PLA Navy and Naval Air Force

Isos wrote:

China needs to secure its oil import first to be a real threat to anyone. As long as Russia or US can destroy their tankers their army will be a dragon only on paper.

Tabks, ships and planes won't go anywhere if their oil import is halted for a month.

As long as China maintains their "peaceful rise" strategy then no one is going to mess with them.  The Chinese do not use military force to enforce their foreign policy.  They use money they think grows on trees backed by a government that will always bail them out when they can't pay.

As long as Russia or US can destroy their tankers their army will be a dragon only on paper.

By the same token, China can destroy Japanese, Taiwanese & S. Korean tankers even w/o using her sub/surface navy. After that, those nations will kick the US out for sure.
They r building pipelines & can build more from Iran & Azerbaijan via C. Asia.

Isos wrote:It's working.

But it looks like what USSR used to do with its friends when supportig arabs wars against israel but chinese seem to be much more agressive and don't care who rules the county as long as it serves them.

At 300% debt to GDP it doesn't look like they can sustain government guarantees for very long. They are going to have to allow mass bankruptcies to clean out the zombie corporations leaching off of the system. Having enough empty residential and commercial space to house every man, woman and child in Russia will have a cost as well.

Tsavo Lion wrote:

As long as Russia or US can destroy their tankers their army will be a dragon only on paper.

By the same token, China can destroy Japanese, Taiwanese & S. Korean tankers even w/o using her sub/surface navy. After that, those nations will kick the US out for sure.
They r building pipelines & can build more from Iran & Azerbaijan via C. Asia.

How would they do that if they port on the Pacific side of those countries? Do you think the DF-21D actually works?

They can interdict tankers in & around S/E. China Seas with land based aviation &/ AShMs. Also their maritime militia/CG can shell tankers.
US oil/gas will be a lot more expensive & ruin their economies.
Remember the tanker war in the Persian/Arabian Gulf in the 1980s? Prices & insurance went sky high compared to now, & the USS Stark was nearly sunk with 47 killed.

Tsavo Lion wrote:They can interdict tankers in & around S/E. China Seas with land based aviation &/ AShMs. Also their maritime militia/CG can shell tankers.
US oil/gas will be a lot more expensive & ruin their economies.
Remember the tanker war in the Persian/Arabian Gulf in the 1980s? Prices & insurance went sky high compared to now, & the USS Stark was nearly sunk with 47 killed.

What can they interdict if Japan, ROK and Taiwan air forces are shooting down every Chinese aircraft they see? They are not defenceless.

From bases in the SC Sea they can control all traffic; Japan will have to send her navy there. Land based AshMS can hit tankers from the coast or deeper inside China. Japanese tankers have only 40 mi. interval between them from the Gulf to Japan.

Tsavo Lion wrote:From bases in the SC Sea they can control all traffic; Japan will have to send her navy there. Land based AshMS can hit tankers from the coast or deeper inside China. Japanese tankers have only 40 mi. interval between them from the Gulf to Japan.

Taiwan has cruise missiles you know.  Those SCS atolls would be the first targets.  Any shipping in the state of hostilities would be traveling well away from Mainland based AshMs that couldn't hit them on the Pacific side of those countries.  With all three countries running air interdiction China couldn't do squat about it.  You would find their merchant marine at the bottom of the ocean first.  China could take out Taiwan by itself, but if all three of those countries teamed up China couldn't beat all of them in the air or sea.

Fine, that leaves Japan.
The PLAAF has sent bombers, fighters & EW/air tanker planes into W. Pacific beyond the 1st Island Chain several times already- if oil tankers avoid the China Seas, they'll still be within range.
Pakistan can help with waging a tanker war in the Arabian Sea too, esp. since India & Japan r de-facto allies.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Fine, that leaves Japan.
The PLAAF has sent bombers, fighters & EW/air tanker planes into W. Pacific beyond the 1st Island Chain several times already- if oil tankers avoid the China Seas, they'll still be within range.
Pakistan can help with waging a tanker war in the Arabian Sea too, esp. since India & Japan r de-facto allies.

Japan has F-35s, F-15s, homemade F-16s... what is PLAAF going to do with antiquated Badgers trying to refuel J-10s over the Pacific?

They'll soon get Y-20 tankers & can also convert some of their Il-76s.
AshMs have enough range w/o any tanker support needed to fighters.
SSKs, CG & militia can wait for them near choke points & report their position or attack them themselves. A few days of that & Japan will start talking about capitulating. USN subs decimated Japanese shipping in WWII.

Do you think an AMRAAM cares if it is a Y-20, Il-76 or a Badger? The end result is the same.

J-10s venturing out into the Pacific to try to get extended shipping lanes will be easy pickings.

The Kilos are the best submarines they have and they don't work. Their domestic submarines are noisy and easily detected.

Their CG has no aircraft and their missile boats are easy pickings. Japan has a healthy stock of air launched Harpoons and better SSKs to make PLAN think twice about it.

Even if all of that is true (Kilos/Yuans don't work?!), China can make Japan's shipping suffer. She has dozens of longer range Su-30s/J-11s/15/16/20s & J-6 drones; older SSKs &/ fishing boats can swarm tankers & blow them up with torpedoes/RPGs. The JMSDF/AF will be overwhelmed.
As before, China can also stop exports of rare earth metals that the Japanese electronics industry needs & other trade. Russia needs strong China for trade, BRI transit fees & investments; she'll help with logistics, Intel, etc. So the US & Japan better not mess with China.

The Kilos don't work because they never trained their crews or ordered maintenance contracts for them.  The Yuans are too noisy to operate outside of Chinese controlled waters.

How do you think the PLAAF will fair against the F-35?  Remind you now they are not under cover of SAMs.

China is not the only place that has rare earth minerals.  It does not take long to open a new mine.  If China attacks Japanese shipping you can bet the Japanese will reciprocate.

Vladimir79 wrote:The Kilos don't work because they never trained their crews or ordered maintenance contracts for them.

Why base them on Hainan if they r so useless for combat/patrols?
http://www.hisutton.com/China_Stretched_KILO.html

More on Yuans:  https://news.usni.org/2015/08/31/essay-inside-the-design-of-chinas-yuan-class-submarine
https://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/rare-look-inside-chinas-type-041-yuan-class-aip-submarine.79104/

If they r so noisy, why would Pakistan buy them at all? They have better things to spend $ on!
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-has-built-the-biggest-baddest-conventional-submarine-18629

How do you think the PLAAF will fair against the F-35?

 They r grounded pending investigation into the latest crash.

China is not the only place that has rare earth minerals. It does not take long to open a new mine.

Yes, in Afghanistan that is unsafe & where China also invests.
 

If China attacks Japanese shipping you can bet the Japanese will reciprocate.

They won't attack 1st, only if the Chinese shipping is interfered with by US & Japan. China has extensive land links while Japan doesn't, making her more vulnerable.

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/

A “Fortress Fleet” for China

Defend the First Island Chain

Once Taiwan is taken, China will have direct access to the W. Pacific.
Even w/o it, she can defend herself well as is.

They also launched two more type 52D destroyers last friday.
This is crazy shipbuilding.

I rarely venture here because the bias against China is so strong. A huge waste of time.

Powerful takes from Vladimir "J-10B's PESA radar is somehow the radar of J-20" 79, as usual.

Of course the Kilos have crews, that conspiracy theory is beyond ridiculous.

Chinese diesel subs aren't noisy. (The Improved Type 093 SSN's are probably already decent as well, but that's another topic.) They have built almost 20 Yuan's for a reason. Heck, the Songs were already good.

Will I go on?

Nah...

Kimppis wrote:I rarely venture here because the bias against China is so strong. A huge waste of time.

Powerful takes from Vladimir "J-10B's PESA radar is somehow the radar of J-20" 79, as usual.

Of course the Kilos have crews, that conspiracy theory is beyond ridiculous.

Chinese diesel subs aren't noisy. (The Improved Type 093 SSN's are probably already decent as well, but that's another topic.) They have built almost 20 Yuan's for a reason. Heck, the Songs were already good.

Will I go on?

Nah...

Do what you must but the facts are China never signed a further maintenance agreement for the Kilos. They tore two of them apart for reverse engineering and the crews do not get any training from Russian advisers. They never did establish a maintenance programme for them and they rarely if ever go to sea. The only reason they bought them was to reverse engineer it for their indigenous SSK programme.

We don't know how noisy the Yuan class are but we do know they use inferior sonars.

Vladimir79 wrote:

Kimppis wrote:I rarely venture here because the bias against China is so strong. A huge waste of time.

Powerful takes from Vladimir "J-10B's PESA radar is somehow the radar of J-20" 79, as usual.

Of course the Kilos have crews, that conspiracy theory is beyond ridiculous.

Chinese diesel subs aren't noisy. (The Improved Type 093 SSN's are probably already decent as well, but that's another topic.) They have built almost 20 Yuan's for a reason. Heck, the Songs were already good.

Will I go on?

Nah...

Do what you must but the facts are China never signed a further maintenance agreement for the Kilos.  They tore two of them apart for reverse engineering and the crews do not get any training from Russian advisers.  They never did establish a maintenance programme for them and they rarely if ever go to sea. The only reason they bought them was to reverse engineer it for their indigenous SSK programme.  

We don't know how noisy the Yuan class are but we do know they use inferior sonars.  

Buying 12 submarines just to reverse engineering? Doesnt sound that economical or practical.

walle83 wrote:

Buying 12 submarines just to reverse engineering? Doesnt sound that economical or practical.

China got the second batch of 8 for $1.6 billion. At those prices it was very economical if you never had any intention of purchasing the maintenance contracts which is the real bread and butter. It was the only way for them to get access to the improved technologies not incorporated into the first.