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    The looming world oil crisis

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    kvs
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    The looming world oil crisis

    Post  kvs on Sun Dec 06, 2015 4:17 am

    This graph from Chevron sums up what the world is facing in the next 15 years:



    The problem is that the discoveries of new deposits have collapsed since the 1960s.   There is no way that
    new supplies will cover both demand increase and production decline form the existing oil fields.  

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/def8d8f4-b532-11e4-b186-00144feab7de.html

    The current oil price is due to a world economic recession and not to some mythical glut.


    (the figure is from http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/12/05/crude-price-crash-could-drill-a-19-million-barrel.aspx)

    sepheronx
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    Re: The looming world oil crisis

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:33 pm

    I believe this is the ideal time to invest in building natgas energy plants all over Russia and Russia offering to countries like India and China.  Not only will it be cheaper for various countries over the other methods (besides coal) but also cleaner.  This would guarantee a demand for gas, it woulf be cheap in long run, and bragging rights would also be in place (possibly increasing Russias natgas export).

    zorobabel
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    Re: The looming world oil crisis

    Post  zorobabel on Fri Dec 11, 2015 8:48 pm

    kvs wrote:This graph from Chevron sums up what the world is facing in the next 15 years:



    The problem is that the discoveries of new deposits have collapsed since the 1960s.   There is no way that
    new supplies will cover both demand increase and production decline form the existing oil fields.  

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/def8d8f4-b532-11e4-b186-00144feab7de.html

    The current oil price is due to a world economic recession and not to some mythical glut.


    (the figure is from http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/12/05/crude-price-crash-could-drill-a-19-million-barrel.aspx)

    These projections of future oil demand are almost always wrong. See:


    For the last 15 years, there has consistently been more supply and less demand than expected. There won't be any pil crisis because present-day technology makes electric cars competitive economically at about $80 per barrel, and who knows where the technology will be in 5, 10, or 15 years. If there is a rapid spike in oil prices, in the developed world more and more will switch to electric, and demand will simply level off.

    kvs
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    Re: The looming world oil crisis

    Post  kvs on Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:34 am

    Do you seriously believe that there is some sort of technological transformation in transport going on? Where?
    Here in Canada I see zero evidence of it. Where are the masses of hybrids and electrics on the road? There
    aren't any and in the USA as well. Meanwhile in China there is a massive growth in plain gasoline vehicles for
    personal transport.

    Also, the CO2 emissions are tightly locked to world GDP growth since the industrial revolution at the latest.

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-GDP-Is-Linked-To-CO2-Emissions.html







    I don't see any evidence of any technological transition.

    kvs
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    Re: The looming world oil crisis

    Post  kvs on Thu Mar 17, 2016 4:46 am

    http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25372



    This graph is a good indication that US oil production will collapse in the near future. Fracking is not merely
    access to vast reserves of new oil. It is access to minor deposits that were ignored in the past since they cost
    too much to exploit.

    The Bakken deposit is already peaked in terms of production:



    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/02/03/eagle-ford-bakken-shale-production-on-the-decline/#33412101=0

    The Eagle Ford deposit is declining as well. There are simply no large oil fields that require fracking in the USA. But
    the mass media throws in the Green River oil shale deposit into the discussion as if these are the same thing. There is
    not a single oil shale production operation on the planet and none are being planned any time soon since they are
    extremely difficult to exploit (aside from digging up the shale, crushing it and burning it in furnaces as they do in Estonia).




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