Economy of India

India, Russia ink deal for new nuclear power generation units, 12.26.2023.

The two governments have signed an agreement for additional units for the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant.

During an address in Moscow on Tuesday, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced a new agreement between India and Russia for the construction of additional units at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) in Tamil Nadu. 

The existing joint project includes operational units 1 and 2 with a capacity of 1000 MW each, while the four remaining units of the same capacity are currently under construction. They are set to be completed by 2027, resulting in a total capacity of 6000 MW.

"Today, we signed some important agreements pertaining to future units of the Kudankulam Nuclear Project," the minister said. In his speech, he called Russia a “special partner” in several domains, such as defense, nuclear power, and space. “Collaborations are done [...] with countries with which you have a high degree of trust,” he added.

Additionally, Jaishankar disclosed that face-to-face discussions on the free trade agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Zone are set to commence early next year.

Earlier on Tuesday, Jaishankar, along with Russia’s deputy prime minister and minister of industry and trade, Denis Manturov, co-chaired the Intergovernmental Russian-Indian Commission on Trade and Economic, Scientific, Technical, and Cultural Cooperation. These discussions took place at the ‘Russia’ exposition, a prominent exhibition at Moscow’s VDNKH complex.

The two officials covered various aspects of cooperation, including trade, investment, finance, banking, transport logistics, energy, and food security. They also emphasized advancing priority projects in industrial cooperation, according to a report by TASS news agency.

“In recent years, despite the challenges faced by our countries, trade and economic ties have been rapidly developing. There is no doubt that the Russian-Indian trade turnover by the end of this year will exceed a significant milestone of $50 billion and set a new historical maximum,” noted Denis Manturov.

Jaishankar has also explored several exhibition pavilions, including the ‘ATOM’ pavilion, which showcases Russia’s achievements in the development of the nuclear industry.

https://www.rt.com/india/589716-india-russia-ink-deal-kudankulam-plant/

Rupee payments boosting India’s exports to Russia – exporting group, 02.01.2024.

New Delhi shipped engineering goods worth over $1 billion to Moscow last year, according to an Indian trade council.

India’s exports of engineering goods to Russia more than doubled to over $1 billion in the first nine months of last year thanks in part to payments settled in rupees, the news outlet Mint reported on Wednesday, citing a top exporting group.

Deliveries of machinery, auto parts, electrical equipment, and other engineering goods to Russia surged by 130% and totaled $1.03 billion in the period between April and December 2023, according to the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India (EEPC).

Exports of such goods to Russia are expected to reach $1.5 billion by the end of March, said the EEPC, an organization comprising over 12,000 small exporters of engineering goods.

“There is a manifold increase in the export of engineering goods to Russia and demand of our engineering products in other countries is rising,” EEPC Chairman Arun Garodia told the outlet in an interview after the two countries launched a payment mechanism to settle trade in the national currencies.

India and Russia have been working on alternative methods for carrying out transactions after the latter was removed from the SWIFT financial messaging system.

Meanwhile, sanctions have prompted Russia to scrap Western currencies in trade with many of its partners. Thus far, Moscow has signed deals with a number of countries, including China, Iran and India, to trade in local currencies instead of the dollar.

Garodia expects trade in rupees to become more common in the coming years as several countries, including some in Africa, have expressed an interest in establishing payment mechanisms using the Indian currency.

“Exporters are happy that they are receiving payments in rupees for exports to Russia,” he added.

Moscow and New Delhi have maintained close and friendly trade and defense relations for decades.

Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry recently estimated that bilateral trade will exceed the “significant” milestone of $50 billion by the end of this year.

https://www.rt.com/india/591657-india-russia-rupee-trade/

India to make own tank engines as Germany delays deliveries – media, 02.14.2024.

New Delhi could produce more parts for its Arjun Mark 1 model after manufacturers in the EU country announced a four-year wait.

India is planning to develop its own engines for its Arjun Mark 1 tanks, after German manufacturers anticipated a minimum four-year wait before production resumes, national media outlets reported on Tuesday.

New Delhi is considering accelerating its ongoing indigenous engine development project, sources told India Today TV. The plan involves initially equipping several tanks with German engines, before a transition to the local model. The efforts underscore India’s commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities through indigenous innovation.

According to the Economic Times, the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has started work on a domestic alternative, expected to be ready for production within three years. The DATRAN 1500 engine, initially designed for the Futuristic Main Battle Tank program, is undergoing modifications to integrate into the new Arjun Tanks, the report noted. The new engine underwent its first round of testing for the future tank program last year.

India ordered 118 Arjun Mark 1-A Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), known colloquially as ‘Hunter Killers’ and valued at 75.2 billion rupees ($900 million), in 2021. The tanks are manufactured by the state-owned Heavy Vehicles Factory in Avadi, Chennai. The Arjun Mark 1-A represents a leap forward in technology, boasting new features and a higher indigenous component compared to its predecessor, the Mark-1. The tank is armed with a formidable 120mm rifled gun and fortified with Kanchan armor.

The Indian Army currently relies primarily on Russian tanks, including around 1,900 license-built T-72M1s and around 1,500 T-90Ss, third-generation Russian main battle tanks developed to replace the T-72, according to Indian media. The Arjun tank finds itself in an intermediate position. While its turret and overall silhouette resemble those of the T90S, its indigenously developed Kanchan explosive reactive armor (ERA) mirrors heavier Western models, resulting in a hybrid with constrained operational capability. Last year, the Indian Army also invited proposals from private defense industry players and state-owned companies for the overhaul and extension of T-72 main battle tanks, which are more than four decades old.

https://www.rt.com/india/592432-india-arjun-mark1-tank-delay/

Indian exporters see ‘tremendous’ potential in Russia – industry chief, 02.14.2024.

Local currency settlements will significantly benefit businesses trading with Moscow, Ajay Sahai of the exports federation told RT.

New Delhi can significantly increase exports to Russia and reduce the existing trade deficit by using payment mechanisms in local currencies, the head of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has told RT. Ajay Sahai, the director general and CEO of the body, predicted that bilateral trade could reach $65 billion in 2024, after exceeding an unprecedented $50 billion last year.

Imports from Russia are expected to account for just over $60 billion of the total figure, while exports from India are likely to exceed $4.5 billion. Last year, India exported $4 billion worth of goods to Russia, largely driven by engineering products, according to data from the Indian Commerce Ministry. The trade deficit has been widening largely due to imports of discounted Russian oil by India amid Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

“The good thing is that many of the Indian companies are looking to Russia in a big way. A lot of small and medium companies have also shown interest in their trade with Russia,” Sahai said.

With many Western companies moving out of Russia, he added, there is a significant opportunity for India to further increase its exports to the country.  Despite intense scrutiny from the West, bilateral trade has witnessed massive growth in new areas such as iron, machinery, electronics, chemicals, ceramics, and agriculture, Sahai noted.

Referring to the payments mechanism used by the two countries, he said it takes “a little time” for any new system to be put into place and utilized, but much of the trade between India and Russia will be in local currencies “in time to come.” “The advantage of local currency is that you are sure of how much you will be getting as a part of export proceeds and you do your costing based on the local currency; there is no fluctuation in that,” he added.

New Delhi and Moscow implemented a mechanism to facilitate bilateral trade in local currencies after Russia was cut off from the SWIFT international payment system. As trade witnessed a sharp rise, Moscow has reportedly accumulated a surplus of more than $40 billion in special vostro accounts in Indian banks in the local currency. Russian officials have repeatedly called for greater commitment from Indian financial institutions to adopting rupee-ruble payment mechanisms on a larger scale to facilitate growing transactions.

“The moment we allow the Russian companies to liquidate the rupee balance which is lying in India, probably they will be more interested to supply to India also in rupee and we will be, therefore, exporting more in rupee which will help in significant internationalization of rupee also over a period of time", said Sahai.

He made the comments against a backdrop of the Indian government pressing ahead with plans to make the Indian rupee a more widely accepted currency for international trade and investment.

https://www.rt.com/india/592427-indian-exporters-see-tremendous-potential/

India ‘easily’ world’s fastest-growing economy – IMF, 03.02.2024.

The country’s GDP surged 8.4% between October and December 2023, data has shown.

India is the world’s fastest-growing economy and its expansion in the final quarter of last year exceeded expectations, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive director Krishnamurthy Subramanian.

Indian gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.4% between October and December 2023, representing the fastest pace in six quarters, data published by the country’s statistics service on Thursday showed.

“If you look at the GDP numbers, India’s poised for about 8% growth this year, that makes India easily the fastest-growing economy in the world,” Subramanian said.

The fourth quarter expansion reflects strong private consumption and upbeat manufacturing and construction activity, exceeding Reuters’ estimates of a 6.6% growth.

The Indian government has also raised its GDP growth outlook for fiscal year 2023-24 from 7.3% to 7.6%.

Subramanian attributed Indian economic growth to a shift in the government’s focus toward higher capital expenditure, which has increased significantly over the last few years.

“I do expect the focus on capital expenditure to continue and the fiscal math also is looking very responsible,” he added.

The Indian Finance Ministry presented a preliminary budget in early February, forecasting that the fiscal deficit for the 2025 financial year will decline to 5.1% from the revised 5.8% for 2024. The ministry also highlighted the government’s plan to boost spending on infrastructure.

https://www.rt.com/india/593499-india-fastest-growing-economy/

Indian imports of Russian oil rebound despite US pressure – media, 05.05.2024.

The latest US sanctions against Moscow have reportedly had a “marginal and short-lived impact” on trade.

Indian imports of Russian crude oil jumped to a nine-month high in April, despite US sanctions against Russia’s largest shipping company, the Indian Express newspaper reported on Friday, citing vessel tracking data and industry watchers.

Indian refiners imported a total of 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in April, the highest since July of last year, the outlet said in a report based on provisional ship-tracking data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. The figure is nearly 19% higher than volumes imported in March, the data suggests. Russia accounted for 40.3% of India’s total crude oil imports in April, recovering from a decline to around 33% in the past four months, the publication added.

The US and its allies recently blacklisted a number of intermediaries and individual vessels for carrying Russian oil above the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel. In February, Washington targeted Russian oil tanker company Sovcomflot and more than a dozen vessels linked to the state-owned firm. The measures caused payment issues and a slight drop in crude sales in late 2023 and early this year. The sanctions, however, have only had a marginal and short-lived impact on Russian oil flows to India, trade sources told the Indian Express.
The newspaper quoted the head of crude analysis at Kpler, Viktor Katona, as suggesting that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining infrastructure earlier this year prompted the country’s oil producers to export surplus crude that could not be refined. That made greater volumes available to Indian buyers.

Since January, Ukraine has launched a series of long-range drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, including oil depots and refineries. Russia, however, has been able to swiftly repair some of the refineries, reducing capacity idled by the strikes to about 10% in mid-April from almost 14% at the end of March, according to Reuters.

Refiners in India have become major buyers of Russian crude since Western importers ceased purchases as part of sanctions. Moscow began offering large discounts on its crude to attract new markets following the loss of its traditional buyers.
India has saved an estimated $13 billion on oil imports over the past two years by snapping up discounted Russian crude, the Times of India reported this week, citing data compiled by ratings agency ICRA Research.

India is Asia’s third-biggest economy and the world’s third-largest oil consumer. Its dependence on imported crude soared to 87.7% in the financial year from April 2023 to March 2024, according to the Oil Ministry’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). Analysts point out that a lower oil import bill is keeping the Indian government’s fiscal math on track and helping the country to combat inflation.

https://www.rt.com/india/596946-indian-imports-russian-oil-rebound/

Russia fueling Indian economic growth – Jaishankar, 05.14.2024.

New Delhi’s decision to purchase energy supplies from Moscow despite Western pressure is not limited to oil, the foreign minister has said.

Russian natural resources are pivotal to India and its rise as the fastest-growing large economy in the world, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar asserted on Monday.

Speaking at an event in Mumbai, India’s financial capital, Jaishankar emphasized that the nation’s purchases of Russian crude since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 had triggered a debate, “because people were trying to pressurize us not to do it, but we held our position.”

Since the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, New Delhi has faced constant scrutiny from the West due to its robust trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow. Western officials and media have claimed that trade with India has allowed Moscow to “soften the blow” of sanctions imposed by the US, EU and their allies. Jaishankar and other top Indian officials have repeatedly underlined the need to foster relationship with Russia, not only because of historically close ties, but also because of the “pragmatic” needs of the nation of 1.4 billion.

“Today, Russia has become a big natural resource provider for India”, Jaishankar said on Monday. While annual trade between the two countries previously stood at $10-20 billion, it has skyrocketed to up to $70 billion, largely on the back of Indian oil purchases, the top diplomat noted. Indian refiners imported a total of 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in April, the highest since July of last year, according to reports in the Indian media.

Jaishankar underlined that trade ties between New Delhi and Moscow are not limited to crude oil and defense, as is commonly perceived. “We deal in oil, high-quality coal, metals of various kinds, and fertilizers,” he noted. He added that India has a pressing need for resources to “drive the momentum.”

The Indian economy is growing rapidly and is expected to become the world’s third largest by the end of this decade, behind only the US and China. Owing to continued growth, New Delhi has raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for fiscal year 2023-24 from 7.3% to 7.6%. India is also set to become the world’s third-largest consumer market by 2026, according to the ‘India Economic Perspectives’ report by UBS. In 2023, India’s household consumption surged to $2.1 trillion, nearly double the previous decade, according to the report.

Speaking at another event on Monday, Jaishankar commented on friction with the West over oil trade with Russia. The diplomat claimed that New Delhi’s dialogue with Washington had caused a shift in the latter’s perception of India-Russia trade ties. He contrasted this with the “emotional” response among some European nations, which he believed could have been influenced by their proximity to the conflict zone.

Meanwhile, US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti recently claimed that India’s purchase of Russian crude oil was “the design” of Washington’s policy. “They bought Russian oil because we wanted somebody to buy Russian oil at a price cap,” Garcetti said. “We didn’t want the price of the commodity to go up, they [India] fulfilled that.”

https://www.rt.com/india/597565-russia-fueling-indian-economic-growth/

Trade turnover between Russia and India reached a record $17.5 billion, 05.20.2024.

Trade turnover between Russia and India in January-March reached a record $17.5 billion.

MOSCOW, May 20 - RIA Novosti. Trade turnover between Russia and India in the first quarter reached a record $17.5 billion, and the main month for “profit” was March, according to RIA Novosti calculations based on data from the Indian Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Thus, Russian-Indian trade grew by 5% year on year, to a record $17.5 billion. The previous high was $17 billion in the second quarter of last year.

In January it amounted to 6 billion dollars, in February 5.2 billion. In March, the figure grew by 7.6% year on year and reached $6.3 billion - which is only slightly inferior to the record May of last year (6.33 billion).

At the same time, Russia supplied $16.3 billion worth of goods to India in the first quarter, compared to $15.6 billion a year earlier. This allowed Russia to remain the second main supplier of goods to India, ahead only of China with supplies worth $24.8 billion.

Exports of Indian goods to Russia in January-March increased by 22% to $1.2 billion. Here Russia is 28th. The top 5 recipients of Indian goods include the US ($20.8 billion), UAE ($10.9 billion), Netherlands ($6.8 billion), Singapore ($5.5 billion) and China ($4.7 billion).

China became India's main trading partner in the first quarter - their mutual trade increased by 9.6%, to $29.5 billion. Indian-American trade turnover decreased by 3.8% to $29.4 billion. The UAE remains in third place (an increase of 25%, to $26.1 billion). The top five is closed by Saudi Arabia , whose trade turnover with India decreased by 8.3% to $12.2 billion.

https://ria.ru/20240520/indiya-1947084646.html

The rise of India: from English colony to 21st century global power, by Guilherme Correia for SputnikBrazil. 05.20.2024.

A nation rich in history and culture, India has cemented its position as one of the world's most promising emerging economic powers in the Twenty-First Century.

To Sputnik Brasil, the International analyst and Indian journalist, Shobhan Saxena, says that the Indian economic change intensified about 20 years ago, with the adoption of a new production model. "India's economy has changed, it has grown a lot and poverty has reduced. India no longer has the problem of hunger and the health, transport and education system has improved."

In recent years, India has become the fifth largest economy in the world, overtaking the UK. Saxena credits the growth to increased domestic and foreign investment, particularly in infrastructure. "The government of India is making a lot of investment, especially in the area of infrastructure. Companies from other countries are also investing heavily."

The country has advanced significantly in the technology sector, with Bengaluru being highlighted as the Indian "Silicon Valley" in the analyst's view. Indian technology, pharmaceutical and oil companies have gained a global presence, including in Brazil.

In the interview with journalists Melina Saad and Marcelo Castilho of the Mundioka podcast, Saxena says that the "Make in India" initiative has attracted foreign companies to establish their factories in the country, taking advantage of competitive labor and resource costs.

According to the journalist, one of India's greatest assets is its young population. "More than 75 percent of India's population is aged between 15 and 35," he said, noting that such demographics provide a valuable workforce and a growing consumer market.

How is India's economy currently?

Louvain University political science researcher Joao Paulo Nicolini says the Indian economy has benefited from a young population but also a strong service industry.

Nicolini explained that "the core market of the global north seeks services provided by Indians," contributing to robust economic growth.

However, he also warned of informality in the Indian labor market, with data from the International Labor Organization (ILO) indicating that "approximately 80% of the youth population is unable to enter the formal labor market."

The landing of an Indian probe on the Moon, however, is highlighted by Nicolini as a significant milestone, showing that the “scientific development of India is a strong point of the country", placing it in a prominent position in the Global South, with regard to the area of Science and Technology.

How important is Bollywood?

The term Bollywood is a combination of the words "Bombay" — the former name of the largest Indian city, Mumbai — and "Hollywood", an American district that concentrates the production of us films. Mumbai is responsible for the making of big-budget Indian films and is the largest film production center on the planet.

According to Saxena, India is expanding its cultural influence globally through soft power. "The government of India has an organization called the International Culture Council, to share, spread Indian culture."

According to him, this is reflected in the proliferation of Indian cultural centers around the world, yoga classes, meditation and the international success of Bollywood, for example.

In what year did India cease to be a colony of England?

In 1947, India ceased to be a colony of England, after centuries of domination of the European country. The first in Indian territory were the Portuguese, in the sixteenth century, but British ships arrived in 1612 and began the process of colonization.

After this period, the country began to begin a process of change from a colonial economy to a nation that aimed at its development.

Researcher João Paulo Nicolini emphasizes that for Indians, the vision of their nation as a great power is nothing new. "The country's elite, regardless of party, understands that India has always been a great power, subjugated during the period of British colonization," he explained.

According to him, colonization "extracted and complicated Indian economic development", but also fostered a sense of unification around Independence.

The transition to a modern great power, according to Nicolini, is strongly connected with scientific and technological development. "India has achieved this very developed science and technology capability, overcoming blockages of the great powers, especially in the nuclear area."

The breakthrough allowed the Asian country to achieve a status similar to that of the great powers of the Global North in some types of technology.

Who governs India today?

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held the post since 2014. This year, he hopes to get a third term as the country's head of government. The election began on April 19 and will conclude on June 1, with the counting of votes, made in electronic ballot boxes, scheduled for June 4.

In the world's most populous country, the prime minister is appointed by the party that won the most seats in the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of Parliament.

In 2022, parliamentarians also chose the president of India, Draupadi Murmu. She serves as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and holds key powers in political crises, such as when an election is inconclusive. However, the prime minister is the one who holds executive powers.

Asked about the Modi government's role in India's economic growth, Nicolini acknowledges social controversies but underscores Modi's efforts toward industrialization and red tape reduction.

"He tried to bring other countries closer to India, expanding access to technology and reducing bureaucratic problems with a single tax, Indian VAT, which facilitates negotiation between states and with other countries."

However, he also noted that "globalization has facilitated Indian economic growth much more than per se some actions the government has taken."

What is India's position in BRICS?

For Nicolini, India maintains a complex and pragmatic relationship with other global powers, balancing its relations with the United States and Russia. According to him, the stance is due to a long history of Soviet support and a strategy of "pragmatism in the way of relating to the powers."

He points out that" the Americans seek Indian support to prevent the Chinese from advancing too far " in the Indo-Pacific region, given the geopolitical competition between India and China.

For Saxena, in the international arena, India has managed to balance its relations with the various global powers. "India has a very strong and strategic relationship with the United States, but India has not left Russia."

India's future

Saxena says there are challenges in providing quality education and employment for this population. Despite the progress, the country still faces challenges: "India, so far, has poverty, health system problem. It has problems, because India is the most populous in the world.”

Although the economy is growing, the distribution of wealth and the improvement of basic services such as health and education are still areas that need continued attention.

The future of the country looks promising, with a forecast that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could reach US$ 10 trillion (about R$ 50,9 trillion) in the next five years, according to him.

"The Indian people and everyone is more optimistic for the future of India".

For Nicolini, the prediction that India will become the third largest economy in the world by 2030 is plausible. "I even believe that it can be even with all that expectation that we already had with the BRICS," he concluded.

Yandex Translate from Portuguese

https://noticiabrasil.net.br/20240520/a-ascensao-da-india-de-colonia-inglesa-a-potencia-global-do-seculo-xxi-34691712.html

Russia proposes advanced nuclear projects to India, 05.23.2024.

Top officials from the two countries’ atomic agencies have discussed expanding cooperation beyond power generation.

Top officials from Russian and Indian nuclear agencies on Thursday discussed expanding cooperation in the nuclear field beyond power generation, Rosatom said in a statement. Aleksey Likhachev, the director-general of Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation, and Ajit Kumar Mohanty, the chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of India, held talks during a site visit in Seversk, Tomsk Region.

During the visit, Rosatom showcased the Pilot Demonstration Energy Complex to its Indian partners. This complex is being developed under the ‘Proryv’ (Breakthrough) project, which aims to establish a new technological platform for a closed nuclear fuel cycle and address the challenges of spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste.

The goal is to create a competitive product that will ensure the leadership of Russian technologies in the global nuclear power industry, according to Rosatom. “We are ready for serious expansion of the cooperation with India in the field of using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” Likhachev said.

According to him, this includes the construction of Russian-designed high-capacity nuclear power units at a new site in India, which is yet to be publicly disclosed by New Delhi, as well as implementing land-based and floating low-power generation projects.

The two countries are also discussing cooperation in the nuclear fuel cycle area, as well as non-power applications of nuclear technologies, the Rosatom chief said.

The officials also discussed the progress of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP), which is being built in Tamil Nadu, southern India. The KNPP, India’s largest nuclear power plant, includes six power units equipped with light-water reactors, each with a capacity of 1,000 MW.

The first two units were connected to the national grid in 2013 and 2016 respectively, and currently supply power to the southern Indian region. The four remaining units are at different stages of construction and equipment fitting.

In December last year, during a visit of Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar to Moscow, the countries signed agreements to move forward on implementing the fifth and sixth reactors for the Kudankulam project. Jaishankar recently noted at a press conference in Mumbai that India is looking at “additional sites for Russian reactors.”

Speaking to the media, Likhachev said Russia has been extensively sharing the latest technological advancements in the nuclear field with India. The two nations are also working together on projects in third countries – Rosatom and Indian companies have been engaged in the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant in Bangladesh.

The plant, which is around 140km west of Dhaka, is Bangladesh’s biggest infrastructure project to date and a vital part of plans to move away from coal and other fossil fuels. Moscow and Dhaka signed several intergovernmental credit agreements worth around $12 billion for financing the project.

https://www.rt.com/india/598139-russia-proposes-advanced-nuclear-projects/

Indian economy surpasses growth estimates, 05.06.01.

GDP grew 8.2% during the financial year ending in March, exceeding predictions.

India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the 2023-24 financial year, exceeding analysts’ expectations, government data released on Friday shows. In 2022-23, GDP expanded by 7%.

The robust growth has been attributed to a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector and a continuing surge in construction and services, data shows. Both sectors grew 9.9% during the recently concluded financial year.

This is the fastest pace of economic growth that the world’s most populous country has seen since 2021-22, when the economy was rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, registering 9.1% GDP growth. It is also higher than the 7.6% growth the government had predicted before the financial year ended.

A higher pace of growth was registered in the fourth quarter (January-March 2024), during which the economy grew 7.8% year-on-year compared with the 6.2% growth recorded a year ago.

India, the fastest growing major economy in the world, has maintained its upward trajectory at a time when many economies have struggled. “We expect economic activity to moderate a bit further over the coming quarters, but India will remain a global outperformer,” Ankita Amajuri, assistant economist at Capital Economics, was quoted as saying by CNN.

In 2022, the South Asian country leapfrogged the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in the world, worth $3.7 trillion. India is now projected to surpass Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy by the end of the decade.

Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the prime minister, said earlier this month that India will be a $4 trillion economy in 2024-25 and surpass Japan by early next fiscal year to become the world’s fourth largest economy. In April, the IMF estimated that India’s GDP will likely total $4.33 trillion in 2025, compared with Japan’s $4.31 trillion.

The development comes amid ongoing parliamentary elections in India, in which nearly 970 million citizens are eligible to vote in this election. Narendra Modi, who is seeking a third term as a prime minister, came to power in 2014 on several promises, including transforming the economy and turning it into a manufacturing powerhouse. During the current election campaign, Modi has vowed to take India’s economy to third place behind the US and China.

https://www.rt.com/india/598632-indian-economy-surpasses-growth-estimates/

Kostin called the problem with rupees stuck in India “resolved”, 06.07.2024.

Settlements with China and India are carried out in national currencies, the problem of rupiah has been solved, Kostin said. The head of VTB noted the “cowardice” of the banking sector due to the risk of secondary sanctions and doubted that the United States would decide to “blow up the financial system”.

The situation with cross-border payments is improving, in this regard, “there is good bilateral development” with other BRICS countries, VTB CEO Andrei Kostin said in an interview with Izvestia.

According to Kostin, about 90% of all payments between China and Russia are carried out in national currencies - yuan and rubles. “The situation is the same with settlements with India, although our exports there significantly exceed imports. But the problem with stuck rupees has resolved today. The problem has been resolved, as with other countries,” he assured.

In the summer of 2023 , Bloomberg reported that up to $1 billion in rupees accumulates monthly in the accounts of Russian companies in Indian banks, which is almost impossible to spend due to currency restrictions in the country. Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexei Zabotkin said last September that the rupee balances in the accounts of Russian exporters are gradually declining and are insignificant in relation to export volumes. The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, spoke about the same thing.

https://www.rbc.ru/finances/07/06/2024/666297e29a7947083c5b6b5c

India’s comeback: How Modi foiled the West’s grand plan, by Kanwal Sibal, a retired Indian foreign secretary and a former Ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2007. He also held ambassadorial positions in Turkey, Egypt, France and was Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington DC., 06.09.2024.

As the Indian leader prepares to be sworn-in as prime minister for the third time on Sunday, the world will continue looking up to New Delhi as an emerging global power, whose voice cannot be ignored.

India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Modi was expected to win a decisive majority in the recently-concluded national elections. All observers and exit polls predicted this.

When the results were announced earlier this week, however, it emerged that the BJP had failed to win a majority of its own. It will now form a coalition government with the support of regional parties as its allies as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Undoubtedly, the election results have been a set back for Modi and the BJP. But it is unlikely that this will materially affect governance.

In his address at BJP headquarters after the election results were announced Modi made it clear that it will be ‘business as usual’ for him. His vision for India’s future remains unchanged. He will implement an agenda as per his commitments. This task will of course become more difficult – with a stronger political opposition at home.

However, as regards foreign policy, there will be continuity. BJP and its allies in the NDA bloc do not have differences on external affairs. The two principal coalition partners have a domestic policy focus.
As it is, foreign policy was not a subject of debate during the elections, barring some episodic attacks by the Congress opposition on the government’s China policy, which it claims downplays the extent of China’s border intrusions. The election manifestoes of various political parties contained little on issues of India’s foreign policy.

The BJP’s own election manifesto was perfunctory in this regard. It made no direct reference to the US or Russia. China was mentioned only in the context of accelerating the build up of infrastructure on the India-China border.

Issues such as collaboration with Indo-Pacific countries to focus on security and growth of all, continuation of the Neighbourhood First policy, support for Israel on the issue of terrorism, India’s aspiration for permanent membership of the UN Security Council all figured in the BJP manifesto’s bare-boned foreign policy content.

It also made note of substantial gains in the global spread of India’s soft power, such as the International Yoga Day and Ayurveda, as well as the return of stolen artefacts to the country. The growing study of Indian classical languages in educational institutions across the world was mentioned as a goal.

In his few remarks on foreign policy in the several media interviews he gave during his election campaign, Modi spoke of India as a “vishwabandhu”, that is, a friend of all countries. This would mean a continuation of the existing policy of of avoiding entanglement in third country conflicts, work in favour of diplomacy and dialogue, and be a force for peace.

It implies support for multilateralism, as that guarantees the promotion of collective interest through a constructive dialogue. It also implies preserving India’s independence in foreign policy making, otherwise described as “strategic autonomy”.

One can also broadly include in the “vishwabandhu” concept support for the priorities and concerns of the global south in international affairs. Cooperative multipolarity flows from this, as multipolarity is necessary to counter hegemony,  to balance the interests of North and South, or East and West, and promote equal treatment of all members of the international community.

Since Modi assumed power in 2014, he has been a target of criticism by the media, think tanks, academic circles, democracy promotion and human rights organisations,  and the so-called “progressive” civil society elements in the West. These attacks continued before and after Modi won the 2019 elections. Some sections of the western media and research organisations actually called for rejecting Modi electorally.
The intensity of these attacks increased prior to this year’s election. The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Economist, the Financial Times, Le Monde, Deutsche Welle, the Wall Street Journal, France 24, the BBC, the journal Foreign Affairs have led a manifestly orchestrated campaign against Modi’s re-election. Attacks have come from the US International Commission of Religious Freedoms, V-Dem of Sweden, the Open Society Foundation of George Soros, the Human Rights and Religious Freedom reports of the US State Department etc. Individual US Congressmen have joined the chorus too.

The substance of these attacks has been identical with that of the principal Indian opposition party’s criticism of Modi personally and of his government.

A new line of attack has been opened up, this time through intelligence leaks, accusing India of interfering in elections in Canada and New Delhi’s operatives of monitoring the activities of the Indian diaspora, in Australia for example, or even eliminating political dissidents abroad. The opposition in India has tried to leverage these claims to accuse the Modi government of bringing disrepute to the country, instead of exposing the political purpose behind these foreign attacks, which is to defame India.

Western countries are very sensitive to any perceived external interference in their elections and have imposed sanctions on countries thought to have interfered. But their agencies have been complicit in interfering in India’s politics and the electoral scene. This is a typical case of double standards.

How much the third Modi government will take note of this western (and suspected Chinese) interference in India’s internal and electoral affairs, including by resident western correspondents in India, remains to be seen.

Some in India’s security circles have long believed that the West would prefer a weakened Modi government in power, one without a majority of its own, as that would make India more vulnerable to pressure. In western think tank and media circles the desire to cut Modi to size has been apparent. The latest issue of the Economist emphasizing the humbling of Modi reflects this.

How much this strengthens the underlying distrust of the West in India or informs policy towards the West is not clear, but some effect it will have. At a minimum, the need to maintain a balance in our external ties, especially with regard to the importance of Russia, will be recognised even more, as also the advantages of our links with BRICS and the SCO as counters to western pressure and stepping stones towards a multipolar world. Of course, the difficult ties with China complicate India’s options in this regard.

Modi’s policy on the Ukraine conflict will remain unchanged. He will not personally attend the peace conference on Ukraine in Switzerland. On Gaza, India continues to support a two state solution and has voted accordingly in the UN General Assembly. India’s position on these two issues is guided by its national interest.

At the end of the day, the size of the electoral victory of a politician is of passing interest abroad. Foreign countries have to deal with those in power. Very few western politicians have decisive internal support. Their popular ratings are often low but that does not affect how the world deals with them.

If India’s economy, which grew by 8.2% in 2023 continues to expand, if economic reforms boost India’s attractiveness, if the country succeeds in developing its manufacturing sector, including in the defence area, and if the vital ‘youth dividend’ materialises as expected, India’s foreign policy options in the coming five years of Modi’s government will expand. The country will succeed in protecting its national interest and increase its influence in world affairs.

https://www.rt.com/india/598972-india-eletion-decoded-modi/

National currencies and loans: what trends in the Indian market did Sber talk about?, 06.11.2024.

At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, representatives of Sberbank spoke about the bank’s projects in India. The financial organization noted the growing popularity of national currencies in payments between countries and the increased interest of corporate clients in accounts in the Indian branch of Sberbank.

At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2024), much attention was paid to interaction with the economies of the countries of the so-called global South. One of the flagships of this region, India, has long and successfully developed not only interstate trade relations with Russia, but also contributes to the development of Russian companies in its market.

Representatives of one of these companies, Sberbank, spoke at the forum about the experience of a financial organization in Indian realities and noted how much the quantitative parameters of interaction between countries and companies have grown over the past year.

Payments in national currencies

Deputy Chairman of Sberbank Anatoly Popov, in an interview with TASS, said that the popularity of the American dollar and euro in the Russian financial system continues to decline. The top manager points to their replacement with so-called soft currencies - the currencies of Russia’s largest trading partners, such as China and India.

At the same time, according to the top manager, today we can say that interstate payments in national currencies have become a familiar and understandable mechanism - it only took a couple of years. “In 2023, the volume of settlements in rupees/rubles between Russia and India through the Sberbank infrastructure increased 11 times in annual terms. This year the growth continues, and in the first quarter of 2024 we saw a fourfold increase compared to the first quarter of 2023,” explains Popov.

He also believes that “there is no shortage of rupees in Russia today,” this problem did not exist on the market for long, and the situation was balanced after Russian importers entered the Indian market and began buying a large number of goods. At the same time, active trade turnover between countries is positively influenced by the speed of operation of the payment infrastructure. “Already 11% of payments are credited within one business day. And any small payments, including for individuals, are completed in a matter of hours. If you need rupees for various trips, then it all takes a fairly short time,” says Popov.

Loans and deposits

In addition, Popov, in a conversation with the publication, noted that deposits in rupees for corporate clients, which the Indian branch of the bank had previously launched, are in high demand. So, in particular, in the first four months of 2024, the number of accounts opened by such clients increased by 67%. “Most Russian companies prefer to work through Sberbank when trading with India, which is reflected in the performance of the bank’s branch in India,” explains Popov. According to him, compared to the same period in 2023, the growth of this indicator is even more significant - twofold.

At the same time, the bank also notes an increased number of transactions of individuals and legal entities carried out by the Sberbank branch in India. Compared to January-April 2023, this figure has tripled, the number of payments by individuals from Russia to India has increased by 40%, Popov said at SPIEF. In total, in the first quarter of 2024, about 60% of all payments for Indian imports to Russia went through Sberbank’s infrastructure. The average payment by legal entities made by a bank branch in India increased by 14% over the year.

Russian companies and entrepreneurs who wanted to expand their business in India are looking for opportunities to attract credit funds in rupees, Sberbank representatives said on the sidelines of SPIEF-2024. According to them, “the bank will be happy to consider such applications” and is already offering deposits in Indian national currency. The maximum rate on irrevocable rupee deposits at the time of product launch in April 2024 was 5.11%.

Sberbank, in a sense, follows Russian business, clarifies Anatoly Popov. “That is, if a Russian business enters a new market, then our task is to accompany it,” he explains.

IT department and license

One of Sberbank’s new projects in India is the IT division in Bangalore. Anatoly Popov notes that “the bank needed to develop its own IT solution for sustainable operation in the local market,” and Sber decided not to use Russian development, but to turn to the expertise of local Indian specialists. “Bangalore is the IT development capital of India and our team has already landed there. We had no difficulties with registration, opening, or recruiting staff. We want to focus specifically on Bangalore, so that both our development team and our product owners are located there,” says the top manager.

In addition to the IT hub, Sberbank in India received a foreign portfolio investor license from the local regulator - it allows the bank’s clients to gain access to the Indian stock market. “One of the tasks we set for ourselves is to provide an opportunity, including to Sber clients, to effectively invest in international instruments related to India in Indian companies. There is a developed stock market, a large number of public companies and opportunities for hedging currencies and commodities,” says Popov. At the same time, according to him, Sber is constantly developing and building infrastructure in friendly countries, and obtaining similar licenses in other jurisdictions is in the works.

https://www.rbc.ru/industries/news/66686fc49a79478469943623

Russia will help India find a place among the great powers, by Andrey Rezchikov for VZGLYAD. 07.08.2024.

Russia visit will help Modi strengthen India's position in Asia.

Moscow is expecting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This visit is important for both sides not only in terms of strengthening bilateral relations, but also in the context of resolving international security issues. As experts note, Moscow gives New Delhi the opportunity to balance its foreign policy and not slide under the dictate of Washington, which is looking for any possible levers of pressure on China.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Moscow on Monday. His visit is connected with the 22nd annual India-Russia summit. The trip is also notable because Modi recently won the parliamentary elections, allowing him to head the government for the third time in a row.

Let us recall that the last Russian-Indian summit took place in December 2021 in New Delhi. Following that meeting, 28 memorandums of understanding and agreements were signed, and the leaders issued a joint statement "Indian-Russian Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity."

According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the summit in Moscow will cover a full range of bilateral issues, including defence, trade, ties, investment, energy cooperation, science and technology, education and culture. As Indian First Deputy External Affairs Minister Vinay Kwatra stated, the main topic will be the imbalance in trade between India and Russia.

As RIA Novosti reports , the diplomat recalled that in 2023-2024, bilateral trade has grown sharply and approached 65 billion dollars, "mainly due to close energy cooperation." However, Indian exports amount to 4 billion dollars, and imports are approaching 60 billion. "Trade remains unbalanced, which is a priority of our negotiations with the Russian side," Kwatra emphasized.

He also noted the growth of mutual investments in energy, banking, railways and steel. “These are developing areas of our investment partnership,” he said.

According to Indian customs data , in the first four months of this year, trade turnover between Russia and India grew by 10%, reaching a record $23.1 billion. Indian exports increased by 21% to $1.6 billion, which allowed Russia to rise from 33rd to 29th place among recipients of products from India.

Experts say that the meeting will be important not only for strengthening bilateral relations, but also in the context of regional security. “Modi’s visit to Russia after winning the election is not accidental. His inauguration was mainly attended by representatives of South Asian countries. There are currently difficulties in relations between India and China, and the Prime Minister did not attend the SCO summit in Astana. Apparently, he now needs to strengthen his position in the region. And here Russia can be a very important partner,” notes Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Lomonosov Moscow State University and Professor at the School of Oriental Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

According to official data, Modi missed the last SCO summit due to the coincident first session of the new parliament, at which he took the oath and assumed office as head of government. “This visit is a long-overdue decision, because Putin last visited India in 2021, and Modi visited Russia in 2019,” recalls Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean region group at IMEMO RAS. “The importance of the visit is difficult to overestimate. This year, elections were held in both countries, and their leaders were re-elected for new terms. The main thing is “The world has changed a lot in just a few years, and the leaders of the two states, on whose course much depends in the emerging world order, have something to discuss,” notes Lidiya Kulik, senior researcher at the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. As for military-technical cooperation, it is currently on hold, Kupriyanov emphasizes. "Economic cooperation continues to develop. Most likely, following the negotiations, documents will be signed aimed at improving the regulation of economic cooperation," the speaker predicts.

Maslov believes that Modi's main task during the visit is to resolve the issue of imbalance in trade relations. "The discussion will mainly be about attracting investment in the nuclear industry and energy. Much has already been done in this area. The discussion will also touch on oil supplies from Russia. We have a surplus here, while India has a deficit, and this needs to be resolved," he explained.

The interlocutor believes that issues in the sphere of military cooperation will also be discussed. "The parties were already close to completing negotiations on India purchasing Russian military equipment, but at the last moment everything fell through. The Americans were seriously pressuring India. If the negotiations are nevertheless brought to an end, this will be a serious step by India away from Washington," Maslov noted.

“Economic cooperation will expand, covering new areas.

In addition to the increasing supplies of raw materials and non-raw materials in both directions, investment projects will acquire greater importance, training and attraction of Indian personnel will expand, - notes Kulik. - The most important issue is the creation of a modern, effective infrastructure of the international transport corridor "North-South", necessary for the business of the two countries, as well as further improvement of the payment system - both bilateral and within the BRICS+ framework."

According to Kupriyanov's forecast, the meeting will discuss issues of Eurasian and international security, as well as the situation in Ukraine. The expert recalled that the representative of India present at the Geneva conference on Ukraine did not sign the final declaration. New Delhi advocates for the participation of both parties in the negotiations and claims that the Ukrainian crisis should be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue.

"There is now clear fatigue from the conflict on the other side and a desire to probe Russia's position. If two years ago Modi's visit to Moscow would have looked like a bold challenge to the West, now it is quite logical against the backdrop of the shuttle diplomacy of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as well as statements by Erdogan and the Saudis," the source added. Kulik notes that

Moscow and New Delhi share an understanding of the priority of national sovereignty, maintaining stability in the heart of the Eurasian continent, and the danger of interference from external players in sensitive issues of relations between Eurasian states.

"Even the difficulties in India's relations with China do not prevent the leadership in Delhi and Beijing from working towards stability and predictability in the macro-region. The danger of bloc confrontation in Asia is also a topic for bilateral discussions," the speaker said.

Kupriyanov emphasizes that the US is unlikely to be frightened by the rapprochement between Moscow and New Delhi, because "India is trying to simultaneously develop relations with both the United States and Russia." "Washington is one of India's priority partners. But Russia is also very important. India does not want to make its foreign policy dependent on American desires; its position is to find its place among the great powers," the expert is sure.

However, Maslov believes that the US is irritated by the development of Russian-Indian relations. "The Americans view the country as a military, technological and trade counterweight to China, so Washington is doing everything it can to stimulate the transfer of its own companies from China to India.

And if, against this backdrop, there is a rapprochement between New Delhi and Moscow, which is clearly not interested in a conflict in this region, then the United States is losing a serious lever of control,”

– explained the professor of the School of Oriental Studies of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to Kulik, New Delhi’s Western partners are downplaying the importance of Russian-Indian relations, focusing on existing difficulties. “During the recent election campaign in India, the Western press went so far as to openly recommend voting against Modi, in an attempt to influence English-speaking Indian readers, as if it was not an independent India that was at issue, but their domestic policy,” the interviewee recalled.

"However, such interference cannot go unnoticed in New Delhi. Russia, on the contrary, is always perceived in India as a reliable partner and friend. Russian business needs to more actively use such an important capital of trust in the largest country and the fastest growing economy in the world," the specialist concluded.

https://vz.ru/politics/2024/7/8/1276357.html

Top Russian fertilizer firm urges India to lift import duty[/b], 07.11.2024.

Duty-free trade would reduce product costs for Indian farmers, a leading agrochemical company has said.

Russia’s top fertilizer producer PhosAgro has called on India to lift a 5% import duty to ensure stable supplies for the benefit of Indian farmers, the company has said.

Russia became India’s biggest fertilizer supplier in 2022, with exports surging more than five-fold to 2.8 million tons. Supplies of agrochemical products rose by a further 1.5 times in 2023, driving Russia’s share on the Indian market to 25%, according to PhosAgro.

The appeal to drop the import duty comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed in Moscow to boost mutual trade from the current $65 billion to $100 billion within six years.

Following the bilateral talks, Russia and India also pledged to continue cooperation in the field of sustainable fertilizer supplies to India, based on long-term contracts between companies.

PhosAgro, which has been supplying its products to India since the 1990s, said in a statement on Tuesday that it is willing to boost fertilizer exports. However, its “capabilities are limited by trade barriers” which increase the cost of products for the country’s consumers. The removal of the 5% tariff would “benefit Indian farmers both in terms of price and the use of highly effective fertilizers,” the company added.

The producer also suggested creating a free trade zone between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The Russia-led EEU currently brings together five post-Soviet countries, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

The transition to a duty-free trade regime with Russia would reduce India’s budget spending on subsidizing fertilizers and increase the availability of products for the country’s farmers, according to PhosAgro.

In recent years, India has become one of Russia’s biggest trade partners, since Moscow turned to friendly Asian economies following the imposition of Western sanctions due to the Ukraine conflict. Bilateral trade between the Moscow and New Delhi has already almost tripled in the past two years, with India ramping up energy, fertilizer, and coal imports from Russia.

https://www.rt.com/india/600843-russia-india-fertilizer-import-duty/

India seeking greater market access in Russia, 07.16.2024.

New Delhi is in talks with Moscow on easing the non-tariff barriers faced by its exporters.

The Indian government is in discussions with Russia on a potential easing of non-tariff trade barriers, with the goal of boosting exports to the country, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said on Monday.

The official told reporters that New Delhi wants to make trade with Russia more balanced. Last week, the leaders of both countries set a trade target of $100 billion by 2030. In 2023 the figure was $65 billion, of which only $5 billion were Indian exports to Russia. The bulk of bilateral transactions are Indian purchases of discounted Russian oil, coal and fertilisers.

“We are looking at various sets of commodities such as electronics, engineering goods and other items, where trade can be enhanced,” the commerce secretary was quoted by Business Standard as saying. He added that India is also eyeing sectors where Russia is under Western sanctions.

Barthwal noted that India is looking for “greater market access” for its exporters, and has raised the issue of “non-tariff barriers” with Russia.

According to Barthwal, Indian exporters of marine products and pharmaceuticals “face issues” in Russia regarding certification, and New Delhi has conveyed its concerns to Moscow. He noted that another Indian delegation is likely to visit Russia soon.

During their summit in Moscow last week, Indian and Russian leaders Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi discussed the need to expand and diversify economic cooperation. After the talks in the Kremlin, Putin’s top economic adviser Maksim Oreshkin said that “suitable payment mechanisms” featured in the discussions.

The two sides have signed nine separate agreements, including deals on promoting cross-border investments, on trade and investment in the Russian Far East through 2029, and cooperation on climate change and low-carbon development.

The countries have also revived negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement covering goods between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, along with the development of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

The possibility of talks on a bilateral free-trade deal in services and investment has also been raised.

In addition, India is working on a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) national media has reported, which would involve Russia and several former Soviet republics.

India has abstained from United Nations (UN) resolutions condemning Russia over the Ukraine conflict and continued its bilateral engagements with Moscow despite intense scrutiny from the West. New Delhi officials have on various occasions emphasised that relations with Russia, including increased oil imports, serve India’s strategic interests.

https://www.rt.com/india/601130-india-seeks-greater-market-access/

New Delhi projects economic growth of up to 7%, 07.22.2024.

India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the 2023-24 financial year, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

The Indian economy is set to grow by between 6.5% and 7% during the current financial year and by around 7% per annum going forward, according to the latest economic forecast presented to the country’s parliament.

The outlook was contained in a comprehensive report on the state of the nation’s economy ahead of the federal budget for the next financial year, which will be announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday.

It will be the first budget of the newly elected National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the recent elections, the NDA secured the majority of seats in the 543-seat lower house of parliament.

The previous government, in which Sitharaman also held the post of finance minister, had announced an interim budget earlier this year. The latest economic survey, revealed on Monday, warned that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in 2024 could lead to “supply dislocations, higher commodity prices, reviving inflationary pressures and stalling monetary policy easing.”

“The Indian economy is on a strong wicket and stable footing, demonstrating resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges,” the survey stated. It added that the inflation rate is “largely under control,” even if the rate in respect of some specific food items “is elevated.”

The document emphasized that the Indian economy could grow at a rate of over 7% on a sustained basis in the medium term by building on the past decade’s reforms.

The survey “conservatively” projected GDP growth of between 6.5% and 7%, in line with projections by most global credit rating agencies. It identified job creation as one of the key priorities for the federal government, and highlighted the need for the corporate sector to create more employment. Addressing economic challenges will require collaboration between government and the private sector “to reboot the mission to skill and equip Indians to catch up with and get ahead of technological evolution,” the document noted.

According to the survey, 65% of India’s population is under the age of 35, and many lack the skills needed by a modern economy. Only 51.25% of the country’s young people are considered employable.

India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the 2023-24 financial year, compared to 7% in the previous period, exceeding analysts’ expectations, government data showed last month. The country’s robust growth has been largely attributed to a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector and a continuing surge in construction and services.

The Indian economy is the fifth largest in the world and is also among the fastest growing. The South Asian country leapfrogged the UK in the rankings of the biggest global economies in 2022. It is now expected to overtake Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy by the end of the decade. It is also expected to become a $5 trillion economy within the same period.

Despite a steady growth in GDP, the South Asian country has witnessed a dip in foreign direct investment, falling from $47.6 billion in the last financial year to $45.8 billion in 2023-24.

https://www.rt.com/india/601510-india-anticipates-economy-growth/

India returns to importing oil from Venezuela, seeks to ease restrictions on Chinese investments, 07.24.2024.

India is likely to ease restrictions on Chinese investment in sectors such as solar panels and batteries. At the same time, New Delhi may resume oil imports from Venezuela.

In 2020, India tightened scrutiny on investments by China-based companies due to military tensions on the Himalayan border. However, the government is planning to release sectors it considers less security-sensitive for Chinese investment from the survey, an Indian official told Reuters on Wednesday.

Non-critical sectors "would be decided on a case-by-case basis," a second official said, but restrictions on Chinese investments in electronics and telecommunications would continue.

The plans mark a first step toward improving economic ties between the two neighbors, a relationship that worsened after border clashes in 2020.

Also on Wednesday, India's multinational conglomerate Reliance Industries received approval from the United States to resume oil imports from Venezuela despite Washington's sanctions, a source familiar with the matter told the media.

Before U.S. oil sanctions were first imposed on Venezuela in 2019, Reliance was the second-largest single buyer of Venezuelan crude after China'S CNPC.

Reliance had resubmitted an application to the U.S. in May for authorization to import Venezuelan crude oil after the U.S. Treasury Department refused to grant licenses to Indian refiners, including Reliance, following sanctions relief in October.

However, Indian refiners resumed purchases of Venezuelan oil through intermediaries until sanctions were reimposed in June.

Yandex Translate from Portuguese.

https://noticiabrasil.net.br/20240724/india-volta-a-importar-petroleo-da-venezuela-e-pretende-aliviar-restricoes-a-investimentos-chineses-35726892.html

India responds to US criticism over Russia ties, 07.26.2024.

Responding to Washington’s remarks on Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, New Delhi insisted it has “freedom of choice”.

New Delhi has called on its Western partners to appreciate the realities of multipolarity, by which countries have “freedom of choice” when it comes to engagement with other nations on the global stage.

Responding to criticism from Washington of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Moscow, a spokesman for the Indian Foreign Ministry noted that New Delhi has a longstanding relationship with Russia “that is based on mutuality of interests.”

“In a multipolar world, all countries have the freedom of choice. It is essential for everybody to be mindful of and appreciate such realities,” he said.

The comment came in response to remarks made by US State Department official Donald Lu at a congressional hearing on Tuesday. He said the White House had been disappointed by the “symbolism” and “timing” of Modi’s visit.

Earlier, several US media outlets had reported that Biden administration officials were “frustrated” that Modi’s visit had coincided with a NATO summit in Washington.

India has abstained from UN resolutions condemning Russia over the Ukraine conflict, and has expanded bilateral trade ties with Moscow.

Lu also noted that the US was looking “very carefully” at what Modi did while he was in Moscow, claiming that major defense deals had been signed during the visit.

The remarks by the State Department official contrast with those coming from Moscow and New Delhi following the Putin-Modi bilateral summit. In the joint statement, the two countries underscored the importance of military-technical cooperation and pledged to “maintain the momentum” of joint military cooperation activities.

Notably, the statement mentioned the changing nature of defense cooperation – in what appeared to be a “response” to allegations that India had been “drifting away” from Russia as its largest defense partner in terms of volume of supplies. “Responding to India’s quest for self-sufficiency, the partnership is reorienting presently to joint research and development, co-development and joint production of advanced defense technology and systems,” it said.

Moscow and New Delhi are currently collaborating on a series of defense projects, including the licensed production of T-90 tanks, Su-30MKI fighters, BrahMos missiles, and other weapons systems. Days ahead of Modi’s visit, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s defense-export agency, announced that it was commencing production of 3VBM17 ‘Mango’ rounds in the South Asian country under the ‘Make In India’ initiative. The 125mm projectiles are designed to be fired from the main gun of India’s T-72 and T-90 tanks.

Rostec also announced that another Indo-Russian joint venture had produced and delivered 35,000 AK-203 Kalashnikov rifles to the Indian Ministry of Defense.

Earlier, commenting on Modi’s Moscow visit, US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti said he respects India’s desire for strategic autonomy. “But in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy,” he claimed. New Delhi then lashed out at Garcetti’s comment, saying the India-US relationship allows for mutual respect and the ability to “agree to disagree” on certain matters.

https://www.rt.com/india/601678-india-responds-to-us-criticism/