The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

etaepsilonk wrote:To airbornewolf:
"this whole ordeal is politics being fought at the highest level trough proxy's. witch the West initiated after Ukraine government did not want to join the E.U"

Oh yeah, this is all just ze evil west CIA plot, and totally has nothing to do with those 22 years of almost continuous downhill journey of Ukraine's economy, and, pretty much, the country as a whole   

im old and wise enough to not go for this kind of immature response.

You guys are practically saying the same thing and argueing

Airbornewolf wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:To airbornewolf:
"this whole ordeal is politics being fought at the highest level trough proxy's. witch the West initiated after Ukraine government did not want to join the E.U"

Oh yeah, this is all just ze evil west CIA plot, and totally has nothing to do with those 22 years of almost continuous downhill journey of Ukraine's economy, and, pretty much, the country as a whole   

im old and wise enough to not go for this kind of immature response.

All I'm saying is, that Ukraine would have seen anti-Janukovich protests, regardless if that damn treaty would be signed or not.
I'm not denying, that foreign organisations have supported the Maidan, but initiated it? No way.


Saying that Ukrainian protests is a CIA conspiracy is like saying, that Greek protests have been a GRU conspiracy. It's just stupid.

They funded the internal discord

Russian Patriot wrote:They funded the internal discord

And most likely orchestrated it as well. Well at least tried it. Ukraine is a loose cannon now.
Still they are dependent on Russia so no matter who is in power Russia will have them by the balls. I feel pity for all Ukrainians for what is coming next in couple years.

So, options people, options!

What is to be done? How should Russia react to the current situation?

Once again we face the threat of an outbreak of war on our borders; this time thankfully our troops are not facing an armed threat directly, but the situation is dire nonetheless and it's possible that instability and banditry can make their way into Sevastopol, into allied Belarus, or even into Russian territory proper.

And then there is the political question in regards to the Eastern part of the Ukraine which has remained calm so far, to the Crimea in particular where some sort of political chaos seems to be developing amidst calls for separatism and so on.

Crimea will just referendum to join Russia.

Gentlemen, the way I see it, the Russian military should be prepared for military threats in the Crimean peninsula.
If the conflict fails to be contained, and the Russian military ends up involved as the result of some political decision or the other; then the area of operation will widen.

Yes it may sound absurd on the face of it; but just look at how quickly the situation has escalated over the last 6-7 days.
If it carries on with this pace of escalation, we could be looking at war in no time. It would be prudent to be prepared for the eventuality ahead of time.

Not that I wanna play general here, but information is our ally.
Main threats I would classify, in order of threat level:

a). Crowds, potentially forming into aggressive mobs. Would be a great variance in their threat-level & behavior but the common element would be that they are formed of pro-Maidan activists and may be willing to trespass in restricted zones, defy police and military orders, or occupy the property of the Russian MoD.
In terms of composition they will be a mix of passive protestors, including women and teenagers, most likely together with a smaller cadre of better protected/prepared and potentially aggressive individuals & provocateurs; armed predominantly with shields, hand-to-hand weapons, molotov cocktails, perhaps some crude explosives. There is the possibility of snipers mixing in and camouflaging themselves among such groups.

b). Irregulars; mostly armed with hand-to-hand weapons, molotov cocktails, explosives along with traumatic firearms, air rifles, and of course real firearms; most likely restricted to small-caliber rifles, shotguns, handguns although assault rifles and grenades should not be ruled out. Most won't equipped with body armour but certainly helmets, some level of protection that might be effective against fragments, etc... would be fairly standard.
In contrast to threat a), they will composed purely of 'fighters', and will behave with tactical awareness, not as a group of protestors; their formations will be smaller, more spread out. Many would have served in the military previously or have some level of paramilitary training; albeit not necessarily for firefights.

c). Defected units and individuals, of the Ukrainian Armed forces and Internal forces; potentially armed with anything but most likely mostly the lighter hardware that has been seen employed over the past few months - assault rifles, SVDs, concussion grenades, riot & body armour, BTRs, water cannons, etc... The chances that the more heavily armed military units will defect wholesale in the current climate is much smaller as they are mostly confined to base.
Military or Internal Forces servicemen, who have defected to the side of the 'opposition'. If defected individually or piecemeal, they may well merge into the general mass of protestors and would not be classed as a separate threat, however if they have defected as units, they may well retain their cohesion and organisation; not to mention equipment and capabilities. Such formations can then be employed by the opposition leadership for attaining various objectives up to and including assaults on facilities & objects, infiltration, ambushes and so on.

d). Regular units of the Ukrainian Armed forces. By far the greatest danger; can range from air-assault units to armour formations; equipped with everything in between.
Such a threat could become an eventuality, if the opposition successfully overthrows the current government, and installs a new one that the Ukrainian military will recognize and subordinate themselves too. If ultra-nationalist forces take power this way, then it can not be ruled out that they will seek to employ military force against those Russian military units and facilities that are stationed on the territory of the Ukraine.

Flamming python delivers.

I guess I should add a specific threat too - Crimean Tatars; would take the form of irregulars most likely. Only more dangerous, as they know the land well and live there. They could act in co-ordination with Maidan forces in the Crimean peninsula, or they can be galvanised into taking action independently, depending on the political decisions of Crimean authorities.

UK military is in shit shape.

Not concerned about them at all.

Ukraine president, opposition sign EU-brokered agreement on ending crisis
Link

Hmmm... i wonder what the implications of this agreement will be?   

early elections

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/ukraine/2014/ukraine-140220-vor02.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e1043%2edd0ao031i6%2eyde

So we will be mediator

Yanukovich capitulate to West and opposition. I wonder what steps will now make in eastern Ukraine and Crimea? This deal reached now will be devastating for eastern part and their economy. On the other hand there will be no Russian money now, so how long could Ukraine finance itself and obligations till bankruptcy?

medo wrote:Yanukovich capitulate to West and opposition. I wonder what steps will now make in eastern Ukraine and Crimea? This deal reached now will be devastating for eastern part and their economy. On the other hand there will be no Russian money now, so how long could Ukraine finance itself and obligations till bankruptcy?

Ukraine and its shortage of money is now EU problem and Im happy with that outcome too. Elections are scheduled by the end of this year and the real deal is what will Crimea do?

Crimea will join Russia it has no other viable option.

Crimea is pointless without the rest of the Eastern Ukraine. Just another enclave in the middle of nowhere like Kaliningrad or Pridnestrovie. Even if they link it to the mainland with a new bridge over the Kerch straight then fine, but one can probably forget about the rest of the Ukraine including the Eastern regions; they will be swamped with the Western nazis. If you take it then you will give up Odessa, Nikolayev, Dnerpetrovsk, Khakovsk, Maliopol, Donetsk, Mariupol, Kherson, Zaporozhia, Kirovograd, etc..
The Ukraine needs the Crimea to balance them out, and the Eastern Ukrainian regions need the Crimea to bolster their collective bargaining power/autonomy.

But see Crimea is the only way of sea trade for ukraine.

Russian Patriot wrote:But see Crimea is the only way of sea trade for ukraine.

No it isn't, the Ukraine also has Nikolayev, Odessa, Mariupol - all of them large ports.

Viktor wrote:Ukraine and its shortage of money is now EU problem and Im happy with that outcome too. Elections are scheduled by the end of this year and the real deal is what will Crimea do?

Ukrainian economy is in shambles , and problem is more than just lack of money , it`s structural so it means you can`t simply give few billion € here and there to fix problems , it`s simply financial black hole.

I simply don`t see anyone capable to pull out the reforms. Russia could do it with Eastern Ukraine and do Belarus , West and Kiev should be left on EU care.

zg18 wrote:

Viktor wrote:Ukraine and its shortage of money is now EU problem and Im happy with that outcome too. Elections are scheduled by the end of this year and the real deal is what will Crimea do?

Ukrainian economy is in shambles , and problem is more than just lack of money , it`s structural so it means you can`t simply give few billion € here and there to fix problems , it`s simply financial black hole.

I simply don`t see anyone capable to pull out the reforms. Russia could do it with Eastern Ukraine and do Belarus , West and Kiev should be left on EU care.

Whatever.

Russia should cut-off all money and loans, cancel the discount on gas prices too. It's not even clear who's in charge of the damn place right now.
Russian banks hold huge amounts of Ukrainian securities and debts.
That puts them in considerable danger. They should steadily start to work on this problem - careful not to cause an immediate default; but these bonds are toxic now and have to disposed of.

Eastern Ukraine & Crimea should take a page from the Western Ukrainian book; no need for seperatism - but simply refuse any directives from the new central government in Kiev/whoever will force their way into power, that attempt to restrict them from building their own economic and political ties with Russia seperate from the federal government.

If these regions show that they have some balls, then we can discuss helping, developing these regions and their industries, finances, etc...
Maybe they can introduce the rouble onto their territory and start using it in regional trade, to save themselves from the coming financial shitstorm of biblical proportions.
Crimea and it's 'energy' would be vital to any such East Ukrainian regional coalition.

Russia should cut-off all money and loans, cancel the discount on gas prices too. It's not even clear who's in charge of the damn place right now.

I see you have been converted to my position Python.

Yeah, guess so

Not like there's any other choice now anyhow

What's more, the Ukraine and it's coming economic meltdown is threatening to have serious repercussions on Russia and its economy too.
Like Chernobyl.

The prudent policy was to prop it up and try and salvage it, but that's no longer an option.

The Ukrainian people's own mindlessness and naivety has led them to this abyss. And Russophobia.
Honestly, I guess I just expected more.

Unlike Russia has ties to the Ukraine, I have no ties to the Ukraine so as far as I am concerned it is disappointing that the whole of the Ukraine has been forced into the direction of the EU by a few thousand protesters and the western media, but I think that the Ukraine needs Russia rather more than Russia needs the Ukraine.

All the western news agencies are claiming victory and suggesting that this was all a plot by Putin to recreate a soviet union based in Moscow under his control.

They claim this protest has foiled his ambitions, but of course really the last thing the Russian economy needs is to be dragging the Ukraine out of poverty at the same time as doing the same for itself... talk about an albatross around your neck.

Now the Ukraine is the EUs problem... considering the state of the EU I really wonder if they have actually thought this through?

I will find the protests in 3 years time amusing... it will be protests at all the cuts the government will have to make to get money from Brussels... and of course open up their economy to all the powerful western companies who will roll in and buy everything of value up for peanuts and strip assets and then leave.

I would hope that the Ukrainian people would see what was coming and make efforts to prevent it, or at least realise who they should be blaming, but why bother think about anything now when they can blame Russia for not supporting their choice of the EU as bed buddy and offer cheap energy and lots of investment in their economy to make it float... obviously it will all be Russias fault.