Russian Economy General News: #2

I had all predicted I may humbly say   

105 Russian defense enterprises going over to industry sector  - hope they will now contribute more to Russian GDP

Russia to spend $600 billion on state armaments program by 2020

Viktor wrote:Lots of news from Russia - China cooperation

500 000 apartments for the poor by the end of 2017 - program of RF

Medvedev: Russia and China will cooperate in the field of housing construction


3.5 - 5 bin $ for small hydroplants in Russia

Media: "RusHydro" and PowerChina invest in small hydro power plants in Russia, $ 3.5-5 billion


and in general

Helicopters, cars and titanium. Joint projects Rosteh and China

China is now innovating in cheap housing utilizing 3-D printing technology building with concrete and waste material from demolished buildings:




...So to meet the mark by 2017 they could have '70' large 3-D printers building 10 houses in 24 hour period, '1' 3-D printer could potentially build 3650 houses in a year, so '70' 3-D printer's can make 500,000 houses in 2.5 years!

Russia China two way trade is a relatively small compared to two way trade between Europe and Russia.

When Russia-China trade reaches $500 billion then it would be a force to recoken with and a source of stability for Russian Economy away from sanction prone Europe.

Austin wrote:Russia China two way trade is a relatively small compared to two way trade between Europe and Russia.

When Russia-China trade reaches $500 billion then it would be a force to recoken with and a source of stability for Russian Economy away from sanction prone Europe.

I think you need sleep. China is now the bigger % of trade for Russia than EU. All eU buys from Russia is oil and gas while China is still interested in end goods.

$500B? Lol. Besides US bonds, china doesnt spend nearly that on US.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/Russia_trade_percentage_2013.png

What was that again?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

Please dont use wiki

Uh your link itself shows how much larger the EU is of a trading partner.

Russian-Chinese bilateral trade is being boosted (they are hoping for anyways) 100 billion by 2015. Russian-EU bilateral trade is already over 250 billion.

What is there even to debate? Don't be so rude to Austin next time .

EDIT:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113440.pdf

Actually, bilateral trade was over 300 billion in 2013. China-Russian bilateral trade isn't even close. THAT is reality.

Cant say EU as many EU coubtries are not on the same boat (which is leading me to believe that EU's existance is in question). Exports of oil and gas are high to EU (higher than china atm) but umports can be subsituted from China, India and domestic. People do not need a bmw or mercedes. Siemens does not need to be in a jv. Good to have investments I agree. But if you break it up between countries, China trounces the rest in trade. Since Italy, Austria and Hungary are willing to go against EU wishes about south stream, then it is fair to compare by each country and not whole union. For instance, Russia has high import of food products from Poland but not high exports to Poland. Compare that with Germany and others.

But if one wishes to compare a country vs a unuion, then fine, Austin is semi correct but it is exaggeration. And yes, I shouldnt be so rude, so I appologize.

Please excuse bad spelling as I am not good at typing on mobile phone.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/fastest-growing-russian-export-products/2358

Random but entertaining.

TR1 wrote:http://www.worldstopexports.com/fastest-growing-russian-export-products/2358

Random but entertaining.

Soo... Russia next in fashion industry? Maybe will yake over Italy in terms of fashion clothing. Lol.

China can be good counter to EU and US in Trade but its not there yet.

What Russia can do on its part is to accept some percentage of Yuan as Reserve Currency or Bonds and accept Oil/Gas payment in Yuan b , Rouble besides USD and Euro.

This is getting boring. You are doing the wrong comparison!!
If Russia and an EU country stop trading to each other a commodity (which commodity is 80% oil or gas) then BOTH SIDES need to find an alternative.
Russia to sell (since she has surplus) EU country to buy (since she has deficit).
Russia can rely to China who is getting some 10-20% increase in bilateral trade  volume per year, EU country can't rely virtually anywhere.
Compare primary with primary like we say not primary with secondary, this is getting malice!

In other words if Russia is to suffer a 1% decrease in GDP this translate to a >>1% for the same economy in EU which given the deficits the total debt and the euro turbulence and all
might be the difference between  staying alive for one more year or go down the cliff.

I don't want to become a Austin n°2 but please give your opinions about this (joking..I respect you much Austin  )
http://rt.com/business/170188-russia-technical-recession-hsbc/
Is it all related to the "austerity" imposed by the Central Bank of Russia? Or there are other issues?
Thank you in advance.

zino wrote:I don't want to become a Austin n°2 but please give your opinions about this (joking..I respect you much Austin  )
http://rt.com/business/170188-russia-technical-recession-hsbc/
Is it all related to the "austerity" imposed by the Central Bank of Russia? Or there are other issues?
Thank you in advance.

We read for decades in western medias, how everything is bad in Russia and that it will break and die tomorrow. just another propaganda article...

Hannibal Barca wrote:This is getting boring. You are doing the wrong comparison!!
If Russia and an EU country stop trading to each other a commodity (which commodity is 80% oil or gas) then BOTH SIDES need to find an alternative.
Russia to sell (since she has surplus) EU country to buy (since she has deficit).
Russia can rely to China who is getting some 10-20% increase in bilateral trade  volume per year, EU country can't rely virtually anywhere.
Compare primary with primary like we say not primary with secondary, this is getting malice!

In other words if Russia is to suffer a 1% decrease in GDP this translate to a >>1% for the same economy in EU which given the deficits the total debt and the euro turbulence and all
might be the difference between  staying alive for one more year or go down the cliff.

EIA recently stated that if Russia were to be sanctioned they would increase the Oil production , So they would compensate for a drop in Oil imports from Russia.

The critical issue for Europe will be not the availability of resource by cost , they will have to pay 40 % more for alternate source of Gas

Austin wrote:EIA recently stated that if Russia were to be sanctioned they would increase the Oil production , So they would compensate for a drop in Oil imports from Russia.

EIA?! As in "Energy Information Administration"?!
How will they compensate if one of the three top exporters doesn't export anymore?! How?!
Oh, by saying things in the press? Well, than - yes, they'll compensate...propaganda wars are like men beating women...makes one vomit.

Austin wrote:The critical issue for Europe will be not the availability of resource by cost , they will have to pay 40 % more for alternate source of Gas

Yes, well cost is a major factor...RIGHT AFTER they figure out just WHERE they're gonna buy gas in those volumes, and HOW FAST it'll get to them.
Unless they don't care having their populations decimated in the next ten winters, I guess...

zino wrote:I don't want to become a Austin n°2 but please give your opinions about this (joking..I respect you much Austin  )
http://rt.com/business/170188-russia-technical-recession-hsbc/
Is it all related to the "austerity" imposed by the Central Bank of Russia? Or there are other issues?
Thank you in advance.

It is the same game they play everytime. What they do, is cry wolf, until investors and alike will be turned off from the market, and then whatever little prophecy they come up with, comes true. Problem is, there is little to prove that such situation exists when industrial production is up this year (so far) and investments are massive (did you know trade with USA is up this year, regardless of sanctions?). Add to that, economy increased in Q1 by basically 1%.

But the future is a little more clear than it was before. This time, Russia knows they need to create a domestic industrial production for substituting imports. They need it as they know that whatever they do get from the west will run dry regardless what they do. Right now, Oligarches are shitting themselves and know that their assets will be gone in short time, to try and put pressure on Putin. In the end, either they will run away to those other countries and get what they want and all they have to do is make up stories about how horrible it is in Russia, so they can keep their assets. They can leave. So there will be some problems, but in the end, when the bad is out, then they can clean up the system. The best thing that the current central bank is doing, is getting rid of banks that are corrupt.

Once this passes, hopefully Russia will see that relying on the west to trade with is a losing battle. Don't stop trade outright, as diversifying trade is always good, regardless with whom it is. But as well, keep it up with trading with asia and the middle east. Try to build better relations with others. As well, fix the fricking media. Russia is so silent in the media and only touch basis with Russian's rather than everyone else, and hence, propaganda about Russia is spread so fast due to media control from US and western EU, that they get convincing after a while when they keep telling the same tall tale. But as well, screw the WTO and any other trade with them in the traditional sense. Up the price for gas and oil as they see fit. It is Russia's resources, no one else's.

Ah how wonderful.  Russian Central Bank increases interest rates on loans to help 'combat' inflation.  Guess what happens?  Inflation goes up to 7%.  All at the same time, Ruble dropped in value again and stock market dropped because of Russia's military exercise in the black sea.

The whole system is so screwed up and so many groups of people working against Russia, in Russia, that it isn't even funny anymore.  Capital flight is up to over $30B so far in last month.  People should be thrown in jail and Central bank dealt with, because they are helping destroying Russian economy with its piss poor monetary policies.  While at same time, redo tax laws and start giving subsidies to high tech, heavy industrial production, and agriculture to help improve development.  Central bank is making it hard with high interest rates to combat something that it really isn't working - inflation.

I will add to this.

The rouble dipping a bit isn't that bad, as it will make production cheaper in Russia, especially for countries like China. Although, it was worst earlier when Ruble hit low of 36 to USD. It is up to 34 per USD, but that is still not very good. As for the stock market dipping, it isn't that bad. 1% here, 2 % there. But still, regarding stock market, it seems that whenever someone farts or sneezes, it has an effect on the market. But the heavy hitter is the CB. Those clowns are screweing the whole system up. Because of high interest rates, they cannot give loans and instead, most low interest long term loans are from US to Russian companies. As well, they fight inflation by increasing interest rates. Well, it really does not seem to be working. What fixes the economy is consumption. Making consumption harder and making it harder for businesses to obtain the funding in order to open in the country is very counter productive. The money in the reserve pool and foreign reserve should be thrown into another banking system to help fight inflation as well as create a system of long term, low interest rate loans. Do this without CB as they will screw it up. They are about as bad as the federal reserve in the US, with a lot less money.

Interesting Thinking any thoughts on this report

It's Time To Drive Russia Bankrupt -- Again

The Russian government has approved a 2014 budget calling for revenues of $409.6 billion, spending of $419.6 billion, and a deficit of $10.0 billion, or 0.4% of expected GDP of $2.5 trillion.

Unlike the U.S., which has deep financial markets and prints the world’s reserve currency, Russia cannot run large fiscal deficits without creating hyperinflation.  Given that Russia expects to get about half of its revenue from taxes on its oil and gas industry, it is clear that it would not take much of a decline in world oil prices to create financial difficulties for Russia.

Assuming year-end 2013 prices for crude oil ($111.76/bbl) and natural gas ($66.00/FOE* bbl) the total revenue of Russia’s petroleum industry is $662.3 billion (26.5% of GDP), and Russian’s oil and gas export earnings are $362.2 billion, or 14.5% of GDP.  Obviously, a decline in world oil prices would cause the Russian economy and the Russian government significant financial pain.

Sounds lime wishful thinking. Since Russia has majority of the defense firms under gov rule and holds the worlds supply of resources, so they can control its price if they have to.

As well, it is true, they can face an issue with inflation, but that wont happen as inflation was quite a bit higher in the past vs now.

As well, they use the same explanation of oil and gas. But prices are skyrocketing thanks to Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, etc etc etc. Prices are not dropping anytime soon unfortunately.

There is little in terms of subsidies in Russian economy. If they have to, they can subsidise plenty of industries to make it better. Add to that, the idiot gov are hording money left right and center that is driving up inflation as well as allowing a deficite (but always end up in a surplus in the end). If they have trouble funding it, they can take it from reserve funds, which they have second highest in the world.

Mind you, they are correct, you should not spend more than one earns. But in this case, it shouldnt cost hyperinflation, at least it shouldnt. 0.4% of GDP deficite is very small so thank goodness for that. But what it does mean is that Russia better start getting its act in gear, use some reserve funds, and start pushing more infrastructure development. All the while, they need to change their tax laws and business laws. Out of 3M small pruvate businessss created last year, maybe half of them survived. The other half died due to poor access to funding and higher business taxes that med and large may afford, but small ones cannot. This is where diversification comes from.

The other thing? Tax evasion and capital flight. Needs to have higher punishment.

Lol @ Forbes.

Might as well be a mouthpiece of Americastrongers.

The average quality of articles on Forbes is terrible. Even the Economist is better.

What adventurism would be ended, oh enlightened Forbes contributor?
Russia intervened in its border states, unlike America with its far flung adventures. Guess which one costs more?

Pensions double in Crimea since accession:

Nice   

Meat imports to Russia in the first half of 2014 fell by 37%