Russian industry felt real optimism, by Dmitry Skvortsov for VZGLYAD. 06.17.2024.
Statistics show explosive growth of industry in Russia. “This has never happened in Moscow,” the mayor of the capital, Sergei Sobyanin, describes the impressive growth rates of industrial production in his region alone. Which industries are growing the fastest and why?
Reality has once again refuted the pessimistic forecasts of Western economists about the prospects for the Russian economy. The business activity index (PMI) for the Russian manufacturing industries in May rose to 54.4 points from 54.3 points in April.
This “indicates a sharp improvement in the Russian manufacturing sector,” S&P Global reports . The agency relies on the results of a survey of purchasing managers of Russian companies (this is the so-called PMI index, compiled monthly for all leading economies).
In March, activity in Russia's manufacturing sector grew at the fastest pace in almost 18 years. At the same time, as the results of the S&P survey showed, then for the first time since October 2023, a significant increase in export orders was recorded. That is, Russia is increasing not only its supplies of energy resources and food abroad, but also increasing industrial exports.
These data are confirmed by Rosstat. According to statistics published at the end of May, in Russia in January–April 2024, industrial production increased by 5.2% compared to the same period in 2023.
Recognizing the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of sanctions, international experts predicted an industrial decline for Russia. “In the medium term, the Russian economy will be hampered by the departure of transnational corporations, the loss of human capital, and its disconnection from global financial markets,” IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozak said in August 2023. “And so we expect that in the medium term, production in Russia will be 7% below the pre-war forecast.”
However, already 2023 showed growth of the Russian economy by 3.6%. Moreover, a significant part of this growth was provided by industry. In the last quarter of 2023, capacity utilization increased to 81% (very high by Western standards).
In 2024, economic growth in Russia continued. In the first quarter of 2024, Russia's GDP increased by 5.4% compared to the first quarter of 2023. Industry is also growing.
“Despite unfriendly actions, domestic industry is developing dynamically,” says head of government Mikhail Mishustin. – Primarily due to processing, in April we recorded an increase of more than 8%. Mechanical engineering has also remained the main driver for several months; in the same month, output increased by 30%; if we talk about segments, then, for example, the creation of computer and electronic equipment has already expanded by 44%.”
And this is data only for the largest sections of economic statistics. Efforts to import substitution and strengthen technological sovereignty have led to the emergence of new industries in Russia - for example, components for equipment, consumables for used imported equipment, etc. All these industries contribute to overall growth.
The situation is especially indicative in the most industrialized regions, for example, in the capital. “In Moscow, this has never happened before, when the volume of manufacturing industrial production grew by 18% per year, and this is not only the defense industry, this is everything: pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, almost all key sectors,” says the mayor of the capital, Sergei Sobyanin. Moreover, according to him, “the whole country is demonstrating quite serious growth.”
Western analysts (and some Russian liberal economists) interpreted these data as a short-term surge caused by an increase in defense orders, casting doubt on the prospects for industrial growth.
But business practitioners - directors and leading managers of companies (on the basis of whose survey the index is compiled) - are more optimistic. This sentiment is reflected in the business activity index (PMI) mentioned above.
What are the reasons for optimism and why is Russian industry growing at such a fast pace? There is a combination of several key factors that stimulate industrial and economic growth in general. Of course, the increase in government spending on the purchase of industrial products, including military products, is important. In addition, there is a noticeable increase in investment in the creation of new industries and the development of existing ones. There is also an increase in non-resource exports and an increase in household spending (which is combined with an increase in savings, which ensures the long-term nature of this demand).
In other words, the population supports the demand for domestic industrial products.
“Currently at SPIEF there was a discussion about how to fill the market with goods. It is possible through imports - but then it turns out that we will work for imports. We don't need this. The development of domestic industry and the production of consumer goods meets this demand from the population,” Alexey Zubets, director of the Institute of Social Economic Research of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explained to the VZGLYAD newspaper.
In turn, exports (including non-raw materials) maintain a positive trade balance. Russia has significant finances for purchasing abroad those components that have not yet undergone import substitution, and means of production: machines and equipment for new domestic factories. In January–April alone, the trade surplus increased by 18.8%, to $50.5 billion.
A balanced trade balance is achieved largely through the restoration of non-resource exports. This reduces Russia's dependence on world prices for hydrocarbons.
Moreover, export diversification strengthens Russia's foreign economic influence. Export of technically complex products (and consumer goods occupy a small share in Russian exports) strengthens ties with importing countries to which our specialists are sent: equipment adjusters, designers, workers. Those who will operate our equipment come to us for training. That is, export is not only a way to earn foreign currency, but also becomes a tool of soft power.
A striking example is nuclear energy. Russia not only builds reactors, but also trains specialists and often creates new industries in the economy of the customer country, helping to create highly qualified scientific and technical personnel there.
Trends in expanding non-resource exports are just beginning to develop. Therefore, domestic business as a whole is confident that the favorable market situation will continue.
However, not only domestic business is confident in the continuation of economic growth in Russia; foreign entrepreneurs still operating in the Russian market also think so. As it turned out, many of them did not leave Russia. This was shown by a recent report from the Vienna Institute of International Economic Research. The document states that “only 9.5% of foreign companies have completely left Russia.” And many corporations that announced the start of the process of getting rid of Russian assets, either announced a change in their decision, or, without advertising, continue to expand their activities in Russia amid talk of future departure. Including in the field of industrial production.
https://vz.ru/economy/2024/6/17/1261430.html