Erdogan actions in Syria is a very Huge RISK for Turkey own nation territorial integrity .
He is basically in a vietnam like war ,with Kurds in Syria ,but this time the kurds receive support
from Americans ,EU and Russia with weapons.. So no idea who advised Erdogan ,that he could just
enter in Syria and pick a piece of land and later hold it without public support at home ,and that Kurds or
Syria will not fight back and could keep the fight for decades against them. .
ERdogan forgot the most basic Rule in wars.. that you never go to war without a strong support of your
people and with a very low popularity rating.. Erdogan only holds power in Turkey arresting thousands
and thousands of Turkey citizens every year.. This is not a democracy but a Tyranny..
So what could go wrong for Erdogan? Even if Turkey Capture AFrin in Full .. (Remember ISIS and Alqaeda and FSA nearly capture 80% of Syria by end 2015 but later bang Russia reversed it). That the battles will not end in afrin .. Because Kurds will have free passage in Syrian Army controlled territory and Kurds fighting in AFrin ,have support from the European Union ,and AMericans too.. and even Syrian army is giving them free passage and logistics too.. and if Turkey goes against Syrian army ,it will need to remove Russia,IRAN ,Hezbola and IRAQ coalition from Syria that are helping Assad.
This means that Turkey invaders 1)will never see a cease of fire in Syrian lands.. until they capture 100% of Syrian territory.
2)that will never disarm the Kurds ,they will always gets modern weapons NATO ,Chinese or Russians. and logistics too
of Turkey positions.
3)That Turkey will be unable to stop kurds in afrin ,until they stop syrian army helping them in Afrin at least..
and that Erdogan will not be able to defeat Syrian Army until defeats Russia and IRAN helping them.
4)That Turkey will never be able to have air superiority in Syria ,with Russia helping Syrian army with air defenses.
5)That if Erdogan attack Syrian army ,will get long range artillery hitting their positions everywhere.
6)That if Erdogan choose to start a war against Syria ,that Russia.IRAN will go on the side of Syria.
7)that Erdogan will lose a lot of soldiers trying to hold territory in Syria... and sink its economy.
8)That Erdogan will lose a lot of political support and popularity ,the more economy sinks and soldiers die.
9) And if any other civil war happens in Turkey , like the one that not long ago happened ,and the military rebel
against him.. Then you will see all this gains of Erdogan reversed in a matter of hours or few days because Loyal
Troops to the ERdogan regime will have to return to Turkey to retake control of their nation in a civil war.
10)and if Erdogan declare war against Russia is game over for Turkey.. All Russian planes will flatern Turkey positions in Syria and do the same they did to ISIS. and Turkey warship will be sink in the black sea and Ankara hit by missiles.
and already NATO said ,will not come to aid of Turkey if they start an offensive war with Russia ,will be their own.
So Erdogan hostile policies against Syria regardless of the reasons he give ,,is risking nothing less than the whole existence of the Turkey state. He Risk the facing of a much bigger civil war , and with European Union backing the opposition ,and possibly Americans too if they see the posibility of their backed kurds taking power. Turkey future will be a divided ,disbanded nation. and risk not only Losing Syrian illegally captured territory but also Turkey own territory too. This is because Nations cannot exist without a working economy and without majority of society support , that erdogan don't have. The more Turkey economy sinks. and soldiers he lose. the more Popularity erdogan will sink and the more bigger the possibilities of a major civil war..
Soviet Union collapsed when its economy collapsed..and lost like 30% of former Russia territory and Erdogan's Turkey will not be an exception to this Rule. So i don't see how Erdogan will survive in power for long..because his interference in the Syrian conflict and his support for Alqaeda and many pro Europe Turkey citizens will reject him. I do see
Turkey being split in 3 to 4 parts... This policy of Erdogan is nonsense.. total crazyness.. ERdogan will never be able
to Disarm Kurds without defeating Syrian army first and all the nations that backup Syria, ie, Russia,IRAN.
This is why Russia does not invade Ukraine , because they know it will be an endless war. that will never end ,with NATO providing weapons to Ukraine ,.They only took Crimea , because is easy to control.. is almost an island surrounded by water and no easy way for NATO to smuggle anti Russian rebels there.. and because people in Crimea fully supported Russia. In Syria in the other hand, ERdogan will be in an endless war ,because neither Kurds or Syria will allow Turkey to remain in Syria..and Russia and IRAN will be fully backing Syria to hold its place. and Syria will be aiding Kurds.. so nice game Erdogan have chosen to take.. is a guarantee failure in Syria what Erdogan face.
So if ERdogan start a war against Russia he will end being attacked in all sides..from armenia. from Syria ,from the black sea and from EU too from greece too. and will get Russia sanctions back.. destroying Turkey tourism. Erdogan is doomed.. He have no chance to win in syria ever.. he will have endless kurds and Syrians and IRAquis and Russians
pinning down Turkey army in Syria. and lots of weapons supplies with modern weapons ,superior than the ones Turkey have destroying their planes and tanks.
So i give ERdogan another 1-3 years max in power ,before he is sacked..and another civil war there..but a big one
this time better organized and backed in full by the European Union. and
Turkey losing huge territory in ALL Borders.. because Erdogan represent the biggest threat to Europe for being closely connected with Terrorism and smuggling radical muslims into Europe. Nobody in Europe likes Erdogan.. Austria is on record saying if Turkey enters in EU ,Austria will leave the EU the same day. none in eastern Europe likes Erdogan , Neither ITALY or Spain, Britain leadership is on record saying that Turkey entry into the EU under ERdogan will not get it earlier than year 3,000 .
So Turks will face a really ugly future ,similar to Ukraine today ,or even worse. with civil wars and country partitioned consequences of Erdogans abuse of power and illegal war in Syria ,and annoying all its neighbors ,including Europe .The only chance Turkey have to avoid the abyss ,is to fully restore relations for real with all its neighbors ,including Syria Government and Russia and IRAN. If Erdogan dont do it..any opposition party who get in power will do it... and will fully reverse all ERdogan gains in Syria.. Erdogan will be remembered like the dumbest Sultan ,and the man who finished Turkey state ,if he dont wake up and think in LONG TERM future of its nation.
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PapaDragon
Poor little Jihadi maggots fail in their efforts to return to Muhammadiyah.... 