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    Russian Economy General News: #5

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    Austin


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    Post  Austin Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:19 pm

    Attracted by OFZ yuan will be used to finance the budget deficit of the Russian Federation

    Moscow. November 13. INTERFAX.RU - The Ministry of Finance expects to place all the declared volume of OFZ in RMB on the Moscow stock exchange, the funds raised will be used to cover the budget deficit, told reporters the head of the department of state debt and state financial assets Finance Konstantin Vyshkovsky.

    "Funds raised in RMB should be immediately converted into rubles and will be used to finance the deficit, as well as any other means of borrowing," - he said.
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    Post  Austin Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:22 pm

    Siluanov outlined options for the new budget rules

    Renewed fiscal rule should provide for the removal of oil and gas revenues to the reserves in the oil over $ 50, according to the Ministry of Finance


    Moscow. November 13. INTERFAX.RU - The new fiscal rule should provide for the removal of oil and gas revenues to the reserves at the price of oil above $ 50 a barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, speaking in the State Duma on Friday.

    "We set ourselves the challenge of achieving stability of the budget system in the medium term. We are currently working on a new budget rule, which stopped in 2016, these rules should take into account the new situation in the world markets of our main raw material. We are preparing a new rule, it provides for the removal of excess revenues at a price above $ 50 per barrel ", - he said.

    He said that now the price of Urals oil is slightly more than $ 41 per barrel.

    Earlier Siluanov said that there is a danger of transition to monetary financing costs, if they are not brought into compliance with the new possibilities of the budget.

    "If you do not take in the near future a new fiscal rule that would determine the maximum volume of expenditures based on our capabilities, and we will not be guided by, we can quickly use our reserves and go to the resource of the Central Bank, it is impossible to do, as it would lead to inflation spiral of spending, followed by indexing this inflation, "- he said.

    Without such work, he said, the Reserve Fund will be spent quickly and in 2017. In general, the finance minister said that the high volatility of the ruble, Russians observed in the current year, is due to insufficient removal of oil and gas revenues in previous years. "Obviously, the amount of savings (in the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund - IF) is significantly lower than required, the amount of savings we can eat through for 1.5-2 years. It is also clear that the lack of allocations to reserves of oil and gas revenues has resulted in too strengthening of the ruble - the less we direct funds to the Reserve Fund, the more it affected the fortress of the ruble in "fat" years, this has led to the fact that the economy became less competitive, "- said Siluanov earlier.

    As previously reported, the budget of the Russian Federation on the proposal of the Ministry of Finance had been drawn up only in 2016 due to the high volatility of the ruble and uncertainty in the financial markets. In addition to this period it will be suspended for fiscal rule. This Siluanov in April reported that the Budget Code amendments are prepared to change the rules of the budget. In particular, it was planned to change the calculation of the limit expenditure or the base price, which is assumed in the calculation of income. Later, he said that the government is considering several options for the execution of the budget rules.

    Under the current budgetary rules, the cost should not be more than 1% of GDP higher than the sum of non-oil revenues and oil and gas revenues, calculated on the average price for the previous few years. Oil revenues received in excess of the estimated price, should be directed to the reserve fund until it reaches 7% of GDP, and then - in the National Welfare Fund.
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:24 pm

    Crude prices falling again and have now fallen for 7 of the last 8 days, WTI Crude just traded at $40 for the first time since August 27th. Oil is now down over 14% in the last 8 days, the fastest rate of fall since December 2014.

    Watch for oil currencies like Russia and Norway to drop if oil keeps falling.
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    Post  Austin Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:27 pm

    Just today Finance Minister was complaining of the disadvantage of Strong Rouble makes the economy uncompetitive.

    So a weaker rouble and lower oil price should be good for Russia atleast would make their other industry more comptitive
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:29 pm

    Austin wrote:Just today Finance Minister was complaining of the disadvantage of Strong Rouble makes the economy uncompetitive.

    So a weaker rouble and lower oil price should be good for Russia atleast would make their other industry more comptitive
    Yes, the combination of a strong Rouble and low oil prices is not good for Russia.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:38 pm

    Austin wrote:Just today Finance Minister was complaining of the disadvantage of Strong Rouble makes the economy uncompetitive.

    So a weaker rouble and lower oil price should be good for Russia atleast would make their other industry more comptitive

    Why does Ruble have to be strong even if oil price grows? The central bank can still keep the Ruble value low artificially.
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    Post  medo Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:03 pm

    I would say Ruble is far undervalued. It's natural value is far higher, around Euro or Dollar. It is kept artificially undervalued. Ruble all the time climb up. But after a period of climbing something happened and Ruble is artificially lowered. When this moment is over, Ruble climb up again until next sudden happening happened to artificially lower the value of Ruble and when it is over Ruble climb back again, etc. Ruble have quite strong economy behind, large reserves, in gold included and low debt. It is difficult to keep a currency with so strong back up undervalued.
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 14, 2015 12:17 am

    medo wrote:I would say Ruble is far undervalued. It's natural value is far higher, around Euro or Dollar. It is kept artificially undervalued. Ruble all the time climb up. But after a period of climbing something happened and Ruble is artificially lowered. When this moment is over, Ruble climb up again until next sudden happening happened to artificially lower the value of Ruble and when it is over Ruble climb back again, etc. Ruble have quite strong economy behind, large reserves, in gold included and low debt. It is difficult to keep a currency with so strong back up undervalued.

    Whatever its "true" value is, the current exchange is ideal.  It suppressed imports and boosted exports.   For every dollar of imports replaced
    by domestic Russian production, the Russian GDP gains two dollars.   Russia needed this stimulus.  There were too many Yeltsin-era
    compardor "economics" leftovers which were distorting the Russian market and making Russia weaker.   This includes agriculture where
    domestic production was replaced by imports.   I wish the ruble stays low for as long as it takes to restore Russia's economic balance.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 14, 2015 1:30 am

    http://qz.com/548985/whats-wrong-with-finland/?utm_source=YPL

    http://www.stat.fi/til/vtp/2014/vtp_2014_2015-03-02_tie_001_en.html

    Russian Economy General News: #5 - Page 34 Vtp_2014_2015-03-02_tie_001_en_001

    1) People love to bleat about there being some oil glut. People are stupid sheep and in fact the
    oil price crash is clearly a demand-side effect.

    2) The GDP non-growth pattern in Finland looks extremely similar to that of Russia (as posted here a few days ago).
    But Russia actually had positive GDP growth from 2010 until 2015.

    3) Points (1) and (2) indicate a global recession or non-recovery after the 2008-2009 meltdown. There
    was some QE-induced lofting until 2013 but it has died and the oil price is the perfect indicator.
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    Post  sepheronx Sat Nov 14, 2015 1:53 am

    JohninMK wrote:Crude prices falling again and have now fallen for 7 of the last 8 days, WTI Crude just traded at $40 for the first time since August 27th. Oil is now down over 14% in the last 8 days, the fastest rate of fall since December 2014.

    Watch for oil currencies like Russia and Norway to drop if oil keeps falling.

    WTI is texas crude and Canadian heavy. Brent is what Urals heavy trades under. Weak ruble has a major advantage for Russia but weakness for Canada due to policies.
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    Post  Austin Sat Nov 14, 2015 6:33 pm

    Good Read from Alexander Mercouris

    Russia's Economy Starts to Recover
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    Post  Austin Mon Nov 16, 2015 12:14 pm

    The State Duma passed the first reading of the draft budget 2016

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/479161

    According to the draft, the budget deficit in 2016 will amount to 2.36 trillion rubles, or 3% of GDP

    Moscow. November 13. INTERFAX.RU - The State Duma at the meeting on Friday passed the first reading of the draft federal budget for 2016. For the adoption of the bill voted 239 deputies, against - 151 deputies abstained.

    The revenue budget-2016 is planned at 13.738 trillion rubles (17.5% of GDP), expenditures - 16.099 trillion rubles (20.5% of GDP).The budget deficit will amount to 2.36 trillion rubles, or 3% of GDP.


    "Next year we will begin to depend less on oil revenues. I would like to say that oil and gas revenues was 7.7%, while non-oil revenues - 9.8% of GDP. That is, we see that the income from the economy, non-market conditions prices on world markets are beginning to prevail in our revenues, "- he said during the discussion of the budget, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

    The budget is calculated on the basis of the inflation rate not exceeding 6.4% (December 2016 to December 2015). Size of GDP projected in the amount of 78 trillion 673 billion rubles.


    Normative value of the Reserve Fund is planned in the amount of 5 trillion 507 billion rubles.


    Upper limit domestic borrowing is set in the amount of 300 billion rubles, foreign borrowing - $ 3 billion.

    The upper limit on domestic debt 1 January 2017 is proposed to establish in the amount of 8 trillion 818 billion rubles and foreign debt - $ 55.1 billion, or 50.1 billion euros.

    The draft budget includes appropriations for the creation of a fund to support sectors of the economy in the amount of 150 billion rubles. In addition, the budget includes the fund in the amount of 342.2 billion rubles, created by freezing pension savings in 2016.

    The draft law on the federal budget also provides a mechanism for the return to the budget of the unused balance of budget subsidies to state corporations. In addition, the document makes provision for public contracts, accompanied by Treasury territorial bodies of the Federal Treasury.

    "Next year, we envisage to take the treasury support all the costs associated with investment spending in the amount of 100 million rubles. They will pass through the treasury system, will be monitored in terms of control over the implementation of these funds on the one hand, and on the other side of these funds will be in the budget system and will not be used as it is today it happens often in the form of advances to the accounts of commercial banks ", - said Siluanov.

    "Until April 1, we have to transfer to the Treasury all the expenses that have been made to the charter capital and funds of our companies, which are not spent to date, and before July 1 to decide whether we need this money to these companies, or we can take them the federal budget "- the minister added.

    In September, the State Duma adopted a law on the development and adoption of the federal budget is not on the three-year, but only one, in 2016. In addition, the 2016 budget will not operate normally.

    It is expected that in the second reading, the State Duma will consider the bill "On the Federal Budget for 2016" on December 2 in the third reading - 4 December.

    The decision on the adoption of the budget of the State Duma notes that the preparation of the bill for the second reading the government and the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes consider raising 140 billion rubles to 310 billion rubles, the volume of credits to the budget. In addition, the second reading is necessary to raise the issue of the redistribution of budget allocations for federal targeted investment program (FTIP), providing direction as a priority investment in facilities with a high degree of readiness for the commissioning, the resolution says.
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    Post  Austin Mon Nov 16, 2015 12:15 pm

    Siluanov said about the possibility of storing Russian reserves in yuan

    If the yuan will be included in the basket of Special Drawing Rights, that Russia will be able to keep money in the currency, does not exclude the Ministry of Finance


    Moscow. November 16th. INTERFAX.RU - If the yuan will be included in the basket of Special Drawing Rights (SDR or SDR), then Russia will be able to keep money in the currency, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

    "If in the SDR to include yuan, respectively, the Russian Federation can also store their reserves in yuanevyh assets," - said Siluanov reporters.

    The head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde said earlier that the IMF experts supported the proposal for the inclusion of the yuan in the basket SDR. The final decision on this matter will be adopted at a meeting of the Board of Directors of the IMF, which is scheduled for November 30.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Nov 16, 2015 5:16 pm

    http://rusnews.net63.net/2015/11/15/for-russia-there-is-no-slowdown-in-the-gold-rush/

    Original article: 
    http://www.warandpeace.ru/ru/news/view/106639/

    Essentially, Russia in the third quarter purchased 77.2 tons of gold out of a total of 175 tons purchased world wide in Q3, making Russia the largest buyer in Q3.
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    Post  max steel Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:01 pm

    everyone who has been arguing that Russia is starved for Western finance and that the Chinese will never make up the shortfall - from Sberbak:
    To recap, the actual size of Rosneft's debt under the prepayment facilities incurred prior to July 2014 is around $28 bln (not the $16 bln shown in the company's 2Q15 IFRS accounts). From that, outstanding prepayment loans from the CNPC total around $14 bln. In order not to show losses under the open FX position, Rosneft opted to account for all prepayments at the historical USD/RUB rate of around 32.0.

    If Rosneft indeed received long-dated funding of this size (CNPC is the most likely counterparty), this would signify the first large-ticket, wholesale refinancing transaction of a Russian sanctioned entity with an external counterparty since June 2014. The proceeds would probably be used to redeem some of the company's maturing debts. Excluding debt under outstanding pre-payments, the company has circa $6 bln in foreign debt redemptions in 2016 and $8 bln in 2017, including the remaining debt for the TNK-BP acquisition. The company also owes circa $14 bln in loans to local private commercial banks linked to FX repo with the CBR, which mature in December 2015 and February-March 2016. It is not clear to us what the priority of repayment of this debt is.
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    Post  kvs Wed Nov 18, 2015 12:28 am

    Where is that quote from?

    Anyway, oil and gas companies always carry a large debt and it has nothing to do with them not being viable. It is the nature of their
    business as they need to explore and develop fields a priori to selling oil and gas.
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    Post  par far Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:11 pm

    I just want this confirmed, this came out a while back, is this true? Did Russia get back it's oil stocks back?

    http://inserbia.info/today/2014/12/grandmaster-putin-russia-earns-20-bln-recovers-stocks-of-its-companies/


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    Post  flamming_python Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:51 pm

    Grandmaster Putin

    Remember, that if Russia shows some positive result due to an intercourse of complex factors - then it must be because Grandmaster Putin planned it 15, no 16 steps in advance.
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    Post  Austin Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:56 pm

    par far wrote:I just want this confirmed, this came out a while back, is this true? Did Russia get back it's oil stocks back?

    http://inserbia.info/today/2014/12/grandmaster-putin-russia-earns-20-bln-recovers-stocks-of-its-companies/



    I read that before but was there a buy back of stock in reality ?
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:42 pm


    "Goldman Recommends Investors to Buy Rubles in 2016"

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20151120/1030471813/goldman-ruble-rise.html#ixzz3s3hEwXS1
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    Post  kvs Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:13 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    "Goldman Recommends Investors to Buy Rubles in 2016"

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20151120/1030471813/goldman-ruble-rise.html#ixzz3s3hEwXS1

    Wooden ruble. Laughing
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    Post  Kimppis Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:14 am

    flamming_python wrote:Grandmaster Putin

    Remember, that if Russia shows some positive result due to an intercourse of complex factors - then it must be because Grandmaster Putin planned it 15, no 16 steps in advance.

    And everything that happens in the world is Obama's fault. Smile Because he is such a wimp, foreign leaders think they can make independent decisions. Otherwise they wouldn't even dare. Worst of all, Obama is a communist, muslim and he was born outside 'Murica (his birth certificate is fake). Obama has destroyed the US military (almost 600 billion is not enough) and he's not hawkish enough. It goes without saying that the US military interventions and coercion is solution to all problems.

    The west is led by nazis, homogays, zionists and their NWO agenda.

    Evil dictator Putin's Russia is a totalitarian gas station. He destroyed freedum and now he's ready to recreate the Soviet Union.

    We must kill all muslims. Nuke ISIS.

    Internet comments in a nutshell.
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    Post  AlfaT8 Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:41 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Grandmaster Putin

    Remember, that if Russia shows some positive result due to an intercourse of complex factors - then it must be because Grandmaster Putin planned it 15, no 16 steps in advance.

    And everything that happens in the world is Obama's fault. Smile Because he is such a wimp, foreign leaders think they can make independent decisions. Otherwise they wouldn't even dare. Worst of all, Obama is a communist, muslim and he was born outside 'Murica (his birth certificate is fake). Obama has destroyed the US military (almost 600 billion is not enough) and he's not hawkish enough. It goes without saying that the US military interventions and coercion is solution to all problems.

    The west is led by nazis, homogays, zionists and their NWO agenda.

    Evil dictator Putin's Russia is a totalitarian gas station. He destroyed freedum and now he's ready to recreate the Soviet Union.

    We must kill all muslims. Nuke ISIS.

    Internet comments in a nutshell.

    Really, i thought they were widely accepted right-wing neo-con facts (with the exception of that western nazi, zionist part).
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    Post  Austin Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:20 pm

    JANES [Extract] Intel Briefing –Sanctions against Russia One year on

    http://www.janes.com/article/55874/extract-intel-briefing-sanctions-against-russia-one-year-on
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    Post  GarryB Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:21 am

    The extract does not appear for me.

    The Amusing thing is that for alleged but unproven rebel assistance in the Ukraine Russia has had sanctions imposed, yet for the same 'crime' with plenty of evidence showing real active support for a rebel force that does more than sit back and get shelled by its unelected government like the east ukrainians, there is no international condemnation or sanctions against Turkey... the same double standard as regards Albanian Kosovo and South Ossetias rights to independence...

    Perhaps Russia should impose its own sanctions on economic projects with turkey?

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