New Multipolar World

Good analysis of the utter delusion of western analysts and deciders.

I want to know would this Russia, China and Pakistan alliance hurt Russian relations with India?

Is India drifting away from Russia?

https://eurasiantimes.com/countering-quad-is-there-a-china-russia-pakistan-strategic-nexus-in-the-making/

andalusia wrote:I want to know would this Russia, China and Pakistan alliance hurt Russian relations with India?

Is India drifting away from Russia?

By their own choice, since back when Obama was US President, and is clearly the Modi government 's strategic decision to align with the US.

slasher wrote:

andalusia wrote:I want to know would this Russia, China and Pakistan alliance hurt Russian relations with India?

Is India drifting away from Russia?

By their own choice, since back when Obama was US President, and is clearly the Modi government 's strategic decision to align with the US.

Russia has sold India all those fighter jets and Russia wants to sell them more which they shouldn't.  I hope the US doesn't get their hands on them.  

Who does Russia support in the China/India border disputes?

"May affect the economic leadership of the United States": the US is concerned about the policy of Russia and China to abandon the dollar, by Vladimir Tsegoev and Ksenia Kalinkina for RTNEWS in Russian. 29.07.2021.

The United States drew attention to the policy pursued by Russia and China to abandon the dollar. In recent years, Moscow and Beijing have sought to reduce the use of the US currency in their economies. In particular, the parties are actively increasing settlements in national currencies, as well as developing their own financial and payment systems. American analysts do not exclude that over time, such actions may affect the status of the dollar and the global economic leadership of the United States. This is stated in the report of the US Congressional Research Service, which RT got acquainted with.

The United States plans to explore the prospects for de-dollarization in Russia and China. Such information is contained in the report of the US Congressional Research Service.

According to representatives of the department, for more than ten years now, Moscow and Beijing have been striving to reduce the use of the dollar in their economies. So, according to the authors of the study, countries are trying to protect themselves from the sanctions of Washington, as well as to reduce the influence of the economic and monetary policy of the US.

“Although Russia and China have somewhat reduced the use of the dollar in their trade, both countries, like most others, still rely heavily on the dollar ... However, over time, if efforts to de-dollarization bring results, this could affect American sanctions, the American economy, as well as the global economic leadership of the United States", the report says.

American analysts recalled that since the Second World War, the dollar has remained the dominant reserve currency in the global market. This fact, in turn, allows the United States to maintain a leading position in the international financial and economic arena, experts say.

"The dominant position of the US dollar in cross-border transactions gives the United States unique significance and leverage through policies such as financial sanctions that impede access to the US financial system or the use of the US dollar in international trade," the report's authors emphasize.

Nevertheless, in the past few years, the share of the dollar in world reserves has been systematically decreasing . So, if back in 2015 the American currency occupied about 66% of the total volume of global financial reserves, then by the end of 2020 the indicator dropped below 59%. This is evidenced by the data of the International Monetary Fund.

One of the reasons for the observed dynamics was the trade wars conducted by Washington during the presidency of Donald Trump. Viktor Supyan, professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, shared this opinion in a conversation with RT. According to him, the introduction by the United States of a number of tariff restrictions on its partners had a negative impact on the position of the dollar as the main reserve currency of the world.

“Under Trump, the United States pursued a not completely balanced, chaotic policy in relations with its partners - it introduced sanctions against European allies, Canada, and also the countries of Southeast Asia. Nobody liked this, of course. As a result, in order to insure themselves against such unpredictable actions in the future, states began to actively switch to settlements in national currencies, ”Supyan explained.

In addition, the decline in the share of the dollar in global reserves may be associated with the growth of multipolarity in the world economy. This point of view in an interview with RT was expressed by the analyst of FG "Finam" Alexey Korenev.

“The world is becoming multipolar, and countries are increasingly beginning to negotiate with each other, bypassing the United States. I think this trend will continue, because the dominance of the American currency puts states in the position of being dependent on a certain "boss" in the person of the States. Nobody wants this, especially Russia and China, ”added Korenev.

Beijing way

According to American analysts, now the dollar is still an important component for the Chinese economy, and the US national currency occupies about 50-60% of the reserves of the Asian republic. Experts attribute this to the fact that the United States is the largest sales market for goods from China. In addition, Beijing still mainly conducts payments for exports to other countries, as well as in the framework of the One Belt One Road project, in dollars.

Meanwhile, China is actively taking steps to de-dollarize its economy. In particular, the country is trying to increase the use of the yuan in trade deals with its partners, including Russia.

Note that over the past seven years, the share of settlements in national currencies between Moscow and Beijing has grown almost tenfold . If back in 2013-2014, countries carried out 2-3% of all transactions in rubles and yuan, then by the end of 2020 the corresponding figure was about 24-25%. This was previously stated by the Russian ambassador to China, Andrei Denisov.

In addition, Beijing has repeatedly shown interest in further developing the national payment system and promoting its own digital currency. As noted by American analysts in their report, through such initiatives, China is trying to create alternative options for the global economic, financial, trade and technological networks, which are currently controlled by the United States.

“I believe that the global influence of the United States will decline, simply because they are physically unable to maintain the dominant that they previously possessed. In this regard, China is a very powerful economic power, it is growing more and more actively every year and is likely to overtake the United States in the coming years. Next in line is India. It is assumed that by 2035 India will take second place after China, displacing the United States in third, "said Alexey Korenev.

Russian insurance

Russia, in turn, stepped up efforts to de-dollarize the economy in 2014, when Washington imposed sanctions on Moscow over the situation in Ukraine. Subsequently, the United States began to increase sanctions pressure on Russia due to unsubstantiated "malicious actions" attributed to it, which included, for example, "interference" in the American elections.

As analysts from the Congressional Research Service note, in the issue of de-dollarization of the economy, Moscow is focused on three areas. We are talking about reducing the share of the dollar in reserves, reducing the volume of settlements in the American currency when conducting trade operations, as well as creating its own national payment system.

Thus, Russia is trying to protect itself from the risks of new restrictions. Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari information and analytical center, spoke about this in an interview with RT.

“As part of the sanctions rhetoric, Russia may be banned from transactions with the dollar, at least to legal entities. This option is likely, it is not completely ruled out. The issue of disconnecting Russia from the international payment system SWIFT has also been repeatedly raised, which may complicate payments in dollars and other reserve currencies for export goods. So, on the one hand, de-dollarization is an attempt to hedge himself, ”Milchakova said.

In 2014, Russia, as an analogue of SWIFT, developed the Financial Messaging System (SPFS). As noted in the Central Bank, the platform guarantees the uninterrupted transmission of payment orders within the country and abroad. Also in 2014, after Visa and Mastercard stopped servicing the cards of several banks that fell under Western sanctions, a decision was made in Russia to create a National Payment Card System.

In addition, as part of the de-dollarization in 2018, Moscow began to actively sell off US debt securities. Then, from March to May, investments in American bonds decreased by more than six times - from $ 96 billion to $ 14.9 billion, as a result of which Russia left the list of the largest holders of US government debt. According to the latest data from the US Treasury, in May 2021 this figure dropped to $ 3.8 billion.

In addition, over the past three years, the share of the dollar in the international reserves of the Central Bank has more than halved - from 45.8% to 21.2%. At the same time, the share of the euro increased by almost a third - from 21.7% to 29.2%, and the yuan - fourfold, from 2.8% to 12.8%. Along with this, in June 2021, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank announced their decision to completely abandon the storage of funds of the National Wealth Fund in dollars.

Risk assessment

Against this background, American experts note that if Russia and China in the future still manage to "significantly reduce the use of the dollar", for example by increasing the share of trade settlements in another currency or developing a digital currency, the United States may face certain "consequences."

In this regard, analysts have formulated several questions for their possible consideration by the United States Congress. In particular, they are concerned about what factors could contribute to the success of de-dollarization policies in Russia and China, and what are the signs that the global role of the dollar may be at risk.

In addition, experts raised the question of whether Congress should oblige the US Treasury Department to prepare an annual report on the use of the dollar in the international economy. "If so, should this report address the use of sanctions and the role of the dollar?" - concluded the representatives of the research service.

One of the key challenges for the American currency in the foreseeable future may be the refusal of Moscow and Beijing from the dollar in payments for energy resources. This opinion was shared by the head of the laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Institute for Applied Economic Research, RANEPA, Alexander Abramov, in an interview with RT.

"If Russia and China manage to move the dollar in the field of settlements for oil and gas in the global market and they convince producers in the Middle East to trade and price oil and gas not only in dollars, but also in other currencies, then this will be an unpleasant surprise for the United States." , - considers Abramov.

A similar point of view was previously expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in early June. As the head of state noted, the withdrawal of oil companies from settlements in dollars "will be a very serious blow" to the American currency and its status. At the same time, the Russian leader declared his unwillingness to use de-dollarization in “political fights”.

“We're not going to do this. But the very logic of the development of the world economic system, the world monetary system, suggests that a plurality of reserve currencies is needed to guarantee the safety and stability of the world economy and financial system. We are thinking about this carefully, ”Putin stressed.

https://russian.rt.com/world/article/889964-ssha-dedollarizaciya-rossiya-kitai

Russia has sold India all those fighter jets and Russia wants to sell them more which they shouldn't. I hope the US doesn't get their hands on them.

Who does Russia support in the China/India border disputes?

70% of Indian weapons are Russian, so if they want to turn to the US then their military is in serious trouble because it will be very very expensive to dump 70% of their systems and equipment and to replace it with western equivalents... especially when that 70% probably constituted perhaps 20% of the cost of their military, with the 30% western stuff costing 80% of their budget.

Another factor is that I rather doubt the US would lease them an SSN for any price let alone the only aircraft they could offer are the F-35 and the F-15 with no assembly options.

Joint ventures with India and US companies are pretty unlikely, and support for US equipment normally gets paid for by US aide which can only be spent on US military equipment of their choosing... and a lot of it is loans that have to be paid back anyway.

Russia & China continue ditching US dollars in settlements in favor of national currencies, 04/09/2021.

Gazprom Neft will switch from US dollars to yuan and rubles to pay for refueling aircraft flying to or from China, the company’s CEO Alexander Dyukov told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum.

“We are starting in September, and by the end of the year we can transfer virtually all payments for aviation fuel in China to yuan,” Dyukov said. He added that settlements for refueling Chinese airliners at Russian airports will be converted into rubles.

The agreement has been reached between Gazprom Neft, which operates 34 airports in China, and China's national jet fuel operator, after a lengthy period of talks regarding a move away from making payments in US dollars.

This is the first time, however, for the Russian-Chinese aviation fuel business to transfer payments to national currencies. According to Dyukov, test settlements in yuan and rubles showed an additional economic effect.

Dyukov also said his company and the Chinese operator plan to double total volumes of aircraft fueling both in Russia and China to some 250,000 tons by 2025. The total volume of Gazprom Neft aircraft fueling stations in China increased to 56.5 thousand tons in the first half of 2021, 12% higher than the same period last year and 29% higher than in 2019.

Moscow and Beijing have been pushing for a greater role of their respective currencies on the global financial market and have made a number of steps to lower their US dollar holdings in the past several years.

https://www.rt.com/business/533870-russia-china-ditch-dollar-transactions/

Removing the middle man America from getting a cut of every transaction... excellent.

PARIS: France's foreign affairs minister agreed with his Indian counterpart to work on a programme to promote "a truly multilateral international order," the French foreign ministry said on Saturday.

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/86322932.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Will this result in France leaving HATO and distancing itself from most of the EU, or will this result in all of the EU reevaluating its subservience to the US... especially when the EU suffers rather more than the US does... like the sanctions against Russia... the US didn't have a lot of ties to cut so they had to get Europe involved to cut their more substantial ties to try to damage Russia and also the EU.

Now the US is looking to China... a country that has invested time and money and resources to create trade links with the EU... and the US is trying to stop that to hurt China... but this will hurt the EU too...

How long before the EU wakes up and realises China and Russia are not enemies at all... their biggest enemy is the US.

George1 wrote:PARIS: France's foreign affairs minister agreed with his Indian counterpart to work on a programme to promote "a truly multilateral international order," the French foreign ministry said on Saturday.

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/86322932.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

China is the largest trading partner of Australia and will remain so in the years to come.

US, UK deal with Australia is being touted as being primarily to contain China but its primary aim will be to contain India in the long run a well thought out hedge by US, UK to enable control in IOR much into the future via proxy.

GarryB wrote:How long before the EU wakes up and realises China and Russia are not enemies at all... their biggest enemy is the US.

China was never considered an enemy by any European nation. The biggest ally of China in Europe is U.K. If China was indeed considered to be an enemy why did EU members of G-7 vote against the imposition of sanctions on China? China is among the top 3 trading partners of E.U

Russia of course is considered to be an adversary (that too by not all the European nations)

Why France did not recall the French Ambassador from London

Beautifully crafted slap to the face.... hahaha...

The thing is that they pretend to be fighting terrorism, but what they are actually fighting is anyone who opposes US interests which more often than not actually puts them in bed with the very terrorists they claim to be working against.

This is an interesting article about China expanding their navy:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-launching-equivalent-royal-navy-135054897.html

China was never considered an enemy by any European nation. The biggest ally of China in Europe is U.K.

A quick look at history would say you are right, but only because a farmer does not see his sheep or cows as his enemy, but resources he can use to put food on his plate and money in his pocket... pretty much how they saw everyone.

{sarcasm}Wow... that guy is crazy... he thinks that just because he is leader of a country he can make decisions based on his own countries interests and not do what the US demands he do?

Mad as a stick...{/sarcasm}

Russia and the United States agreed to build a replacement for the UN, by Dmitry Bavyrin for VZGLYAD. 03.03.2023.

The G20, which consists of 19 states and the EU, has accepted another union - the African Union. This reform shows that the G20 can become the basis of a new global architecture, no longer composed of countries, but of blocs. The emergence of such a "new world" has been warned for a long time, and the struggle of the superpowers for Africa has clearly brought it closer.

It is hard to even imagine that Russia and the United States can now agree on something concrete, except for abstract constructions "for all the good things." For example, both Moscow and Washington say what peace is in Ukraine, but they see its implementation in practice in too different ways.

And now: at a meeting of the heads of the foreign ministries of the G20 states (that is, Russia, the United States, the European Union and 17 other largest economies in the world), they reaffirmed their “commitment to combat climate change”, but could not even agree on a joint final statement.

Specifically, they did not agree on two points: with a direct and indirect condemnation of Russian actions in Ukraine, which was opposed not only by Russia, but also by China (however, we note that India was not the host of the summit, honestly trying to achieve unity from the guests at least in something) anything).

But there is a significant exception: the G20 nevertheless agreed to admit another full-fledged member of the club - this is the African Union . Everyone came out in support - both the United States and Russia, although from the point of view of the Russian language, the life of journalists will now become more complicated (G21 is against the "big twenty-one", there are more obscene options).

It would seem that this is also not news in an era when, under the slogan BLM (“Black Lives Matter”), cities are being smashed, and entire states are obsessed with “diversity”. Something like this was to be expected, although the point here is not BLM at all and not political correctness. The fact is that Africa is “not the same anymore”, although this is also not news.

More precisely, Africa is still very diverse, and the African Union includes states that are not much alike, including suffering and unpromising ones. However, the continent, which previously had deposits of minerals and super-minerals, has for some time now had money, some kind of middle class and an interest in development.

In part, Africa is turning into an important market, a promising space for investment, a pantry of new opportunities. In the conditions of the redistribution of the world, a real struggle has unfolded for it, and Russia has a very strong position , while the shares of Western countries are falling sharply.

A good example is Sergei Lavrov's "double tour" of the Black Continent. At the same time, the president of France, which previously had a huge influence on its former colonies, set off on a large African voyage.

The difference is that Lavrov is already preparing the second Russia-Africa summit with the participation of all countries of the continent (Africans see Moscow as an important partner ). And the journey of Emmanuel Macron took place against the backdrop of the collapse of previous geopolitical constructions: the French military was shown the door to Burkina Faso, where they were located for more than half a century, and are preparing to do the same in Niger, where Paris has the largest military base on the continent.

“The era of French Africa is over,” Macron admits , pretending this is good news for him as informal tutelage over former colonies is being replaced by a “new balanced partnership.” It is clear that this is an attempt to put a good face on a bad game, a way to maintain influence under a new sign. The main thing is that this is part of all the same processes - the struggle for the location of African countries.

However, the adoption of the African Union in the G20 is something more. It is possible that this is a key step towards the construction of a new world order - more precisely, a new organization that will monitor the world order.

Now this task is entrusted to the UN and the UN Security Council, created as a result of the Second World War.

The UN is not coping with its task - everyone recognizes this, but nothing better has yet been invented, which is also recognized by almost everyone.

Russia is also interested in preserving the UN due to the fact that it has the right of veto in the Security Council. However, the emergence of at least one more organization of this type in the future is very likely due to the fact that the current one does not reflect the real balance of power, and its “birth trauma” cannot be treated.

This is more from the field of futurism than real political planning, but a significant part of experts both here and in the West believe that the new "international Areopagus" will be tailored according to the principle of blocs - if not military-political, then at least economic (in which without politics, too).

The adoption of the African Union in the G20 as a full member, but as a bloc, is a step in this direction. And this is not the first step. In the G20, only 19 members are countries, and the 20th is the European Union.

It is not difficult to foresee further steps: why are only unions of Europeans and Africans represented in the organization? There are similar blocs in Southeast Asia (ASEAN; 10 countries), the Arabs (League of Arab States; 22 countries), and in Latin America there are several of them: for socialists - the Bolivarian Alliance (10 countries), for deep integration - MERCOSUR (four countries), for all in general - CELAC, Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

On the Russian side, in this regard, we can recall the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Intersections should not be embarrassing, just as it was not embarrassing before that Germany, Italy and France are represented in the G20 both “personally” and as part of the EU. South Africa is also a member both there and in the African Union, from Southeast Asia in the G20 Indonesia, and from the Arabs - Saudi Arabia.

The only embarrassing thing is that the construction of the new world is preceded by the destruction of the old. Now the process is underway - and no one knows how it can end. The search for a balance of interests through the representation of economic blocs with individual membership of the richest and most influential states is just one of the many ideas discussed: perhaps bad, perhaps, on the contrary, excellent, when compared with what will be built in the end.

But a start has been made, and with the ardent support of the warring powers. And this basically proves that the new can be built on the foundation of the old. Not necessarily on the ruins formed during the fierce struggle for world peace.

https://vz.ru/politics/2023/3/3/1201576.html

Former Taiwanese president plans historic trip – media, 03.20.2023.

Ma Ying-jeou will pay a visit to China this month amid increased tensions with Beijing, his office has reportedly confirmed.

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who made history by meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in 2015, reportedly plans to break new diplomatic ground again by making an unprecedented trip to the mainland later this month.

Ma will travel to China from March 27 to April 7 and visit the cities of Nanjing, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, and Shanghai, his office confirmed to Reuters on Sunday. His representatives did not disclose whether he intends to meet with Xi or any other Chinese government officials during the trip.

The visit will mark the first trip to the mainland by a current or former Taiwanese leader since Chiang Kai-shek’s supporters fled to the island in 1949. Chiang held his last meeting with Mao Zedong, leader of the Chinese communist revolution, in 1945. Then-President Ma and Xi held their historic 2015 summit in Singapore, seeking to ease tensions and boost cooperation.

Since Ma’s successor, Tsai Ing-wen, took office in 2016, relations between the self-governing island and Beijing have deteriorated. China, which considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province and still part of its sovereign territory, has vowed to reunify with the island. The US government recognizes, but does not endorse, China’s claim to Taiwan under the One-China policy.

However, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated since last August, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defied warnings from Beijing and went through with a planned visit to Taipei. China responded by ramping up military drills around Taiwan and cutting off military and climate ties with Washington. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry warned earlier this month of a possible “total blockade” of the Taiwan Strait by Chinese forces.

Ma remains a senior member of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party. The KMT has traditionally opposed pushes for full Taiwanese independence and has sought peaceful relations with China. KMT deputy chairman Andrew Hsia visited Beijing last month and met with Wang Huning, a senior Chinese Communist Party leader.

Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which has accused the KMT of seeking to sell out Taiwan, condemned Hsia for going to “pay court to the communists.” The current president also blocked Ma’s planned trip to Hong Kong in 2016, citing security concerns, and he was forced to give his speech on cross-strait relations via teleconference.

Ma will visit sites connected to World War II and the 1911 revolution that ousted the last Chinese emperor and launched the Republic of China, his office said.

https://www.rt.com/news/573251-taiwan-ex-president-to-visit-china/