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    West revives China fear mongering..

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    KomissarBojanchev
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    Russia to become chinese vassal?

    Post  KomissarBojanchev on Sat Dec 21, 2013 8:04 am

    On a futurist forum ...there's a number of Russians and other people claiming that Russia will never be powerful again, has no prospect of contributing much in the future and its only future will be china's lapdog as it becomes the worlds only superpower. Here are some quotes:

    "Russia will most likely become the Chinese ally, thus reviving the old "Sino-Soviet brotherhood" of 1950-s, only this time with reversed roles: China will be the "older brother" and Russia the "younger". Modernization of economy, declared by Putin, will only lead to a partial success. In general, Russia will never return as a superpower, though will still be one of the great powers."

    "I've personally talked to various scientists and people closely tied with the industry, as well as a Nobel Prize winner. Guess what? They all say that Russian industry is outdated as hell to the point that our technical universities on some specialities teach European standards instead of Russian ones because the knowledge they teach is completely inapplicable in Russia. Yes, I know that this is an appeal to authority, so if you want more proofs, then at least look at the AvtoVAZ statistics I posted slightly earlier."

    " Our economical growth is a temporary bubble - it's almost purely resource-based and oil will end soon. Also, Russia is already moving towards that - just look at the latest economic agreements between Russia and China. Basically, Russia agreed on colonial oil export laws with China."


    ""Russia also has a lot of natural gas, though, doesn't it?

    Also, is Putin genuinely stupid enough not to make any large efforts to diversify Russia's eocnomy before sh*t hits the fan there?"

    1. A lot doesn't mean infinite. Peak gas won't be reached later than in 2020-2025.

    2. Yes, he even went as far as claiming that the reserves of oil and gas in Russia will last forever, which is obviously silly. Our industry is in a far worse state than 25 years ago. As it's looking now, Russia has no future options at all except for being a Chinese colony. It's not like I'm against that option, though."

    "
    1. Both. http://en.wikipedia....#World_peak_gas
    In 2008, 50% of the federal budget came from oil and gas sales: http://ru.wikipedia.....81.D0.BE.D0.B2
    It's probably even a higher percentage now.
    About colonial oil trade agreements: http://www.itar-tass...konomika/841493
    Russia agreed to sell oil at a fixed price for 25 years.
    About industry: here's an example - http://www.adme.ru/l...oteryali-67871/ - AvtoVAZ exported 306 641 cars in 1988 (which was about 40% of all cars made by it in that year), but made only 330 000 in 2009. The same tragedy happened to most industries.
    And if our government won't mind Russia becoming a Chinese colony, nukes won't matter."



    On China versus Russia. Two countries I have studied a lot - from a distance. I really would not dream of arguing with somebody who actually lives in either of those countries and writes in fluent english about what is going on in their own country. I can tell you a picture that have I pasted together by listening to people who are fluent in Russian and once lived in that country. Russia has degenrated into a kleptocracy - or perhaps closer to the vocabulary actualy used, it is ruled by leaders of what in the U.S. we would call organized crime. Another revolution may very well hit that country soon, although it is very much a big and open question as to whether that revouliton will come peacefully, through the ballot box, or by some other as yet unkown means.
    I can see where Russians may very well be very envious of what is going on in China. China has shown a great deal of flexibility as of late and has shown evidence of good planning. They also seem to have a leadership that is very patient and very strategic in their thinking. Their influence is likely to grow steadily. They are likely to move with great deliberation and calculation. As I have pointed out before, journalistic sources I trust have expressed great skepticism about China. Particularly about the idea that the Chinese leadership is as stable and as self-confident of its future grip on that country as they project in public. They may very well be hanging in there by their fingernails. Of course, part of their dynamism seems to come from that very tension.



    These guys also continue  to rant how Russia is very jealous of china.  Do there claims have any merit or are they the typical Russian pessimism?



    Last edited by Vladimir79 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 6:26 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : No forum links allowed)

    GarryB
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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  GarryB on Sat Dec 21, 2013 9:37 am

    Better check the dates... it mentions putin but it sounds like crap from the 1990s.

    China still can't make a lot of things the Russians made in the 1980s like RD-33 engines. (RD-93 is an RD-33 with its gearbox moved).

    Russia does not need to become a world super power, but most likely will anyway... why do you think the west is so afraid of it for the last three centuries? (British fear of Russia predates communism BTW).


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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  collegeboy16 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 10:33 am

    hahahahhaha... good joke Razz 
    status quo between the 2 countries hasnt changed much really, and thats with west boosting the middle kingdom and russia collapsing plus coma for 10+ years, hell 2 world wars and a civil revo within a generation didnt impede it from being a superpower in the first place. Also, natural resources are bound to get even more valuable as more and more consumerist societies sprung around the globe. and russia has a hell of a lot more of it than anyone else Twisted Evil . not to mention technology, its only a matter of time before russians can supersede the japanese, koreans, and germans,etc. at their own game.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  navyfield on Sat Dec 21, 2013 10:35 am

    yes Russia could become to China , like what Canada is to the USA.
    a northern less populated neighbour with plenty of resourses and a foreign policy puppet.
    and no , r-33/93 or whatever wont change that although it might offer some comfort....

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  TR1 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 11:33 am

    No, Russia will never be China's puppet.

    Sorry to break the hearts of russophobes worldwide.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  navyfield on Sat Dec 21, 2013 12:14 pm

    yeah, im sure theyll ask you for opinion  Laughing 
    this is a real danger and a possibility.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  TR1 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 12:28 pm

    navyfield wrote:yeah, im sure theyll ask you for opinion  Laughing 
    this is a real danger and a possibility.

    Well they sure as hell won't as yours Smile .

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  collegeboy16 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 12:48 pm

    navyfield wrote:yes Russia could become to China , like what Canada is to the USA.
    a northern less populated neighbour with plenty of resourses and a foreign policy puppet.
    and no , r-33/93 or whatever wont change that although it might offer some comfort....
    hahaha... you know its free to dream, while youre at it you should have said middle kingdom will get siberia, russian far east, then artic oh and chini men will take hot russian chicks as their wives. Razz 

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  Vladimir79 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:19 pm

    Will Russia become China's Canada?  lol! 

    Right now, China is the Mexico of Russia's Far East. For Russia to come into a subjugated position to China, they would have to continue on course to rival the US. That just isn't going to happen. They have more debt to GDP than Greece and more in line with Japan. They have created an entire bubble economy that is funded by inflated land prices and negative interest on bank deposits. Some time soon, CCP is going to have to allow red lined industry to start defaulting and when that happens, the miracle of the Chinese economy will be over and no one will even bring up conversations like this.



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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  GarryB on Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:58 am

    Russia would only become a vassal of China if it followed all the instructions of the west... ie open up Russia to western oil and mining companies.. privatise everything so it can become foreign owned and controlled etc etc.


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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  As Sa'iqa on Sun Dec 22, 2013 1:57 pm

    Any country lying near a larger and richer neighboor is bound to become dependent. China has 10x larger population than Russia and a similiar economic growth rate. If they wanted, they could simply flood Russian Far East with immigrants and then organize a referendum to annex these territories.

    Sorry guys but China simply has ALL advantages Russia doesn't have - most of China has a hot, humid climate (suitable for extremely productive agriculture) which can support high population density, large and navigable rivers and long coastline with easy trade routes to India, Africa, Americas, Southeast Asia etc.

    Russia, on the other hand, is largely uninhabitable - out of all trade routes, only the one to Europe is viable. Russia is ridiculously large, but most of it has a harsh, subarctic climate, where heating is expensive and growing any crops is impossible. More people live in Bangladesh (which is roughly of the size of Belarus), than in all of Russia.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  TR1 on Sun Dec 22, 2013 2:25 pm

    The whole "Chinese immigrants annexing Siberia" thing is getting really old.

    I will bump this in 50 years when nothing of the sort happens.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  Regular on Sun Dec 22, 2013 5:04 pm

    TR1 wrote:The whole "Chinese immigrants annexing Siberia" thing is getting really old.

    I will bump this in 50 years when nothing of the sort happens.
    Well they could actually pull it off by encouraging people to emigrate to Siberia and then playing ethnic card. Sino-Soviet conflict was even more outlandish than that.. Soviet border guards were attacked by mobs of Chinese holding their passports who were brought by the party.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  Regular on Sun Dec 22, 2013 5:08 pm

    Russia a vassal state? I've heard this when Russia was on it's knees and China was flying up.. Nothing happened when Russia was at it's weakest and it will not happen in the near future...

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  collegeboy16 on Sun Dec 22, 2013 5:21 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:
    Sorry guys but China simply has ALL advantages Russia doesn't have - most of China has a hot, humid climate (suitable for extremely productive agriculture) which can support high population density, large and navigable rivers and long coastline with easy trade routes to India, Africa, Americas, Southeast Asia etc.
    come back to us in 30 years and you will see why russia has the better geographic situation?(is there such a term, but you get the gist).
    Also, not all of china is hot and humid, in fact the only hot and humid places are the coastal areas and river valleys, most of the north is cold desert and it only gets bigger every year, and rest are mountainous areas not to mention most of those rivers' waters come from mountains and these reservoirs too are getting depleted yearly. Oh and theres lots of pollution in the inhabited areas so theres that too. OTOH, russia has arctic, far east and siberia and its only a matter of time before they can be exploited to full use. These 3 are packed with mineral resources, arctic would eventually be linking east to west, siberia would provide farmland and far east would provide aquatic stuff.
    As Sa'iqa wrote:
    Russia, on the other hand, is largely uninhabitable - out of all trade routes, only the one to Europe is viable. Russia is ridiculously large, but most of it has a harsh, subarctic climate, where heating is expensive and growing any crops is impossible. More people live in Bangladesh (which is roughly of the size of Belarus), than in all of Russia.
    Aside from arctic trade route, warmer climate would provide lots of large navigable rivers along the length of russia, acting like railroad. again warmer climate would lessen subarctic regions, not that it covers most, more like half at best. also heating shouldnt be expensive since they have a lot of gas and food isnt a problem too since they actually have a lot of farmland, just not that fertile tho the size alone should make up for inefficiencies.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  As Sa'iqa on Sun Dec 22, 2013 5:47 pm

    The biggest problem of Russia is very low population density. In China more than a billion people live on the area that is well... one tenth of Russia? Some Chinese provinces have a population density of 700 people/km2, even subarctic Manchuria has 84 people/km2. In Russia a lot of areas have a whooping population density of 2 people per square km, sometimes even less. Look at USA vs Latin America, It has a smaller population than the US and they have flooded the US with immigrants and now they constitute 16% of the US population, with some states having more than 30% and the majority in some counties. If the number of immigrants was 2-3x larger, there would be no USA as we know today, so imagine what may happen to Russia if the Chinese start doing the same thing.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Dec 22, 2013 7:47 pm

    Of course this mechanism of taking a country by force of immigration might be used as a tool by the Chinese but it will not be to Russia. I let you guess where this weapon might be applied with ideal effectiveness.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  As Sa'iqa on Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:18 pm

    Countries with lenient immigration policy and low birth rates... Western Europe? Canada? Australia? US?

    I wouldn't be surprised, as the Chinese are very cunning and deceptive by nature... Especially the political elite. They may smile to you and flatter you at the same time plotting to stab you right in your back.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:30 pm

    You are clever boy and you see the big picture, so stop behaving like jackass.
    To the lenient immigration policy and low birth rates you also need to add the small indigenous population and you got it.

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  collegeboy16 on Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:43 pm

    haha sorry but russkies know how to play this dipsh!t game. to this date there are still thousands of russkies living in e.europe, providing russia a valid excuse to meddle there. Twisted Evil
    As Sa'iqa wrote:

    I wouldn't be surprised, as the Chinese are very cunning and deceptive by nature... Especially the political elite. They may smile to you and flatter you at the same time plotting to stab you right in your back.
    hehe, so is every politician everywhere

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  navyfield on Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:39 pm

    this years growth for china is 9%....
    woohooooooo

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  zg18 on Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:53 pm

    As Sa'iqa wrote:The biggest problem of Russia is very low population density. In China more than a billion people live on the area that is well... one tenth of Russia? Some Chinese provinces have a population density of 700 people/km2, even subarctic Manchuria has 84 people/km2. In Russia a lot of areas have a whooping population density of 2 people per square km, sometimes even less. Look at USA vs Latin America, It has a smaller population than the US and they have flooded the US with immigrants and now they constitute 16% of the US population, with some states having more than 30% and the majority in some counties. If the number of immigrants was 2-3x larger, there would be no USA as we know today, so imagine what may happen to Russia if the Chinese start doing the same thing.

    Yes , but most of Russia is inhospitable for larger population. There is something called a Polar zone.....

    Contrary to popular perceptions , Chinese have a lot of land , empty land.

    Do you really think Russians are stupid to let millions of Chinese into their territory?

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  type055 on Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:09 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:Will Russia become China's Canada?  lol! 

    Right now, China is the Mexico of Russia's Far East.  For Russia to come into a subjugated position to China, they would have to continue on course to rival the US.  That just isn't going to happen.  They have more debt to GDP than Greece and more in line with Japan.  They have created an entire bubble economy that is funded by inflated land prices and negative interest on bank deposits.  Some time soon, CCP is going to have to allow red lined industry to start defaulting and when that happens, the miracle of the Chinese economy will be over and no one will even bring up conversations like this.  


    hahaha you are funny Russia economy totally rely on gas and weapon investment. Russia's military industry is shrinking. If china has the other options, china will never buy russia weapons. next ten years china will make more advanced weapon than russia . just wait and see. russia will not be mexico to china. It will be cuba to China in nearly future

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  Mike E on Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:22 am

    type055 wrote:
    Vladimir79 wrote:Will Russia become China's Canada?  lol! 

    Right now, China is the Mexico of Russia's Far East.  For Russia to come into a subjugated position to China, they would have to continue on course to rival the US.  That just isn't going to happen.  They have more debt to GDP than Greece and more in line with Japan.  They have created an entire bubble economy that is funded by inflated land prices and negative interest on bank deposits.  Some time soon, CCP is going to have to allow red lined industry to start defaulting and when that happens, the miracle of the Chinese economy will be over and no one will even bring up conversations like this.  


    hahaha  you are funny Russia economy totally rely on gas and weapon  investment. Russia's military industry is shrinking. If china has the other options, china will never buy russia weapons. next ten years china will make more advanced weapon than russia . just wait and see.  russia will not be mexico to china. It will be cuba to China in nearly future
    Actually it doesn't rely on weapons and gas, at least it won't in the future. All great economies have a start, typically based off of gases or natural resources, Russia happens to have both! - They build nuclear plants, civilian aircraft, and even cars to name a few...

    It is the other way around... The budget keeps growing, and more and more projects are approved. Look at how they are designing/building three different classes of domestic subs. - Yasen, Borei, improved Lada never mind exports and one-offs. Then you have to consider the PAK-FA and the other Russian projects.

    Wrong... As of now and probably the near future, China's MIC is still in its infancy despite the number of weapons they manufacture. Don't forget that the Chinese forces use lots of licensed, reproduced, and even copied weapon systems. - Not to say they don't have indigenous projects... Another thing to keep in mind is the *quality* of their weapons. All attempts at a Chinese nuclear sub have ended in either failure or a just a bad sub, unlike Russia.

    That is a terrible comparison... I don't understand why people still compare the two countries, they do collaborate after all!

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    Re: West revives China fear mongering..

    Post  sepheronx on Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:40 am

    type055 wrote:
    Vladimir79 wrote:Will Russia become China's Canada?  lol! 

    Right now, China is the Mexico of Russia's Far East.  For Russia to come into a subjugated position to China, they would have to continue on course to rival the US.  That just isn't going to happen.  They have more debt to GDP than Greece and more in line with Japan.  They have created an entire bubble economy that is funded by inflated land prices and negative interest on bank deposits.  Some time soon, CCP is going to have to allow red lined industry to start defaulting and when that happens, the miracle of the Chinese economy will be over and no one will even bring up conversations like this.  


    hahaha  you are funny Russia economy totally rely on gas and weapon  investment. Russia's military industry is shrinking. If china has the other options, china will never buy russia weapons. next ten years china will make more advanced weapon than russia . just wait and see.  russia will not be mexico to china. It will be cuba to China in nearly future

    Yeah right.  Russian military industry shrinking (sales for military products from Russia is increasing every year, making Russia second in the world for sales of military industrial equipment)? What figures do you have to back that claim up?  Military Industrial complex account for 25% of Russia's Industrial strength.  Russia is an energy Superpower and well, Energy is what is needed for any nation to become a major power, hence why China and India (mostly China atm) is most interested in Russian energy.  Add to that, Russian market is huge and is always in demand for new goods, that Chinese businesses are investing billions into its infrastructure and manufacturing, as that would give China an increased edge over a major market.  That is about it.  As well, since Chinese market may go bust and the investments into Ghost Cities are a bubble waiting to burst, China is looking to Russia for where to put its investments and development so that there will be an actual return.

    Now add Brazil and India to the mix, and massive potential for Russia to sell its goods to and as well, its resources to, and China will just be another part of the fraction.  If Russia decides to simply start investing in their allied nations like Cuba, Venezuela, Tajikistan, etc in order make them richer and more developed, there would be a higher demand for Russian goods.  A good alternative to what China produces in heavy industrial equipment.

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