"Russia will most likely become the Chinese ally, thus reviving the old "Sino-Soviet brotherhood" of 1950-s, only this time with reversed roles: China will be the "older brother" and Russia the "younger". Modernization of economy, declared by Putin, will only lead to a partial success. In general, Russia will never return as a superpower, though will still be one of the great powers."
"I've personally talked to various scientists and people closely tied with the industry, as well as a Nobel Prize winner. Guess what? They all say that Russian industry is outdated as hell to the point that our technical universities on some specialities teach European standards instead of Russian ones because the knowledge they teach is completely inapplicable in Russia. Yes, I know that this is an appeal to authority, so if you want more proofs, then at least look at the AvtoVAZ statistics I posted slightly earlier."
" Our economical growth is a temporary bubble - it's almost purely resource-based and oil will end soon. Also, Russia is already moving towards that - just look at the latest economic agreements between Russia and China. Basically, Russia agreed on colonial oil export laws with China."
""Russia also has a lot of natural gas, though, doesn't it?
Also, is Putin genuinely stupid enough not to make any large efforts to diversify Russia's eocnomy before sh*t hits the fan there?"
1. A lot doesn't mean infinite. Peak gas won't be reached later than in 2020-2025.
2. Yes, he even went as far as claiming that the reserves of oil and gas in Russia will last forever, which is obviously silly. Our industry is in a far worse state than 25 years ago. As it's looking now, Russia has no future options at all except for being a Chinese colony. It's not like I'm against that option, though."
1. Both. http://en.wikipedia....#World_peak_gas
In 2008, 50% of the federal budget came from oil and gas sales: http://ru.wikipedia.....81.D0.BE.D0.B2
It's probably even a higher percentage now.
About colonial oil trade agreements: http://www.itar-tass...konomika/841493
Russia agreed to sell oil at a fixed price for 25 years.
About industry: here's an example - http://www.adme.ru/l...oteryali-67871/ - AvtoVAZ exported 306 641 cars in 1988 (which was about 40% of all cars made by it in that year), but made only 330 000 in 2009. The same tragedy happened to most industries.
And if our government won't mind Russia becoming a Chinese colony, nukes won't matter."
On China versus Russia. Two countries I have studied a lot - from a distance. I really would not dream of arguing with somebody who actually lives in either of those countries and writes in fluent english about what is going on in their own country. I can tell you a picture that have I pasted together by listening to people who are fluent in Russian and once lived in that country. Russia has degenrated into a kleptocracy - or perhaps closer to the vocabulary actualy used, it is ruled by leaders of what in the U.S. we would call organized crime. Another revolution may very well hit that country soon, although it is very much a big and open question as to whether that revouliton will come peacefully, through the ballot box, or by some other as yet unkown means.
I can see where Russians may very well be very envious of what is going on in China. China has shown a great deal of flexibility as of late and has shown evidence of good planning. They also seem to have a leadership that is very patient and very strategic in their thinking. Their influence is likely to grow steadily. They are likely to move with great deliberation and calculation. As I have pointed out before, journalistic sources I trust have expressed great skepticism about China. Particularly about the idea that the Chinese leadership is as stable and as self-confident of its future grip on that country as they project in public. They may very well be hanging in there by their fingernails. Of course, part of their dynamism seems to come from that very tension.
These guys also continue to rant how Russia is very jealous of china. Do there claims have any merit or are they the typical Russian pessimism?
Last edited by Vladimir79 on Sat Dec 21, 2013 7:26 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : No forum links allowed)