Russia-Belarus Relationship

Ishchenko described what will begin if the Belarusian elite overthrows Lukashenko

02.21.2020

The overthrow of Alexander Lukashenko from the post of president of Belarus means the beginning of a conflict within the Belarusian nomenclature. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru

“Now Lukashenko is holding them back. It is for them a favorite, or hated, but the assemblage point. If he is removed from this scheme, then all the various elite groups (which united in love or hatred of Lukashenko) will begin to engage in the struggle for power, ”the expert explained.
Given the fact that nationalists in Belarus have much less support than in Ukraine, the political scientist argues, they will have to build a much tougher regime, since they can only retain power by force and intimidation.
And since the republic’s elites will not be united, Ishchenko pointed out, some part of it that will be removed from power will rely on anti-nationalist forces (including pro-Russian), which will lead to a civil war.
Therefore, even the Belarusian elite should stop blackmailing Russia with their departure to the West, and accept the very good conditions of Moscow, since no one can offer them better, the expert concluded.

Ishchenko explained what Russia would face if Belarus finally left for the West

02/22/2020, 07:50



The hypothetical departure of Belarus towards the West will inevitably lead to the collapse of all Belarusian statehood, which Russia will have to restore. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru

“Russia will face the same problem of what to do with these territories later: how to equip them, how to solve the problem of restoring normal civilized life there,” the expert pointed out.
In any case, the political scientist noted, the departure of Belarus towards the West will not change anything for Russia in terms of geopolitics, since it is already cut off from Western Europe by the unfriendly Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine.
“From the Baltic to the Black Sea, everything is closed. This is also why Russia built bypass gas pipelines along the seabed in order not to deal with unfriendly regimes, ”Ischenko explained.
At the same time, in his opinion, it is unlikely that the Belarusian leadership will openly declare their departure to the West, since they want to blame President Alexander Lukashenko for possible costs , as the Ukrainian elite put them on Viktor Yanukovych.

miketheterrible wrote:https://m.lenta.ru/articles/2019/02/05/lukabestally/amp/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Apparently Belarus seeks to have NATO exercises in Belarus and stuff like that.

Time to cut off Lukashenko. Let him drown.

miketheterrible wrote:Yet they are pulling this. As I said, time to make ultimatums back at Lukashenko.  Tell him if he doesn't want to comply, best he start packing.

The west would be happy to give Belarus some money in exchange for troop placement.

Firebird wrote:Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character. I can't help but feel there is a similarity with Turdogan in Turkey. I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.

Belarus has no gas debts to Russia - PM

Tsavo Lion wrote:Only in ur dreams! Don't worry, Russia won't allow it as an "allied state" & the main member of the CSTO.

(...) Lukashenko has no hopes for foreign investors. Negotiations with the IMF have failed. The only hope is for Russia , which for some reason does not link its comprehensive charity with its own political, economic and other interests. That is, Moscow's policy is directly opposite to the established and practically proven practice of Beijing and Washington, the EU countries and international financial organizations.

Judging by the regular demarches of friends and partners striving to demonstrate a “turn to the West”, having barely received Russian financial and other assistance, the Russian strategy in the post-Soviet space (about the very existence of which there is heated debate) should be recognized as vicious and urgently corrected. Until this is done, the Kremlin will receive groundless accusations of interfering in the Belarusian elections - up to ridiculous accusations of intervention by the hands of “ Wagnerists ”, “ officers of the Russian GRU ” and mythical terrorist groups, which, according to Lukashenko, are still then "h Erez Russia sometimes penetrate , we have no boundaries."

It is not enough to state the presence of the ball on the Minsk field when discussing the prospects for the implementation of the agreement signed in 1999 on the creation of the Union State, as Russian Ambassador to Belarus Dmitry Mezentsev recently did on a little-known TV channel . For $ 130 billion of Russian assistance to Belarus, it is time to demand at least some movement not only on the track of deepening economic integration, but also political and humanitarian.

Instead, the government of the Russian Federation credits the money of Russian taxpayers to the budget of a formally other state, provides it with all kinds of preferences - from trading in its market to catching Russian fish, retroactively writes off debt obligations - as in the case of a revision of the loan agreement on BelNPP, underestimates the price of the subsoil oil, gas and so on. Such one-sided constant concessions and gifts at the expense of the nation of Russia are simply irrational.

Now the political leadership of Russia is trying to find its interest in the situation created by Lukashenka, when in Belarus there is a choice between him and the western kept women broadcasting on behalf of the masses, outraged by the falsification of the presidential elections. Practice shows that bribery of already formed elites is ineffective. Therefore, it will be possible to say goodbye to money already invested in Belarus, suddenly and irrevocably - just like with money invested in Ukraine, which are now working for Russia's enemies.

There is only one way out of the situation: to participate in Belarusian politics in the same way as British, Polish, American, German and other partners do. To participate, like them, in the formation of self-oriented elites, to protect them and support them in every possible way. For $ 5-6 billion a year, you can and should completely control the situation in Belarus, ensuring the protection of Russian investments, which also work in the interests of the people of Belarus.

Russia needs to complete the revision of allied relations begun by Mikhail Babich , formulate its interest and show it in a clear strategy. It's time to stop deceiving yourself and others with “Zabrat” demagogy and fake reports about some kind of joint foreign policy strategy of the objectively failed Union State, the allegedly practical benefits of a “parliamentary assembly” that is not decisive and unnecessary to anyone , and so on. In the era of Realpolitik, playing by different rules is a losing game.

That is, Moscow's policy is directly opposite to the established and practically proven practice of Beijing and Washington, the EU countries and international financial organizations.

Rostislav Ishchenko wrote:Russia, in turn, is not going to give out free cakes. Even traditional allies and consumers of Russian charity have already felt this. Cooperation in the Kremlin’s understanding should be mutually beneficial, or in exchange for economic preferences, the recipient company should provide support for some foreign policy initiatives and/or projects of Russia.

If Russia continues to interact with the limitrophes in this format, then all of them (some earlier and some later) will exhaust the internal resource potential and the very survival of their peoples will become possible only if they join Russia. I emphasise: Russia, not the USSR-2. This means that the one being integrated accepts all the rules prescribed by the integrator, up to the possibility of changing the administrative division of the integrated territory. In this format, Russia attaches not republics, but a conglomerate of separate regions, which, neither together, nor even separately, can claim to participate in the management of the entire country except through the mechanism of parliamentary and presidential elections.

But the moment when the former republics will agree to everything is still far away. All of us, the whole world, are still waiting for too big shocks and unforeseen twists of fate to deal with such a question today. Moreover, practice and experience already today show that some ethnocracies will prefer to kill their countries and peoples, but will never turn their face to Russia and will not try to return to it.

For today, we can only state with relief that the USSR-2 project is not feasible at this stage, since it does not suit the limitrophes that broke away from Russia. It is too international in spirit for their nationalism. However, it should be borne in mind that this project is still too popular in Russia. This popularity can be used by our enemies to organise another attempt to destroy Russia, this time under the pretext of recreating the USSR. When the deceived people realise that the USSR-2 will not exist, it may turn out that Russia is no longer there.

It is mortally dangerous for Russia to lose Belarus, Lukashenko claims

MINSK, February 11. /TASS/. Losing Belarus would be mortally dangerous for Russia, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday.

He underscored that the republic will continue to reinforce its security sector in accordance with new threats and challenges, stating that the Belarusian military doctrine is defensive-only and that the country is able to defend itself using much less resources.

"I also confirm it with aid of our Russia, because to lose Belarus would be mortally dangerous for Russia," Lukashenko said at the Nationwide Belarusian People’s Assembly Thursday.

"I expect Belarus to remain an absolute priority for Russia, as well. I am certain that Russia will honestly understand our aspiration to cooperate with other countries as well," the President said. "Meanwhile, Russia has been and will be our main economic partner and strategic ally."

Earlier Thursday, Lukashenko claimed that the unity of Russia and Belarus is a precondition for a peaceful and stable future of the region.