Too convenient. Still need a more shock effect event to launch a tactical strike at something important. I wouldn't put it pass Trump to authorize a limited saturation strike with cruise missiles on the Air Defence installations that took part in this downing as an interim measure. Although I'm pretty sure there is big time division within the top ranks over it.
The pentagon is extremely busy right now, as it has been for all of this week overall. Never good.
On the plus side, he just launched his re-election campaign.
The thing is that no matter how big the answer will be, Iran will then respond too and things can go quickly to a full attack, especially from Iran because US has not many assests to attack directly. They would need to bring more carriers and air force planes there. Iran has all its assests near the gulf and they won't wait that US bring more forces to respond. They will destroy everything they can the first hours.
If the US does go to war with Iran you can bet the Caspian express will be in full swing. Expect thousands of Kornet missiles to flood into northern Iran via ships and strategic airliners. They can even airdrop these to northern Iran where the capital is. American families will lose their precious only children in war and I don't see how Trump can survive politically.
ultimatewarrior wrote:If the US does go to war with Iran you can bet the Caspian express will be in full swing. Expect thousands of Kornet missiles to flood into northern Iran via ships and strategic airliners. They can even airdrop these to northern Iran where the capital is. American families will lose their precious only children in war and I don't see how Trump can survive politically.
yep.. IRAN can produce kornets.. probably reversed engineered from the ones given to Russian army..and with Russia not caring at all about it... For Russia a strong IRAN is a good thing.. to counter US ..
I don't think that any sane American General are thinking in an invasion on IRAN
the way they did to IRAQ.. Because Americans troops will need 10x times bigger invasion to counter IRAN.. is a 3x times larger territory and contrary to IRAQ. in IRAN , US will be facing a very supportive citizens with their Government.... (vast majority of them) and with Russia and CHina providing weapons to IRAN in the rear flank.. So US forces will face a major defeat there ..because Russia will provide full logistics to IRAN ,of positions of americans and IRAN will have overnight mysterious " reverse engineered/copies " of Russian missiles used in Syria but made by IRAN itself. So Russia will never allow Americans capture IRAN ,is even more important territory than Syria ,because Russia will not allow NATO to have access to the caspian sea ,,something they could do if conquer IRAN..
So US knows very well ,they can't defeat/submit IRAN .. without nukes.. Since Russia ,China and other players will support IRAN..by proxy from the caspian sea..
What US military wants .seems more ,to do with tactical missile strikes ,to destroy IRAN nuclear reactor.. and is possible they could do this.. using saturations attacks of 200-300 or more cruise missiles.. But if they do that IRAN will retaliate with waves of thousands of missile on Saudi oil field.. and oil prices will reach to $150 to $200. not good for american economy.. Israel also could be a target of thousands of missiles.. So it will be ugly..
Because US is possible will try to test 1 kiloton small nukes , against IRAN.. using nation security as an excuse.
Iran shot down American long-range unmanned aerial vehicle RQ-4N BAMS-D
Today [June 20, 2019], the Iranian media released an official message in which they reported that the Iranian AIR Space Command (they include aviation, air defense, and the IRGC missile forces) shot down the American reconnaissance UAV RQ-4 Global Hawk, which had invaded Iranian airspace. A few hours later, an official confirmation appeared from the United States that an Iranian anti-aircraft missile had shot down their drone, although it was reported that it was the MQ-4C, that is, a special "naval" patrol version of the RQ-4 for the US Navy [RQ-4N BAMS-D].
It is interesting how they shot him down, in principle, the AKS KIRT in those places precisely deployed medium-range air defense systems, the 3rd Khordad and HQ-2J, we can wait for the Iranians to report any more details. The air defense of the Army in those places, in my opinion, has the Hawk and C-200 air defense systems, but the American UAVs are specifically the forces of the IRGC, and not the Army.
P.S. The Iranians claim that the UAV was shot down near this place, according to a report by the Tasnim agency with the help of the Iranian air defense system, the 3rd Khordad, and the air defense system of the AKS KIRF. It turns out the first victory of this air defense system.
In principle, this option was suggested, after being told in which area exactly he was shot down. There, more than 180 km from the position of HQ-2J in Beder-Abbas and his missiles from there will not reach, and it is too difficult to transfer to a new place, highly mobile 3rd Khordad SAMs can easily change the dislocation.
P.P.S. The Americans clarified the model of the downed apparatus. A spokesman for the US Central Command reported that it was not the serial MQ-4C that was shot down, but one of the BAMS-D reconnaissance and reconnaissance vehicles previously reconstructed from the RQ-4A.
A video of the launch of the 3rd Khordad (Sevom Khordad) air defense missile system of the Islamic Revolution Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran according to the American RQ-4 BAMS-D UAV (originally American sources talked about MQ-4C). It was at 04:05 am local time.
Iranian media reported that the video was provided by the IRGC, so this is exactly the first victory of this Iranian air defense system.
and on Youtube
In turn, the Pentagon distributed video frames on which they consider visible traces of a falling and burning RQ-4 BAMS-D after an Iranian missile hit. True video disgusting quality and smeared with data on the location ..
Well, both sides laid out the cards where, in their opinion, the UAV was shot down
The route of the UAV to the place of destruction according to Iran.
Another Iranian map, which the Iranian Foreign Minister laid out, shows the boundary of Iran’s territorial waters in blue, he also writes that they were able to find the remains of a downed UAV in Iran’s territorial waters.
]
The location of the destruction of the UAV and the intended location of the Iranian air defense missile system, according to the US version
PapaDragon wrote: So pretty much setup for certain war?
I do have to say that I am quite impressed with this dedication to starting a war.
I have no idea what's so important in Iran that requires something like this. I know about oil and bad blood over Beirut and CIA staff in Tehran but Iran is massive and just holding one province would take so much manpower that USA would have to reinstitute the draft.
I mean, I am all for it mostly because I am curious to see how the whole thing will play out (stuff like this doesn't happen every decade) but I can't say I am not dumbfounded over sheer dedication to this approach.
Trust me, curiosity will kill the cat:
Iran goes for “maximum counter-pressure"
Sooner or later the US “maximum pressure” on Iran would inevitably be met by “maximum counter-pressure”. Sparks are ominously bound to fly.
For the past few days, intelligence circles across Eurasia had been prodding Tehran to consider a quite straightforward scenario. There would be no need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if Quds Force commander, General Qasem Soleimani, the ultimate Pentagon bête noire, explained in detail, on global media, that Washington simply does not have the military capacity to keep the Strait open.
As I previously reported, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz
would destroy the American economy by detonating the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market; and that would collapse the world banking system, crushing the world’s $80 trillion GDP and causing an unprecedented depression.
Soleimani should also state bluntly that Iran may in fact shut down the Strait of Hormuz if the nation is prevented from exporting essential two million barrels of oil a day, mostly to Asia. Exports, which before illegal US sanctions and de facto blockade would normally reach 2.5 million barrels a day, now may be down to only 400,000.
Soleimani’s intervention would align with consistent signs already coming from the IRGC. The Persian Gulf is being described as an imminent “shooting gallery.” Brigadier General Hossein Salami stressed that Iran’s ballistic missiles are capable of hitting “carriers in the sea” with pinpoint precision. The whole northern border of the Persian Gulf, on Iranian territory, is lined up with anti-ship missiles – as I confirmed with IRGC-related sources.
We’ll let you know when it’s closed
Then, it happened.
Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, went straight to the point; “If the Islamic Republic of Iran were determined to prevent export of oil from the Persian Gulf, that determination would be realized in full and announced in public, in view of the power of the country and its Armed Forces.”
The facts are stark. Tehran simply won’t accept all-out economic war lying down – prevented to export the oil that protects its economic survival. The Strait of Hormuz question has been officially addressed. Now it’s time for the derivatives.
Presenting detailed derivatives analysis plus military analysis to global media would force the media pack, mostly Western, to go to Warren Buffett to see if it is true. And it is true. Soleimani, according to this scenario, should say as much and recommend that the media go talk to Warren Buffett.
The extent of a possible derivatives crisis is an uber-taboo theme for the Washington consensus institutions. According to one of my American banking sources, the most accurate figure – $1.2 quadrillion – comes from a Swiss banker, off the record. He should know; the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) – the central bank of central banks – is in Basle.
The key point is it doesn’t matter how the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.
It could be a false flag. Or it could be because the Iranian government feels it’s going to be attacked and then sinks a cargo ship or two. What matters is the final result; any blocking of the energy flow will lead the price of oil to reach $200 a barrel, $500 or even, according to some Goldman Sachs projections, $1,000.
Another US banking source explains; “The key in the analysis is what is called notional. They are so far out of the money that they are said to mean nothing. But in a crisis the notional can become real. For example, if I buy a call for a million barrels of oil at $300 a barrel, my cost will not be very great as it is thought to be inconceivable that the price will go that high. That is notional. But if the Strait is closed, that can become a stupendous figure.”
BIS will only commit, officially, to indicate the total notional amount outstanding for contracts in derivatives markers is an estimated $542.4 trillion. But this is just an estimate.
The banking source adds, “Even here it is the notional that has meaning. Huge amounts are interest rate derivatives. Most are notional but if oil goes to a thousand dollars a barrel, then this will affect interest rates if 45% of the world’s GDP is oil. This is what is called in business a contingent liability.”
Goldman Sachs has projected a feasible, possible $1,000 a barrel a few weeks after the Strait of Hormuz being shut down. This figure, times 100 million barrels of oil produced per day, leads us to 45% of the $80 trillion global GDP. It’s self-evident the world economy would collapse based on just that alone.
War dogs barking mad
As much as 30% of the world’s oil supply transits the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Wily Persian Gulf traders – who know better – are virtually unanimous; if Tehran was really responsible for the Gulf of Oman tanker incident, oil prices would be going through the roof by now. They aren’t.
Iran’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz amount to 12 nautical miles (22 km). Since 1959, Iran recognizes only non-military naval transit.
Since 1972, Oman’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz also amount to 12 nautical miles. At its narrowest, the width of the Strait is 21 nautical miles (39 km). That means, crucially, that half of the Strait of Hormuz is in Iranian territorial waters, and the other half in Oman’s. There are no “international waters”.
And that adds to Tehran now openly saying that Iran may decide to close the Strait of Hormuz publicly – and not by stealth.
Iran’s indirect, asymmetric warfare response to any US adventure will be very painful. Prof. Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran once again reconfirmed, “even a limited strike will be met by a major and disproportionate response.” And that means gloves off, big time; anything from really blowing up tankers to, in Marandi’s words, “Saudi and UAE oil facilities in flames”.
Hezbollah will launch tens of thousands of missiles against Israel. As
Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hasan Nasrallah has been stressing in his speeches, “war on Iran will not remain within that country’s borders, rather it will mean that the entire [Middle East] region will be set ablaze. All of the American forces and interests in the region will be wiped out, and with them the conspirators, first among them Israel and the Saudi ruling family.”
It’s quite enlightening to pay close attention to what this Israel intel op is saying. The dogs of war though are barking mad.
Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo jetted to CENTCOM in Tampa to discuss “regional security concerns and ongoing operations” with – skeptical – generals, a euphemism for “maxim pressure” eventually leading to war on Iran.
Iranian diplomacy, discreetly, has already informed the EU – and the Swiss – about their ability to crash the entire world economy. But still that was not enough to remove US sanctions. War zone in effect
As it stands in Trumpland, former CIA Mike “We lied, We cheated, We stole” Pompeo – America’s “top diplomat” – is virtually running the Pentagon. “Acting” secretary Shanahan performed self-immolation. Pompeo continues to actively sell the notion the “intelligence community is convinced” Iran is responsible for the Gulf of Oman tanker incident. Washington is ablaze with rumors of an ominous double bill in the near future; Pompeo as head of the Pentagon and Psycho John Bolton as Secretary of State. That would spell out War.
Yet even before sparks start to fly, Iran could declare that the Persian Gulf is in a state of war; declare that the Strait of Hormuz is a war zone; and then ban all “hostile” military and civilian traffic in its half of the Strait. Without firing a single shot, no shipping company on the planet would have oil tankers transiting the Persian Gulf.
Pepe Escobar explaining why the Swiss Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is very worried over the idea of the Straights of Hormuz being closed...it isn't hyperbole. The week following the the very bellicose anti-Iranian rhetoric from Trump, he contacted the Swiss to mediate, and be the special interlocutor between the U.S. and Iran. What's the likelihood the Swiss BIS played a role in intermediating knowing that a potential oil derivatives crisis could appear? I'm almost 100% certain this is the main reason why the Swiss are acting as strategic diplomatic interlocutors.
Vann7 wrote:yep.. IRAN can produce kornets.. probably reversed engineered from the ones given to Russian army..and with Russia not caring at all about it... For Russia a strong IRAN is a good thing.. to counter US ..
I don't think that any sane American General are thinking in an invasion on IRAN
the way they did to IRAQ.. Because Americans troops will need 10x times bigger invasion to counter IRAN.. is a 3x times larger territory and contrary to IRAQ. in IRAN , US will be facing a very supportive citizens with their Government.... (vast majority of them) and with Russia and CHina providing weapons to IRAN in the rear flank.. So US forces will face a major defeat there ..because Russia will provide full logistics to IRAN ,of positions of americans and IRAN will have overnight mysterious " reverse engineered/copies " of Russian missiles used in Syria but made by IRAN itself. So Russia will never allow Americans capture IRAN ,is even more important territory than Syria ,because Russia will not allow NATO to have access to the caspian sea ,,something they could do if conquer IRAN..
So US knows very well ,they can't defeat/submit IRAN .. without nukes.. Since Russia ,China and other players will support IRAN..by proxy from the caspian sea..
What US military wants .seems more ,to do with tactical missile strikes ,to destroy IRAN nuclear reactor.. and is possible they could do this.. using saturations attacks of 200-300 or more cruise missiles.. But if they do that IRAN will retaliate with waves of thousands of missile on Saudi oil field.. and oil prices will reach to $150 to $200. not good for american economy.. Israel also could be a target of thousands of missiles.. So it will be ugly..
Because US is possible will try to test 1 kiloton small nukes , against IRAN.. using nation security as an excuse.
Didn't Turkey also reverse engineer Kornet purchased from Russia? That's why rebels in Syria have so many Kornet missiles. Must have supplied from Turkey no?
The US controls the media, well the western media... they could just do what they did in Syria and launch 105 cruise missiles and declare victory and claim each missile destroyed an ICBM with a nuclear warhead pointing at Israel or the US and the world is now a much safer place... wow... what an amazing military tactician and leader Trump turned out to be congratulations to myself and all who voted for me... and any news agency that says anything different are traitors and will be classed as foreign agents...
yep.. IRAN can produce kornets.. probably reversed engineered from the ones given to Russian army..and with Russia not caring at all about it... For Russia a strong IRAN is a good thing.. to counter US ..
What makes you think they are not licence produced?
Because US is possible will try to test 1 kiloton small nukes , against IRAN.. using nation security as an excuse.
Recently they tried to claim Russia was violating the test ban treaty with really small nuke tests... suggests they are obviously keen to test some small nukes perhaps... a few years back they were talking about mini yield nukes for bunker busters...
I mean, I am all for it mostly because I am curious to see how the whole thing will play out (stuff like this doesn't happen every decade) but I can't say I am not dumbfounded over sheer dedication to this approach.
I would be rather more curious to see what happens if it wasn't for the fact that this sort of war is going to create a lot of death and suffering, but not for the people pushing for war... you can bet your ass Pompeos and Boltons children are not currently wearing a uniform at the moment...
any blocking of the energy flow will lead the price of oil to reach $200 a barrel, $500 or even, according to some Goldman Sachs projections, $1,000.
How do those drama queens stay in business, I mean really... over reaction much?
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/06/article/iran-shoots-down-us-spy-drone-in-persian-gulf/ On purpose or by mistake, at the very least Iran had very little to loose by shooting it down. No1 lost their lives or got captured.
The twitter of the Iranian foreign minister ,shows more details of the incident.. Basically US drone , invading briefly IRANIAN airspace at 12:00 am , it was doing zig zag.. enters and leave , enters and leave.. as a provocation will looks like... then continues moving away ...then the Iranians seems give the order to shot it down when it pass again.. doing the same provocations.. and 4 hours later.. the drone again do the same provocations , and enters Iranian waters and then leave.. is like a game.. US do to Russia that a lot of times in the baltics.. against Russia.. Dance with their drones or combat planes along the lines of the Russian waters and international waters. but Russia stop them and escort them out ,before they do it..
Because Iranian don't have the resources and economy to constantly have a plane 24 hours securing its borders.. So can't send escorts to push away foreign nations drones.. who try to enter.. so it will make sense and relations all time tense.. The Iranians don't bother with politeness and escorts..and just shoot it down at the first violation of their territorial waters..
Babak Taghvaee @BabakTaghvaee · 5h #BREAKING: 166510, the #USNavy's RQ-4A drone which was shot-down by #IRGC over #Oman Sea near #HormuzStrait was equipped with Raytheon AN/ALR-89 self-protection suite which failed to protect this $130 mil UAV from danger of Sayyad SD2C missile launched from 3rd Khordad SAM system
The Soviets shot down a lot of western aircraft during the cold war because of these sort of games.
The aircraft in question were generally manned ex bomber aircraft modified to carry electronics of all kinds, and their mission is to fly along the border and detect radars and radio communications... testing the defences.
Obviously the defence gets wise to this and stops turning on all its radar and alerting ground based SAMs and radars and systems, so the recon aircraft has to provoke the defences into activating... normally by flying directly towards the border and then turning away at the last minute... sometimes even that didn't work so they entered Soviet airspace and if they refused instructions to land immediately and surrender they were often shot down.
These days it is obviously easier to send an unmanned aircraft into enemy airspace and later say it was an error or mistake.
Those old recon bombers got an R added to the designation... so a recon version of the Canberra bomber (B-57) would be RB-57... they used all sorts of modified bombers... little wonder when a Boeing crosses their air space near major secret military facilities and gets shot down...
#BREAKING: 166510, the #USNavy's RQ-4A drone which was shot-down by #IRGC over #Oman Sea near #HormuzStrait was equipped with Raytheon AN/ALR-89 self-protection suite which failed to protect this $130 mil UAV from danger of Sayyad SD2C missile launched from 3rd Khordad SAM system
Was going to say the Russians would be very interested in seeing that, but perhaps they don't need to... or perhaps already have?
Looks like a response of some sort will take place, media outlets reporting Trump ordered strike on radars and batteries but called off at the last minute. Getting closer and closer now.
crod wrote:Looks like a response of some sort will take place, media outlets reporting Trump ordered strike on radars and batteries but called off at the last minute. Getting closer and closer now.
That's propaganda. They can't do shit. Iran will respond no matter what US do and US can't affoard an open war. Too much to lose.
Iran IRGC Aerospace chief Gen. Hajizadeh: wreckage downed U.S. RQ4 Global Hawk drone UAV
Iran releases first photos of downed US drone's wreckage https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/06/21/599048/Iran-photos-US-drone-wreckage-persian-gulf-IRGC
Babak Taghvaee @BabakTaghvaee · 5h #BREAKING: 166510, the #USNavy's RQ-4A drone which was shot-down by #IRGC over #Oman Sea near #HormuzStrait was equipped with Raytheon AN/ALR-89 self-protection suite which failed to protect this $130 mil UAV from danger of Sayyad SD2C missile launched from 3rd Khordad SAM system
This RQ-4 drone is equipped with the most modern AN/ALR-89 ESM suite, which consist of AN/AVR-3 laser warning receiver, AN/APR-49 radar warning receiver, jamming system and ALE-50 towed decoy. Also it is made as stealth and have quite low RCS and it fly in stealth mode, when take off in UAE. Somewhere I read, that its RCS is not much bigger than that of F-35, so this is actually excellent result for Iranian SAM. With capturing of RQ-170 Sentinel and shoting down RQ-4 Global Hawk, Iran prove to be able to deal with stealth planes.
Agree . This shoot down , proves a lot . Since stealth and altitude and countermeasure proved ineffective. This puts a lot of American assets beyond use . B2 , U2 , B52 , F111 and air refuelling tankers and all other UCAV aircraft that are slower . Faster aircraft like F35 , F22 and F18 , F15 now have to be tested . Iran has more advanced SAM . So by using SAM force alone , the initial attack by yank may prove ineffective . If we think about SSBM and anti - ship missiles and aircraft and subs , and hidden reinforced bunkers then attacks totally ineffective .
@ isos
There are two important factors . First effectiveness of blockade . Second the status of Iranian nuclear deterrent . The Iranians are more likely to go to war ( close Hormuz ) if they have deterent and sanctions biting badly . Yanks more likely to go to war ( cause generalized destruction ) if Iranians have no deterent and sanctions not working fast enough ( until next US elections ) . I tend to think that recent incidents are pressures by Iran , Iran then ready to go to war . So this tells you the state of play . War , it will be . Just my two cents .....
This puts a lot of American assets beyond use . B2 , U2 , B52 , F111..
The B-1B/2/52s use stand off weapons &/ get EW support from the USN EA-6Bs/F-18Gs; U-2s won't dare to come close & risk losing a pilot; it can stay out of range & still spy from high altitude; the USAF retired its F-111s years ago. F-22s can be used for airstrikes & already sent 2 IrAF F-4s home in 1 incident.
Have You Heard of the CIA's Iran Mission Center? Lindsey Graham: if Iran 'Attacks Shipping Again,' US Should Consider 'Taking Out Their Navy, Oil Refineries' Top Members of Congress Huddle With Trump on Iran India Deploys Two Ships in Gulf of Oman After Tanker Attacks Iran Protests to Swiss Envoy Over US Drone Airspace Violation The Global Hawk Drone Shot Down by Iran Iran's Zarif Tweets That Downed US Drone Took Off From UAE, Says US Lying About Drone Being Hit Over International Waters Iran Urges International Community to Demand US Stop Its 'Destabilizing' Activity Iran to Discuss Saving Nuclear Deal With European Powers, China, and Russia US Efforts to Cut Off Iran Oil Revenue Working: White House Adviser Israel's Netanyahu Urges Support for US Against Iran's 'Aggression' House Speaker Pelosi Says to De-Escalate Tensions With Iran Schumer: Trump Must Get Congressional Approval Before Any Military Action Against Iran https://www.antiwar.com/
Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:38 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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Not only is the hardware in pieces... its effectiveness in combat too.
