Donbass: Zelensky chooses the direction of the main attack
The transfer of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the rupture of diplomatic relations with Russia bring trouble closer. Sergey Aksenov
Former Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Valeriy Chaly, urged to prepare for the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia.
The statement of the diplomat was made against the background of the transfer of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Donbass. The network publishes video footage: self-propelled guns, tanks, military vehicles "Ural" on railway platforms are driven from Dnepropetrovsk and Mariupol.
The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a breakthrough was told by a serviceman of the People's Militia of the DPR Slava "Kot": “The defector, whom we recently received at Yelenovka, confirmed our guesses. A blow is being prepared on our side. Most likely, Dokuchaevsk, Yelenovka and across the LPR - to separate. "
“The accumulation of technology is the main prerequisite for such a forecast. We see how they bring her up in echelons. In the spring or, perhaps, in the summer, when the "brilliant green" goes, I think they will trample, - he added. - There is permission to open fire, but it is stupid to suppress enemy firing positions. In reply".
Recently, attacks on positions in the DPR and LPR from the Ukrainian Armed Forces have become more frequent. So, on March 8, the servicemen of the 3rd battalion of the 28th Ombr fired at Staromikhaylovka from the BMP-2 and grenade launchers, firing thirty shells. Also, the fire was fired from small arms.
How far will Ukraine go in the new escalation of the conflict in the DPR and LPR
In the Debaltsevo direction, servicemen of the 59th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from positions in the Luhansk area opened fire from small arms at positions in the LPR in the area of Nizhny Lozovoy. The deployment of military equipment in the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues, in violation of additional measures.
“The footage of the military equipment transported to the Donbas is filmed for a reason,” says military expert Alexei Leonkov . - And in order to have some kind of psychological impact on the defenders of Donbass. The main task of the whipped-up hysteria is to demoralize the defending troops.
You should be aware that from 2017 to 2021, the number of mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed in the area of the contact line in Donbas remained almost unchanged and ranged from 10 to 12 at different times. They were covered by two artillery brigades of the Ukrainian army.
Other information is interesting. Namely, anti-aircraft brigades with S-300 and Buk-M1 appeared at the disposal of the headquarters in Kramatorsk. They also have a regiment armed with the Bayraktar UAV. This is the peculiarity of the current aggravation of the situation.
"SP": - That is still not a false alarm?
- The rotation of the Ukrainian mechanized brigades should be closely monitored, because their ranks may include quite fresh forces that have undergone training and retraining in training centers under the guidance of foreign instructors.
The units that are on the line of contact are already staffed according to NATO standards, have equipment, weapons, and some of them know how to interact with each other. Less is known about the armament of the volunteer battalions on the second line.
We know that the 44th Independent Artillery Brigade brought up heavy weapons - 152 mm caliber. There are Msta-B, Hyacinth and 100mm MT-12 cannons. It is clear from the intensity of the shelling that these barrels are working. There is also a brigade working on heavy 120mm mortars. Their arrivals are recorded. That is, they gathered a lot of strength there.
"SP": - In what directions can you expect a blow?
- Possible directions of breakthroughs in the DPR can be Dokuchaevsk, Starobeshevo. In the LPR - on Debaltseve. But for this, the Armed Forces will have to concentrate forces there on the eve of the breakthrough. Another sign of a breakthrough will be the active work of electronic warfare systems, which Ukraine has repeatedly used fragmentarily. And the activity of their UAVs.
"SP": - When can this happen? When will the roads dry?
- The army does not use highways. There are certain areas that have been worked out. Yes, the weather is unpredictable now. But the beginning of the operation is not determined by the weather, but by those who command the Armed Forces. In addition, in the case of the Armed Forces, there is also an external command.
In general, Ukraine has driven troops back and forth many times. But this time she's driving a lot more troops. Therefore, everyone paid attention to this. We realized that it could end in a real war. The intensity of the shelling is comparable to 2015-2016.
"SP": - Apparently, Russia will have to concentrate certain forces near the border to cool the hot heads of the "lads"? In February, motorized rifle exercises were held in the Rostov region ...
- In the Southern Military District, the winter period of personnel training is now coming to an end. Therefore, the exercises there are going according to plan and are absolutely not connected with the events taking place in the Donbass. Although many people think that this is some kind of demonstration of force on the Russian side. No, it’s not like that.
Another thing is that 250 thousand people serve in the Southern Military District. And they are all in constant combat readiness. In the event of a "negative scenario", as our president said, they can come to the aid of the residents of Donbass, among whom there are our fellow citizens.
That is, the situation is very ambiguous. It can collapse into turbulence. But when this will happen, no one knows. Everything is developing as in 1941. Then, as now, there was information about the beginning of hostilities from defectors. But the war all the same began suddenly.
"SP": - If, nevertheless, the offensive of the Armed Forces takes place, what could be the result?
- Let me remind you that in 2015, 14 mechanized brigades, two tank brigades, and three artillery brigades took part in the hostilities from the Ukrainian side. This is more than the focus now. And all the same, they failed to conquer Donbass.
But there is also a new moment - Ukraine has opened its airspace to NATO countries. Military aid to Kiev goes unimpeded. After all, under Trump, each tranche was delayed, each time it was necessary to push the decision to legislators. There will be no problems with large-caliber ammunition, the reserves of which are in abundance on the territory of Eastern Europe.
Direct support for NATO armies is unlikely. They still understand that their head-on collision with Russia is the Third World War, and not at all a local conflict. However, if a command comes from Washington, then Ukraine will attack. The situation is alarming.
Has Ukraine found a new patron?
“After the second Minsk agreements, another attempt was made to transfer this conflict to a frozen regime,” says Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology. - New measures were taken to ensure the ceasefire, but they did not work. We need new documents and methods. In the meantime, negotiations in the Trilateral Group have been stopped.
"SP": - Now Russia, if necessary, has an additional weighty reason for intervention, in the event of a military exacerbation - massive certification. In LDNR, almost half a million people received our passports ...
- I would not call the certification in the Donbass massive. It would be like this if at least half of the local residents received Russian documents. Now it is still less. There is something to strive for. But this is becoming an increasingly important factor in conflict situations. In the meantime, we are observing situational skirmishes, soldiers and civilians are dying.
"SP": - Ukrainian diplomats declare the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia. This has already happened in the case of Georgia. There it was the result of a five-day war caused by Saakashvili's attack on South Ossetia. Kiev wants the same?
- Nothing good can be done by such decisions. But if Ukraine did not go to the breaking of diplomatic relations during active hostilities in 2014-2015, it would be strange and illogical to do so now.