Syrian War: News #11

Regular wrote:Nah, Syria is one of the few countries in the middle east that will be totally secular after the war. I would rather see Israel attack Iran, that would be real show and I don't think IDF could actually recover after it.

They're not going for a land invasion, so they'll be fine. In fact they can bomb Iran as much as they please, if Trump unleashes them.
But that's a whole different topic.

Militarov wrote:

Regular wrote:I hope Syrian AD will shoot one of the motherfuckers down, but I think their network is full of holes

Israelis are jamming the shit out of them, same like Americans did us, there is little they can do.

My understanding is that there are two air defence networks operating in Syria, Syrian and Russian, plus random RuAF airborne assets. I would expect the SyAF countrywide network to output its consolidated data into the main RuAF system in Syria which would then feed a Russian system in Russia somewhere. I would not expect the output from the RuAF systems in Syria to be fed back into the main SyAF system. It might but I doubt it.

So, if as you postulate, the IAF are jamming hard it is likely to be affecting the Syrian systems. If such jamming is blinding the RuAF then that's a pretty serious problem.

As mentioned above, this is likely to be Hezbolah/Iran stepping beyond some kind of secret arms limitation agreement and Russia and probably some in Syria were pre-warned. It could also be that no IAF aircraft actually entered Syrian airspace.

This war is murky at the best of times, especially at night.

KiloGolf wrote:

Regular wrote:Nah, Syria is one of the few countries in the middle east that will be totally secular after the war. I would rather see Israel attack Iran, that would be real show and I don't think IDF could actually recover after it.

They're not going for a land invasion, so they'll be fine. In fact they can bomb Iran as much as they please, if Trump unleashes them.
But that's a whole different topic.

Do You think they are capable of penetrating Iranian defenses?

Regular wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

Regular wrote:Nah, Syria is one of the few countries in the middle east that will be totally secular after the war. I would rather see Israel attack Iran, that would be real show and I don't think IDF could actually recover after it.

They're not going for a land invasion, so they'll be fine. In fact they can bomb Iran as much as they please, if Trump unleashes them.
But that's a whole different topic.

Do You think they are capable of penetrating Iranian defenses?

Oh yeah. They know their way around them, they trained with us around Crete. We have the same systems as Iran pretty much (S-300PMU1, Tor-M1, Hawk and Skyguard), but better Air force. At one instance they tried to surprise mock-attack Crete and they were confronted immediately at over 200 km from the island, with a pair of Mirage 2000-5Mk2 and another pair of F-16C Block 52+ (readiness). And after some time we had over a dozen more Vipers up in the air  

Erieye AEW&C covering our airspace 24/7 was a worthy investment. Since then we're the only Air Force apart from USAF and the Poles, that they've allowed to land and train from various Israeli air bases.

Problem with Iran is that the planes needed to take out 80% of INP should wage a three prong operation.

°HAARM/AR
°Protection of Strike package
°Actual delivery of Strike package.

Israel has somewhere 300/320 fighters available at any given time. With a 1/3-2/3 equation (66% availability factor) that's +/- 200 fighters.

Going through the UN IAEA findings, we find out that main targets are about 15 inside Iran.

This means A 15 formations of 4 (minimum) plus same shadow group for self defense and breach. That's 120 jets. If Ad hoc force is used for breach the all available jets or nearly would be engaged in striking Iranian sites.

Now just imagine even 10% of those planes are shot, most of them in VERY hostile area (Iran, KSA, Syria, Iraq). That's from 20 to 30 IDF pilots to Pidyon Shvuim. That's how you have a regional war in the Middle East.

So even if technically the Israel had the capability to do that, the prospect of losing a sizable portion of its Airforce and having to be humiliated in public by Iran, uh hum.

I said as much in MP.net back in 2011/12, Iran is just to big and too risky an operational challenge for Israel to do that and no one is in the mood to have Israel spread more havoc in the region. But the facts indicate that Israel simply has not the attrition numbers to sustain a Strike like that. And for good reason. Even if it shoots every fighter in Iranian inventory, the time to do that will mean that its jets will have to crash land in Qatar (at best) in the middle of IS land at worst.

So yeah, but no.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Problem with Iran is that the planes needed to take out 80% of INP should wage a three prong operation.

°HAARM/AR
°Protection of Strike package
°Actual delivery of Strike package.

Israel has somewhere 300/320 fighters available at any given time. With a 1/3-2/3 equation (66% availability factor) that's +/- 200 fighters.

Going through the UN IAEA findings, we find out that main targets are about 15 inside Iran.  

This means A 15 formations of 4 (minimum) plus same shadow group for self defense and breach. That's 120 jets. If Ad hoc force is used for breach the all available jets or nearly would be engaged in striking Iranian sites.

Now just imagine even 10% of those planes are shot, most of them in VERY hostile area (Iran, KSA, Syria, Iraq). That's from 20 to 30 IDF pilots to Pidyon Shvuim. That's how you have a regional war in the Middle East.

So even if technically the Israel had the capability to do that, the prospect of losing a sizable portion of its Airforce and having to be humiliated in public by Iran, uh hum.

I said as much in MP.net back in 2011/12, Iran is just to big and too risky an operational challenge for Israel to do that and no one is in the mood to have Israel spread more havoc in the region. But the facts indicate that Israel simply has not the attrition numbers to sustain a Strike like that. And for good reason. Even if it shoots every fighter in Iranian inventory, the time to do that will mean that its jets will have to crash land in Qatar (at best) in the middle of IS land at worst.

So yeah, but no.

That assumes they'll go for all 15 targets at once. They won't. They can do this slowly and painfully for Iran. Same as they do in Syria. They can keep trashing Iran's nuke program for years to come if they please. Iran unfortunately has not invested in their Armed forces so as to stop that. Launching IRBMs towards Israel will only make the world gear against them and bomb them some more. Trump and "Mad Dog" Mattis will have zero hesitations in landscaping that country every once in a while. The question is how far Israel is willing to take this. Putin will silently clap for ending Iran's aspirations. Nobody likes an unstable Islamic Republic with nukes right next to them, Russia is no exception.

KiloGolf wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Problem with Iran is that the planes needed to take out 80% of INP should wage a three prong operation.

°HAARM/AR
°Protection of Strike package
°Actual delivery of Strike package.

Israel has somewhere 300/320 fighters available at any given time. With a 1/3-2/3 equation (66% availability factor) that's +/- 200 fighters.

Going through the UN IAEA findings, we find out that main targets are about 15 inside Iran.  

This means A 15 formations of 4 (minimum) plus same shadow group for self defense and breach. That's 120 jets. If Ad hoc force is used for breach the all available jets or nearly would be engaged in striking Iranian sites.

Now just imagine even 10% of those planes are shot, most of them in VERY hostile area (Iran, KSA, Syria, Iraq). That's from 20 to 30 IDF pilots to Pidyon Shvuim. That's how you have a regional war in the Middle East.

So even if technically the Israel had the capability to do that, the prospect of losing a sizable portion of its Airforce and having to be humiliated in public by Iran, uh hum.

I said as much in MP.net back in 2011/12, Iran is just to big and too risky an operational challenge for Israel to do that and no one is in the mood to have Israel spread more havoc in the region. But the facts indicate that Israel simply has not the attrition numbers to sustain a Strike like that. And for good reason. Even if it shoots every fighter in Iranian inventory, the time to do that will mean that its jets will have to crash land in Qatar (at best) in the middle of IS land at worst.

So yeah, but no.

That assumes they'll go for all 15 targets at once. They won't. They can do this slowly and painfully for Iran. Same as they do in Syria.
They can keep trashing Iran for years to come if they please. Iran unfortunately has not invested in their Armed forces so as to stop that.

Actually this has to be a one shot strike, because a smaller party will get a harder time to stay alive when detected AND, don't forget, the three big prizes need refuel, because they're a 3500 km return trip.

Don't worry brother, I've done the math with literate people, including former IDF mid-range personnel. The only thing to do is hope that :

°IRI gets toppled by slightly less rigid people.
°The US has a brain-fart and goes all out.

Those are bad to f***** worse events.

Also Iran's nukes aren't made to be lobbed on Israel. Israel is a good boogeyman for the Umma. They're to insure the IRI will keep the I in IRI. That too is a bad to f***** worse fact. For that effect see DPRK's use of nukes. And I believe the DPRK leadership to be in a far worse situation than Iran.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Problem with Iran is that the planes needed to take out 80% of INP should wage a three prong operation.

°HAARM/AR
°Protection of Strike package
°Actual delivery of Strike package.

Israel has somewhere 300/320 fighters available at any given time. With a 1/3-2/3 equation (66% availability factor) that's +/- 200 fighters.

Going through the UN IAEA findings, we find out that main targets are about 15 inside Iran.  

This means A 15 formations of 4 (minimum) plus same shadow group for self defense and breach. That's 120 jets. If Ad hoc force is used for breach the all available jets or nearly would be engaged in striking Iranian sites.

Now just imagine even 10% of those planes are shot, most of them in VERY hostile area (Iran, KSA, Syria, Iraq). That's from 20 to 30 IDF pilots to Pidyon Shvuim. That's how you have a regional war in the Middle East.

So even if technically the Israel had the capability to do that, the prospect of losing a sizable portion of its Airforce and having to be humiliated in public by Iran, uh hum.

I said as much in MP.net back in 2011/12, Iran is just to big and too risky an operational challenge for Israel to do that and no one is in the mood to have Israel spread more havoc in the region. But the facts indicate that Israel simply has not the attrition numbers to sustain a Strike like that. And for good reason. Even if it shoots every fighter in Iranian inventory, the time to do that will mean that its jets will have to crash land in Qatar (at best) in the middle of IS land at worst.

So yeah, but no.

That assumes they'll go for all 15 targets at once. They won't. They can do this slowly and painfully for Iran. Same as they do in Syria.
They can keep trashing Iran for years to come if they please. Iran unfortunately has not invested in their Armed forces so as to stop that.

Actually this has to be a one shot strike, because a smaller party will get a harder time to stay alive when detected AND, don't forget, the three big prizes need refuel, because they're a 3500 km return trip.

Don't worry brother, I've done the math with literate people, including former IDF mid-range personnel. The only thing to do is hope that :

°IRI gets toppled by slightly less rigid people.
°The US has a brain-fart and goes all out.

Those are bad to f***** worse events.

Yeah I agree, I edited the post to reflect that as you replied. Israel seems to have become soft these days. They can't go around wagging war as they used to, the new generations are tired. Netanyahu is also currently under fire (he is super pro-Putin). If Labor party wins the next elections, probably Iran will be safe.

My problem with IRI is that they will get a lot of muscle back, even second hand one over time and overtime they will acquire enough know how to sustain their own rhythm of nuclear break out, so the facts are these.

Obomba fucked up. He allowed Iran to achieve two things.

1. Legalize its Nuclear issue.
2. Avoid an open war which would have collapsed the regime, despite any kind of resistance from a large part of the population.

So yeah, the IRI will stay at least for a generation. And Israel will have to look over its shoulder for that timeframe (as much as Iran).

This is how an ill taught executive leads to an ill thought policy and strategic disasters.

Enjoy the poopoo Amrika.

Can someone move this stuff into an Iran thread please?

JohninMK wrote:Can someone move this stuff into an Iran thread please?

Yeah sorry, I'll copy-pasta this straight to the Iran page.

Anyway you look at it israel bombing Syria is nothing but a war crime. Who knows how many civilians have died and how much these bombings have helped jihadists. The fact that israel bombs SAA assets means its an ally of wahhabi terrorists. Russia and syria should send an ultimatum that if any munitions are fired against the territory of Syria by Israel. Russia will shoot down any israeli military aircraft in Lebanon or near the syrian border.

How can this jew scum continue to act like the middle east is its own target practice range? I want Tel aviv to become an iskander and klub testing ground.

KiloGolf wrote:

eehnie wrote:No Putin respects not the positions and interests of Israel in the region. The vote in the UN Security Council in december proved it.

I don't think Israel has time for the UN. Restricting Jews in building houses in Judea and Samaria is a non-starter. Meanwhile in Yemen GCC is getting away with literal murder and cultural destruction of epic proportions.

Israel has not enough time to cry and to call one by one to all the countries who voted right way in the UN Security Council the last december.

This forum is a little rare.

I see too much Russian lovers that are fans of the adversaries of Russia (Israel, Turkey or South Korea) and are against the allies of Russia (Belarus, Iran, China,...).

Very rare to say the minimum.

eehnie wrote:allies of Russia (Iran, China,...)

And yet none of these countries are allied to Russia.

KomissarBojanchev wrote:How can this jew scum continue to act like the middle east is its own target practice range? I want Tel aviv to become an iskander and klub testing ground.  

Can we tone it down on the Judeo-Persian teen drama?

We don't even know what materiel taken out exactly, we just know that there was boom at the airport.

PapaDragon wrote:
Can we tone it down on the Judeo-Persian teen drama?

We don't even know what materiel taken out exactly, we just know that there was boom at the airport.

It's more Isreal carried out an airstrike and was not opposed again, what they destroyed is of little matter this merely enables them to get more gutsy.

This sets an example, that is the danger here.

KiloGolf wrote:

eehnie wrote:allies of Russia (Iran, China,...)

And yet none of these countries are allied to Russia.

Lol, in which world are you living?

PS: Even Belarus is hated by these rare fans of Russia.

eehnie wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

eehnie wrote:allies of Russia (Iran, China,...)

And yet none of these countries are allied to Russia.

Lol, in which world are you living?

PS: Even Belarus is hated by these rare fans of Russia.

Well, Russia itself is trying to cut its reliance on Belarus on certain military components. Their relations are not all flowers tbh, for quite some time now.

Haha, that ally Belarus should pay their fucking dept to Russia.
I only hope that Belarus will not go Ukrainian way, it's very clean European country, it's not a pigsty like You see in most Eastern Europe. I suggest everyone to visit the country as now it has 5 day visa free travel Sorry for ofp!

Militarov wrote:

eehnie wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

eehnie wrote:allies of Russia (Iran, China,...)

And yet none of these countries are allied to Russia.

Lol, in which world are you living?

PS: Even Belarus is hated by these rare fans of Russia.

Well, Russia itself is trying to cut its reliance on Belarus on certain military components. Their relations are not all flowers tbh, for quite some time now.

Lol, what a bench of people trying to fool and mislead.

Are you trying to say that Russia would happily increase its reliance on other countries (better allies of Russia than Belarus) on certain military components?

Everyone is able to understand why Russia does it after the experience with Ukraine and the US-Israel promoted coups. Everyone knows this is not because of faults of the government of Belarus.

calm wrote:Again
SDF Units Encircle Batch Of ISIS-Held Villages Northwest Of Al-Raqqah

SDF captured 45 more villages from IS
That's something like 200 from start of the operation?

#SDF now control IS pocket in NW #Raqqa 2 day after besieged (45 villages)

SeigSoloyvov wrote:.........

.....It's more Isreal carried out an airstrike and was not opposed again, what they destroyed is of little matter this merely enables them to get more gutsy.

This sets an example, that is the danger here.

There are rumors that F-35s were used in this one. If that is true than not only will Russia not object but will probably subtly encourage plenty more of strikes like this one.

Reason: VKS has pretty much every radar in it's inventory parked in Syria and this is sweetest and most unexpected opportunity to gather lot's of very useful data on F-35s performance and more importantly, it's radar signature.

Our guys cracked F-117s signature in several days with ancient gear and while being bombed beyond belief.

Compared to that this will be cakewalk for VKS. New stuff and practically peacetime in comparison.

PapaDragon wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:.........

.....It's more Isreal carried out an airstrike and was not opposed again, what they destroyed is of little matter this merely enables them to get more gutsy.

This sets an example, that is the danger here.

There are rumors that F-35s were used in this one. If that is true than not only will Russia not object but will probably subtly encourage plenty more of strikes like this one.

Reason: VKS has pretty much every radar in it's inventory parked in Syria and this is sweetest and most unexpected opportunity to gather lot's of very useful data on F-35s performance and more importantly, it's radar signature.

Our guys cracked F-117s signature in several days with ancient gear and while being bombed beyond belief.

Compared to that this will be cakewalk for VKS. New stuff and practically peacetime in comparison.

Putin has green-lighted such strikes with Netanyahu. This is most clear as of now.

Just saw a report on tv where the it says the locals think the airstrike in Syria was Israeli because of the power of the explosions... in other words they don't think it was a terrorist attack because the ordinance seemed to be so powerful.

Now this was an ammo dump that was hit which pretty much explains the power of the explosions so removes the need to blame Israel for this.

Perhaps we should wait and find out what actually happened before we start speculating F-35 did this or that?

GarryB wrote:so removes the need to blame Israel for this.

OMG...

Everyone in the news in Europe is saying it was Israel.