Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan

Airbornewolf wrote:@ george1,

there is simply no solution to Afghanistan.
the opertunities we have had. we burned a long time ago.

The afghan culture itself makes it impossible.
they see eachother as constant competitors in their tribal system.

i really would have given you an good answer, but i do not know what the answer is to fix Afghanistan.

i think first of all Pakistan must be fixed and then Afghanistan

Sharif Hassan@MSharif1990·
6h
Two large bases & at least five outposts were abandoned today in Kahmard district — without a single shot being fired. Taliban captured the district soon after the govt forces left, a local official said. This is the first district that fell to the Taliban in #Bamyan since 2001.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E36gAzLVgAAeMfS?format=jpg&name=360x360

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E36gBTNUYAMt1dd?format=jpg&name=360x360

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E36gBlUVcAArY08?format=jpg&name=360x360

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E36gB2dVoAMWSFZ?format=jpg&name=360x360


Rahim لغماني@RahimLaghmani·
6h
#Taliban advances in Sayghan district of #Bamyan province without confronting much resistance.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1414629778540355591

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

I read the same this morning on twitter.

FrontalforceFlag of India@FrontalForce·
3h
Reports: After overrunning many areas in Afghanistan, 1000s of Taliban have entered North Waziristan in Pakistan & established their rule over there by asking Women to not leave their homes. Pak forces have already gone in hiding.


FrontalforceFlag of India@FrontalForce·
Thousands of Pak terrorists from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and other groups are currently fighting alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan in a clear violation of the 2020 peace deal signed by the Taliban and the US, according to reports from security agencies.
12:05 AM · Jul 12, 202

Most (not all) Taliban fighters are from the Pashtun/Pathan tribe. Pakistan's Pashtun dominated North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) was added to Pakistan by the British. However, it was decided that after 100 years the province will be shifted back to Afghanistan.

This is what Pakistan plans to prevent at all cost. Therefore, Pakistani jihadi groups that are mostly comprised of Punjabi Sunni Muslims are being sent to Afghanistan to fight against the Afghan government.

Oooops! But we need the Yankee $ said the Turk.

jhelb wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:i really would have given you an good answer, but i do not know what the answer is to fix Afghanistan.

What kind of shambolic training did N.A.T.O/U.S provide to Afghan military that at the slightest possibility of a Taliban onslaught thousands of soldiers from Afghanistan are fleeing to Tajikistan?

Somehow, after all the things i mentioned, and pointing out everything that goes wrong in afghanistan.
You are suprised this went wrong as well?.
and i agree, now the problem gets dumped on the lap of all the neighbouring countrys.

I think NATO's track record should give anyone a good picture how succesfull everything goes.
mention one country NATO touched and that ended up an shining beacon of democracy and welfare?.
I know, i can not come with one up either. They are all torn-up warzones.

We, meaning EU NATO members are used as auxillary's. Expendable, subordinates.
Just like the roman empire did to further its own foreign policy with the populations its conquered.
When you talk about NATO, you must see the U.S as its only true commander.
When we resist or give any critisism it propably costs you your millitary carreer.
At worst, they point their weapons at you when you get in their way and resist.
The U.S its own millitary sees their own men as expendable assets when it comes down to it.

And do not take personal offense of my following words, as i dont mean them like that.
It is easy to call NATO performance of training "shambolic" and quote me in that.
I am not the NATO-spokesman around here.

These performance issues of the ANA are not summed up in neat sentences.
I did the logistics, command and fighting. i did not do the training altough i was fammiliar with those programs.

I worked in NATO, but i think its pretty obvious me being here on this forum is an safe indication i do not share NATO's viewpoints and foreign policy.
I do not disrespect the men and women serving in NATO in general.

They are people too.
I spend a lot of time in bars drinking with various nations in my carreer.
some are quick to realise whatever NATO says is one big lie they are being told.
other's need some more experiences before they come to that conclusion.

Keep in mind, many of us that returned and wanted to tell their story where silenced by western media and tech giants like twitter and facebook/google.
And some people in NATO will just never learn.
At least they often have the same lack of mental capacity that matches their lack of perception of what is going on around them.

I did what i needed to do to out in Afghanistan. i will never appologise for that.

Going back to afghanistan's problems,
The afghan government is corrupt, the afghan have also no real airforce to speak off.
Because god forbid we gave Russia some money to give them proper aicraft that function there.
Its not like NATO did not had their own instructors from the czech republic, Slovakia etc. That operate MI's and Mig's themselves.
Americans vetoed that decision, forced afghanistan to use U.S aircraft as the primary airforce in the future.

They got like an handfull of MI-25's from India i believe. but the russian gear stops there.
They do not need western expensive helicopters and Aircraft.
they need the low-maintenance russian equipment that russia already manufactures good high-altitude engines for.

The russian contractors used their MI-8's, MI-26's and everything else with great succes there.
It was only thanks to the russian contractors moving all NATO gear by air, so we could focus forces elsewhere.


NATO's own aircraft fleet was insufficient to sustain the logistical demand of NATO itself.

Afghanistan's own logistical lines are non-extistent, how do you get supplies to them in prolonged engagements?.
they do not have the capacity to do so.

Also it has always been an common problem they run from engagements.
Both unity in their tribal system and the fact their own government was often caught not paying their own soldiers did not help either.
it was in my tours as well in 2006/2008/2009. it never changed for the better.

Like i mentioned before, Everyone that set foot out there beyond the gates knew this all would collapse the moment we left.
Thank the American arms industry and the politicians they bought with their blood-money for everything that happened then.
And will happen from now on.

Taliban surge in north Afghanistan sends thousands fleeing
By KATHY GANNON
today
CAMP ISTIQLAL, Afghanistan (AP) — Sakina, who is 11, maybe 12, walked with her family for 10 days after the Taliban seized her village in northern Afghanistan and burned down the local school.

They are now among around 50 families living in a makeshift camp on a rocky patch of land on the edge of the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif. They roast in plastic tents under scorching heat that reaches 44 degrees Celsius (110 degrees Fahrenheit) at midday. There are no trees, and the only bathroom for the entire camp is a tattered tent pitched over a foul-smelling hole.

As the Taliban surge through northern Afghanistan — a traditional stronghold of U.S.-allied warlords and an area dominated by the country’s ethnic minorities — thousands of families like Sakina’s are fleeing their homes, fearful of living under the insurgents’ rule.

In the last 15 days, Taliban advances have driven more than 5,600 families from their homes, most of them in the northern reaches of the country, according to the government’s Refugee and Repatriations Ministry.
In Camp Istiqlal, family after family, all from the Hazara ethnic minority, told of Taliban commanders using heavy-handed tactics as they overran their towns and villages — raising doubts among many over their persistent promises amid negotiations that they will not repeat their harsh rule of the past.

A February 2020 agreement the Taliban signed with the United States reportedly prevents the insurgents from capturing provincial capitals. Yet two — Kandahar in the south and Badghis in the north — are under siege. In the capital of Kabul, where many fear an eventual Taliban assault, a rocket defense system has been installed, the Ministry of Interior said over the weekend. The statement offered no detail about its origin or cost.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-middle-east-lifestyle-afghanistan-race-and-ethnicity-1ed5303beb691ccef61402c3f07918ca

Pakistani politician states in their Legislative Assembly that Taliban are exported to Afghanistan by Pakistan

https://twitter.com/mjdawar/status/1414662501183234054?s=20

It is against the Forum's policy to upload videos, images of dead bodies so I won't post that link. But in this tweet CNN's Natasha Bertrand has embedded a video that shows how surrendered Afghan soldiers were killed by Taliban

"Surrender, commandos surrender,' a Taliban fighter yells. Seconds later, a group of soldiers from the Afghan elite Special Forces Unit walk out, hands raised and ready to concede. Before they have a chance to speak, they are shot execution style." @amcoren
@CNN

Sujoy wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

I read the same this morning on twitter.

FrontalforceFlag of India@FrontalForce·
3h
Reports: After overrunning many areas in Afghanistan, 1000s of Taliban have entered North Waziristan in Pakistan & established their rule over there by asking Women to not leave their homes. Pak forces have already gone in hiding.


FrontalforceFlag of India@FrontalForce·
Thousands of Pak terrorists from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and other groups are currently fighting alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan in a clear violation of the 2020 peace deal signed by the Taliban and the US, according to reports from security agencies.
12:05 AM · Jul 12, 202

Most (not all) Taliban fighters are from the Pashtun/Pathan tribe. Pakistan's Pashtun dominated North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) was added to Pakistan by the British. However, it was decided that after 100 years the province will be shifted back to Afghanistan.

This is what Pakistan plans to prevent at all cost. Therefore, Pakistani jihadi groups that are mostly comprised of Punjabi Sunni Muslims are being sent to Afghanistan to fight against the Afghan government.

Indeed Pashtunization of the Taliban is what Pakistan fears the most

So the new Taliban suits it more

What doesn't suit it are Turkey's attempts to gain influence in the Uzbek north and stay in the country; as that could force the Taliban into Pashtunization

Sujoy wrote:
Most (not all) Taliban fighters are from the Pashtun/Pathan tribe. Pakistan's Pashtun dominated North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) was added to Pakistan by the British. However, it was decided that after 100 years the province will be shifted back to Afghanistan.

This is what Pakistan plans to prevent at all cost. Therefore, Pakistani jihadi groups that are mostly comprised of Punjabi Sunni Muslims are being sent to Afghanistan to fight against the Afghan government.

Τhis is the correct analysis of Afghanistan situation. The reality is more controversial and complicated if we consider the fact that Pashtuns (ethnic Afghans) are the dominant group in afghanistan (15 mil approx.) but in terms of numbers their population is bigger in Pakistan (43 mil.)...

The map of reduced Durrani empire in 1880.

Sergei Lavrov warns Taliban against grabbing power.

https://tass.com/politics/1293139

flamming_python wrote: Indeed Pashtunization of the Taliban is what Pakistan fears the most

So the new Taliban suits it more

Already, the Prime Minister of Pakistan is a Pashtun. Not much popular with his Pashtun brethen because they see him as a puppet of the Punjabis. But Imran Khan has the backing of the West.

In any case the Army calls the shots in Pakistan. And Punjabi Sunnis dominate the Army leadership.

Local media here in India is reporting that Afghan Government is asking for air support from Russia & India to stop the Taliban on their tracks.

flamming_python wrote:What doesn't suit it are Turkey's attempts to gain influence in the Uzbek north and stay in the country; as that could force the Taliban into Pashtunization

Pakistan is trying to get the Turks involved in Uzbekistan knowing fully well that Uzbekistan is a Russian ally. Therefore, Pakistan recons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks.

Sujoy wrote:Sergei Lavrov warns Taliban against grabbing power.  

https://tass.com/politics/1293139

I wonder if this means that Russia will give support to Afghan political forces??

Sujoy wrote:

flamming_python wrote: Indeed Pashtunization of the Taliban is what Pakistan fears the most

So the new Taliban suits it more

Already, the Prime Minister of Pakistan is a Pashtun. Not much popular with his Pashtun brethen because they see him as a puppet of the Punjabis. But Imran Khan has the backing of the West.

In any case the Army calls the shots in Pakistan. And Punjabi Sunnis dominate the Army leadership.

Local media here in India is reporting that Afghan Government is asking for air support from Russia & India to stop the Taliban on their tracks.

flamming_python wrote:What doesn't suit it are Turkey's attempts to gain influence in the Uzbek north and stay in the country; as that could force the Taliban into Pashtunization

Pakistan is trying to get the Turks involved in Uzbekistan knowing fully well that Uzbekistan is a Russian ally. Therefore, Pakistan recons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks.

Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

Sujoy wrote:
Pakistan is trying to get the Turks involved in Uzbekistan knowing fully well that Uzbekistan is a Russian ally. Therefore, Pakistan recons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks.

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

And I won't even get into the Chinese, the major sponsors of Pakistan, and not particularly fond of NATO or their Turkish agents; especially with the common border between Afghanistan and China's Uighur region.

Everyone will be better off with NATO booted out of the region for good

As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

Actually they are achieving this quite effectively for the last 40 years.

flamming_python wrote:

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

Pakistan wants Turkey to have a presence in Afghanistan. But Russia & China doesn't want that. China doesn't want Russia or India to be present in Afghanistan either.

China will send in its special ops troops to Afghanistan but will fall short of a major military deployment. That's why China needs Pakistan. Long story short, with NATO's departure, Pakistan and China will call the shots in Afghanistan.

flamming_python wrote:As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Russia is asking India to accept the new normal and accept the Taliban.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/taliban-like-hezbollah-not-isis-says-russia-urges-india-to-engage-with-it-for-afghan-peace/696058/

Sujoy wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

Actually they are achieving this quite effectively for the last 40 years.

flamming_python wrote:

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

Pakistan wants Turkey to have a presence in Afghanistan. But Russia & China doesn't want that. China doesn't want Russia or India to be present in Afghanistan either.

China will send in its special ops troops to Afghanistan but will fall short of a major military deployment. That's why China needs Pakistan. Long story short, with NATO's departure, Pakistan and China will call the shots in Afghanistan.

flamming_python wrote:As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Russia is asking India to accept the new normal and accept the Taliban.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/taliban-like-hezbollah-not-isis-says-russia-urges-india-to-engage-with-it-for-afghan-peace/696058/

So you are saying that Pakistan reckons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks??? & Pakistan and China will control Afghanistan, and all Russia can do is protect it's borders???

Cowboy's daughter wrote:So you are saying that  Pakistan reckons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks???   & Pakistan and China will control Afghanistan, and all Russia can do is protect it's borders???

Yes! Russia realizes
(a) it has limitations both military & financial; and
(b) it has commercial interest in both Afghanistan & Pakistan.

Consequently,  Russia has already started dialogue with the Taliban and is encouraging India to do the same. This will ensure Russia remains a minor player. Else, that space too will be occupied by China & Pakistan.

Sujoy showing his gross incompetence in knowledge again.

1) Russia's military and strength in the region is actually sufficient to hold off Taliban. Their forces are 7K strong at one base in Tajikistan. It would require a small contingent to protect the borders there. Economics has little to no dealing with this, as seen in Syria.
2) Russia has no real commercial interest in Afghanistan. You have no clue what you are even talking about. The entirety of negotiations has to do with protecting Uzbek and Tajik borders so the rats don't run to North Caucuses. Afghanistan has zero assets Russia wants and that was obvious during the 90's and even more so now. You may be mistaking it with Iraq. Pakistan has very little importance to Russia besides some token economic agreements.

The whole ordeal is to guarantee the North Caucuses won't get inflamed again with jihadists like in the 90's and early 2000's since most came from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Russia has zero interest in both invading or investing in Afghanistan. It's all China and Pakistan and Russians are OK with China's influence there cause they know China won't out up with terrorist nonsense. It's their one belt one road policy, not Russia's.

Taliban delegations went to Russia and Iran and they have deal with China. They all have common interests there. One is to throw US and NATO out of central Asia, Taliban to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan, majority of Afghanistanis support Talibans through the war and are not fighting fo pro-US regime in Kabul. Russia, China and Iran try to bring Talibans to agreements with other ethnicities in Afghanistan, to form a stable Afghanistan. Would they succede? They could as Talibans have great interest to be included in Chinese and also Russian project of silk roads, and one of them will go from China through Afghanistan to Iran and further through Iraq to Syria and Meditteranean sea. This road mean for Afghanistan trade, investments and money. Talibans are now looking for Afghanistan after war. On the other side Talibans will destroy Al Qaida in all its forms and names and ISIS in Afghanistan, which US brought from Iraq and Syria to fight against Talibans.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

Sujoy wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

Actually they are achieving this quite effectively for the last 40 years.

flamming_python wrote:

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

Pakistan wants Turkey to have a presence in Afghanistan. But Russia & China doesn't want that. China doesn't want Russia or India to be present in Afghanistan either.

China will send in its special ops troops to Afghanistan but will fall short of a major military deployment. That's why China needs Pakistan. Long story short, with NATO's departure, Pakistan and China will call the shots in Afghanistan.

flamming_python wrote:As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Russia is asking India to accept the new normal and accept the Taliban.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/taliban-like-hezbollah-not-isis-says-russia-urges-india-to-engage-with-it-for-afghan-peace/696058/

So you are saying that  Pakistan reckons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks???   & Pakistan and China will control Afghanistan, and all Russia can do is protect it's borders???

No, Russia, China and Iran have agreements for Silk roads projects. Pakistan will have benefits if included. Russia in Centreal Asia bring stability in region for safe trade. Now is question for India, if they want to be included in projects and have benefits or not.

medo wrote:Taliban delegations went to Russia and Iran and they have deal with China. They all have common interests there. One is to throw US and NATO out of central Asia, Taliban to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan, majority of Afghanistanis support Talibans through the war and are not fighting fo pro-US regime in Kabul. Russia, China and Iran try to bring Talibans to agreements with other ethnicities in Afghanistan, to form a stable Afghanistan. Would they succede? They could as Talibans have great interest to be included in Chinese and also Russian project of silk roads, and one of them will go from China through Afghanistan to Iran and further through Iraq to Syria and Meditteranean sea. This road mean for Afghanistan trade, investments and money. Talibans are now looking for Afghanistan after war. On the other side Talibans will destroy Al Qaida in all its forms and names and ISIS in Afghanistan, which US brought from Iraq and Syria to fight against Talibans.

Oh I now see, China is the main player in Afghanistan. Other than Taliban. Thank you for your posts!


The Ancient Silk Road.

https://www.amazing-iran.com/silk-road/

Russia has fought taliban for anyone who may doesnt know. Here is the final scene from the russian movie "Kandagar" which is based on real facts detailing the escape of a Russian crew from Afghanistan Taliban fighters on August 16, 1996.

Sujoy wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:So you are saying that  Pakistan reckons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks???   & Pakistan and China will control Afghanistan, and all Russia can do is protect it's borders???

Yes! Russia realizes
(a) it has limitations both military & financial; and
(b) it has commercial interest in both Afghanistan & Pakistan.

Consequently,  Russia has already started dialogue with the Taliban and is encouraging India to do the same. This will ensure Russia remains a minor player. Else, that space too will be occupied by China & Pakistan.

Russia's main interests in Afghanistan is to avoid that place being used as either a bridgehead against it (hence insisting on Turkey leaving, and supporting the Taliban in this demand), or as a base for training Islamist terrorists (hence the negotiations with the Taliban themselves)

What is India's interest in Afghanistan? Pretty much the same. If that place is not used to prepare and train terrorists for use against India, then why would India object?

Russia is a minor player but it does have important cards to play, the Tajik north, as well as its good relations with Uzbekistan. The ideal situation for Afghanistan is sort of like a neutral Switzerland between France, Italy and Germany.

If foreign interests in Afghanistan balance themselves out, and its in no-one's interests to rock the boat, then the place can start to develop as a transport corridor and the economy can grow.

flamming_python wrote:Russia's main interests in Afghanistan is to avoid that place being used as either a bridgehead against it (hence insisting on Turkey leaving, and supporting the Taliban in this demand), or as a base for training Islamist terrorists (hence the negotiations with the Taliban themselves)

Correct. Russia is unlikely to get involved militarily in Afghanistan. Doing that will pit Russia directly against Pakistan. I suspect after investing billions of $$ in Pakistan's oil & gas industry Russia will try to avoid a direct conflict with Pakistan.

In the 80s when the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan they had to fight the Pakistan military.

Maybe Russia won't have a problem with China's growing presence in Afghanistan either.

flamming_python wrote:What is India's interest in Afghanistan? Pretty much the same. If that place is not used to prepare and train terrorists for use against India, then why would India object?

India too is a minor player. Unwillingness to cross the border in 1999 during the Kargil conflict and wresting Pakistan occupied Kashmir means India still doesn't have a direct border with Afghanistan. Moreover, India won't be able to match China financially in Afghanistan either.

In any case India failed long time ago, to protect the lives of Hindus & Sikhs living in Afghanistan.