation in Riyadh at dawn today
The operation was carried out by 4 drones, targeting sensitive and important sites accurately

An impressive Saudi AF gift to Yemen, date unknown

It's from 2015 .

I would think the Blackadder scene at the end of the first series where he is shouting run away run away... run to the hills.... and then Baldric tells him they are coming from the hills....

Interesting discussion here on US withdrawal

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/inside-story/2021/4/2/why-is-the-us-removing-miltary-assets-from-the-gulf

The Iranians can also reciprocate and withdraw military support for Houthi. And allow for a Federal arrangement for Yemen. The same solution for Syria. Even if these ethnic regions separate into independent  states, Iran is largely immune. The main problem will be for Saudi with Shia separatism and Turkey with Kurd separatism. Iran has relatively small Kurd population and with intelligent investment in these regions and creation of ethnic buffer zones, can overcome these problems. The Shia will then be independent also, and will most probably form a Federated union with Iran. These regions are strategic and oil rich.......

If US withdrawal is tactical, as seems likely, to disarm Iran, then Iran to maintain nuclear and Rocket stance and make ready for yank build up again.

I rather suspect the US withdrawal is them realising it is a dead end Afghanistan/Vietnam type war against an enemy that is not going to give up or compromise... the change in leadership to creepy joe is probably seen as an opportunity to openly stop supporting that conflict and get out of any responsibilities there might be behind the scene.

The US has a long history of dropping allies in it... this is just more of the same.

It is rather odd that they are withdrawing air defence systems... Patriot batteries and THAAD batteries... both very expensive, and considering the location and the threats probably the last things they would be removing if this made any military sense... you don't withdraw protection and then what that protection is protecting... you withdraw what is being protected first.

Because of this I think this is more political and symbolic... the more so considering the faults in the systems and how vulnerable they both would be to low flying cruise missile attack, the chance of them escalating things and the enemy making them look really bad is enormous.

With a normal air defence battery you attack from multiple different directions at once in the hope that the missile directing radars can't cover all the incoming threats and are overwhelmed and the missiles that get through take out the guidance radars and search radars and then the battery can be cleaned up easily.

With the Patriot the missiles are on racks that are angled and can only engage targets to 120 degrees, so assuming a normal loadout of four racks you would use the first three to give 360 degree missile coverage and then the extra rack would be directed in the direction you expect most threats to come from.

That means the most likely line of attack you can deal with the most targets, but if they spot that... either via binoculars or satellite photo, they can plot flight paths for cruise missiles to attack from the weakest side and instead of dozens all coming from different angles you use dozens coming from one with the least number of SAMs pointed that way.

The amusing thing is that if you get your missiles to fly low enough it might not even see them till they get within the minimum engagement range... that is why S-300 and S-400 batteries have vertical launch missiles that can engage targets in any direction, but also have TOR or Pantsir and other systems defending them.

Another factor found in Desert Storm was the clock system on the Patriot was not very good.

To those that don't know time is critical... lots of different things have to coordinate and work together which means watches must be synchronised or for instance the missile might be launched too late and the tracking signal used to guide the missile is turned off before the missile hits the target, or the missile and tracking components are directed at the wrong piece of sky because they are looking at where the target was a minute ago and not where it is now.

Withdrawing forces is good I suppose but anyone thinking he might do the right thing for the Yemeni people is dreaming... he just wants to avoid his political enemies saying he is contributing to the famine and war in Yemen. He could care less whether he is or isn't actually doing that... he just does not want the accusations.

What we hear nothing about is what the USN is doing in terms of the sea blockade. Plus of course what US/UK SF are up to or SuAF intelligence support.

Indeed, they could drop the naval and economic blockade and then go for talks with the threat of the return of those blockades if they actually wanted some form of peace and stability.

I rather suspect they are going over the whole situation and trying to look at all the possible outcomes trying to work out which would suit them best... it really comes down to the agenda their trusted advisers have really... a lot of the worst things Trump did was because he surrounded himself with F'n idiots like Abrams and Bolten and Fatboy Bigmouth... don't even remember his name.

Agree that it is necessary that the Americans lift blockade on Yemen and Syria and Iran and a lot more besides, for peace to be achievable. But it is not sufficient. The only sufficient condition for peace in the region, is that sectarian and ethnic conflict is replaced by dialogue and compromise solutions. The formation of unity governments or federations. Allowing for various degrees of autonomy. Or even independence ( where conditions dictate) for some. Removing the need forever, for foreign interventions. Only people in the region who live there, can do this. Can and should come to this understanding.

Will never happen though.... the powers that be in the ME and outside the ME simply wont hand things over to the people... and even if they did within a few years the wrong people will float to the top... you can be rapidly promoted because you have real talent, but you can also murder and kill and brutalise your way to the top.

Don't think the latter only happens in non first world countries...

Pretending that democracy somehow creates balance and peace is ridiculous, not that there are any real democracies to test the idea.

When you have something they want and you can't be bought your entire country is destroyed and they fund a few factions and roll the dice to see what happens.

Such countries could never be trusted to not interfere to get things shaped a way that suits their needs first and foremost.

Saddam wasn't cornered and trapped and isolated and then murdered for nothing. He wanted to unite the Arab states together... the US and the west couldn't give a shit about Kuwaite, but if they let him have that the next meal on the table was Saudi Arabia and there was no way he would be allowed to take that piece of the cake.

They know that this military adventurism will not succeed in any significant military gain. Saudi has been at it for six years. Now the Usraelis want to add Iraq and Iran to the list ? Ofcourse they hope to derail the talks between Iran and USA. Biden's hand will be forced, to back Usrael. The dynamic will change.

But every cloud has a silver lining. A no deal with Iran, will further isolate the defeatist Liberals. May even force Iran to develop a Nukes ! Wonderful. No time for the Yanks to nurture and breast feed their child Liberals into adulthood. Their power diminished. Danger passes. China gains a firm foothold.......

Wonder if a few Israeli jets being shot down would change feelings about this conflict in Israel...

GarryB wrote:Wonder if a few Israeli jets being shot down would change feelings about this conflict in Israel...

It would but unlikely as the Houtis haven't been able to down anything but a drone for years. Probably why the IAF is allowed to go there, they don't like shootdown risk.

Shooting down a SaudiAF F-15 or Tornado would help as well.

So ship stationary. Therefore both torpedo and mine possible. If small damage caused therefore likely a man portable mine placed by diver.  ( underwater deployment of diver possessed by Usrael or USA?) As unlikely ship crew would miss a dingy. Solution to provide escort for ships in Red Sea and Med . Also ships at port to be protected by anti-torpedo netting and divers under water 24/7.

Usrael attacked Iran. IRANIAN ship. Not Yemen. Took responsibility. Iran should attack Usrael, and not ask Yemen. Best place PG region. And take responsibility also. Stand up like a man.

The usraelis by carrying out this attack , with possible help from Yanks , know full well that they will be a counter attack. But in their calculation, they will defend and attack better. So it is not enough that we only think about attack. Both attack and defence are important. More effective and cheaper than the other side.

For example underwater cameras near ships at harbour or entrance near netting will be effective and cheap. Better than divers under water. Overhead netting can protect against drones and missiles. All can be done cheap DIY. Put your shield up, before you strike with sword.

https://youtu.be/IzhQK5oVzto

JohninMK wrote:

GarryB wrote:Wonder if a few Israeli jets being shot down would change feelings about this conflict in Israel...

It would but unlikely as the Houtis haven't been able to down anything but a drone for years. Probably why the IAF is allowed to go there, they don't like shootdown risk.

Shooting down a SaudiAF F-15 or Tornado would help as well.

I believe the flip-flops shotdown an Apache helicopter, and there were F-15's that were lost due to "malfunction." The SaudiMights have taken pages out of the USrael handbook!

magnumcromagnon wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

GarryB wrote:Wonder if a few Israeli jets being shot down would change feelings about this conflict in Israel...

It would but unlikely as the Houtis haven't been able to down anything but a drone for years. Probably why the IAF is allowed to go there, they don't like shootdown risk.

Shooting down a SaudiAF F-15 or Tornado would help as well.

I believe the flip-flops shotdown an Apache helicopter, and there were F-15's that were lost due to "malfunction."  The SaudiMights have taken pages out of the USrael handbook!

Indeed they did, hence my qualifier "for years" when they have been overhead as targets almost daily for months.

Not sure why, you'd expect SAMs from 'somewhere' to be available if drones are.

JohninMK wrote:

GarryB wrote:Wonder if a few Israeli jets being shot down would change feelings about this conflict in Israel...

It would but unlikely as the Houtis haven't been able to down anything but a drone for years. Probably why the IAF is allowed to go there, they don't like shootdown risk.

Shooting down a SaudiAF F-15 or Tornado would help as well.

They already did. KSA Tornado shot down in February 2020.



They shot down Eurofighter as well.

Houtis drones strike again, huge fire.

spriters
@neccamc1
·
17m
Rabigh Power Station, with a production capacity of 2060 MW
North of Jeddah,
Burning from this day to the present day,
Forcing the Saudi enemy to admit in an attempt to mitigate the event.

It would but unlikely as the Houtis haven't been able to down anything but a drone for years.

I suspect that is more of a case of after losing quite a few aircraft already they have learned the engagement limits their their weapons and are flying outside that envelope to keep safe... but an added booster rocket motor to gain height and speed might change performance envelopes to make aircraft using new tactics vulnerable again...

Hell for all we know the Israelis might be helping the Houthies too... why would they not like to see a few Saudi aircraft smoking... they are sending their own aircraft because they know they have an off switch or something.

Agree that the main problem for Ansar Allah are fighter bombers with heavy bombs. Still their missile bases are hidden and protected underground. If they could protect against heavy 2000 lb bunker buster gravity fall bombs, then torpedo and mine and drone and even cruise missiles can all be defeated by simple barrier methods. So effective range of heavy loads is about 40 km. They need air defence for this range.

Also it is clear that Americans and British are listed in wiki, as only nations with underwater diver deployment submarine capability not Usraelis. It tells me that the Usraelis asked for technical help and Americans allowed the Usraelis to take credit. Maybe because the Biden administration is constrained at home about going to war. And a counterattack against Usrael will mobilise AIPAC for war and justify intervention.

Still, the Usraelis took responsibility. They started this direct war against Iran in Syria. Iran has every right to engage with Syria, under international law. As do Usraelis have right to do the same. But they do not accept Iranian military build up around their own borders. Yet expect Iran to accept Usrael build up around it's borders, in R. AZER  and PG region.

The Houthis can not do all the heavy-duty work. Including protecting Iranian ships. Iran should retaliate openly against Usrael military build up in region. By parallel response. An attack from Iranian soil against Usrael military presence around borders and PG region or a third country. Anything less shows weakness, as before, and embolden them, as shown and proven.

The Houthis can take cheap and effective defence measures to protect against many projectiles by defences. Against bunker busters they need effective AD. Iran should provide as in Syria.